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the past, present, and future of crypto in 401(k) plans

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Happy Thursday, advisors!

In today’s newsletter, David Lawant, head of research at Anchorage Digital reviews crypto’s evolving role in 401(k)s, as regulatory clarity is poised to open up investments.

Then, in Ask an Expert, Kevin Tam answers questions about crypto adoption around the world looking at the recent 13F filings.

Happy Reading.

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Modernizing the nest egg: the past, present, and future of crypto in 401(k) plans

The United States retirement system is about to reach a structural inflection point. For over a decade, the $10 trillion 401(k) market remained insulated from crypto assets due to regulatory ambiguity and litigation concerns. However, a decisive shift in federal policy is transforming 2026 into the year of integration, which in the long term will move crypto from the periphery into the institutional core of the American retirement system.

The regulatory shift from “extreme care,” to “principled neutrality,” to “democratizing access.”

The Department of Labor (DOL) is responsible for making sure that ERISA, the 1974 federal law that sets minimum standards for most voluntarily established retirement and health plans in private industry, is at the epicenter of this issue. In March 2022, it issued Compliance Assistance Release No. 2022-01. This release created a de facto ban on crypto assets in retirement plans by mandating that fiduciaries exercise “extreme care” and threatening targeted investigations for those engaging with crypto assets.

On May 28, 2025, the DOL formally abandoned the “extreme care” standard with the Compliance Assistance Release No. 2025-01. This release formally rescinded the restrictive 2022 guidance, stating that the previous stance had “deviated from the requirements of ERISA” and the department’s “historically neutral, principled-based approach”. The rescission re-established the legal standard set by the Supreme Court which holds that fiduciaries must act prudently based on a contextual evaluation of risk and return, rather than adhering to categorical bans on specific asset classes.

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But the real catalyst came with President Donald Trump’s Executive Order 14330, signed on August 7, 2025. Titled “Democratizing Access to Alternative Assets for 401(k) Investors,” this directive fundamentally redefined the government’s stance, shifting from a cautionary tone to an affirmative mandate for facilitating access to “alternative assets,” which the order explicitly defined to include crypto assets among more established classes such as private equity and real estate.

Upcoming DOL guidance on alternative assets and what adoption could look like

This past January, the DOL submitted a proposed rule that would clarify its position on alternative assets and the appropriate fiduciary process. The document is not public yet and is still sitting with the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), but given that the 180-day White House deadline has already expired, there is expectation that it could be released for public comment quite soon.

For crypto specifically, attention hinges on the design of the upcoming fiduciary safe harbor. This regulatory ‘’checklist’ is intended to immunize fiduciaries from liability for investment losses, provided specific standards are met. Its critical pillars are expected to include qualified custody requirements, liquidity constraints and portfolio allocation caps.

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Even after the major regulatory hurdle is cleared, however, broad adoption will likely unfold more akin to a glacial shift over several years than like a speculative spark.

The evolution from high-friction Self-Directed Brokerage Accounts (SDBAs) toward seamless inclusion in core menus and Target Date Funds relies on myriad critical factors, including fiduciary buy-in and platform compatibility. Investment consultants like Mercer, Aon and Willis Towers Watson serve as critical gatekeepers, and although they tend to move cautiously, allocation to alternatives is emerging as a top-of-mind issue. Simultaneously, the industry must bridge the gap between legacy ‘mutual fund plumbing’ and digital asset infrastructure to ensure 401(k) platforms can seamlessly handle the new asset class.

Still, the 401(k) market is critical not only due to its sheer size but also because of its unique flow profile acts as a mechanical volatility dampener. Because retirement participants are price-inelastic, their bi-weekly, non-discretionary payroll contributions provide a stabilizing bid that persists regardless of short-term market sentiment. This effect is reinforced by managed accounts and target-date funds (TDFs), which institutionalize “buying the dip” by automatically purchasing assets during market corrections to restore target weights.

Unlike the high-velocity debut of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the move into retirement accounts will likely be an accumulating wave that will build over years. Yet the sheer size and unique stability of this investor base make 2026 the year crypto’s role in the American nest egg became an undeniable, permanent fixture.

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David Lawant, head of research, Anchorage Digital


Ask an Expert

Q: What do Norges Bank and overseas hedge funds have in common?

Overseas hedge funds from Hong Kong and the UK are showing a massive appetite for regulated exposure, heavily accumulating spot bitcoin ETFs to build their portfolios. Laurore Ltd. has newly emerged with a 100% portfolio concentration IBIT.

In Pension fund growth, South Korea’s National Pension Service increased its MSTR exposure to $93.6 million, far outpacing the $3.5 million position held by Investment Management of Ontario (IMCO).

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In Q4, the Central Bank of Norway opened a new position of MSTR valued at $536 million.

Q: Is Canada’s bitcoin bet starting to cool off?

National Bank of Canada cut its stake in MSTR by 51% in Q4 2025, reducing shares simultaneously with the stock’s price drop. The bank’s position dropped from $659 million to $152 million in this quarter. Notably, the bank also holds $52.4 million in put options on MSTR.

Q: What does the global regulator roadmap tell us about bitcoin’s trajectory into 2026 and beyond?

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The direction is towards legalization. Regulatory timelines show a coordinated global build-out with MiCAR implemented across the EU in June 2025, the GENUIS Act signed in the US in July 2025, and HK, Singapore andthe UAE all establishing formal digital asset frameworks. Looking further, Canadian Securities Administrators are expected to propose amendments enabling broader tokenization of securities and ETFs in Q4 2026.

Driven by regulatory clarity and the continued adoption of digital asset ETFs, institutional investors view them as strategic assets for diversification and long-term growth.

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Kevin Tam, digital asset research specialist


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Crypto World

Tesla (TSLA) Stock Faces Eighth Consecutive Weekly Decline Amid Delivery Shortfall

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Quick Summary

  • Tesla’s Q1 2026 electric vehicle deliveries reached 358,023 units, falling below analyst projections of 370,000.
  • Shares have declined 23% in 2026 and are approaching their eighth consecutive weekly decline.
  • The automaker manufactured 408,300 vehicles while delivering only 358,023, resulting in an unprecedented inventory surplus.
  • Derivative trading patterns that historically bolstered share prices have weakened throughout 2026.
  • Wall Street forecasts Tesla will experience negative free cash flow exceeding $6 billion during the current year.

Tesla’s first quarter 2026 delivery figures came in below expectations, accompanied by a concerning accumulation of unsold vehicles.


TSLA Stock Card
Tesla, Inc., TSLA

The electric vehicle manufacturer reported deliveries of 358,023 units during the opening quarter, undershooting analyst consensus of 370,000. While this represents a nominal 6% increase compared to the first quarter of 2025, that baseline itself reflected a 13% year-over-year decline, making the comparison less meaningful.

Tesla manufactured 408,300 vehicles during the three-month period while delivering 358,023 units. This differential of approximately 50,000 vehicles marks the company’s largest ever accumulation of unsold inventory.

JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman highlighted the inventory accumulation as a significant drain on free cash flow, noting that undelivered vehicles consume capital until they reach customers.

Cash Flow Challenges Mount

The situation is complicated by timing factors. Tesla increased its capital expenditure forecast to $20 billion for 2026, a substantial jump from $8.5 billion spent in 2025. The majority of this investment targets artificial intelligence infrastructure and humanoid robotics manufacturing.

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Wall Street analysts compiled by Visible Alpha project Tesla will generate negative free cash flow surpassing $6 billion in the current year, followed by additional negative cash flow exceeding $1.2 billion in 2027.

William Blair analyst Jed Dorsheimer noted “global EV demand ex-China remains under pressure,” suggesting that Tesla is “actively sacrificing its EV business in favor of a fully autonomous future.”

Market headwinds extend beyond Tesla. Intensifying competition, tariff policies from the Trump administration, and the elimination of the $7,500 federal electric vehicle tax credit have dampened demand throughout the sector.

The Model 3 and Model Y accounted for 97% of total Q1 deliveries, underscoring the company’s continued dependence on these two product lines.

Derivative Market Activity Weakens

Beyond fundamental factors, technical market dynamics have shifted. GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson has monitored options market activity surrounding Tesla and observed that retail investors have reduced aggressive call option purchasing in 2026.

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Historically, substantial call buying compelled market makers to hedge positions by acquiring shares. This purchasing activity generated what market participants term a “gamma squeeze,” creating a self-reinforcing cycle that elevated share prices independent of underlying business performance.

Johnson contends this technical support mechanism has diminished, exposing the stock more directly to fundamental performance. He maintains a Sell rating with a $25.28 price target—significantly below consensus estimates and representing a contrarian position.

Nevertheless, his analysis of options market dynamics provides relevant insight into technical influences.

Entering Friday’s session, Tesla traded at $344.82 during premarket hours, declining approximately 0.2%. The stock currently trades at roughly 170 times projected 2026 earnings.

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Full-year 2025 deliveries totaled 1.64 million units, down from 1.79 million in 2024.

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Covenant AI Leaves Bittensor Amid Decentralization Concerns, TAO Drops 18%

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Covenant AI Leaves Bittensor Amid Decentralization Concerns, TAO Drops 18%

Bittensor subnet developer Covenant AI said Friday that it is leaving the decentralized artificial intelligence network, accusing Bittensor of operating under a concentrated governance structure that undermines its decentralization claims.

In a Friday post on X, Covenant AI founder Sam Dare said the team could no longer build on or raise for Bittensor because its governance was not meaningfully distributed.

“It is decentralization theatre,” Dare said. “Jacob Steeves maintains effective control over the triumvirate, resists any meaningful transfer of authority, and deploys changes unilaterally whenever he chooses, without process and without consensus.”

The dispute cuts to the core of Bittensor’s decentralization pitch. Covenant AI alleged that founder Jacob Steeves, known as Const, exerts outsized influence over governance and network operations, an accusation Steeves denied.

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Bittensor’s governance documents describe a transitional system in which a “Triumvirate” of Opentensor Foundation employees holds root permissions alongside a senate, rather than a fully open governance model.

Source: Covenant AI

Covenant AI claims subnet emissions were suspended, Bittensor founder denies allegations

Covenant AI said Steeves had taken several actions against the project in recent weeks, including suspending emissions to its subnet, restricting moderation powers in community channels and applying “direct economic pressure” through visible token sales during the dispute.

Steeves rejected the allegations, claiming that he cannot suspend subnet emissions and that he does not hold “any privilege beyond what normal TAO holders have.”

In a Friday X response, Steeves said he sold some of his “alpha holdings on his three subnets because they were not running and were on near 100% burn code,” which changed the emissions the same way “all buys and sells on Bittensor do.”

Source: Const

Steeves also denied stripping Covenant AI of its moderation rights, saying he only temporarily removed the team’s ability to delete posts before restoring it. He added that large token sales would have been visible onchain.

“Less than 1% of what i had invested in his teams. Visibility is impossible to avoid in my position. I reserve my right to buy and sell tokens which is what underpins the entire system of dTao,” he added.

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Bittensor previously garnered mainstream attention after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang praised the decentralized training run on Bittensor Subnet 3, calling Covenant’s milestone of pre-training the largest decentralized LLM a “remarkable technical achievement,” during the All-In Podcast on March 19.

Related: Bittensor’s TAO price may plunge 40% within five weeks: Fractal data

TAO’s sales volume skyrockets ahead of Covenant AI’s departure announcement

The governance dispute also weighed on Bittensor’s (TAO) token, which was down around 18% over the previous 24 hours as of Friday morning, according to market data.

TAO/USD, 1-week chart. Source: CoinMarketCap

However, sell volume on TAO rose to its highest level since December 2024, about 24 hours before Covenant AI announced its departure. “If you think that’s a coincidence, you don’t understand the game you’re playing. This was a calculated exit and execution,” wrote crypto analyst Ardi in a Friday X post.

Cointelegraph reached out to Covenant AI and Bittensor for comment but had not received a response by publication.

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Source: Ardi

The dispute raises wider concerns for projects striving for decentralization, according to David and Daniil Liberman, co-creators of the decentralized layer-1 blockchain Gonka protocol.

“Decentralized networks that want serious builders have to answer one question: can the infrastructure you build on be used against you? If the answer is yes, the decentralization is cosmetic,” they told Cointelegraph.

Magazine: Michael Heinrich loves AI coins Goat, Turbo & Aethir… but not TAO