Traders panicked during Trump’s Iran war speech

Donald Trump stepped onto stage on Wednesday night at 9:02pm New York time. A full moon hung overhead, and NASA had just launched Artemis II on a moonshot hours earlier. None of it mattered.

Despite a historic night worthy of celebration, Trump brought the national mood – and prices across the world’s capital markets like oil and bitcoin (BTC) – into immediate panic.

Within seconds of his opening words, S&P 500 Contracts for Difference (CFDs) started to decline from the index’s 6,588 start at 9:02pm. Half an hour later, the $60 trillion index had lost 1% of its value after falling to 6,523. 

BTC amplified that slide, declining 1.6% from $68,342 at 9:02pm to $67,212 by 9:32pm.

Crude oil CFDs, indicating obvious dissatisfaction with Trump’s 3-week timeline extension on his Iran war, not to mention his claim that the Strait of Hormuz would somehow reopen “naturally,” spiked 5.7%, panicking from $98.27 per barrel at 9:02pm to $103.95 per barrel by 9:32pm.

As of publication time, both oil and bitcoin have extended their moves since Trump’s speech. Oil is now 13% more expensive than when Trump began speaking last night. The price of BTC is 3.1% worse over the same time period.

Optimistic listeners had expected a victory lap and a definitive plan to secure the Strait of Hormuz. Instead, Trump gave a vague promise to “hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks.”

The Strait of Hormuz will ‘open up naturally’

The most consequential moment of the address was not about bombs or regime change. It was about oil.

Roughly one-fifth of global oil supply sailed through the Strait of Hormuz prior to the start of the US-Israeli war against Iran on February 28.

Last night, Trump urged countries that depend on the Strait to handle the situation themselves. “Go to the strait and just take it, protect it, use it for yourselves,” he broadcast onto TV screens around the globe after continuously bombing its neighbor for 4.5 weeks.

Read more: Trump documents meltdown over Iran war on Truth Social

Incredibly, he immediately proceeded to embarrass himself further, “When this conflict is over, the Strait will open up naturally.”

Oil traders did not share any of his optimism. 

CFDs on crude oil, the next-best price for the world’s largest commodity while its formal futures markets were closed, became 5.7% more expensive within minutes.

Trump’s three more weeks for oil and bitcoin to recover naturally

Trump has promised falling oil prices before. On March 8, he posted on Truth Social that prices would “drop rapidly” once the US dealt with the nuclear threat. He called anyone who disagreed a fool.

Oil was at $85 per barrel then. It was above $103 by the time he finished his speech last night.

On February 28, Trump claimed Iran “has been, in only one day, very much destroyed and, even, obliterated.” The country he declared obliterated 32 days ago continues to constrict Strait tanker traffic and fire missiles at US ally nations.

Gas prices at US pumps hit $4 per gallon this week, up more than 30% since the war began. Diesel crossed $5.45 per gallon. Americans last paid this much for basic fuel in August 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine.

Wednesday’s speech should have changed the trajectory. Instead, Trump promised more escalation, told allies to find “delayed courage,” and assured a nation paying $4 per gallon that “gas prices will rapidly come back down.”

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