The AfD Is Rising. Germany’s Political Center Is Failing.

The AfD has used Merz’s flip flop on the debt brake against him and is questioning defense spending on Ukraine.

Upon taking office in May 2025, a little over a year ago, Merz promised to revive Germany’s stagnant economy and increase defense spending to position the country as Europe’s de facto military leader. An antagonistic Russia and an unreliable America have left Germany with few alternatives. German businesses are suffering with high costs, American tariffs and intensifying competition from China.

Merz also made another defining promise: to beat back the AfD and restore the centrist CDU’s  claim to being the true conservative party in Germany. Instead, the election in Saxony-Anhalt will amplify calls, including from within his own party, for him to step aside.

Merz’s blunders over the past year cannot be dismissed as the mistakes of a political novice. He is a seasoned operator who, unlike many of his German peers, has extensive experience in the private sector. He promised an ambitious program of reforms to tackle Germany’s welfare and pension programs, but his proposals were too tepid and too late. And his poor communication style has also overshadowed his efforts on curbing migration and his diplomatic campaign across Europe to sustain support for Ukraine.