The latest Federal Open Market Committee minutes struck a hawkish tone, pressuring risk assets including cryptocurrencies.

Policymakers acknowledged that while inflation has cooled from its highs, progress toward the Fed’s 2% target “might be slower and more uneven than generally expected,” and warned that the risk of inflation remaining persistently above target “was meaningful.”

That language reinforced expectations that rate cuts are not imminent and that policymakers remain cautious about declaring victory over price pressures.

The minutes also revealed that several participants would have supported a “two-sided” description of risks, signaling that further rate hikes have not been fully ruled out if inflation reaccelerates. At the same time, officials indicated that additional policy easing “may not be warranted” until there is clear evidence that disinflation is firmly back on track.

While two members dissented in favor of an immediate cut, the broader message emphasized patience and vigilance, a stance that typically tightens financial conditions and weighs on high-beta assets such as crypto.

With Treasury yields climbing and expectations for near-term liquidity fading, digital assets faced renewed selling pressure. This sets the stage for a closer look at how Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and XRP (XRP) are reacting on the charts.

Crypto price prediction: Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin extended its pullback following the hawkish Fed minutes, briefly dipping toward $65,000 before stabilizing before staging a rebound. It is currently trading around $66,800, but remains well below the 50-day SMA near $82,600, which signals that the broader short-term trend is still bearish.

The RSI is hovering around 34, recovering from near-oversold territory but still below the neutral 50 level, suggesting weak momentum despite the bounce. Immediate support sits near $64,000, followed by the recent low around $60,000.

On the upside, resistance is seen near $70,000, with stronger structural resistance around $75,000–$76,000. Unless BTC reclaims those levels, rallies may continue to face selling pressure.

Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum saw a sharp sell-off in early February, dropping toward the $1,900 zone before stabilizing. It is now trading around $1,960, consolidating in a tight range amid the Fed-driven volatility.

The Balance of Power indicator has turned slightly positive, hinting at mild buying pressure, but CMF remains marginally negative, suggesting capital inflows are still weak. Immediate support lies at $1,900, with a deeper floor around $1,800.

On the upside, ETH faces resistance near $2,050, followed by $2,200, where prior breakdown levels sit.

XRP

XRP remains under pressure compared to BTC and ETH. After sliding from above $2.00 earlier in the year, it recently bounced from the $1.20–$1.25 area and is currently trading near $1.41.

Price is sitting below the mid-Bollinger Band (around $1.46), while the upper band near $1.65 acts as dynamic resistance.

CMF remains slightly negative, indicating limited buying conviction. Immediate support rests at $1.35, followed by the recent swing low near $1.25. Resistance is seen at $1.46, with a stronger barrier at $1.60–$1.65.

TLDR:

• Nexo’s cumulative credit withdrawals hit an all-time high of $863 million between 2025 and 2026. 
• Weekly retail withdrawals on Nexo surged 107%, climbing from $6.73M to $13.92M in just one month. 
• CryptoQuant’s Estimated Leverage Ratio reset to healthier levels, pointing to reduced systemic risk across crypto markets. 
• Bitcoin’s stabilization near $67,000 is lowering collateral risks, making crypto-backed borrowing more practical for users.

Nexo’s cumulative credit withdrawals have reached an all-time high of $863 million between 2025 and 2026. This record arrives as Bitcoin stabilizes near $67,000 following a -48% correction between October and February.

The broader crypto market is now shifting from sharp repricing toward steady consolidation. Weekly retail borrowing on Nexo nearly doubled from December 2025 to January 2026. This renewed activity points to growing confidence among crypto-backed liquidity users.

Retail Credit Withdrawals Signal a Market Shift

Nexo’s retail credit withdrawals declined through most of 2025, reflecting a broad risk-off trend. Many clients moved to tighten their balance sheets as crypto prices fell sharply.

However, the pace slowed considerably in late 2025 and early 2026. This leveling off suggests that retail participants have mostly completed their balance sheet tightening.

Weekly retail withdrawals grew from $6.73 million to $13.92 million between December 2025 and January 2026. That jump represents approximately 107% growth in just one month.

The data shows borrowing demand returned quickly once market conditions began steadying. Clients are clearly more willing to access crypto-backed credit in the current environment.

CryptoQuant’s Estimated Leverage Ratio has also been resetting to healthier levels during this period. Declining leverage across the market often creates a foundation for more sustainable borrowing activity.

As excess leverage clears, participants tend to re-engage credit markets with renewed conviction. This broader trend aligns with the withdrawal data now emerging from Nexo.

Bitcoin’s stabilization near $67,000 plays a direct role in this borrowing recovery. A steadier price environment lowers the risk of rapid collateral liquidation for active borrowers.

When the leading cryptocurrency consolidates, crypto-backed lending becomes a more practical financial tool. Nexo users appear to be responding directly to this change in market conditions.

Cumulative Withdrawals and the Path to Renewed Confidence

Nexo’s $863 million in cumulative credit withdrawals reflects consistent demand across multiple market cycles. This figure covers borrowing activity through both bullish and bearish price periods.

It confirms that appetite for crypto-backed liquidity holds up even during extended corrections. The milestone speaks to the resilience of Nexo’s lending model over time.

Open interest across the broader crypto market has declined from prior highs. Funding rates are also normalizing, and liquidation volumes have been subsiding in recent weeks.

These conditions are typical of a market absorbing the final stages of a correction cycle. They create a more stable ground for platforms offering crypto-backed credit solutions.

Selling pressure around Bitcoin has also weakened noticeably in recent weeks. Reduced sell-side activity supports a more stable price for collateral-backed borrowers.

Borrowers on platforms like Nexo benefit directly when Bitcoin holds within a tighter price range. Credit activity tends to pick up naturally as volatility subsides.

Recent data from Nexo suggests the market may now be entering a new borrowing phase. Weekly withdrawal growth and cumulative figures together tell a coherent recovery story.

Borrowing demand is returning as the correction cycle winds down. The broader crypto credit market appears to be stabilizing after months of contraction.

Bitcoin (BTC) is forming what may prove to be a fifth consecutive red monthly candle, which would be the longest losing streak since 2018. The silver lining is that data suggests that March may prove to be a profitable month for BTC.

Previous multimonth downtrends were followed by 300% price gains

Historical price data from CoinGlass confirms Bitcoin is now facing its fifth consecutive red month, down 15% this month after closing the previous four months in the red.

The last time this happened was in 2018, when it entered a bear market after reaching record highs in 2017. 

“Last time this happened was in 2018/19 when we saw 6 red months,” analysts at macro investor outlet Milk Road said in an X post on Thursday.

This led to a reversal with over 316% returns over the following five months, the analysts said, adding:

“If history repeats, the reversal will begin on April 1st.”

Analyzing Bitcoin’s quarterly performance during the 2022 bear market provides a more cautious interpretation of BTC price history. The data shows Bitcoin recorded four consecutive red quarters during that year.

Losses stacked across the four quarters, bringing the total losses to 64% as the BTC/USD pair closed the year at $16,500 from an opening price of $46,230. This marked one of the harshest drawdowns in Bitcoin’s history. 

As Cointelegraph reported, many analysts expect 2026 to be a bear market year, and a similar stretch of four losing quarters could extend the weakness below the 15-month low of $60,000.

Analyst Solana Sensei shared a chart that focused on Bitcoin’s weekly performance, with the price printing the fifth candlestick in a row. 

This is the longest streak since 2022, making it the second-longest losing streak on record.

In 2022, BTC price saw nine red weeks, dropping to $20,500 from $46,800.

Therefore, while past monthly performance suggests an impending rebound, quarterly and weekly data from 2022 demonstrate that BTC price declines could last longer than expected.

Related: Bitcoin’s consolidation nears ‘turning point’ as $70K comes in focus: Analyst

The current market is “fundamentally different”

Veteran analyst Sykodelic argues that Bitcoin’s current bear phase is “fundamentally different” for several reasons, including the monthly relative strength index (RSI) having already reached the 2015 and 2018 bear market lows.

Sykodelic said that due to the lack of a true overbought expansion in the monthly RSI during the bull phase, market participants will be misguided to expect a symmetric contraction.

“This is yet again another situation in which we look a lot more like 2020 than any other period in time,” the analyst said in a post on X, adding:

“I am not seeing anything that tells me we are in the same style bear market as we have had previously, and everyone should be aware of these differences.”

This suggests the current bear cycle is not following historical patterns, and Bitcoin’s bottom and subsequent recovery could catch many traders off guard.