Bitcoin enthusiasts and market observers are once again debating whether the flagship crypto will endure a final, liquidity-driven flush before any meaningful recovery takes hold. With price action mostly consolidating after recent swings, several prominent analysts say the path to a durable uptrend could still require a deeper test of support around the $50,000 region, even as episodic rallies surface on shifting macro news.

Key takeaways

• Several respected traders argue a final downside sweep toward roughly $50,000 could precede a lasting recovery, even as Bitcoin has shown intermittent strength in other macro setups.
• Despite a bounce to just under $75,000 linked to hopes for a US–Iran deal, the broader trend remains down according to noted analysts, who see any big bullish impulse as contingent on a shift in market structure and macro conditions.
• Chart patterns and cycle theory feature prominently: a bear-flag setup is still considered active by some analysts, suggesting further declines before a potential distribution phase and new accumulation.
• In the longer view, the market is wrestling with a different macro regime and a higher degree of institutional participation, factors that could blunt historic drawdown magnitudes in this cycle.
• Fidelity Digital Assets has cautioned that downside risk in 2026 may be less dramatic than in prior cycles, signaling a potentially more resilient macro-structure for Bitcoin amid ongoing adoption.

Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory: the debate among traders

Among the most vocal skeptics is Ivan Liljeqvist, the trader and author known for his social commentary on price action. In a recent post, he argued that Bitcoin has yet to witness a true “big flush,” suggesting that the market could test lower levels before a durable turn toward higher prices. His view centers on the idea that the current bounce strength is insufficient to mark the end of the bear phase, and that the downtrend remains intact.

“I don’t think we’ve had it yet, I don’t think $60,000 was the bottom. Trend is still down,” Liljeqvist wrote, underscoring the persistent breadth of selling pressure that has characterized this cycle. The implication for traders is straightforward: a mild rebound may prove unsustainable without accompanying macro or institutional shifts that breathe new life into demand at scale.

Another veteran observer, Merlijn Enkelaar, has framed Bitcoin’s path in a broader cycle view. He argues that the asset could be entering its second bear-market phase after a period of accumulation, with a potential “manipulation phase” pushing prices down toward the $50,000 region before a third, or distribution, phase takes hold. The framing implies a longer-than-expected consolidation period, punctuated by volatile drawdowns that shake out weaker hands and reset expectations for institutions stepping in later in the cycle.

“This could potentially set up for stronger bullish momentum once the flush concludes, but the institutionalization of crypto markets places consistent buying pressure at current levels.”

For Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research, the narrative centers on accumulation zones and macro resilience. He interprets a move toward $50,000 as the last meaningful accumulation window before any sustained rebound, positioning it as a cyclic reset amid broader macro headwinds and capital rotation challenges. Ruck’s perspective highlights a tension in the market: while doom-oriented voices dominate headlines, a longer arc of accumulation could still unfold if non-price factors align in favorable ways.

From the charts to the macro matrix

The discussion isn’t confined to price psychology alone. The current debate sits at the intersection of chart-driven patterns and macro-market structure. On the chart, some analysts point to a bearish flag formation that remains “in play,” signaling continued downside pressure until a new balance is found. A bear-flag pattern has historically served as a continuation signal, suggesting the trend may extend lower before buyers re-emerge with conviction.

Even as some market players look for a bottoming signal, Bitcoin did experience a relief rally earlier in the month, climbing to just under $75,000. The move was attributed to renewed optimism over a potential Iran–U.S. deal, a development that temporarily lifted markets across risk-on assets. Yet the price action once again underlines the fragility of near-term resistance: even sharp intraday squeezes can be reversed if macro news reverts to risk-off concerns or if liquidity conditions tighten.

On the longer horizon, the drawdown history remains a salient reference point. The 2017 bear market retraced roughly 82% from its high, while the 2021 cycle saw about a 77% peak-to-trough decline. In light of those precedents, some observers concede that the current cycle may diverge from the textbook 60% drawdown baseline they had expected earlier in the year. As one analyst noted, the market environment today is macro-structured in a way that could limit such a clean retreat, complicating any attempt to predict an exact bottom or the pace of subsequent recovery.

Further nuance comes from Fidelity Digital Assets, which has recently argued that downside risk in 2026 could be less dramatic than in past cycles. The assessment points to a world in which institutions already possess deeper exposure to digital assets and where the macro backdrop—while still challenging—appears less prone to catastrophic, regime-shifting drawdowns for Bitcoin than during prior bear markets.

What to watch next in a market evolving under new dynamics

As the debate unfolds, several indicators could shape the next phase of Bitcoin’s cycle. First, the $50,000 region looms as a potential pivot point, especially if the market breaks decisively below key demand zones on high-volume selloffs. A decisive move through this level would not only test investor conviction but also influence the timing and scale of any subsequent accumulation by institutions or large holders.

Second, the pace of institutional participation continues to be a critical variable. If the market’s “institutionalization” indeed places steady buying pressure at current price levels, the upswing could be more gradual and less prone to sharp, V-shaped recoveries. In that context, traders may need to tolerate broader ranges and more pronounced drawdowns during the transition to a new cyclical phase.

Third, macro developments—ranging from geopolitical tensions to liquidity conditions and monetary policy signals—will continue to drive risk sentiment and cross-asset correlations. The ongoing sensitivity of Bitcoin to these macro factors reinforces the idea that price action alone cannot tell the full story of where the market is headed next. Investors and builders will want to monitor how the macro story evolves alongside on-chain activity and sector adoption, as those elements often feed into longer-term cycles more decisively than short-lived price spikes.

Finally, the market’s risk-reward calculus remains nuanced. While some traders anticipate a deeper flush, others point to the possibility of a measured, protracted recovery as institutions allocate capital to crypto-related strategies and products. In this tension lies the potential for a steadier ramp higher rather than an abrupt, speculative rally—an outcome that could align with a structurally improved macro environment and greater clarity around regulatory and custodial frameworks.

For readers and market participants, the near future will likely test these competing theses in real time. The immediate question remains whether Bitcoin can sustain any rally without revisiting the lower sub-50k zones, or whether a test of those levels becomes a necessary precondition for a durable breakout. As always, the answer will partly hinge on how the macro narrative unfolds and how patient capital responds to evolving price discovery signals.

As the year progresses, watchers should keep a close eye on price action around the 50,000 to 60,000 band, the behavior of large holders, and the tempo of institutional activity. The convergence—or divergence—of these factors will illuminate whether this cycle is on track for a traditional recovery arc or a more complex, protracted consolidation shaped by macro realities and market participants increasingly anchored to crypto markets.

Readers should watch the next price action and macro developments closely, as the coming weeks may determine whether Bitcoin breaks decisively toward a new regime or tests a deeper trough before gathering momentum for a broader, more sustainable upswing.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s Division of Trading and Markets issued new staff guidance today, April 13, that outlines conditions under which certain crypto-related user interfaces may operate without registering as broker-dealers under federal securities law.

The guidance applies specifically to what the staff calls “covered user interfaces,” which it defines as self-custody software products for interacting with crypto, which could include DeFi protocol front-ends, wallet extensions, and mobile apps.

The staff guidance defines these UIs as “an interface provided by a website, browser extension, or other software application (e.g., mobile application) that may be embedded in a wallet or separately available for download, designed to assist users engaging in user-initiated crypto asset securities transactions on blockchain protocols (or blockchain-based smart contracts) utilizing the user’s self-custodial wallet.”

Under the SEC staff statement, an interface can avoid broker-dealer registration only if it meets all of the following conditions:

• It does not take custody of user funds;
• It provides no investment advice or trade recommendations;
• It does not route or execute orders on users’ behalf;
• Generally, it charges a fixed percentage as a transaction fee;
• It exercises no discretion over transactions or market activity.

The statement also prohibits operators from labeling trading routes as “best” or “preferred” and bars any commentary that could be interpreted as investment advice.

The SEC stressed that the statement is not a formal rule or binding regulation. Rather, it reflects staff’s current interpretation of existing Exchange Act law. The guidance is set to remain in effect for five years unless superseded by formal commission-level rulemaking, per today’s statement.

The DeFi Regulation Question

The release arrives amid a long-running debate over how U.S. law should treat DeFi developers and the software infrastructure they build. As The Defiant has reported, even after a landmark joint SEC-CFTC interpretive release earlier this year, key questions about fully permissionless DeFi remain unanswered, with experts noting that regulators have largely built frameworks around centralized actors, while deferring the hardest DeFi questions to future rulemaking.

That uncertainty has fueled industry anxiety over the fate of protocol developers, front-end operators, and wallet providers under existing securities law.

Lawyers and industry observers have warned that early draft of the CLARITY Act, the pending crypto market structure bill that has not yet passed into law, leaves many issues unresolved, empowering agencies to fill in the details through future rulemaking.

Meanwhile, both the CFTC and SEC have signaled they are working to modernize rules so there is a clearer place for on-chain software systems and front-ends within the regulatory framework.

This article was written with the assistance of AI workflows. All our stories are curated, edited and fact-checked by a human.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has issued a staff statement clarifying how the agency plans to interpret software interfaces facilitating crypto transactions in its broker-dealer regulations.

In a Monday statement, the SEC’s Division of Trading and Markets staff said that under certain circumstances, interfaces that “assist users engaging in user-initiated crypto asset securities transactions on blockchain protocols […] utilizing the user’s self-custodial wallet” may not necessarily be required to register as a broker-dealer with the agency.

The SEC statement specified that self-custodial wallets with such user interfaces may be exempt from registration requirements, provided they do not “solicit investors to engage in any specific crypto asset securities transactions,” provide commentary on “any potential execution [routes] displayed to a user,” and other circumstances.

Although the staff statement does not carry the same weight as a proposed SEC rule subject to public comment and review, it was intended to “provide greater clarity on the application of the federal securities laws to activities involving crypto asset securities.”

It follows several others that the SEC has issued following the inauguration of US President Donald Trump in January 2025, leading to new leadership at the agency in what many have seen as friendlier to the crypto industry.

Related: Ex-SEC, Coinbase staffer becomes Securitize president

“While the staff expressing its view is helpful, I favor a more permanent regulatory approach that addresses the broker definition in light of current market circumstances,” said SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce, adding:

“Crypto is forcing the Commission to confront its inner demons that have driven it toward ever more expansive readings of the securities laws.”

SEC leadership is still entirely Republican and understaffed

Although Trump announced several new nominations for various federal positions on Monday after a month of silence on the matter, no additional picks for the SEC or Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) were among the president’s names. Both financial regulators responsible for overseeing crypto regulation in the country face a dearth of leadership amid resignations and lack of nominations from the White House.

At the SEC, only three Republican commissioners out of five remain, while only CFTC Chair Michael Selig, also a Republican, serves at the commodities regulator following the departure of Caroline Pham in December.

Some lawmakers have proposed attaching a provision to a market structure bill under consideration in the Senate to require a minimum level of staffing at the SEC and CFTC before the legislation can take effect.

Magazine: Bitcoin quantum-safe without upgrade? CZ’s 2031 crypto vision: Hodler’s Digest, April 5 – 11