Crypto funds demonstrated remarkable resilience this week as investment products recorded $1.06 billion in net inflows, effectively terminating a grueling five-week stretch of $4.0 billion in outflows.

Crypto funds see $1 billion resurgence

This pivot comes at a critical juncture for global markets as the escalating US-Iran conflict has introduced severe geopolitical instability following military strikes in late February 2026.

While the broader market context remains defensive due to these tensions, institutional sentiment was buoyed by recent price weakness and technical resets, which large-scale holders interpreted as an attractive entry window.

Regional participation was overwhelmingly positive, with the United States accounting for $957 million of the total inflows despite the geopolitical headwinds. Other key markets including Canada, Germany, and Switzerland also saw continued interest, contributing a combined $94.2 million.

Bitcoin (BTC) remained the primary beneficiary of this trend, capturing $881.5 million in weekly inflows.

However, the market remains polarized as evidenced by $3.7 million flowing into short-bitcoin products, suggesting that a segment of investors is still hedging against potential downside risks linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Ethereum saw a significant resurgence with $116.9 million in inflows, its strongest performance since mid-January, indicating that institutions are looking past short-term volatility toward long-term value.

In the altcoin sector, Solana continues its dominant streak, attracting $53.8 million last week and bringing its year-to-date inflows to $156 million. Chainlink also recorded minor interest with $3.4 million in inflows.

The strong institutional activity suggests that while geopolitical events like the US-Iran strikes create short-term fear, the “smart money” is utilizing the resulting price resets to rebuild positions in core digital assets.

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The Ethereum price enters March after a brutal February that delivered close to 20% losses. ETH has now posted six consecutive red months starting from September 2025, a streak unprecedented in the token’s history. If March finishes in the red, it would extend to seven months, further cementing this as the longest sustained decline Ethereum has ever seen.

While March historically carries a median return of nearly 9% for ETH, the current setup suggests history may offer little guidance. Here is what the data shows.

The Weekly Chart Has Already Broken Down

Even February 2025, which saw a 32% decline, immediately saw a recovery attempt over the next few months. This time, the selling has been relentless, and the weekly chart explains why. Six straight months of red, excluding March (just formed), is no mean bearish feat.

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Since April 7, 2025, the Ethereum price has been trading within a head-and-shoulders pattern. It is a bearish reversal structure in which a central peak (the head) is flanked by two lower peaks (the shoulders). The breakdown confirmed in early January 2026, and it was not a minor dip. It was a structural break.

The measured move from this pattern projects a roughly 53% decline from the breakdown line, targeting approximately $1,320. While that level has not yet been reached, the pattern remains active and unresolved.

Making matters worse, two additional bearish crossovers are forming on the weekly Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which smooth price data to highlight trend direction.

The 50-period EMA is closing in on the 100-period EMA, and the 20-period EMA is approaching the 200-period EMA. The last confirmed crossover — when the 20 EMA crossed below the 50 EMA in early January — preceded a 46% correction.

If these new crossovers confirm, they would reinforce the bearish trend on the higher timeframe.

Ethereum ETF Outflows Offer No Institutional Floor

Unlike Bitcoin, where spot ETF outflows have been steadily declining, Ethereum’s ETF picture is deteriorating. February recorded $369.87 million in net outflows — higher than January’s $353.20 million. This reversed the improving trend that had briefly offered hope when January’s outflows shrank compared to December’s $616.82 million.

This marks four consecutive months of outflows since November 2025, when $1.42 billion exited. The last positive inflow month was October 2025 at $569.92 million.

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For the Ethereum price, this means there is no institutional demand floor forming heading into March. The capital that once supported ETH through ETF channels is withdrawing, and unlike Bitcoin, the bleeding is not slowing down.

HODLers Are Buying, But The Plot Thickens

Against this bearish backdrop, one on-chain metric stands out. Ethereum hodlers — wallets that have held ETH for 155 days or more — have sharply increased their buying. On February 21, the hodler net position change metric was a modest +6,829 ETH. By March 1, it surged to +252,142 ETH, a massive 3,500% spike that on the surface looks like strong conviction.

But context complicates this signal. The last major hodler buying spell began on December 26, 2025, when the Ethereum price was around $2,920. They kept accumulating as the price climbed to $3,350 by January 14. Then the weekly EMA crossover triggered, and the price began falling sharply. Hodlers continued buying through the decline. Their net position only turned negative on February 2, when the price had already dropped to $2,340.

Many of these hodlers are therefore likely trapped between $2,340 and $3,350. The current buying surge may not represent fresh bullish conviction but rather an attempt to average down and break even. Retail investors should be cautious about following this signal blindly — the motivation behind the buying may be survival, not strategy.

But There Is a Reason They Are Buying; And the Key Ethereum Price Levels to Watch

If hodlers are trapped, why are they increasing exposure now, in a weak market? The 12-hour chart may hold the answer.

Between February 12 and February 28, the Ethereum price printed a lower low while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) — a momentum oscillator — printed a higher low. This forms a bullish divergence, a signal that selling momentum is weakening even as the price drops. That divergence has already triggered a bounce, with the Ethereum price rallying approximately 11.7% from the lows.

More importantly, this bounce is shaping an inverse head and shoulders pattern on the 12-hour chart; a bullish reversal structure. This is likely what hodlers are positioning for — a short-term breakout that could help them recover losses from the January trap. The technical setup is real, and the RSI divergence has already been validated by the initial bounce.

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The neckline sits around $2,160–$2,180. If the Ethereum price closes above this level, the measured move projects a roughly 19% rally, targeting approximately $2,590. Before that, the Fibonacci extension levels at $2,050 and $2,400 would serve as intermediate resistance zones.

On the downside, a drop below $1,830 weakens the inverse head and shoulders. A close below $1,790 invalidates the bounce thesis entirely, and the weekly head and shoulders reasserts dominance — placing the $1,320 target back in focus.

The most probable path for March mirrors Bitcoin’s setup: a bounce attempt driven by the 12-hour structure and hodler accumulation, followed by renewed pressure as the weekly trend remains firmly bearish.

The bounce is real, but it is fighting against a much larger breakdown.

Over $80 million in shorts were wrecked in the past hour alone.

Bitcoin’s price is on the move again, this time favoring the bulls. The asset just exploded by several grand in less than an hour, going from just over $65,000 to a multi-day peak of early $69,000.

The altcoins are on the rise as well, with ETH skyrocketing past the coveted $2,000 level, while SOL has neared $90. XRP and BNB have gained over 4% in an hour.

It’s difficult to follow all the geopolitical developments that have taken place in the past 48 hours. Recall that the US and Israel joined forces to attack Iran on Saturday morning, killing its Supreme Leader in the process. The Middle Eastern country retaliated against several nations in the region, including Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and others.

Tension has continued to escalate since then, with US President Trump making numerous warnings toward Iran, while also speculating that the war could last up to four weeks.

Perhaps the most probable reason behind the instant price pump in the cryptocurrency markets now is the upcoming POTUS speech on the situation, which will take place in just a few hours.

🚨TRUMP TO SPEAK ON IRAN CONFLICT AT 11 A.M. ET

Donald Trump will address the Iran war in live remarks at 11 a.m. ET, marking his first direct briefing since Saturday’s strikes. The event will also include a Medal of Honor presentation.

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— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) March 2, 2026

Additionally, Trump said that while the US has used substantial force in its attacks against Iran to this moment, “the big wave” is yet to come.

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Crypto liquidations are on the rise again following the latest set of volatility, with the 24-hour wrecked figures exceeding $400 million. While longs still overhauled shorts on a daily scale, the latter have reigned supreme in the past hour, with $80 million against less than $5 million for longs.

CryptoQuant data shows 472M XRP ($652M) inflow to Binance after strikes on Iran, boosting market uncertainty.

Escalating military conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran over the weekend sent more than 472 million XRP, worth roughly $652 million, to Binance, marking the largest exchange inflow period of February.

The sudden movement of tokens onto the trading platform suggests investors are positioning for potential selling, creating conditions that could pressure XRP’s price in the days ahead.

Geopolitical Shock Waves Hit XRP

Shortly after traditional financial markets closed last Friday, the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran, leading to the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

According to CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost, that timing amplified uncertainty across risk assets, with digital currencies reacting quickly to the geopolitical news. Data shows Binance received over 472 million XRP this past week, with the largest daily spikes occurring in late February.

Moving tokens onto exchanges often signals a willingness to sell or at least positions liquidity closer to the market during turbulent periods, and Darkfost noted that when flows of this size are recorded, they can create conditions for a sudden wave of selling pressure that could affect price action in the short term.

XRP itself went through intense volatility on Saturday, dropping from $1.43 to $1.27 before rebounding after reports first emerged that Khamenei had been killed. The asset recovered to near its starting point as traders digested the news, but the price swing illustrated how geopolitical events are driving short-term moves.

Furthermore, the large exchange inflows come as XRP ETFs continue to see modest activity. After an initial boom following their launch in November 2025 that pushed cumulative net inflows past $1 billion within a month, the pace has slowed considerably. Only $9.55 million entered the funds during the last full week of February, and just $240 million has arrived in over two months.

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XRP Price Holds Support

At the time of writing, the Ripple token was trading around $1.35, down 1.3% in the last 24 hours and 1% over the past seven days per CoinGecko. The asset hit a weekly low of $1.28 and a high of $1.48 during the volatile period, with the $1.30 level providing support during Saturday’s sell-off.

Meanwhile, futures market data from CoinGlass shows $5.37 million in XRP liquidations over the past 24 hours, with longs accounting for $3.70 million of that total. Open interest stands at $2.14 billion, while combined futures and spot trading volume reached about $5.2 billion during the same period. The liquidation figures suggest leveraged long positions took the brunt of the weekend volatility.

The exchange inflow data presents a more complicated picture than price action alone suggests. While the transfers do not confirm immediate selling, amounts of this size can change the trading environment even without a full unwind. As such, the question remains whether this episode marks the beginning of a broader distribution phase or simply short-term panic movements tied to the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Bitcoin Cash has plummeted 22% over the past week, struggling against market trends, while a new decentralized lending protocol, Mutuum Finance, garners interest.

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has fallen 22% over the past week, underperforming the broader crypto market as technical weakness and limited altcoin rotation weigh on price action. While BCH faces sustained selling pressure, a new decentralized lending protocol is drawing attention from more than 19,000 participants during its token sale phase.

Bitcoin Cash extends weekly losses

Bitcoin Cash declined sharply after rejecting resistance near its 50-day simple moving average around $564 earlier this week. The asset broke below the psychological $500 level and continued trending lower, confirming a short-term bearish structure. Analysts noted rejection near the $506.4 Fibonacci level, reinforcing persistent selling pressure.

Technical indicators reflect continued weakness. The 20-day exponential moving average has turned downward, while the RSI7 reading near 30.23 signals oversold conditions. However, the absence of bullish divergence suggests that downside momentum remains intact. A daily close above the 7-day EMA near $521 would be needed to indicate an early shift in short-term momentum.

Sector-wide dynamics have also contributed to BCH’s underperformance. During the same period, Bitcoin gained approximately 2.78%, while the CMC Altcoin Season Index declined to 34, down 5.56% over the week. Bitcoin dominance remained stable around 57.97%, indicating capital concentration in BTC rather than rotation into altcoins. This environment has left BCH exposed to independent selling pressure without broader market support.

In the near term, traders are monitoring the $475–$490 demand zone as a key support area. A sustained hold above this range could trigger a relief rally toward the $507–$520 resistance cluster. A breakdown below $475, however, would likely open the path toward the next support level near $443. For now, the broader bias remains bearish below the $510 level, with recovery dependent on reclaiming higher resistance zones and renewed market participation.

Mutuum Finance

A new decentralized lending protocol has attracted more than 19,000 participants during its ongoing token sale phase, reflecting growing interest in on-chain borrowing and yield strategies. The project has raised over $20.6 million to date, with its native MUTM token priced at $0.04. The V1 version of the protocol is currently live on the Sepolia testnet, where users can simulate lending and borrowing activity ahead of mainnet deployment.

How lending works

The protocol enables users to supply digital assets into liquidity pools and earn yield based on APY. When a user deposits funds, they receive mtTokens as proof of their position in the pool. These mtTokens are interest-bearing and increase in value over time as borrowers pay interest.

For example, if a user deposits $10,000 in USDT into a lending pool with an average APY of 4%, the position could generate approximately $400 in annual passive income, assuming rates remain stable. In return for the deposit, the user receives mtUSDT on a 1:1 basis. The mtUSDT represents their share of the pool and can be withdrawn at any time, subject to available liquidity in the pool.

How borrowing works

Borrowing operates under a collateralized model. Users must deposit crypto assets as collateral before accessing liquidity. Loan-to-Value (LTV) ratios determine how much can be borrowed relative to the collateral posted.

For instance, if a user deposits $2,400 worth of ETH as collateral and the maximum LTV is 75%, they could borrow up to $1,800 in stablecoins. This structure allows users to access liquidity without selling their ETH. If the value of ETH increases over time, the user can repay the borrowed stablecoins and reclaim their collateral, potentially benefiting from price appreciation while maintaining liquidity access.

mtTokens and staking

Beyond earning lending returns, mtTokens can also be staked within the protocol. Users who stake mtTokens become eligible to receive dividends in MUTM tokens. According to the platform model, a portion of the fees generated by lending and borrowing activity is used to purchase MUTM tokens from the open market and distribute them to stakers. This structure connects protocol usage with token distribution and introduces additional buy-side activity linked to platform performance.

With its testnet live, core lending mechanics active, and user participation exceeding 19,000 holders, the protocol continues advancing toward its planned mainnet launch while expanding its lending and borrowing framework.

ProCap Financial (BRR), the first publicly traded agentic finance firm, has purchased 450 bitcoin BTC$68,665.83, increasing its total holdings to 5,457 BTC.

The acquisition makes ProCap the 19th largest publicly traded holder of bitcoin, while lowering the company’s average cost basis per coin.

Chairman and CEO Anthony Pompliano said the company is executing a dual strategy, “buying bitcoin to average down our total cost basis and buying back our own stock when the market misprices it,” adding that both actions are accretive to shareholders. He noted the firm’s disciplined balance sheet has positioned it to take advantage of bitcoin’s pullback from its all time high.

ProCap also repurchased 782,408 shares of its common stock over the past 10 days at a significant discount to net asset value (NAV). The company said the discount to NAV has narrowed during that period and plans to continue buybacks as long as the shares trade below intrinsic value.

BRR shares traded over 3.75% higher during the U.S. morning on Monday, possibly buoyed by a lift in bitcoin’s price, that saw it gain more than 4.5% to sit above $68,500.

UPDATE (March 2, 13:30 UTC): Removes references to 2% lift in BRR in pre-market, qualifying that any increase is on thin volume.

UPDATE (March 2, 15:30 UTC): Adds paragraph on BRR’s price after the market opened instead of its pre-market movement.

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz following US-Israeli strikes on Iran has triggered an unprecedented energy supply crisis, with Asian economies bearing the heaviest burden as tanker traffic through the world’s most critical oil chokepoint grinds to a halt.

Japan and South Korea face the greatest risk, with both nations being overwhelmingly dependent on fossil fuel imports that transit the Strait.

Tanker Traffic at a Standstill

The cost of hiring a supertanker to ship oil from the Middle East to China surged to an all-time high of over $423,000 per day on Monday, doubling from Friday’s levels, according to LSEG data. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps declared the Strait closed and warned it would fire on any vessel attempting passage.

The disruption follows the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in joint US-Israeli strikes on Saturday, which prompted Tehran to launch retaliatory attacks across multiple Gulf states. At least four vessels have been hit in Gulf waters, and major shipping companies and insurers have effectively withdrawn from the corridor.

Kpler confirmed that commercial operators have pulled out after insurers withdrew war-risk coverage, creating a de facto closure. Only a small number of Iranian and Chinese-flagged vessels — many operating outside Western insurance and classification systems — continue to transit.

Asia Most Exposed

Approximately 84% of crude oil and 83% of LNG transiting the Strait in 2024 went to Asian markets, according to the US Energy Information Administration. China, India, Japan, and South Korea alone account for roughly 75% of oil flows through the chokepoint.

A Zero Carbon Analytics report ranks Japan as the most vulnerable nation with a risk score of 6.4, followed by South Korea at 5.3 and India at 4.9. Japan sources 87% of its total energy from imported fossil fuels, while South Korea relies on imports for 81%.

Japan convened a National Security Council meeting to assess the situation, while South Korea’s Prime Minister ordered an emergency government-wide response.

Both countries hold substantial oil reserves as a short-term buffer. Japan’s combined public and private petroleum stockpiles cover approximately 254 days of domestic consumption, while South Korea holds over 210 days of supply.

However, LNG stockpiles tell a different story. Japan has no underground gas storage, and its terminal capacity covers just over one month of consumption, according to the IEA. South Korea faces a similar LNG vulnerability. A prolonged Strait closure would make gas shortages a more immediate threat than oil for both countries, given LNG’s critical role in power generation.

Kpler’s analysis adds that India faces the most acute near-term exposure and is likely to pivot immediately toward Russian crude, while China — which recently moderated Russian crude intake — will likely abandon that restraint if the conflict extends.

Oil Price Forecasts Diverge Sharply

Brent crude settled around $78 per barrel on Monday, up roughly 9% from Friday’s close, with analysts’ projections diverging sharply depending on the duration of the disruption.

The closure creates a dual supply shock — halting current exports while stranding OPEC’s spare capacity behind the blockade. Analyst estimates range from the high $80s under a short-lived disruption to $100–$120 per barrel if the standoff drags on, with risk premiums capable of pushing prices well beyond model forecasts.

Alternative Routes Fall Short

Bypass options are limited. Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and the UAE’s Abu Dhabi pipeline together offer roughly 3.5 million barrels per day of unused capacity — less than 20% of a full closure, according to Rystad. IEA strategic reserve releases could help, but member nations account for less than half of global oil demand.

With Iran declaring “total war” on Israel and the US, the crisis underscores the fragility of fossil fuel supply chains for Asian economies — and may accelerate the push toward energy diversification.

Solana price faces increasing downside risk after repeated rejections at major resistance near $89. Failure to hold key support levels could trigger a deeper corrective move toward $57.

Solana’s (SOL) recent price action has become increasingly technical, with the market struggling to overcome a strong supply zone that continues to cap bullish momentum. Despite multiple recovery attempts, sellers have consistently defended higher levels, preventing a breakout and reinforcing range-bound conditions.

As resistance holds firm, attention now shifts toward critical support zones that may determine the next major directional move.

Solana price key technical points

• Major Resistance: $89 aligns with the value area high of the current trading range.
• Key Support: $77 value area low acts as immediate high timeframe demand.
• Downside Target: Loss of support exposes $57 high timeframe support.

Solana has experienced multiple rejections at the $89 resistance region, a level defined by the value area high within the current trading range. The repeated failure to break above this zone highlights the presence of strong overhead supply. Each rejection reinforces seller dominance and signals that buyers currently lack sufficient momentum to establish trend continuation.

From a price action perspective, repeated rejections at the same level often indicate distribution rather than accumulation. Markets encountering persistent selling pressure at resistance typically rotate back toward areas of lower liquidity to search for demand. In Solana’s case, the next critical level sits near $77, which aligns with the value area low and represents the immediate high timeframe support zone.

The $77 region now becomes a pivotal technical level. Holding this support would maintain the broader trading range and allow price to continue consolidating between established boundaries.

However, a confirmed breakdown below this level would signal structural weakness and increase the probability of a sharper corrective move, even as Solana DEXs deliver CEX-level pricing despite a sharp decline in trading volume, highlighting evolving on-chain liquidity dynamics.

If Solana loses $77 support, the market opens the door for a deeper rotation toward $57 high timeframe support. This level represents a major liquidity zone where previous demand entered the market. A move toward $57 would effectively complete a larger range structure, sweeping the lowest swing low where liquidity is likely resting before any potential reversal attempt.

Market structure analysis reinforces this outlook. Solana remains unable to transition into a bullish trend while resistance continues to reject price advances. The formation of lower highs near resistance suggests weakening momentum, while range dynamics imply that liquidity below price remains an attractive target.

Volume behavior also supports caution. The inability to sustain rallies above resistance without expanding bullish participation indicates that buying interest remains limited at higher prices. Until buyers demonstrate strong acceptance above resistance, downside rotations remain technically favored.

Despite the bearish risks, such corrective moves are not uncommon within broader market cycles. Large trading ranges often develop through multiple rotations between support and resistance before a decisive breakout occurs.

A potential move toward $57 could therefore represent a liquidity reset rather than a long-term trend invalidation, particularly as Step Finance winds down its Solana-based platforms following a January hack that resulted in losses of up to $40 million, adding further pressure to ecosystem sentiment.

What to expect in the coming price action:

Solana’s outlook remains dependent on the $77 support level. Holding this zone may preserve range conditions, while a confirmed breakdown increases the probability of a move toward $57 support.

Until resistance at $89 is reclaimed, bearish rejections continue to favor downside rotation within the broader structure.

Australia is home to just 26 million people, but OKX is betting the country could become one of the most important digital finance markets in the developed world if policymakers move fast enough.

A new report backed by the exchange estimates that Australia could unlock A$24 billion ($17 billion) in annual economic gains from tokenized markets, payments and assets provided lawmakers modernize licensing and market infrastructure rules.

The study by the Digital Finance Cooperative Research Centre argues that digital finance innovation could deliver gains equal to roughly 1% of GDP, driven largely by more efficient foreign exchange, capital markets, and cross-border payments.

Yet on its current regulatory trajectory, Australia is expected to capture just A$1 billion of that potential by 2030, missing out on the vast majority of the so-called digital finance dividend. The gap between A$24 billion and A$1 billion forms the core of the industry’s pitch to the government.

“It’s particularly important in Australia, where productivity is the No. 1 issue that the government is trying to track,” OKX Australia CEO Kate Cooper told CoinDesk in an interview, noting that national productivity growth has been largely flat for the past decade.

Cooper said the idea in the report came from policymakers repeatedly seeking data quantifying crypto’s impact on Australia’s economy.

OKX’s focus on Australia may seem counterintuitive at a time when many exchanges are prioritizing the U.S. — rival exchange Gemini recently left the country, as well as the U.K. and European Union — but Cooper argues the country offers a different kind of advantage.

“We have a broad strategy that is focused on what we call strategic markets, which are markets where there is a competitive advantage to entering the market onshore,” Cooper said.

The strategy hinges on regulation as a moat. In markets like Australia, where licensing standards are strict and compliance costs high, operating onshore can create a defensible position that offshore-only platforms cannot easily replicate.

For OKX, that means investing in local approvals and infrastructure to position itself for institutional flows, particularly as tokenized bonds, stablecoins and digital market infrastructure scale.

In a country with one of the world’s largest pension capital pools, Cooper explained, being regulated and embedded locally is less about retail trading volume and more about long-term access to concentrated capital.

If lawmakers enact appropriate legislation, that capital could help push Australia into the acceleration phase of digital finance adoption.

If not, Australia risks remaining in what Cooper describes as the “death spiral of proof of concepts,” capturing just a fraction of the modeled A$24 billion opportunity while the industry — and its capital — flows offshore.