TLDR:

• Institutional buyers accumulate positions quietly before breakouts occur, absorbing supply inside bases 
• Volume reduction before breakouts signals stored energy rather than weakness in underlying price trends 
• Momentum funds and retail traders enter after performance becomes visible, creating delayed volume spikes 
• Breakout timing context matters more than immediate volume confirmation for predicting trend sustainability

Low volume breakouts often face skepticism from traders who follow conventional technical analysis rules. The standard teaching suggests strong volume must accompany price breakouts for validation.

However, market history reveals a different pattern where volume frequently arrives after the breakout occurs. Technical analyst Aksel Kibar recently examined this phenomenon, noting that markets often move quietly before attracting broader participation.

This observation challenges widely accepted assumptions about volume requirements during breakout formations.

Institutional Accumulation Precedes Public Recognition

Market structure explains why breakouts occur without immediate volume expansion. Institutional investors typically build positions within consolidation ranges before prices break higher.

These buyers accumulate shares gradually when public interest remains low. Supply gets absorbed during this quiet phase, creating conditions for easier price movement.

Technical research supports the concept of volume reduction before breakouts. This pattern reflects stored energy rather than weakness in the underlying trend.

Price can advance with minimal participation because resistance has already been removed. The breakout itself represents recognition of a shift rather than the beginning of participation.

Early positioning by informed buyers means fewer shares remain available when prices break out. The lack of sellers allows price to move higher without requiring heavy volume.

This dynamic contradicts the traditional view that volume must confirm every breakout immediately. Markets can transition from accumulation to markup phase with relatively light trading activity.

The concept of “volume dry-up” before breakouts appears frequently in technical literature. Reduced trading activity can signal preparation for a move rather than disinterest.

When supply has been absorbed and sellers have exited, prices move freely on modest volume. This phase often precedes substantial trends that develop over subsequent weeks or months.

Market Stages Reveal Delayed Volume Patterns

Technical analyst Aksel Kibar noted on social media that breakout performance should consider context beyond the initial moment.

His analysis identifies three distinct stages in market behavior following consolidation patterns. The initial breakout stage often shows limited participation from retail traders and momentum investors.

Performance becomes visible as the trend develops and price gains become measurable. Momentum-focused funds enter positions after trends establish themselves through consistent price action.

Retail participation follows as media coverage expands and investment narratives gain traction. This sequence explains why volume peaks occur after breakouts rather than during them.

Studies examining breakout patterns reveal that timing matters more than immediate volume confirmation. Some quiet breakouts evolve into sustained trends while high-volume breakouts occasionally mark exhaustion points. The relationship between volume and price depends on market phase and participant behavior.

Recognition that volume confirms participation rather than initiating moves changes how traders evaluate breakouts. Markets demonstrate strength through sustained price advancement regardless of initial volume levels.

Historical patterns show that whisper-quiet beginnings can precede powerful trends. The sequence of accumulation, breakout, and expansion follows a logical progression that volume data reflects over time.

TLDR:

• Each resistance test removes sell liquidity, gradually weakening the barrier rather than strengthening it. 
• Short positions accumulate above tested resistance, creating stop-loss clusters that fuel explosive breakouts. 
• Horizontal resistance levels with three or more touches demonstrate institutional recognition and setup quality. 
• Repeated price returns to resistance signal market acceptance and persistent demand, not rejection behavior.

Breakout probability increases with multiple tests at resistance levels, contrary to traditional technical analysis teachings.

Technical analyst Aksel Kibar challenges conventional market wisdom in a detailed explanation of modern market dynamics. The analysis focuses on liquidity pools, order flow, and auction theory.

Classical teachings suggest resistance strengthens with repeated failures. However, market behavior demonstrates the opposite trend through systematic liquidity depletion. Each test removes available sell orders and transfers inventory from sellers to buyers.

Liquidity Depletion Weakens Resistance Over Time

Resistance levels function as liquidity pools rather than solid barriers. Modern markets reveal these zones contain clusters of limit orders and resting sell liquidity.

Each price movement into resistance consumes available sell orders through transactions. This process gradually removes supply from the level.

The technical analyst compares resistance to ice being chipped away with each touch. Every test fills sell orders and reduces available supply at that price point.

Eventually, insufficient sellers remain to maintain the resistance level. This creates conditions favorable for eventual breakouts.

Buyers consistently absorb demand at these levels through repeated transactions. The inventory transfers from sellers to buyers during each test. This systematic reduction in available supply makes future breakouts structurally easier to achieve.

Short Positions Create Breakout Fuel Above Resistance

Market participants tend to initiate new short positions after repeated failures at resistance. Confidence in the level grows with each rejection, leading to tighter stop-loss clustering above. This accumulation of stops creates latent energy that fuels eventual breakouts.

When resistance finally breaks, short sellers must cover their positions simultaneously. Breakout traders and momentum participants enter the market at the same time. This combination creates a liquidity vacuum that accelerates price movement upward.

Aksel Kibar notes on his platform that strong breakouts frequently occur after multiple failed attempts. The concentration of stop-loss orders above well-tested levels amplifies the breakout move. This pattern explains why persistent testing often leads to decisive directional moves.

Horizontal Boundaries Signal Institutional Recognition

Horizontal levels carry particular significance in technical analysis, according to the analyst. These boundaries indicate institutional recognition and shared market memory across time periods. Multiple touches increase participant awareness and order clustering around these levels.

The analyst emphasizes mature chart patterns with a minimum of three touch points to pattern boundaries. This selection criterion improves signal quality and setup probability in trading decisions. Horizontal patterns from global exchanges demonstrate this principle consistently.

Markets operate as auction systems where repeated price returns signal ongoing negotiation. Persistence at specific levels indicates acceptance behavior rather than rejection.

Strong markets build bases through consolidation near resistance before continuation moves. This base-building process incorporates multiple tests as part of the natural market structure.

Two US senators are pressing the Treasury Department to investigate a reported foreign investment in a crypto venture tied to the Trump family, raising concerns about national security, foreign influence and access to sensitive financial data.

In a Friday letter to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren and New Jersey Senator Andy Kim asked the government to determine whether the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) should investigate a deal in which a UAE–backed investment vehicle agreed to purchase a 49% stake in World Liberty Financial (WLFI) for roughly $500 million.

The lawmakers wrote that the transaction reportedly occurred days before Donald Trump’s inauguration and would make the foreign fund the firm’s largest shareholder and its only publicly known outside investor. They asked Bessent, who chairs CFIUS, to confirm whether the committee was notified and, if necessary, conduct a “comprehensive, thorough, and unbiased investigation.”

The investment was reportedly backed by Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the UAE’s national security adviser. The agreement allegedly directed about $187 million to entities linked to the Trump family and granted two board seats to executives connected to G42, a technology company previously scrutinized by US intelligence agencies over concerns about ties to China, per the letter.

Related: Trump Media files for two new crypto ETFs tied to Bitcoin, Ether, Cronos

UAE stake could expose Americans’ financial and personal data

Warren and Kim argued that the structure of the deal could allow a foreign government to gain influence over a US company handling financial and personal information. They noted that the firm’s privacy disclosures indicate it collects data including wallet addresses, IP addresses, device identifiers and approximate location data, along with certain identity records through service providers.

CFIUS is tasked with reviewing foreign investments that could provide access to sensitive technologies or personal data belonging to US citizens. The lawmakers requested answers by March 5.

Last year, Senators Warren and Jack Reed also called on US authorities to investigate alleged links between World Liberty Financial’s token sales and sanctioned foreign actors. In a Nov. letter to the Justice Department and Treasury, they cited claims that WLFI governance tokens were bought by blockchain addresses tied to North Korea’s Lazarus Group, as well as Russian- and Iranian-linked entities.

Related: Trump family’s WLFI plans FX and remittance platform: Report

Trump says sons handle WLFI investment

Earlier this month, US President Donald Trump said he was unaware of the reported multimillion-dollar investment tied to an Abu Dhabi royal and entities connected to the World Liberty Financial crypto platform.