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The record breaking stats from BTC’s capitulation on Thursday signal a bottom is near

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Total Supply in Loss (Glassnode)

Bitcoin’s Feb. 5 collapse will go down as one of the most historic selloffs on record. Below are the key statistics that help define the event and indicate how much further there may be to fall.

The bitcoin price started the day near $73,000 and fell to a low around $62,000, a drop — or, as some market participants call it, a candle — of more than $10,000. The day’s 14% decline was the largest single-day drop since November 2022, during the implosion of crypto exchange FTX.

The Fear and Greed Index dropped into single digits, a level seen only a handful of times in bitcoin’s 17-year history. At the same time, bitcoin was the third most oversold it has ever been on the RSI, an indicator that measures the speed and change of price movements.

Supply in profit and loss

The circulating supply in loss, meaning the number of coins that last moved at prices higher than the market price, surged to almost 10 million BTC. That is the fourth-highest level ever, comparable with the 2015, 2019 and 2022 bear-market bottoms.

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Total Supply in Loss (Glassnode)

Total Supply in Loss (Glassnode)

Another measure, the amount of long-term holders’ circulating supply that is at a loss, reached 4.6 million BTC. At the lows of previous bear markets, the figure exceeded 5 million BTC, suggesting this metric is approaching, but has not yet fully matched, prior extremes.

Total Supply in Loss by LTHs (Glassnode)

Total Supply in Loss by LTHs (Glassnode)

Supply in profit and supply in loss have nearly converged, a condition that has historically aligned with the bottom of major market declines. At present, roughly 10 million BTC sit in profit and 10 million BTC sit in loss.

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While nobody knows for certain whether the bottom is in for bitcoin, history suggests it is likely close, especially with bitcoin already recovering toward $68,000.

Still, market participants may be waiting for bitcoin to test its 200-week moving average, currently near $58,011.

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Crypto World

Oil Rose 3% to Open the Week: Here’s What Moved the Market on Monday

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Oil prices jumped more than 3% on Monday, pushing Brent crude above $116 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark, climbed to roughly $102 per barrel.

The latest rise comes as the US-Israel war on Iran entered its fifth week with no signs of abating.

Oil Extends Its War-Fueled Rally 

Several escalatory developments over the weekend fueled the surge. President Donald Trump told the Financial Times he could possibly seize Kharg Island, the terminal that handles roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports.

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The US president struck a mixed tone on diplomacy with Iran, saying he was “pretty sure” of making a deal with Iran but conceding that talks could still collapse.

Meanwhile, Iran’s parliament speaker warned that Tehran would “set them on fire” when American forces arrived and promised consequences for US-allied nations in the region. 

The oil price surge is far from over, according to market analysts, who warn that the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could drive crude even higher.

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“A scenario in which the Strait remains closed for an additional month would be consistent with oil prices rising towards $150/bbl and constraints on industrial consumers of energy supply,” Bruce Kasman, global head of economics at JPMorgan, said.

According to Bloomberg, US officials and Wall Street analysts have also begun discussing the possibility of crude reaching $200 per barrel.

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Asian Stocks Tumble, Crypto Feels the Pressure

The energy shock rippled across Asia. Google Finance data showed that Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell over 4.5%, while South Korea’s KOSPI dropped more than 4.3% as import-dependent economies repriced risk.

The volatility has spread to crypto markets, with asset prices dipping early in the morning before rebounding. 

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“The market briefly crashed just now — ETH dropped below $1,940 and BTC fell below $65,000,” Lookonchain reported.

Oil above $100 per barrel continues to pressure risk assets by fueling inflation expectations and delaying anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The post Oil Rose 3% to Open the Week: Here’s What Moved the Market on Monday appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Lido DAO Mulls $20M LDO Buyback to Boost Token Price

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Lido DAO Mulls $20M LDO Buyback to Boost Token Price

Lido’s decentralized autonomous organization is considering a one-off $20 million buyback of its governance token to address so-called price dislocation, which is at “historically depressed levels” relative to Ether, according to the DAO. 

The proposal, submitted Friday, seeks permission to swap 10,000 Lido Staked Ether (stETH) tokens, currently worth $20 million from the DAO’s treasury for Lido DAO (LDO), arguing that LDO is undervalued.

“This is not a routine fluctuation. It represents one of the most significant dislocations between LDO’s market price and its underlying protocol fundamentals in the token’s history.”

A token buyback of this size could boost the price of the token, which has fallen roughly 96% from its all-time high. In November, a Lido DAO member pitched an automated buyback mechanism for LDO to improve the token’s price. However, that proposal hasn’t been implemented.

LDO’s change in price relative to ETH since 2024. Source: Lido DAO

Lido DAO pointed out that LDO is trading at a steep discount to Ether (ETH) at a ratio of 0.00016, roughly 63% below its two-year median.

This is despite the protocol holding the top spot of the Ethereum liquid staking market, with a 23.2% share of staked Ether, according to Dune Analytics data. The protocol’s dominance has even been flagged as a centralization risk to the network in previous years.

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Share of Ethereum network validators. Source: Dune Analytics

Related: Ethereum builders propose ‘economic zone’ to tackle L2 fragmentation 

LDO is currently trading at $0.30, down 95.9% from its $7.30 high set in August 2021, according to CoinGecko data. LDO’s $255 million market cap makes it the 141st largest token by value at the time of writing.

“That dislocation is not justified by a proportional deterioration in protocol performance,” Lido DAO said. 

Lido DAO proposes buying stETH in batches

Lido DAO proposed buying up to 10,000 stETH in smaller batches of 1,000 to buy LDO. 

Lido DAO said it would use limit orders or adopt a dollar-cost averaging strategy to avoid market volatility. 

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