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The $23.6B Bitcoin Miscalculation: Inside Nakamoto Inc.’s Costly Treasury Collapse

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Nexo Partners with Bakkt for US Crypto Exchange and Yield Programs

TLDR:

  • Nakamoto Inc. purchased 5,398 BTC near Bitcoin’s $118K peak, now sitting on $270M in unrealized losses.
  • The $23.6B market cap wipeout marks one of the steepest corporate Bitcoin treasury collapses in crypto history.
  • A reverse takeover structure helped launch $NAKA’s Bitcoin strategy but accelerated losses as sentiment shifted fast.
  • The 99% drop in 280 days is pushing institutional investors to reconsider single large Bitcoin purchases near cycle tops.

$23.6 billion in market value has been wiped from Nakamoto Inc. ($NAKA) in just 280 days. The company purchased 5,398 Bitcoin near the asset’s all-time high of $118,000.

That single decision now carries $270 million in unrealized losses. The market capitalization collapse of 99% has stunned both retail and institutional observers.

This ranks among the most damaging corporate Bitcoin treasury bets on record.

How a Bold Bitcoin Bet Became a $23.6B Collapse

The scale of the $23.6 billion market cap erasure did not happen overnight. Nakamoto Inc. built its Bitcoin reserve strategy through a reverse takeover structure.

That approach generated early momentum and brief investor enthusiasm around the stock. As Bitcoin retreated from peak levels, however, the company’s valuation followed in dramatic fashion.

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Buying 5,398 BTC at approximately $118,000 per coin left the company extremely vulnerable to any price correction. There was no phased entry, no cost-averaging approach, and no visible downside buffer in place.

When prices moved against the position, the losses compounded quickly across 280 days. The result was a near-total destruction of shareholder value.

Analyst @wiseadvicesumit captured the situation plainly, writing that “conviction is powerful” but “timing is brutal.”

The post described this as what happens when “number go up forever” meets reality. That framing resonated widely across crypto communities and financial circles. Many observers pointed to the entry price as the single most critical failure in the entire strategy.

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The $270M Loss That Is Reshaping Corporate Crypto Strategy

The $270 million sitting in unrealized losses represents more than a balance sheet problem for Nakamoto Inc. It signals a broader warning for any corporate treasury considering large, concentrated Bitcoin positions.

Crypto commentator @nice_investment described the collapse as “one of the most expensive timing errors in crypto history.” That assessment is difficult to argue against, given the numbers involved.

The use of a reverse takeover to establish the Bitcoin reserve drew significant attention at launch. It positioned Nakamoto Inc. as an aggressive, conviction-driven institutional player in the crypto space.

Yet the same structure that amplified early excitement also accelerated the downside when sentiment shifted. The $23.6 billion erasure now follows that story wherever it is told.

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Corporate treasury teams across the industry are watching this outcome carefully. Single large purchases near market cycle peaks have historically produced poor returns across multiple Bitcoin cycles.

This case adds a striking new data point to that pattern. Going forward, phased entry strategies and defined risk thresholds are likely to gain more favor among institutions entering the Bitcoin market.

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$1.3B Error Sparks Probe Into Weak Financial Oversight

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$1.3B Error Sparks Probe Into Weak Financial Oversight


Bithumb CEO admited past mistakes following the latest 620,000 BTC blunder which has prompting further investigations into system flaws.

South Korea’s financial authorities are facing criticism after failing to spot major flaws in Bithumb’s systems that led to an unprecedented Bitcoin error.

Despite repeated inspections by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS), a vulnerability remained that allowed a single employee to trigger massive coin transfers without detection.

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Bithumb Crypto Mishap

According to Rep. Kang Min-guk of the People Power Party, the FSC reviewed Bithumb once in 2022 and twice in 2025, while the FSS carried out three inspections during the same period. Despite this, none identified discrepancies between actual holdings and accounting records.

On February 6, a promotional event went wrong when users were mistakenly credited with 2,000 BTC each instead of coins worth 2,000 won (worth approximately $1.38). This error caused the system to register a total of 620,000 bitcoins being “distributed” to users, which is far more than the exchange’s actual holdings of about 42,800 BTC.

As reported by The Korea Times, the country’s lawmakers said the mistake exposes deeper weaknesses in internal controls, ledger management, and regulatory supervision. Rep. Han Chang-min of the Social Democratic Party questioned whether regulators’ inspections were largely procedural and noted attempts to place responsibility on Bithumb.

The FSS has extended its probe through February and is investigating potential violations involving investor protection, anti-money laundering (AML), and system flaws.

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Bithumb CEO Lee Jae-won acknowledged two smaller prior errors that were recovered, which the FSS will also review.

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Meanwhile, an emergency team from the authorities and the Digital Asset eXchange Alliance (DAXA) is reviewing asset verification and internal controls at some of the country’s other prominent exchanges, such as Upbit, Coinone, Korbit, and GOPAX. Results are expected to influence both DAXA’s self-regulatory rules and future crypto legislation.

Lost and Found

The latest setback comes a month after the Gwangju District Prosecutors’ Office reported that Bitcoin seized in a criminal case had gone missing, but authorities have now recovered all 40 billion won worth of the lost cryptocurrency. Prosecutors said the 320.8 bitcoins were returned from the hacker’s electronic wallet to the office’s wallet on February 17, apparently voluntarily, after the hacker was unable to cash them out.

The coins had originally been confiscated from the daughter of a couple arrested for operating an illegal overseas gambling site worth 390 billion won between 2018 and 2021, who had converted their criminal proceeds into Bitcoin. Officials said the BTC were lost last August when prosecutors accidentally accessed a phishing site while checking the wallet, which exposed the funds.

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Authorities have been tracking the hacker and monitoring domestic and international exchanges to prevent further losses.

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Bitwise CIO Warns the L1 Narrative May Be Dead Wrong

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Bitwise CIO Warns the L1 Narrative May Be Dead Wrong

The idea that Layer 1 blockspace has become a commodity may be premature, according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, who argues that institutional behavior tells a very different story.

Hougan pushed back on what he described as an “increasing view in crypto that L1 blockspace is a commodity.

Institutional Capital Clusters on Top-Tier Chains as On-Chain Prediction Markets Redefine Information Edge

According to the Bitwise executive, if infrastructure were truly commoditized, capital and development would be evenly distributed across chains.

Instead, the vast majority of institutional building is taking place on very few chains (Ethereum, Solana, etc.).

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“…basically, zero interest in building on the twentieth largest L1,” he explained.

Networks like Ethereum and Solana continue to dominate mindshare, liquidity, and developer activity, even as newer Layer 1s compete aggressively on fees and throughput. Hougan offered a simpler explanation for today’s low-fee environment.

“Top-tier L1s built more bandwidth than the market can use at the moment, so fees are rock-bottom.”

However, he cautioned that the current equilibrium may not last.

“The real question is what happens when demand scales as stablecoins/tokenization/DeFi grow into the trillions,” he wrote. “I’m not sure we know the answer yet.”

If blockchain-based financial infrastructure expands to support trillions of dollars in tokenized assets and on-chain settlement, today’s excess capacity could quickly tighten. Such an outcome could potentially reshape the economics of leading networks.

Prediction Markets as a “Reg FD for the Internet Age,” Hougan Argues

Beyond infrastructure, Hougan also weighed in on another contentious topic: insider trading concerns surrounding crypto-based prediction markets.

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“The insider trading worries about prediction markets are basically backwards,” he wrote. “Prediction markets are a markets-based extension of Reg FD, putting us all on a level playing field.”

Regulation Fair Disclosure (Reg FD) was designed to prevent selective disclosure of material information to favored investors.

Hougan argues that prediction markets extend that principle by publicly pricing probabilities around major events.

He reflected on how hedge funds historically extracted “alpha” during pivotal legislative moments in Washington, D.C., hiring lobbyists and consultants to gather private intelligence from Capitol Hill.

Today, however, retail investors can track live probabilities on platforms like Polymarket, including markets tied to the potential passage of legislation such as the Clarity Act.

“For liquid markets, those odds are probably as good or better than anything the lobbying complex can provide. It’s a more even playing field,” Hougan said.

He acknowledged that risks remain, citing the need to aggressively police insider trading in prediction markets. Still, he emphasized that the impact balance is dramatically positive and egalitarian.

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Therefore, there are two debates here:

  • Whether L1s are commoditized and
  • Whether prediction markets enable unfair advantages

Both debates revolve around how power is distributed in financial systems. According to Matt Hougan, institutional concentration on top-tier chains reflects economic reality rather than pure commoditization.

Meanwhile, open prediction markets represent a rare instance where information asymmetry may actually be shrinking.

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SEC Tells Broker-Dealers Stablecoins Can Count Toward Net Capital

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US Government, United States, Stablecoin

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) staff last week clarified that broker-dealers can apply a 2% “haircut” to their stablecoin holdings without objection from the SEC.

Previously, broker-dealers were uncertain whether to apply a 100% haircut to their dollar-pegged stablecoins, meaning that they did not count the tokens toward their net capital under existing regulations.

The clarification came in the form of a posting by the staff of the SEC’s Division of Trading and Markets as a “Frequently Asked Questions Relating to Crypto Asset Activities and Distributed Ledger Technology.”

In response, Commissioner Hester Peirce said: In my view, a 100% haircut would be unnecessarily punitive given the underlying reserve assets that back payment stablecoins.”

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The SEC requires broker-dealers to maintain minimum levels of net capital to meet financial obligations and absorb potential losses from market downturns and volatility, according to the staff’s clarification. 

US Government, United States, Stablecoin
The SEC’s response to frequently asked questions clarifying the 2% haircut rule for stablecoins held by broker-dealers. Source: SEC

For example, if a broker-dealer holds $100 million in stablecoins, a 2% haircut allows them to count $98 million toward their net capital requirements. Celebrating the clarification as positive for the financial system, Peirce said

“Stablecoins are essential to transacting on blockchain rails. Using stablecoins will make it feasible for broker-dealers to engage in a broader range of business activities relating to tokenized securities and other crypto assets.”  

The clarification means broker-dealers can hold stablecoins without worrying about excess net capital requirements, and can treat the tokens similarly to money market funds, vehicles that hold low-risk cash equivalents like US Treasurys and certificates of deposit. 

In a social media post over the weekend, Marc Baumann, CEO of crypto intelligence company 51, called the SEC staff communication “a big deal,” adding that “Wall Street can now actually hold and use stablecoins without destroying their capital ratios.”

Related: SEC leaders seek to clarify how tokenized securities interact with existing regulation

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Stablecoins gain traction in the United States, but not all US officials are convinced

The stablecoin market cap recently hit a snag, falling by about $6 billion from the December 2025 peak of over $300 billion.

However, the market still has a $295 billion market cap, which has steadily grown since 2023, according to data from RWA.XYZ.

United States President Donald Trump signed the GENIUS stablecoin bill into law in July 2025, which was considered a landmark moment for the crypto industry.

US Government, United States, Stablecoin
President Trump signs the GENIUS bill into law. Source: Associated Press

The stablecoin market capitalization was just north of $252 billion at the time of signing and surged following the passage of the bill, according to data from RWA.XYZ.

Despite the meteoric surge in stablecoins and their implications for US dollar dominance in global financial markets, Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, maintains that stablecoins and crypto have no real use cases.

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“I could send any one of you $5 with Venmo, or PayPal, or Zelle, so what is it that this magical stablecoin can do? ” he said on Thursday.

Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026