In the first six months of 2026, the crypto industry raised $11.2 billion. Not one dollar of it went to the permissionless, ungoverned experiments that digital assets were supposed to be built on.

“There is an irony at the heart of crypto, and it took an $11.2 billion dataset to make it obvious,” said Dubai-based crypto lawyer Irina Heaver, founder of NeosLegal. “The industry was born on a single promise: permissionless. Money and markets that answer to no gatekeeper.”

Heaver and her team gathered data that might, as he put it, indicate that “crypto’s permissionless era is over.”

NeosLegal tracked every disclosed crypto funding round between January and June 2026. A total of 377 financing rounds took place, Heaver said via Telegram. The top three sectors by capital raised were payments and stablecoins at $3.7 billion, prediction markets at $2 billion and crypto exchanges and trading platforms at $1.7 billion. All three require regulatory approval to operate, she noted.

“The money has stopped chasing permissionless,” Heaver said. “It is chasing regulated businesses now.”

Prediction markets took point

Prediction markets drove the point. Kalshi raised $1 billion in May in a round that included Sequoia Capital, Morgan Stanley, Ark Invest, and Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), among others. Polymarket raised $600 million from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the company that owns the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Prediction markets pulled in capital in every single month of the first half of 2026 — a total of 34 rounds in six months, she added.

Predictions that Bitcoin could hit $1 million by 2030 are drawing fresh skepticism from industry research chief Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research. In an interview with Cointelegraph, Thielen argued that the forecast is not just ambitious—it is mathematically inconsistent with how much capital markets would need to add in a short time to lift Bitcoin’s price to that level.

Thielen’s core claim is straightforward: the capital inflows required to support a $1 million per-coin target would need to be far larger than anything Bitcoin has historically attracted during comparable periods. He also warned that even if Bitcoin continues to rebound from cycle lows, investors may be underestimating how much time and liquidity it typically takes to push prices to new highs once the asset’s market capitalization grows.

Key takeaways

• Markus Thielen says a $1 million Bitcoin by 2030 “doesn’t add up” mathematically, based on historical capital inflow comparisons.
• He estimates Bitcoin would need roughly $15 trillion in additional capital to reach a $1 million price per BTC, assuming current supply and valuation logic.
• Thielen argues that because Bitcoin is already valued at over $1 trillion, major price moves require “trillions” rather than smaller inflow waves.
• He cautions that retail investors’ expectations may be distorted by round-number narratives—and that a rapid return to extreme highs may be unlikely.
• Industry figures including Brian Armstrong, Jack Dorsey, and Cathie Wood have publicly endorsed $1 million-style targets, which Thielen views as media-friendly but potentially harmful.

Why Thielen challenges the $1 million-by-2030 math

Thielen’s argument begins with the relationship between Bitcoin’s market value and the scale of new money needed to change its price meaningfully. At the time of the interview, Bitcoin’s market capitalization was around $1.28 trillion, with the BTC price reported at $63,868, according to CoinMarketCap.

Against that baseline, Thielen estimated that achieving a $1 million per Bitcoin outcome would require another approximately $15 trillion in capital entering Bitcoin. In his view, that total is not a minor extension of prior years’ trends, but a large step beyond what has historically been seen.

He referenced Bitcoin’s earlier development period as context, noting that inflows large enough to lift the overall market capitalization by orders of magnitude have still fallen far short of what would be necessary for the next phase of growth implied by a $1 million target. Thielen summarized the difference as a gap between what the asset has historically attracted and what would be required over roughly the next four years to reach the per-coin valuation that the prediction implies.

Thielen described the resulting conclusion in absolute terms: reaching that price level, in his assessment, is “mathematically impossible.” While he did not claim a regulatory or technical barrier, his reasoning hinges on liquidity and capital requirements—how much incremental demand must show up for a large, already-established asset to move much higher.

“It would require trillions”: market cap and the liquidity problem

A key part of Thielen’s critique is about scale. As Bitcoin’s market capitalization increases, the same size of purchasing does not translate to the same percentage price move. In the interview, he argued that materially higher prices generally require materially larger inflows—especially once the market is already measured in trillions.

That is why, in his view, claims that Bitcoin can simply “continue its trajectory” underestimate the money needed at higher levels. Thielen’s framing suggests that even if investors remain bullish over the long run, the pace may look different than optimistic price charts imply.

He also tied the expected difficulty of sustained upside to investor psychology. Thielen said that as Bitcoin’s price rises, retail sentiment can weaken because many buyers appear to prefer owning a whole unit of Bitcoin rather than fractions. He described a scenario where some people reconsider participation when they feel the effort required to buy even one BTC becomes comparable to other life goals—such as saving for a car—rather than remaining a straightforward investment purchase.

In that sense, Thielen is not arguing that adoption disappears. He is pointing to a specific friction: the higher Bitcoin goes, the more the “one Bitcoin” mental benchmark can become a psychological barrier, potentially dampening some marginal retail demand.

Cycle expectations: don’t assume next year will rewrite the record

Thielen urged Bitcoiners not to treat previous cycle rebounds as a guarantee of similarly fast upside after major highs. He argued that in earlier cycles, price recovery took time partly because Bitcoin reached a higher market capitalization than before—meaning pushing it higher becomes increasingly capital-intensive.

He suggested investors should not assume that new all-time highs will arrive immediately. While he did not rule out strong performance, he implied that the timeline may stretch longer than those expecting a fast re-test of the peak would like.

Thielen specifically cautioned that the $126,000 all-time high may not reappear quickly. Asked about the possibility of reaching $100,000, he characterized a move back to that level as a “big, big achievement,” even if it does not necessarily equate to a full cycle of record-breaking behavior.

The underlying message is that while Bitcoin historically has recovered after declines, the effort required to reach substantially higher valuations changes as the asset’s size increases—both in terms of liquidity and market dynamics.

The executives behind $1 million: attention versus outcomes

The $1 million prediction has not been limited to anonymous online commentary. Thielen pointed to public forecasts made by prominent industry figures, including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey, and ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood.

Thielen’s critique focused on the incentives behind such statements. He argued that round numbers—especially large targets that attract media coverage—are more likely to be quoted widely. He characterized these forecasts as an easy way for executives to generate attention, even if the implied assumptions about future liquidity are unrealistic.

According to Thielen, the harm is not limited to academic debate. He warned that aggressive price targets can influence retail behavior by encouraging expectations of large, quick profits. In his view, if even a forecast is “halfway right,” some participants may assume the upside automatically translates into exceptional gains—an assumption he said can lead to disappointment or overconfidence.

Thielen did not present his stance as a call for pessimism. He argued that sentiment has often already become optimistic early in the year, while a more conservative approach can be the better strategy for risk management and expectation-setting. When Cointelegraph asked him what year Bitcoiners might reasonably expect $1 million, he avoided a direct prediction but reiterated that the number is extremely high.

“It would require, you know, a major credit event, implosion of everything.”

For readers following Bitcoin’s longer-term narrative, that quote points to Thielen’s view that a $1 million scenario likely depends on extraordinary macro conditions rather than “business as usual.”

For the market, the key question now is whether the next phase of Bitcoin growth is driven by sustained, large-scale capital inflows—or whether Thielen’s liquidity-based critique better reflects how price responds as Bitcoin’s valuation grows. Investors watching this debate should focus less on attention-grabbing round numbers and more on the pace and magnitude of new demand relative to Bitcoin’s already-large market capitalization.

The numbers behind the oft-cited prediction that Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2030 simply don’t add up, according to Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research.

“It’s mathematically impossible,” Thielen tells Cointelegraph on Trade Secrets, arguing that Bitcoin’s historical capital inflows over the past 15 years fall far short of the amount it would need to attract over the next four years to reach $1 million. “We have seen $1 trillion US dollars of inflow to bring the market cap really to $1 trillion. To $1 million [per] Bitcoin. It’s 15x, I think, from here,” Thielen says.

At the time of publication, Bitcoin’s market cap is around $1.28 trillion, with its price trading at $63,868, according to CoinMarketCap.

Thielen estimates that Bitcoin would need to attract another $15 trillion in capital to reach a per Bitcoin price of $1 million. This is equivalent to roughly 25% of the US stock market’s total value flowing into Bitcoin over the next four years.

“It would require trillions,” says Thielen

“It takes trillions and trillions of dollars to move the price really materially higher, and that’s why we are not as bullish as those arguments which we think are totally mathematically unrealistic because it would require trillions,” Thielen says.

Bitcoin is down 2.35% over the past 30 days. (CoinMarketCap)

Thielen says the higher Bitcoin’s price goes, the weaker retail sentiment becomes, partly due to the psychology of investors wanting to own a whole unit of an asset.

“I think a lot of people kind of wondered, maybe I should just rather buy a new car than buy one Bitcoin, or should I really work a whole year for just one Bitcoin?” Thielen says. “People don’t want to buy a tenth or a hundredth of a Bitcoin; they want to buy a whole Bitcoin. You don’t want to buy a fraction of a painting.”

“Satoshis doesn’t really sound as interesting as Bitcoin,” Thielen says.

He warns Bitcoiners not just to expect Bitcoin to rebound as it has in previous cycles, and the $126,000 all-time high may not reappear as quickly as investors expect.

“Usually, it takes some time because we are at a higher market cap, and that usually takes a lot of money to push the Bitcoin price higher. So I wouldn’t argue that next year we’re gonna see new highs. If we go back to, let’s say, $100K, that would already be, I think, a big, big achievement,” Thielen says.

$1 million Bitcoin has been touted by well-known industry executives

The prediction that Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2030 has been made by prominent industry figures, including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey and ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood. Thielen argues that such bold forecasts are an easy way for executives to generate media attention.

(Brian Armstrong)

“Round numbers and the higher the number, the more it’s being quoted by the press,” Thielen says, arguing that extravagant predictions tend to do more harm than good.

“These optimistic price targets tend to hurt retail investors because they sort of think, OK, if this is only halfway right, then I’m gonna make a lot of money,” Thielen says.

“I think nearly everybody was still very bullish and projected higher prices [but] we came into the year already quite conservative, and you know, I think our conservative approach has been the right strategy,” Thielen says.

Cointelegraph asked Thielen which year Bitcoiners might reasonably expect Bitcoin could reach $1 million. “I don’t want to say never, but I do think, you know, a million is really a high number,” Thielen says.

“It would require, you know, a major credit event, implosion of everything.”

Bitcoin could bottom in October before recovering to around $130,000 ahead of the 2028 halving, according to Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price peaked above $126,000 in early October 2025, meaning that the “market should bottom in October,” Klippsten told Cointelegraph. 

He argued that Bitcoin has so far bottomed about 12 months after each previous bull market peak, while cautioning against extrapolating from only a few previous cycles.

Klippsten’s prediction for an October bottom builds on a June interview with Cointelegraph, when he said Bitcoin may bottom earlier than in previous cycles as long-term holders accumulated a record share of supply, or 14.7 million BTC.

In the latest interview, Klippsten said Bitcoin could fall to $57,000, or even $53,000, before a quick recovery, and could reach around $130,000 ahead of the 2028 halving.

Other analytics providers are eyeing an earlier bottom. Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said that Bitcoin could confirm a bear-market bottom in August with a monthly close above $63,000, which would turn several of the analytics firm’s cycle indicators bullish.

Related: H100 becomes Europe’s No. 2 Bitcoin treasury after 2,455 BTC deal

Altcoins are dead as money, crypto will become TradFi

Klippsten said altcoins are “basically dead” as competitors to Bitcoin as money, arguing that the best outcome for crypto and decentralized finance (DeFi) is to “become part of TradFi.”

When asked about his thoughts on altcoins that may outperform the broader market, Klippsten pointed to Hyperliquid, arguing that centralized crypto businesses will eventually be brought under traditional finance regulation.

“Hyperliquid is a business and it has a token. If it’s a business that’s centralized, it will eventually just get sucked up by TradFi and be thought of as an exchange and a bank.” 

Hyperliquid generated $5.9 million in revenue during the past week, ranking as the industry’s fifth-largest DeFi protocol by weekly revenue, according to DefiLlama.

The Hyperliquid (HYPE) token rose 130% year-to-date, while Bitcoin’s price fell 28% during the same period, TradingView data shows.

BTC and HYPE tokens, year-to-date chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

In a July report, crypto market maker Wintermute argued that the growing presence of institutional investors has changed the dynamics of altcoin markets, resulting in altcoin rallies becoming narrower and more selective. Wintermute said liquidity was concentrating in the assets institutions favored while activity across the market’s “long tail” weakened. 

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