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There’s better way to beat S&P 500 than looking for homerun stocks

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There's better way to beat S&P 500 than looking for homerun stocks

Stock pickers have long sought to beat the market, and most continue to fail, with the rate of underperformance of U.S. large-cap mutual funds, after fees, against the S&P 500 between 80%-90% of all funds over a decade. But there are ways to think about generating what is known as alpha — outperformance of a benchmark — at a broader portfolio construction level, using strategies that involve assets from cash to bonds to commodities. This approach is a focus for asset management firms from Pimco to State Street Investment Management, both of whom joined this week’s CNBC “ETF Edge” to discuss where they are looking for differentiated returns outside the U.S. large-cap stock market.

These managers are not saying that the U.S. stock market won’t continue to do well. But amid big swings in equity markets on geopolitical headlines, macro uncertainty, and central bank interest rate policies around the world that are diverging, the classic advice to seek diversification in a portfolio and make tweaks on the margins may lead to a little extra juice in 2026 returns.

Matthew Bartolini, State Street Investment Management’s global head of research strategists, noted that 2025 was the first year since 2019 that stocks, bonds, gold and commodities all outperformed cash. “That’s where the idea of craftsmanship alpha or portfolio construction alpha can come from, not beating an index alpha,” he said.

Start with your cash

Investors can start thinking about that in the context of their cash.

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With a huge amount of assets being held in cash-equivalent accounts, “even that is alpha from departing from that cash,” Bartolini said.

“To manage cash is the first step,” said Jerome Schneider, Pimco’s head of short-term portfolio management, adding that enhanced cash accounts can generate 1%-2% more than a traditional cash account.

Pick bonds, not stocks

Investors can also think about it in terms of looking for extra return from bonds while not attempting to beat the S&P 500, according to Schneider. Pimco offers an ETF corresponding to this idea, recently launching the actively managed PIMCO US Stocks PLUS Active Bond ETF (SPLS) that combines passive exposure to the S&P 500 with active fixed income strategies.

Schneider said Pimco expects economic growth to remain healthy in 2026, even as the U.S. economy shows signs of uneven performance across households and sectors. But he added it is important to look beyond U.S. markets, and cited the divergent monetary policy paths across countries, from Canada to Japan and Australia to the United Kingdom, as a source of relative-value opportunities. “[We] have monetary policies that are very divergent for the first time in almost a financial generation,” Schneider said.

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He said investors should also think broadly about fixed-income exposure, including securitized assets such as agency mortgages, rather than just corporate credit late in the cycle. Schneider cautioned passive benchmarks could limit flexibility at a time when valuation and geopolitical issues are at a high. He pointed to longer-term performance of active fixed-income funds versus benchmarks that he says has been much better than equity funds, but according to the S&P Global SPIVA scorecard, which tracks all funds against their benchmarks, bond funds’ track record is mixed and varies greatly category by category.

Tweak S&P 500 exposure and risk profile

Bartolini said improving on traditional portfolio design doesn’t mean abandoning the U.S. market, which was a popular topic this week amid fears of a “sell America” trade based on the uncertainty associated with President Trump’s foreign policy.

But it can mean looking at additional asset classes to buffer U.S. market risks. State Street does offer the SPDR Bridgewater All Weather ETF (ALLW), which it launched last year in conjunction with hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, which corresponds to this idea, investing across global equities, bonds, inflation-linked bonds and commodities.

“We see so many portfolios that are U.S.-equity dominant or equity dominant,” Bartolini said. “You do see an upward bias relative to inflation-linked bonds, and into commodity complex as well,” he added.

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Gold had its best return since 1979 last year, according to Bartolini, while 70% of international stocks beat the U.S. market. Gold, silver and platinum all hit record highs on Friday. The situation argues for greater “blending” of assets by investors who today in many cases have as much as 80% exposure to U.S. equities. “Clients are structurally underweight real assets, whether gold, commodities, or inflation-linked bonds,” he said. “And you don’t have to pick one, but own the risk premium across all, move towards the ones maybe underrepresented,” he added.

Over the last 15 years, he said, investing in U.S. stocks is “the winningest trade you could have,” and he does not believe there will suddenly be some mass “sell” on U.S. assets. “‘Sell’ is a headline, not a through line for portfolio construction,” Bartolini said. But he added that an 80% allocation to one country’s stock market also runs counter to diversification and balance.

Rotation rather than wholesale risk aversion is the idea, according to Bartolini, and that can mean instead of a portfolio that is 80% U.S. large-cap stocks, taking it down to 75% or 70%. He also highlighted renewed interest in small-cap equities in the second half of 2025 following expectations for easier monetary policy and fiscal support. Small-cap stocks have outperformed large-caps since mid-year 2025, alongside improving earnings expectations for 2026. The Russell 2000 Index is trading at an all-time high and has risen close to 9% this year, versus a near flat return for the S&P 500, as the small-cap index has bested the large-cap index over the past 14 consecutive market trading sessions, the longest streak of relative outperformance since May 1996. Over the past six months, it has doubled the return of the large-cap stock benchmark.

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Crypto World

XRP price prediction ahead of January US CPI report today

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XRP price prediction ahead of January US CPI report today - 1

XRP price is hovering near $1.35 as markets closely watch the January U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due later today.

Summary

  • Markets expect January U.S. CPI to show sticky inflation, with core prices remaining elevated, a result that could delay Federal Reserve rate cuts and pressure crypto assets.
  • XRP is trading near $1.35, below its 50-day SMA around $1.84, with the broader trend still bearish on the daily chart.
  • Key support sits at $1.30 and $1.20, while resistance stands at $1.40 and the $1.80–$1.85 region; CPI data could determine the next breakout or breakdown.

Economists expect headline inflation to tick slightly higher on a month-over-month basis. Annual inflation is projected to land in the 2.5% range. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, is also expected to show sticky price pressures.

If CPI comes in hotter than expected, it could reduce the chances of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. That would likely strengthen the U.S. dollar and weigh on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies like the Ripple token (XRP).

A softer-than-expected print, however, could boost expectations of monetary easing and trigger a relief rally across crypto markets.

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XRP price prediction and key levels

XRP is currently trading around $1.35, down roughly 0.6% on the day, according to the daily price chart.

XRP price prediction ahead of January US CPI report today - 1
XRP price analysis | Crypto.News

The chart shows a clear downtrend since early January. XRP failed to hold above the $2.20–$2.30 region and has printed a series of lower highs and lower lows. The price is trading well below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which sits near $1.84, signaling continued bearish momentum.

The recent sharp sell-off toward the $1.20 zone was followed by a brief rebound, but upside momentum has faded. Candles are now compressing near the $1.35 level, suggesting indecision ahead of the CPI release.

The Chaikin Money Flow indicator is currently around -0.12, remaining in negative territory. This indicates capital outflows and weak buying pressure, reinforcing the bearish bias.

For the XRP price, immediate support lies near $1.30, followed by the recent swing low around $1.20. A break below $1.20 could open the door toward the psychological $1.00 level.

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On the upside, initial resistance sits near $1.40, with stronger resistance at the 50-day SMA around $1.84.

A hotter CPI reading could push XRP below $1.30 and retest $1.20. A softer inflation print may spark a rebound toward $1.40 and potentially $1.60 in the short term.

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ETHZilla Shifts Strategy With Tokenized Jet Engine Offering

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ETHZilla Shifts Strategy With Tokenized Jet Engine Offering

Crypto treasury company ETHZilla has launched a token offering access to equity in jet engines that the company acquired last month as part of its pivot into tokenized assets.

ETHZilla said on Thursday that the token, called Eurus Aero Token I, was being launched through its new subsidiary, ETHZilla Aerospace, and is backed by two commercial jet engines that are leased to “a leading US air carrier.”

The company has priced each token at $100, with a minimum purchase of 10 tokens. ETHZilla said it’s targeting an 11% return rate based on holding it for the full term of the engine leases that extend into 2028.

ETHZilla was formerly a clinical-stage biotech company called 180 Life Sciences Corp that pivoted to buying and holding Ether (ETH) in July amid a frenzy of new crypto treasury companies at the time.

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ETHZilla chairman and CEO McAndrew Rudisill said the project “expands investment access and modernizes fractional asset ownership in markets that have historically been available only to institutional credit and private equity.”

“Offering a token backed by engines leased to one of the largest and most profitable US airlines serves as a strong use case in applying blockchain infrastructure to aviation assets with contracted cash flows and global investment demand,” he added.

Source: ETHZilla

ETHZilla shifting away from crypto treasury

Rudisill said in December ETHZilla is moving away from just buying and holding ETH and aims to build a business that brings assets on-chain through tokenization.

Crypto treasury companies experienced significant growth and hype last year, but enthusiasm has since started to cool across the market.  

ETHZilla purchased the two jet engines for a combined $12.2 million in January, after selling off some of its ETH stash last year.

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