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UBS downgrades the U.S. stock market. Here’s what has the investment bank worried

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Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., February 25, 2026.

Brendan McDermid | Reuters

UBS’ top equity strategist dialed back his view on U.S. stocks, citing mounting risks from a weakening dollar, stretched valuations and policy turbulence in Washington.

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Andrew Garthwaite, head of global equity strategy at the investment bank, downgraded American equities to “benchmark” in a fully invested global equity portfolio, arguing that the factors that powered years of outperformance are starting to fade.

The dollar risk is a central concern, Garthwaite wrote. UBS forecasts the euro climbing to $1.22 by the end of the first quarter and sees “asymmetric structural downside risks” to the greenback. Historically, when the dollar’s trade-weighted index falls 10%, U.S. equities underperform by roughly 4% in unhedged terms, according to the bank.

Foreign markets are trouncing the U.S. this year as a weaker dollar and cheaper valuations draw capital overseas. The MSCI World ex-US index has gained about 8% in 2026, compared with the little changed performance for the S&P 500. Japan’s Nikkei 225 has rallied 17% year to date, while the Stoxx Europe 600 is up 7%, underscoring a sharp rotation away from American equities. U.S. stocks struggled again Friday as investors fretted over the potential downsides of the artificial intelligence buildout and persistent inflation at home.

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S&P 500 year to date

Another pillar of U.S. stock strength — corporate buybacks — is also losing its edge, the bank said. The buyback yield in the U.S. is now only roughly on par with global peers, eroding what had been a key support for earnings per share growth and investor flows, UBS said. The combined shareholder yield from dividends and buybacks in the U.S. is now about half that of Europe, the bank said.

“The buybacks yield is no longer exceptional and this had been an important driver of funds flow, EPS and valuation,” Garthwaite wrote.

Valuations add to the unease. UBS calculates that the sector-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio for US stocks is 35% above international peers, versus an average premium of about 4% since 2010. Roughly 60% of sectors trade not only at higher multiples than their global counterparts but also above their own historical premium, the strategist wrote.

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Policy volatility under President Donald Trump is another headwind. This year has brought shifts in tariff policy, proposals to cap credit-card interest rates, potential limits on private equity investment in housing, renewed scrutiny of drug pricing and suggestions to curb dividends and buybacks for defense companies, UBS said.

Still, the noted strategist stopped short of turning outright bearish. Garthwaite said the U.S. economy and equities tend to benefit more than peers when markets are in the early phases of a potential bubble. The bank also expects artificial intelligence adoption to outpace most other major regions, with the possible exception of China, helping sustain earnings growth across key industries.

UBS strategist Sean Simonds set a year-end target of 7,500 for the S&P 500, compared with an average forecast of 7,629 among 14 top strategists, according to CNBC Pro’s strategist survey.

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Trump Plans Cuba Takeover, Iran War Heat Drives Bitcoin Crash

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Trump Plans Cuba Takeover, Iran War Heat Drives Bitcoin Crash

Bitcoin fell sharply on February 27 as geopolitical tensions intensified, pulling the price back to around $65,200 after several days of attempts to recover toward $70,000. The drop came as US President Donald Trump suggested the possibility of a “friendly takeover” of Cuba, while Washington simultaneously increased its military posture in Israel.

The combined headlines injected fresh uncertainty into global markets. Crypto, which had been stabilizing, reacted quickly.

Trump on Cuba: “Maybe We Will Do a Friendly Takeover”

Speaking earlier today, Trump said the Cuban government is “in big trouble” and “talking with us,” adding that the US could pursue a “friendly takeover.” He framed Cuba as financially desperate and open to negotiation.

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The comment follows weeks of mounting pressure. Since returning to office in January 2025, Trump reinstated and expanded maximum pressure policies against Havana. 

In late January 2026, he signed an executive order declaring a national emergency related to Cuba and threatening tariffs on any country supplying oil to the island.

That move effectively created an oil blockade. Cuba relies heavily on Venezuelan and Mexican fuel. When shipments were halted under US pressure, the island faced rolling blackouts, airport fuel shortages, and widespread economic strain.

How the Cuba Crisis Escalated

Tensions intensified further this week after a deadly maritime incident. Cuban forces intercepted a US-registered speedboat near their territorial waters. Four people were killed in the exchange. 

Havana described the group as armed infiltrators. Washington denied involvement but launched investigations.

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Meanwhile, Trump’s administration briefly allowed limited humanitarian oil flows through private channels. 

However, the broader economic pressure remains in place.

Against this backdrop, the phrase “friendly takeover” carries weight. It likely implies a negotiated political transition under US leverage, not a military invasion. 

Still, the language is sensitive. Cuba has built its identity around resisting US influence for over six decades.

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US Military Build-Up in Israel

At the same time, the United States has increased its military presence in Israel amid rising tensions with Iran

Advanced fighter jets and additional assets have been positioned in the region. The State Department also authorized the departure of non-essential diplomatic staff.

Although officials describe the posture as deterrence, markets see rising geopolitical risk. The Middle East and the Caribbean now sit under simultaneous US pressure campaigns.

Bitcoin Reacts to Global Risk

Bitcoin had been attempting to reclaim $70,000 in recent sessions. Instead, it reversed sharply, falling more than 3% in 24 hours. The move suggests traders are reducing risk exposure.

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Crypto often reacts to macro uncertainty in two phases. Initially, liquidity tightens and prices drop. Later, if instability persists, some investors rotate into Bitcoin as a hedge.

Bitcoin Crashes Again Amid Geopolitical Concerns. Source: CoinGecko

For now, markets appear to be in the first phase.

With geopolitical tensions expanding on multiple fronts, volatility may remain elevated. Bitcoin’s next move will likely depend on whether diplomatic channels calm the situation — or whether escalation continues.

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Barclays Evaluates Blockchain-based Settlement – “The Defiant”

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Barclays Evaluates Blockchain-based Settlement - "The Defiant"

Barclays is exploring a new platform integrating stablecoins and tokenized deposits.

Barclays is evaluating technology providers for a new platform to integrate stablecoins and tokenized deposits, according to a report from Bloomberg.

The British banking giant is exploring blockchain-based settlement systems in response to growing demand, and could pick a vendor as soon as April, according to people familiar with the matter.

Barclays’ recent activities signify a shift from its previously cautious stance to active investment in blockchain infrastructure. This change aligns with the evolving financial landscape, influenced by regulatory developments like the US GENIUS Act, which established a framework for dollar-backed tokens, and has encouraged institutions to explore blockchain and digital currencies more aggressively.

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Moreover, Barclays has joined a bank-led consortium to explore a reserve-backed digital currency using public blockchain technology. This initiative focuses on G7-pegged assets to enhance cross-border settlements, as highlighted by the Financial Times.

Barclays’ potential embrace of blockchain is part of a broader trend among major financial institutions, including JPMorgan and HSBC, who are also investing in digital infrastructure. This strategic direction by Barclays underscores the growing importance of blockchain technology in traditional finance, with stablecoins playing a crucial role in future payment systems.

This article was generated with the assistance of AI workflows.

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Bitcoin manipulation claims face pushback as ETFs reverse 5wk outflow

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Crypto Breaking News

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) traded in a tight band this week as market participants weighed chatter about a purported “10 a.m. dump” tied to a prominent quantitative trading firm. The narrative gained traction after Terraform Labs’ court-appointed administrator filed a suit alleging insider trading connected to the Terra ecosystem’s May 2022 collapse. Yet data from multiple trackers points to a more diffuse market dynamic, with no single actor reliably pushing Bitcoin lower through the open, and liquidity environments shading toward ETF inflows and broader risk sentiment. On the data side, spot Bitcoin demand returned with vigor as exchange-traded products (ETPs) drew fresh capital, and institutional names continued to tilt perceptions about how crypto balance sheets are managed in a stressed environment. Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) has also faced its own set of pressures, including large corporate balance sheets reporting losses amid a broad downturn.

The week’s discourse extended beyond the 10 a.m. narrative. In the U.S., demand for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds picked up after weeks of negative flow, with several consecutive days recording inflows. Data from Farside Investors shows spot Bitcoin ETFs taking in more than $1 billion across three straight days, including $254 million on Thursday, underscoring renewed appetite among institutions and retail buyers alike. The rhythm of inflows not only suggests a stabilizing bid for Bitcoin itself but also highlights how investors are navigating the cryptoeconomy through regulated vehicles as volatility remains elevated in several corners of the market. Within this broader context, the appetite for regulated Bitcoin exposure appears to have survived the 2022–2023 era of freestanding volatility and the occasional liquidity drought that accompanied broader macro risk-off periods.

Other notable developments touched on the corporate side of Ethereum. Bitmine Immersion Technologies, a leading corporate Ether (ETH) treasury holder, appears to be sitting on a large unrealized loss, with estimates around an $8.8 billion gap between current prices and the company’s cost basis as Ether prices remained depressed. The Bitmine balance sheet illustrates how even industry participants with sizable on-chain exposure can face material impairment when token prices retreat from peaks seen in prior years. Bitmine’s holdings, tracked by third-party services, reveal an average cost basis near the mid-$3,000s per Ether, amplifying the impact of the latest price movements on the treasury’s reported economics. Despite the paper losses, Bitmine continues to accrue Ether in the portfolio, signaling a willingness to sustain a long-term stake even in a downturn environment. The broader Ether narrative continues to be shaped by ongoing network developments, regulatory scrutiny, and the evolving macro backdrop that has challenged risk assets across crypto and traditional markets.

Traders also watched notable on-chain activity linked to high-profile figures. Ethereum’s co-founder Vitalik Buterin has been unloading Ether in what he described as plans to earmark roughly $45 million worth of tokens for privacy-oriented projects. Buterin’s wallets were reported to hold about 241,000 Ether early in February but declined to roughly 224,000 ETH as selling continued into the month. On-chain data indicates the majority of the sales were routed through decentralized-exchange aggregators, such as CoW Protocol, using numerous smaller swaps rather than a single large block. These patterns are consistent with a technique used by some traders to minimize market impact when converting large holdings into other assets or currencies. The disclosures add a human dimension to a market that often abstracts price action into charts and models, reminding readers that individual actors can influence the pace of selling without necessarily altering the longer-term crypto narrative.

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In parallel, the market highlighted Ethereum-related corporate dynamics in another corner of the ecosystem. Bitmine’s broader Ether exposure has remained a focal point for analysts who question whether a broader structural issue could be emerging for Ether’s investment case. The situation underscores the sensitivity of corporate treasuries to price swings in ETH and the challenges of budgeting liquidity while capital markets watch for deeper shifts in DeFi and staking economics. The broader implications for corporate treasuries are not limited to Bitmine; 10x Research and other researchers have flagged that Ether is trading around levels that test whether the downturn is cyclical or signals deeper structural issues. The market’s emphasis on cost basis and unrealized losses among large corporate holders highlights the ongoing tension between long-term holdings and near-term price weakness, a dynamic that informs decisions across institutional wallets and treasury strategies.

Meanwhile, within the DeFi sector, leading lending protocols continued to expand their scale and institutional appeal. Aave, for instance, reported crossing $1 trillion in cumulative lending volume, marking a historic milestone for on-chain finance. Aave’s leadership in the space reflects a broader push to normalize DeFi as a credible input to traditional finance, with the project emphasizing its role as a foundational liquidity network. The firm’s institutional outreach has included the launch of Aave Horizon, a dedicated lending market on Ethereum designed to enable traditional finance firms and other large investors to borrow stablecoins against real-world assets. Early participants included VanEck, WisdomTree and Securitize, signaling that established asset managers are paying attention to the potential of tokenized, on-chain liquidity. In a broader context, the DeFi sector has also pointed to the possibility of tokenizing “abundance assets”—such as solar energy and robotics—though the path to mass adoption and regulatory clarity remains a work in progress. Stani Kulechov, CEO of Aave Labs, has framed the expansion as part of a long-term strategy to connect traditional finance with a scalable on-chain liquidity network, and he has publicly discussed the potential for DeFi to underpin broader financial infrastructure in the years ahead.

Crucially, the DeFi landscape continues to contend with shifting incentives. Curve Finance founder Michael Egorov argued that DeFi must move away from token emissions as the primary engine of liquidity. In an interview with Cointelegraph, Egorov contended that protocols should generate real revenue rather than rely on inflationary token incentives, noting that the DeFi “summer” era of 2020—when triple-digit TVLs drew flows into new protocols—represented a very different market environment. He argued that token velocity and speculative premiums no longer reliably translate into price increases, pointing to a broader re-prioritization of value drivers as TVL (total value locked) has fallen and liquidity becomes more costly to obtain. Data from DefiLlama shows DeFi TVL down roughly 38% over six months, with total value locking sliding from about $158 billion to around $98 billion as of this week.

Market reaction and key details

The week’s price action and commentary reflect a market that remains highly data-driven, with inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs providing a counterweight to volatility in altcoins and tokens linked to DeFi. The stronger ETF demand aligns with a broader willingness among investors to obtain regulated exposure to Bitcoin, even as macro sensitivities persist. At the same time, the narrative around a single actor’s influence—famously associated with a “10 a.m. dump”—has not withstood scrutiny from market observers who emphasize liquidity depth, hedging activity, and the role of delta-neutral strategies that blend spot purchases with offsetting futures. CryptoQuant’s head of research noted that the described activity is not unique to a single firm; the pattern of buying spot exposure while selling futures is a common tactic for funds seeking to capture spreads rather than directional price moves. The takeaway for traders is that short-term price dips are not reliable indicators of a concerted manipulation scheme, especially when liquidity flows and hedging strategies mask net exposure in public filings.

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On the corporate front, Bitmine’s situation remains a focal point for those tracking Ether as a treasury asset. The company’s paper losses, coupled with Ether’s broader price motion, have raised questions about the economics of large, long-hold Ether portfolios and the risk management practices that accompany such holdings. While Bitmine continues to accumulate Ether, the scale of the paper loss underscores the challenge of navigating a downturn when large balance sheets are deeply underwater relative to their cost basis. The market will be watching whether Bitmine’s strategy evolves toward more cost-efficient accumulation or whether the firm takes a more cautious stance as price dynamics evolve.

From a systemic perspective, Aave’s milestones highlight the ongoing maturation of DeFi as a facet of institutional finance. Surpassing $1 trillion in cumulative lending volume is not just a numeral milestone; it signals a deeper level of trust among builders and users who rely on on-chain lending as part of a diversified liquidity strategy. The Horizon initiative mirrors a broader trend: traditional finance is increasingly engaging with regulated, permissioned paths to access decentralized liquidity. This alignment with institutions is likely to affect the headlines around DeFi, shaping capital flows and the pace at which new use cases—such as tokenized real-world assets—are tested in real markets. Meanwhile, Curve’s call for revenue-driven models presents a practical pivot for protocols developed during periods of token-driven growth, a shift that market participants must evaluate against ongoing competition for liquidity and funding in a tightening environment.

Why it matters

For investors, the week’s events underscore a composite picture: Bitcoin’s regulatory-friendly exposure through ETFs is expanding, while the DeFi ecosystem is increasingly defined by revenue-generating models rather than pure token incentives. This implies a potential recalibration of risk premiums and valuation frameworks as regulated products coexist with on-chain liquidity that is maturing toward more robust, revenue-backed business models.

For builders and developers, the emphasis on real revenue streams signals a shift in product design. Protocols may prioritize sustainable fee structures, cross-chain interoperability, and institutional-grade risk controls to appeal to larger asset managers and banks. The Aave Horizon launch illustrates how regulated channels can complement permissionless finance, enabling institutions to access liquidity in familiar formats while preserving the transparency and programmability that define DeFi at its core.

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For corporate treasuries and risk managers, the discussion around cost basis and unrealized losses in Ether highlights the dual challenge of balancing long-term exposure with the need to monitor liquidity and price volatility. The Bitmine case, in particular, emphasizes the potential for material impairment in treasury-heavy strategies if market conditions deteriorate further. The unfolding dynamic raises questions about optimal hedging configurations, diversification across assets, and whether to pursue more active risk management in periods of extended drawdowns.

What to watch next

  • Continuing ETF inflows: Watch Farside data for the next three weeks to confirm whether the momentum in spot Bitcoin ETFs persists.
  • Terraform/Jane Street developments: Monitor the ongoing legal actions and any new filings related to insider-trading allegations and market impact.
  • Bitmine updates: Track Bitmine’s quarterly disclosures and any changes in their Ether balance strategy or cost-basis metrics.
  • Aave Horizon uptake: Observe institutional participation and any new assets added to on-chain lending markets, plus regulatory updates affecting DeFi lending.

Sources & verification

  • Terraform Labs administrator filing alleging insider trading tied to Terra’s collapse (legal filing / court documents).
  • Farside Investors data on US-listed spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, including the $254 million on Thursday.
  • Bitmine Immersion Technologies’ Ether treasury data and reported unrealized losses (Bitminetracker / on-chain analytics).
  • Vitalik Buterin’s ETH balance trajectory and on-chain sale activity (Arkham data; Lookonchain lookups).
  • Aave’s cumulative lending volume milestone and information on Aave Horizon’s institutional program (Aave communications / official updates).

Market reaction and key details

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) showed resilience in the face of speculation about manipulated moves at market open, with analysts noting that a tissue of hedges and delta-neutral strategies can obscure the true net exposure of large traders. The broader takeaway is that the market did not exhibit a durable, company-driven selloff that could sustain a prolonged downturn. In parallel, the inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs—backed by data from Farside Investors—illustrate renewed demand for regulated vehicles that offer exposure to the flagship asset without requiring direct custody of coins. This demand appears to be supported by a mix of retail and institutional investors who seek the safety net of regulated products in times of cross-asset volatility. The IBIT exposure—iShares Bitcoin Trust—in particular has been a focal point for discussions about how institutions implement regulated exposure to Bitcoin, though the specifics of holdings and hedges remain part of ongoing disclosure and market interpretation.

Ethereum’s corporate dynamics continued to weigh on Ether’s price narrative. Bitmine Immersion Technologies—one of the largest corporate Ether treasuries—faces what analysts describe as a substantial paper loss, reflecting how fast-moving price action can widen gaps between market price and cost basis for large holders. The situation adds a layer of complexity to the broader ETH story, where on-chain use cases, staking economics, and regulatory considerations converge to shape long-run demand and supply. Buterin’s recent activity—selling portions of ETH to fund privacy initiatives—also underscores how even celebrated crypto figures navigate the tension between philanthropic or strategic goals and the practical realities of balance sheet management in a down market. The execution path—routing sales through CoW Protocol to avoid market impact—also highlights the sophistication of modern on-chain trading tactics and their implications for liquidity and price formation.

On the DeFi front, the milestone of surpassing $1 trillion in cumulative lending volume for Aave marks a watershed moment. It signals that the sector is increasingly viewed as a mature and scalable component of a diversified crypto finance stack. Aave Horizon’s launch, designed to attract institutional capital to real-world asset-backed lending against stablecoins, suggests a deliberate bridging of on-chain and off-chain opportunities. The focus on tangible revenue generation—rather than token emissions—reflects a broader industry shift toward sustainability and governance-driven growth, a theme echoed by Curve Finance founder Michael Egorov, who argues for a move away from inflationary incentives toward revenue-backed models. The DeFi ecosystem’s TVL decline—down about 38% over the last six months to roughly $98 billion—serves as a cautionary backdrop, reminding readers that liquidity, regulatory clarity, and the cost of capital continue to shape expectations for long-term growth.

Why it matters

For traders and investors, the week’s data emphasizes that regulated exposure and on-chain liquidity are not mutually exclusive trends. ETFs and regulated products continue to draw capital into Bitcoin, while the DeFi ecosystem demonstrates resilience through major milestones and institutional collaborations. This duality suggests that crypto markets may be entering a phase where traditional financial instruments and decentralized finance operate in closer harmony, each contributing to a more nuanced risk-adjusted landscape.

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For developers and ecosystem builders, the shift toward revenue-driven models signals a need to retool incentive structures and monetize real-world utility. Projects that align fees, services, and governance with measurable revenue streams could gain greater legitimacy in the eyes of institutions and auditors. This transition is likely to shape product roadmaps, fundraising strategies, and regulatory conversations as the industry continues its evolution toward a more mature financial stack.

What to watch next

  • Next round of ETF inflows and potential shifts in spot BTC demand (watch Farside data and ETF issuer updates).
  • Regulatory and legal developments around Terraform Labs and Jane Street; any new allegations or disclosures could influence market sentiment.
  • Bitmine’s continued Ether balance management and cost-basis updates; monitor any changes in treasury strategy.
  • Institutional uptake of Aave Horizon and broader DeFi adoption signals, including new asset types and asset-backed lending markets.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Inside LinkedIn Founder Reid Hoffman’s Ethereum Holdings

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Inside LinkedIn Founder Reid Hoffman's Ethereum Holdings


Former PayPal colleagues split strategies, as Hoffman goes long on Ethereum while Musk aligns with Bitcoin through corporate treasuries.

Reid Hoffman, the prominent venture capitalist and co-founder of the world’s leading professional networking service, LinkedIn, is heavily invested in Ethereum, according to Arkham Intelligence.

Data cited by the firm shows Hoffman holds $6.1 million worth of ETH in a publicly known address. He also owns a CryptoPunk NFT, which was purchased for 150 ETH late last year.

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Investment in Xapo

Hoffman has been a long-time supporter of crypto. He even led Greylock’s 2014 Series A investment in Xapo, a firm that built a Bitcoin wallet platform. He had then commented,

“Bitcoin has the potential to be a massively disruptive technology. It is the leading digital currency and it’s growing fast. As an investor and technologist, I am interested in bitcoin on three levels: As an asset, (i.e. a digital alternative to gold); as a currency (to create a new transactional layer on the internet); and as a platform (to build alternative kinds of financial applications).”

Nearly a decade later, in August 2023, Hoffman announced he would not act as a general partner in Greylock’s upcoming funds and instead opted to remain involved as a venture partner.

Meanwhile, his former PayPal colleague Elon Musk is backing Bitcoin, as Tesla, Inc. and SpaceX hold a combined $1.3 billion in Bitcoin on their balance sheets.

Short-Lived Gains

Earlier this week, Bitcoin and Ethereum each attracted gains after positive sentiment generated by a major US political speech by Donald Trump. But on Friday, both assets were slightly lower in early trading as broader technology stocks retreated.

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Additionally, broader institutional activity shows large stakeholders dynamically adjusting positions: analytics data indicate that SpaceX moved over 1,000 BTC (approximately $94.5 million in value at that time) to Coinbase Prime in late 2025 amid speculation about the company’s future public offering.

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On the Ethereum side, significant planned divestments by Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin have drawn attention in recent weeks for the magnitude of tokens moved, even though the market remained largely unfazed by these sales.

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South Korea National Tax Service’s Mistake Resulted In $4.8 Million Crypto Loss

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South Korea National Tax Service’s Mistake Resulted In $4.8 Million Crypto Loss

South Korea National Tax Service just made a costly mistake resulting a huge crypto loss.

In an official press release, the agency published unredacted photos that exposed crypto wallet seed phrases. Within hours, an unknown actor used the information to drain 4 million Ethereum-based tokens, nominally worth $4.8 million, from seized wallets before returning them.

The funds were not dumped, but the incident exposes a serious operational security failure. It highlights the risks governments face when handling self-custodied digital assets without proper technical safeguards.

Key Takeaways

  • The Lapse: NTS press materials included high-resolution images of handwritten recovery phrases for seized Ledger hardware wallets.
  • The Asset: 4 million Pre-Retogeum (PRTG) tokens were taken, holding a theoretical value of $4.8 million but near-zero market liquidity.
  • The Outcome: The attacker funded the wallets with ETH for gas, moved the tokens, and eventually returned them to the original address.

The Leak: Tax Agency Publishes Ethereum Private Keys

On February 26, the National Tax Service announced it had seized roughly 8.1 billion KRW, about $5.61 million, from repeat tax delinquents. To showcase the enforcement action, officials released photos of the confiscated items, including a display labeled “Case 3.”

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Source: ntw

The problem was in the details. The images showed Ledger hardware wallets next to a sheet of paper with the 12-word seed phrases fully visible.

A local professor described the mistake bluntly, comparing it to publicly inviting someone to empty your wallet. The incident highlights a basic but critical gap in technical handling, especially as authorities increasingly seize and manage digital assets.

On-Chain Data: The Swipe and Return

On-chain data shows the wallets were drained soon after the photos went public. An unknown actor first sent a small amount of ETH to cover gas fees, then transferred 4 million Pre-Retogeum (PRTG) tokens to a new address.

Source: Etherscan

That amount represented roughly 40% of the token’s total supply. While early reports valued the stash at $4.8 million, liquidity tells a different story. The only active trading pair shows minimal volume, and even a small sell order would have crushed the price. Cashing out at scale was nearly impossible.

The tokens were later returned to the original wallets. Whether this was a white-hat action or simple realization that the assets were illiquid is unclear.

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The episode highlights a basic custody failure. The original owner used a hardware wallet for security, but that protection was undone when authorities photographed the seed phrase. The NTS has not yet issued a detailed statement, and the incident raises questions about how seized crypto assets will be handled going forward.

Discover: The best new crypto in the world

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Analysts Reject Jane Street Bitcoin Manipulation, Bitcoin ETF Demand Rises

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Analysts Reject Jane Street Bitcoin Manipulation, Bitcoin ETF Demand Rises

This week, rumors of a “10 a.m. Bitcoin dump” blamed on quantitative trading company Jane Street gained traction online after it was sued by Terraform Labs’ court-appointed administrator, but market watchers said the data does not support a consistent, company-driven selloff.

The accusations mounted a day after Jane Street was sued by Terraform Labs’ administrator amid allegations of insider trading that worsened the collapse of Terra’s algorithmic stablecoin ecosystem in May 2022.

Elsewhere in the market, demand for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds returned after five consecutive weeks of net negative outflows. US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs took in over $1 billion in three consecutive days this week, with $254 million in cumulative inflows on Thursday, according to Farside Investors data.

Corporate Ether treasuries also came under pressure. The leader in corporate Ether (ETH), Bitmine Immersion Technologies, was seen facing an $8.8 billion paper loss on its holdings amid the ongoing market downturn.

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US Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows, in USD million. Source: Farside Investors

Analysts reject Jane Street “10 a.m. dump” claims, say Bitcoin isn’t easily manipulated

Cryptocurrency investors accused quantitative trading company Jane Street of pressuring Bitcoin’s price with a daily, programmatic sell-off at the US market open, but market analysts and data suggest the pattern is not consistent, and no single company can force Bitcoin into a prolonged bear market.

The claims surged online a day after Terraform Labs’ court-appointed administrator sued Jane Street, alleging insider trading tied to transactions that worsened the collapse of Terra’s algorithmic stablecoin ecosystem in May 2022.

Several market watchers, including crypto influencer Justin Bechler, have argued that Jane Street’s holding of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust exchange-traded fund (ETF), known as IBIT, could mask a net short Bitcoin position through hedges that do not appear in public filings. Bechler argued that Jane Street conducted coordinated algorithmic selling of Bitcoin at 10 a.m. EST daily, manipulating the Bitcoin (BTC) price to buy the ETF at a discount.

”When Jane Street reports holding $790 million in IBIT shares, the filing tells you nothing about whether those shares are hedged by puts, offset by short futures, or wrapped in a collar that makes the firm’s net Bitcoin exposure zero or even negative,” wrote Bechler, adding that the ”actual position could be a massive short that looks like a long because the offsetting half of the trade is invisible under current disclosure rules.”

CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, cautioned that the activity Bechler described is not unique to one company. He said buying spot exposure while selling futures is a common approach for delta-neutral funds seeking to capture spreads rather than directional price moves.

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Jane Street’s latest 13-F filing also disclosed holdings in Strategy, as well as sizable positions in Bitcoin mining companies Bitfarms, Cipher Mining and Hut 8.

Source: Julio Moreno

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Vitalik sells 17,000 ETH in one month after earmarking $45 million for privacy

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has reduced his Ether balance by about 17,000 ETH in one month after announcing plans to earmark $45 million worth of tokens for privacy projects.

Buterin’s wallets tracked by Arkham held about 241,000 Ether (ETH) in early February, before a series of outflows reduced the combined balance to 224,000 ETH on Tuesday.

The reduction came amid continued selling by Buterin, including about 2,961 Ether worth $6.6 million over a three-day period earlier in the month. Onchain analysts reported that this accelerated recently as he sold $7 million worth of tokens in three days.

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Buterin’s ETH balance declines since February. Source: Arkham

Arkham Intelligence data shows the ETH sales were routed via decentralized exchange (DEX) aggregator CoW Protocol using numerous smaller swaps instead of one large transaction, a method typically employed to minimize market impact.

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Bitmine paper loss nears $8.8 billion as Ether slump tests cyclical thesis

Corporate Ether treasuries are coming under increasing pressure as the crypto downturn deepens, with analysts warning the market is approaching a make-or-break phase for Ether’s investment case.

Bitmine Immersion Technologies, one of the biggest corporate holders of Ether (ETH), is sitting on a large unrealized loss as ETH trades well below the company’s average acquisition price, according to third-party tracker Bitminetracker. Some estimates put Bitmine’s paper losses in the $8.8 billion range after Ether’s slide over recent months.

ETH’s price has fallen 60% during the past six months, dropping well below Bitmine’s average cost basis of $3,843 per token, Bitminetracker data shows.

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Crypto research outlet 10x Research said Monday that Ether is now trading near valuation and cost-basis levels that test whether the asset is simply in a cyclical downturn or entering a period of deeper, structural weakness.

 “Investors must therefore assess carefully whether the asset is simply in a cyclical downturn or entering a phase of deeper structural impairment.”

Bitmine continues to buy ETH despite the mounting paper losses. Last week, Bitmine acquired 45,749 Ether at an average aggregate cost basis of $1,992 per ETH, signaling confidence from the world’s largest Ether treasury firm.

Source: 10x Research

Big Wall Street participants are maintaining exposure to Bitmine despite the market downturn.

The top 11 Bitmine shareholders, including Morgan Stanley, Ark Investment Management and asset manager BlackRock, have all increased their exposure to the treasury company during the fourth quarter of 2025.

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Bitmine’s stock price has fallen by about 59% over the past six months and traded at $19.68 in the pre-market on Monday, data from Google Finance showed.

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Aave surpasses $1 trillion in lending volume amid institutional expansion

Decentralized finance protocol Aave has surpassed $1 trillion in cumulative lending volume, marking a historic first in the DeFi industry.

“A decade ago, DeFi and Aave didn’t exist. They were just ideas. Today, Aave stands as the backbone of onchain lending, powering a new financial system that is open, global, and unstoppable,” Aave Labs CEO Stani Kulechov said in an X post on Wednesday.

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The feat marked another step toward Aave’s goal of becoming the “largest, most efficient liquidity network in the world,” Kulechov added. “One that builders, banks, and fintechs plug into by default, fundamentally improving liquidity and cost structures across global finance.”

Source: Aave

In August, Aave Labs launched Aave Horizon, a new lending market on Ethereum, specifically for traditional finance firms and other institutional investors to borrow stablecoins against real-world assets.

VanEck, WisdomTree and Securitize were among the first participants to use Aave’s institutional offering.

On Feb. 15, Kulechov said DeFi lending could benefit from tokenizing “abundance assets,” such as solar, batteries for energy storage and robotics for labor. He expects those assets to be worth a combined $50 trillion by 2050.

Kulechov originally launched Aave as ETHLend in November 2017 before rebranding to Aave in September 2018. It now secures over $27.2 billion in total value locked, enabling users to earn interest on deposits and borrow instantly using crypto as collateral.

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Aave leads several prominent DeFi lending platforms in TVL, including Morpho, JustLend, SparkLend, Maple, Kamin Lend and Compound Finance, each of which holds over $1 billion in total value locked.

Aave has generated over $83.3 million in fees over the last 30 days, nearly four times that of its next-closest competitor, Morpho.

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Curve founder says DeFi must ditch token emissions for real revenue

Decentralized finance (DeFi) can no longer rely on inflationary token incentives to sustain growth, according to Curve Finance founder Michael Egorov. 

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In an interview with Cointelegraph, Egorov said protocols must generate real revenue rather than depend on emissions to attract liquidity.

“Your yield should come from revenues, not from tokens,” Egorov told Cointelegraph. “You need real revenues flowing.” He added that if a token “is not doing something, maybe it’s better for you to not do token at all.”

Egorov contrasted the current environment with the “DeFi summer” of 2020, when triple-digit and even 1,000% annual percentage rates drew capital into new protocols. He said that at the time, speculative premiums drove token prices and bootstrapped total value locked (TVL) for protocols. 

“Right now, news doesn’t change prices of tokens anymore,” he told Cointelegraph, arguing that users have “re-evaluated the risks.”

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DeFi TVL in the last six months. Source: DefiLlama

His comments came as DeFi’s TVL has fallen about 38% over the past six months, according to DefiLlama. Data from the analytics platform shows TVL dropped from $158 billion on Aug. 23, 2025, to about $98 billion as of Monday.

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DeFi market overview

According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, most of the 100 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization ended the week in the green.

The Pippin (PIPPIN) token rose 55% as the week’s biggest gainer in the top 100, followed by the Decred (DCR) token, up over 44% during the past week.

Total value locked in DeFi. Source: DefiLlama

Thanks for reading our summary of this week’s most impactful DeFi developments. Join us next Friday for more stories, insights and education regarding this dynamically advancing space.