Trump Wants Ukraine to Stop Striking Russian Refineries. What Would That Mean for the War?

By Sonin’s analysis, complying with Trump’s request would therefore be difficult without broadly curtailing attacks on Russia’s energy sector—something Ukraine does not appear poised to do.

Lennon, however, believes Ukraine could halt refinery strikes without abandoning its broader deep-strike campaign.

“I would not say that halting refinery strikes would necessarily kneecap Ukraine’s deep-strike campaign,” she says. “Ukraine still has other important targets inside Russia, including airfields, ammunition depots, missile and drone production facilities, and logistics hubs.”

The more important issue, she believes, is what would happen if Ukraine chooses to eschew Trump’s request.

“Although European partners have increasingly assumed the brunt of the burden for supporting Ukraine and have demonstrated that they can replace a substantial portion of the financial and military assistance previously provided by the U.S., they have not eliminated Ukraine’s dependence on critical American capabilities,” she says, referring to the Patriot missile interceptors—an area in which she says Europe can supplement U.S. support but cannot replace it.