Two Chinese container ships linked to Cosco briefly moved toward the Strait of Hormuz on Friday before turning back near Iranian waters, adding to market concern over shipping access in the Gulf. 

Meanwhile, the moves came as Iran’s Revolutionary Guard repeated that traffic tied to countries aligned with the United States and Israel would not be allowed through the waterway, according to a Bloomberg report.

The CSCL Indian Ocean and CSCL Arctic Ocean headed northeast from waters near Dubai before making U-turns close to Larak and Qeshm islands, near the narrow entrance to the Strait of Hormuz. The vessels are linked to China’s state-owned Cosco Shipping.

Iran turned back two Chinese ships on Friday, while the IRGC said it had forced three container ships of different nationalities to withdraw. The guard also said the strait was “closed” for shipping to and from ports tied to Iran’s “Zionist-American enemies.”

The Associated Press reported that Iran has been operating what analysts described as a de facto control system for vessels moving through Hormuz. Under that system, some ships have been required to pass through Iranian-controlled routes or seek approval before transit.

Reuters also reported that the UAE is now willing to support an international force to help reopen the strait. That report followed a wider drop in shipping traffic and growing concern over energy flows through one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints.

Crypto market falls as traders react to war risk

Bitcoin and Ethereum both traded lower on Friday as investors responded to renewed Middle East risk. Bitcoin last traded at $66,619, down about 4.0% on the day, while Ethereum traded at $1,990, also down about 3.9%.

Some social media posts claimed Iran had destroyed another tanker in Hormuz, but Reuters results reviewed here did not confirm that specific claim. 

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), said it added another $600 million to its investment in prediction market platform Polymarket, closing out a previously announced funding agreement between the two firms.

The new capital comes on top of a $1 billion investment ICE made in October. ICE also plans to buy up to $40 million in additional shares from existing holders, bringing its total commitment close to $2 billion. The company said the investment will not materially affect its financial results.

Polymarket runs a marketplace where users trade on the outcome of real-world events, from elections to economic data releases. A trader, for example, might buy shares that pay out if inflation rises above a specified level. Prices shift in real time, reflecting crowd expectations.

The backing from ICE gives Polymarket more than capital. It ties the platform to one of the upcoming names in global markets. Rival platform Kalshi recently raised more than $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation, roughly double its previous mark. The company is already generating an estimated $1.5 billion in annual revenue, highlighting strong demand for event-based trading.

Investor interest has grown even as lawmakers question whether prediction markets are vulnerable to manipulation or insider activity. These concerns could shape how regulators treat both Polymarket and its peers in the coming years.

Polymarket has taken steps to position itself for that scrutiny. It acquired a licensed exchange and clearinghouse earlier this year while expanding its political and financial ties. It also recently announced a partnership with Palantir and TWG AI to build a surveillance system aimed at detecting suspicious trading and manipulation in its sports prediction markets.

ICE’s investment signals that large, traditional market operators see potential in the sector. If prediction markets gain broader approval, they could sit alongside stocks and futures as another way for traders to express views on the forthcoming events.

Quick Overview

• Australian regulators impose $10M penalty on Binance for systematic client misclassification
• Over 85% of Australian clients wrongly categorized, granting inappropriate derivative access
• Retail traders suffered combined losses exceeding $12M from risky products
• Flawed verification processes allowed unqualified users to bypass safety measures
• Federal Court ruling follows license cancellation and business shutdown

Australian regulators have imposed a $10 million penalty on Binance following discoveries of systematic client categorization failures that granted retail investors access to hazardous derivative instruments. The decision focuses on operational deficiencies within Binance Australia Derivatives. The judgment reveals substantial breakdowns in customer verification, regulatory oversight, and investor safety protocols.

Systematic Client Categorization Failures Put Retail Investors at Risk

Federal Court proceedings revealed that Binance incorrectly categorized over 85% of its Australian customer base as wholesale participants. A total of 524 retail investors gained unauthorized entry to sophisticated derivative instruments lacking mandatory protective measures. These violations spanned the period from July 2022 through April 2023.

The exchange permitted users to make multiple attempts at qualification assessments until achieving passing scores on necessary thresholds. Personnel neglected to authenticate documentation and investor declarations throughout the registration process. These practices undermined protective mechanisms established to shield retail market participants.

Binance erroneously granted approval to certain applicants under professional or exempted categories without conducting adequate verification. Users obtained entry to high-stakes financial products despite failing to meet eligibility standards. This oversight directly resulted in monetary damages throughout the impacted customer segment.

Regulatory Violations and Monetary Consequences

Binance acknowledged numerous violations of Australian financial services regulations. The platform failed to distribute required disclosure documentation and neglected to establish appropriate market targeting criteria. Additionally, it operated without a compliant dispute resolution mechanism.

Wrongly classified customers experienced substantial monetary setbacks throughout their trading operations. They sustained approximately $8.66 million in trading losses while paying close to $3.89 million in transaction fees. Combined financial damage surpassed $12 million.

Binance has already distributed over $13 million in restitution payments to impacted customers. Regulatory bodies additionally mandated that Binance assume legal expenses connected to enforcement proceedings. Overall financial repercussions escalated well beyond the imposed penalty.

Enforcement Measures and Industry-Wide Ramifications

Regulatory authorities launched investigations into Binance Australia’s operations during 2022 after initial compliance irregularities surfaced. Subsequently, officials revoked its financial services authorization in April 2023. This enforcement action compelled Binance to terminate its domestic derivatives operations.

Officials stressed that Binance neglected to establish fundamental compliance infrastructure from inception. Insufficient personnel education and supervision enabled recurring registration mistakes. Authorities characterized the violations as institutional rather than sporadic incidents.

This ruling establishes significant precedent for international cryptocurrency platforms entering regulated jurisdictions. Organizations must deploy rigorous customer verification protocols and sustain compliance structures from operational commencement. Binance currently encounters heightened regulatory examination alongside persistent oversight challenges across multiple territories.

TLDR:

• Bitcoin whales accumulated over 61K BTC in one month despite price hovering near key support levels
• Retail wallets matched whale accumulation pace, adding nearly 0.42% to holdings during market dip
• Historical trends show rallies often start when whales buy while retail sells, not current pattern
• Traders focus on $67K to $69K levels as Bitcoin remains range-bound with short-term setups forming

Bitcoin accumulation trend remains active as large and small holders continue adding to positions despite recent price weakness near the $68,000 level.

Data from Santiment shows coordinated accumulation across key wallet tiers, even as short-term price action stays range-bound.

This pattern reflects steady positioning during uncertainty, with market participants responding differently across timeframes while maintaining exposure to Bitcoin.

Whale and Retail Wallets Move in Parallel

Santiment data shows that wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC added 61,568 BTC over the past month. This represents a 0.45% increase in holdings during a period of price retracement.

The accumulation occurred while Bitcoin briefly traded near $68,100, indicating sustained interest from larger market participants.

At the same time, smaller wallets holding less than 0.01 BTC also increased their holdings. Retail participants recorded a 0.42% rise over the same timeframe.

This places both cohorts on nearly identical accumulation paths, which is not always typical in similar market conditions.

Santiment shared this data publicly, noting that both whales and retail continue to accumulate despite macroeconomic uncertainty.

The firm also pointed out that historical cycles often behave differently. In previous cycles, strong upward moves followed periods where large holders accumulated while retail reduced exposure.

The current structure, therefore, presents a mixed signal. While accumulation is ongoing, the alignment between retail and large wallets suggests a more complex market phase. Price movement remains constrained, with no clear breakout confirmed yet.

Short-Term Trading Levels Remain in Focus

Market participants are also watching short-term price levels closely. Trader Lennaert Snyder outlined a cautious approach in a recent update.

He noted that Bitcoin is trading near the previous weekly low around $67,360, limiting late short opportunities.

According to his plan, short positions may only be considered after specific liquidity events. These include reactions near the $68,955 level or after addressing an imbalance around $86,399. Entry confirmation would rely on lower timeframe signals such as M15 engulfing patterns or structure breaks.

His commentary reflects a tactical approach to current price action. Rather than chasing moves, traders are waiting for confirmation signals before entering positions. This aligns with the broader range-bound structure seen in recent sessions.

At present, Bitcoin continues to trade within a narrow band, with both bullish and bearish setups dependent on key levels.

While accumulation data provides context, short-term execution remains driven by technical confirmation. As a result, market participants are balancing long-term positioning with immediate price reactions.

Ripple’s native token (XRP) stayed under pressure on Friday as traders watched a key chart level and fresh signals from the Ripple ecosystem. 

CoinGecko data showed XRP at about $1.34 on Friday, with a 24-hour trading volume near $2.61 billion. The same data showed XRP down about 3% on the day and about 8% over the past seven days, with a market capitalization near $81.9 billion.

Crypto analyst EGRAG CRYPTO said XRP was at a “very sensitive level” and described the current area as a point where market direction could be decided. The analyst said a hold at this zone could support a move higher, while a break could send XRP toward deeper support around $1.15.

EGRAG also said the weekly structure matters more than short-term noise. In the post, the analyst pointed to $1.80 as a reclaim level and said a break and hold above $2.20 would be needed for stronger upside confirmation.

The analyst compared the current setup with earlier cycle behavior and said the signal had previously marked a zone near major bottoms rather than the exact low. “The cross marked a ZONE, not the exact bottom,” the post said.

Ripple adds AI tools to XRPL security process

Ripple said it is adding AI-assisted testing, a dedicated red team, and stricter review standards to strengthen XRP Ledger security before code reaches production. The company said the goal is to improve reliability as XRPL supports payments, tokenized assets, and institutional use cases.

Ripple said the new process will use AI across the XRPL development lifecycle to scan for vulnerabilities, review code changes, and model threat scenarios. The company said this work is part of the next phase of XRPL growth as network complexity increases.

Moreover, reports this week said Goldman Sachs disclosed more than $152 million in XRP ETF exposure through a recent SEC filing. That figure suggested that some institutional investors are still maintaining XRP-linked positions through structured products even as price action remains weak.

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bearish macro headlines dominate crypto market sentiment, as they have done for most of the month, but concrete updates advancing mainstream blockchain adoption still have the ability to resonate with investors.

That’s evident from the 7% gain in Canton Network’s CC token over the past 24 hours. It’s the second-best-performing top-100 token by market value, behind Ondo Network’s ONDO token, which has risen 9%.

CC’s upswing follows Visa’s announcement that it joined Canton Network as a super validator, helping secure and validate transactions on the blockchain.

The move is pivotal because it brings a global payments giant onto a privacy-preserving network specifically built for institutions that want to transact on the blockchain without exposing sensitive data to other network participants.

Visa will help “extend privacy‑preserving blockchain infrastructure to banks and financial institutions around the world,” the firm said in an official announcement.

Privacy is widely seen as a key requirement for broader institutional adoption of the technology. At Consensus Hong Kong in February, investment banking giant JPMorgan and crypto firms Abraxas and B2C2 emphasized the need for privacy-preserving infrastructure, noting that institutions are unlikely to transact at scale on fully transparent networks where sensitive financial data could be exposed.

ONDO, too, is rallying primarily due to its pole position in the real-world asset tokenization sector, underscored by the early-week news of its partnership with Franklin Templeton to tokenize traditional assets.

The broader market remains under pressure due to geopolitical tensions and oil prices, which have traders pricing a Fed rate hike in two weeks.

Bitcoin BTC$66,633.82 has dropped over 3% to $66,800 alognside similar losses in ether (ETH) and XRP (XRP). Solana’s SOL token fell over 5% and the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) lost 3% decline.

According to Marex, renewed outflows from spot ETFs are weighing on bitcoin.

“ETF outflows have returned in size, which removes a steady bid from the tape and makes dips feel less protected,” Marex’s analysts said in a morning note.

They added that with the quarterly options expiry out of the way, the market is more exposed to the real catalysts again: oil, war headlines, rates and risk appetite.

Speaking of risk appetite, it could remain weak as government bond yields across the advanced world, including the U.S. and Japan, are rising again. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

• Crypto
• Macro
  • March 27, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final for March est. 55.5 (Prev. 56.6)
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • March 27: Sphere 3D (ANY), post-market, -$4.68
  • March 27: Bonk Inc (BNKK), post-market
  • March 27: Mawson Infrastructure Group (MIGI), post-market, -$10.40
  • March 27: ZeroStack (ZSTK), post-market, -$1.97

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

• Governance votes & calls
• Unlocks
• Token Launches

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

Market Movements

• BTC is down 6.13% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $66,329.42 (24hrs: -4.44%)
• ETH is down 8.13% at $1,987.25 (24hrs: -4.27%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 3.34% at 1,909.22 (24hrs: -3.86%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is unchanged at 2.74%
• BTC funding rate is at -0.0097% (-10.5930% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is up 0.10% at 100.00
• Gold futures are unchanged at $4,460.60
• Silver futures are unchanged at $68.82
• Nikkei 225 closed down 0.43% at 53,373.07
• Hang Seng closed up 0.38% at 24,951.88
• FTSE is down 0.69% at 9,902.97
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.39% at 5,488.69
• DJIA closed on Thursday down 1.01% at 45,960.11
• S&P 500 closed down 1.74% at 6,477.16
• Nasdaq Composite closed down 2.38% at 21,408.08
• S&P/TSX Composite closed down 1.53% at 31,887.52
• S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.44% at 3,481.68
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 9 bps at 4.42%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.51% at 6,492.00
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.71% at 23,624.25
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.48% at 46,009.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 58.49% (-0.61%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02996 (0.07%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 994 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $31.97
• Total fees: 2.37 BTC / $164,687
• CME Futures Open Interest: 118,140 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 15.1 oz.
• BTC vs gold market cap: 4.44%

Technical Analysis

• The chart shows bitcoin’s daily price swings in candlestick format since July last year.
• BTC has slipped to support of the trendline from Feb. 6 low, characterizing the price bounce within the broader downtrend.
• Should the support give way, we could see a deeper selloff that could test dip demand around February lows near $60,000.
• The latest pattern is similar to the one seen through December and January, which ended up deepening the selloff.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Thursday at $173.38 (–4.26%), –1.72% at $170.39 in pre-market
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $19.61 (–8.06%), –1.33% at $19.35
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.58 (+3.62%), –0.58% at $8.53
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.01 (–7.62%), –0.18% at $13.98
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.79 (–7.39%), –0.51% at $15.71
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.30 (–6.63%), –0.54% at $9.25
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $6.85 (–6.04%)
• CoinShares Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $37.08 (–7.99%)
• Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $98.27 (–5.38%), –2.35% at $95.96
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $36.44 (–2.64%), –0.93% at $36.10

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $132.93 (–4.46%), –0.99% at $131.61
• Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $10.41 (–4.06%), –1.15% at $10.29
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.53 (–10.30%), –0.61% at $6.49
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.07 (–10.08%), +1.87% at $1.09
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.16 (–3.33%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$171.3 million
• Cumulative net flows: $56.14 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$92.5 million
• Cumulative net flows: $11.6 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~5.76 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping

Glassnode’s Accumulation Trend Score by cohort is signaling broad-based selling led by retail participants as bitcoin falls below $67,000.

The 30-day Accumulation Trend Score, broken down by wallet cohorts, measures the relative behavior of entities accumulating or distributing coins on-chain. It combines both the size of each cohort’s holdings and their net balance change over the past 30 days. A score closer to 1 indicates accumulation, particularly by larger entities, while a score near 0 reflects distribution or a lack of accumulation.

Currently, the heaviest selling pressure is coming from retail participants holding less than 10 BTC. Wallets with under 1 BTC have a score of 0.11, while those holding 1 to 10 BTC are even lower at 0.05, indicating aggressive distribution.

Further up the spectrum, selling pressure becomes less pronounced. Whales holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC are neutral with a score around 0.5, suggesting neither strong accumulation nor distribution, waiting to see where prices head next.
The largest cohort, those holding over 10,000 BTC, are showing mild distribution but not at levels seen late last year when Bitcoin traded above $90,000. Meanwhile, entities holding 100 to 1,000 BTC are also in notable distribution.

There has been limited accumulation since early February, when bitcoin briefly dropped toward $60,000. The current trend suggests retail investors are capitulating, while larger players remain on the sidelines, waiting rather than actively buying.

Key Highlights

• Shares closed down 11.37% at $688.80 Thursday, then climbed 1.50% to $699.10 after hours.
• Company disclosed plans for a 240,000-square-foot Greensboro, NC production site purchased from Qorvo, with operations expected by mid-2028.
• NVIDIA named as a confirmed customer through existing strategic supply agreements linked to the facility.
• Previous quarter showed Lumentum exceeding EPS forecasts ($1.67 actual vs. $1.41 projected) while revenue jumped 65.5% annually to $665.5M.
• Wall Street price targets vary significantly — BNP Paribas projects $1,040 while the average consensus hovers at $575.06; company insiders offloaded approximately $38.9M in shares recently.

Shares of Lumentum Holdings (LITE) experienced significant volatility Thursday, plummeting 11.37% before settling at $688.80. Trading volume reached approximately 6.18 million shares — representing a 4% increase over typical daily activity.

Lumentum Holdings Inc., LITE

However, the semiconductor stock staged a comeback during extended trading hours. Shares climbed 1.50% to $699.10 after the company disclosed details about a significant domestic manufacturing investment.

Lumentum revealed its purchase of a 240,000-square-foot production campus in Greensboro, North Carolina, from fellow semiconductor company Qorvo. The facility will focus on manufacturing indium phosphide optical components, including continuous wave lasers and ultra-high-power laser systems utilizing 6-inch InP wafers.

Operations are scheduled to reach full capacity around mid-2028. Chief Executive Michael Hurlston noted that clients are “constructing the technological backbone that will shape the future generation of computing.”

NVIDIA received confirmation as a client through existing strategic partnership agreements connected to this manufacturing expansion. Debora Shoquist, NVIDIA’s EVP of Operations, stated the development “reinforces supply chain reliability and enables us to address increasing infrastructure requirements with assurance.”

The after-hours recovery indicates investors interpreted Thursday’s selloff as an attractive entry point rather than evidence of underlying business deterioration.

Impressive Financial Performance and Upgraded Outlook

Lumentum’s latest quarterly earnings provided substantial reasons for investor confidence. The firm reported earnings per share of $1.67, surpassing Wall Street’s $1.41 consensus by $0.26.

Total revenue reached $665.5 million — representing a 65.5% increase compared to the same period last year and exceeding analyst expectations of $646.74 million. Management issued Q3 2026 EPS guidance ranging from $2.15 to $2.35.

Despite this positive momentum, shares have retreated from their 52-week peak of $808.80. The stock nevertheless trades 84% higher than its 52-week bottom of $45.66, with an extraordinary 941.90% gain over the trailing twelve months.

Current pricing remains substantially above key technical indicators — the 50-day moving average sits at $567.66 while the 200-day moving average rests at $363.11, both considerably beneath today’s levels.

Wall Street Remains Divided

Analyst perspectives vary considerably. BNP Paribas maintains a bullish $1,040 price objective, suggesting roughly 47% appreciation potential from present valuations.

Morgan Stanley kept its Equal-Weight stance while increasing its target from $520 to $595. Mizuho holds an “outperform” recommendation with a $645 price goal.

The aggregated view from 19 Wall Street analysts indicates a “Moderate Buy” rating with a mean price target of $575.06 — presently trading below the stock’s current market value.

Regarding insider activity, company executives have disposed of approximately 65,775 shares valued at roughly $38.9 million during the previous 90-day period. Institutional investors control about 94% of outstanding shares.

LITE’s relative strength index registered 52.34 entering Friday’s session, with the company’s total market capitalization standing near $49.18 billion.