Traders predict Trump will make major announcements during China trip

Prediction market traders think President Donald Trump will make some major announcements in his trip to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. 

Traders on Kalshi give an 86% chance that he will announce China will buy aircraft from domestic manufacturer Boeing. 

That belief is shared with Wall Street, as Boeing’s stock advanced nearly 2% on Wednesday ahead of the meeting. 

“The speculation is that Trump wants this to be the largest order ever announced, which could mean a Boeing purchase commitment in the triple-digit billions,” wrote Tobin Marcus, head of U.S. politics and policy at Wolfe Research, in a note. “Investors will need to await clarification from the company about how ‘real’ those numbers are and what specific airframes are included.”

Traders are also placing more than 81% odds that Trump will announce an extension of the U.S.-China tariff truce. In their October deal, China agreed to pause export controls on rare earths while the U.S. cut tariffs on the country related to fentanyl to 10% from 20%. 

Barclays predicted that tariff might move a few percentage points lower if China purchases aircraft, as well as American oil and soybeans. While Kalshi traders see a 79% chance a soybean purchase is announced, oil purchases have a much lower probability at just 24%. 

Traders also think there’s a 69% chance a U.S.-China Board of Trade is announced. This is a key goal of U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, Wolfe’s Marcus noted. “We suspect that this will be done primarily through ongoing purchase commitments, with the Board of Trade eliciting a centralized answer from the CCP about what China will buy from the US to mitigate their bilateral trade surplus,” he wrote. 

Trump told reporters on Tuesday as he departed for the trip that while he expected to chat about the Iran war with Xi, he also said, “I don’t think we need any help with Iran.” Despite that, traders see a likelihood of 61% that he talks about Tehran during the bilateral meeting. They also give a 59% chance he talks about oil or gasoline. 

However, traders think there’s just a 54% chance he’ll talk about artificial intelligence. Jefferies analyst Edison Lee in a Tuesday note predicted the topic will likely be of great interest, considering the background of executives expected to join Trump on his trip. 

“In addition to discussions on US AI chip/WFE [wafer-fabrication-equipment] export restrictions, the presence of Micron’s CEO and Meta’s president could offer scope for the issues of China’s ban on Micron’s products in key Chinese infra and restrictions against Facebook to be part of the discussions,” he wrote. “We also see these issues as part of the bargaining process in relation to US tech restrictions against China.”

And while China-U.S. tensions are high these days, traders don’t think that will stop a firm handshake. Traders think the most likely scenario is Trump and Xi will shake hands for about 8.5 seconds.  

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