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US House weighs sports-contract ban threatening Kalshi and Polymarket

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U.S. democrats urge crackdown on potential insider trading in prediction markets

The US House Agriculture Committee has scheduled a hearing on sports prediction markets as two gaming associations press Congress to prohibit sports contracts offered by platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket.

Summary

  • US lawmakers will examine sports prediction markets amid pressure to prohibit sports contracts.
  • Gaming associations argue Kalshi and Polymarket offer products resembling traditional sports betting.
  • Hyperliquid plans permissionless HIP-4 outcome markets using validator-approved onchain templates.

According to a committee release, the Subcommittee on Commodity Markets, Digital Assets, and Rural Development will examine customer protections and market integrity across prediction markets. Legal specialists and executives representing the American Gaming Association and Indian Gaming Association are expected to testify.

The hearing comes as state authorities challenge whether sports event contracts qualify as federally regulated derivatives or unlicensed gambling products. Kalshi and Polymarket have faced claims from regulators that their sports markets resemble conventional betting services, despite operating within the prediction-market sector.

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At the federal level, prediction-market supporters maintain that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission already possesses enough authority to oversee event contracts. Gaming associations, however, want lawmakers to prevent regulated exchanges from offering contracts based on sporting events.

Gaming groups want sports contracts prohibited

Legal expert Daniel Wallach, who reviewed the witnesses’ prepared testimony, noted that supporters of prediction markets are asking Congress not to pass new legislation clarifying the CFTC’s authority. According to Wallach, those witnesses believe the existing legal framework already allows the regulator to supervise platforms such as Polymarket.

Robert Schwartz, one of the witnesses supporting prediction markets, argued that the CFTC can decide which event contracts exchanges may list without receiving new powers from Congress.

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“It has powerful authority to disallow exchanges from listing problematic contracts,” Schwartz said.

Drawing on the Dodd-Frank Act, Wallach argued that the CFTC can prohibit an exchange from listing a contract involving gaming when the agency determines that the product conflicts with the public interest. His interpretation places responsibility for approving or rejecting sports contracts with the federal derivatives regulator rather than state gambling authorities.

Gaming representatives have challenged that position. David Bean, chairman of the Indian Gaming Association, argued that Kalshi is bypassing gambling laws by offering products that mirror traditional sports wagers. Bean’s testimony treats the economic function of the contracts, rather than their classification as derivatives, as the central issue.

According to Bean, the CFTC’s proposed rule would turn federally regulated derivatives exchanges into nationwide online gambling platforms. The American Gaming Association and Indian Gaming Association are therefore seeking a ban on sports contracts instead of relying solely on the CFTC to assess individual products.

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State-level enforcement has added urgency to the dispute. As previously reported by crypto.news, France’s gaming regulator blocked access to Polymarket after accusing the platform of providing illegal gambling services. The regulator also classified the alleged violation as a criminal offence carrying a financial penalty.

A US court ruling has created another obstacle for the sector. Judge Analisa Torres ruled that New York gambling laws apply to Kalshi’s sports-related event contracts. The decision challenged arguments that such products fall only within the CFTC’s federal jurisdiction and are therefore beyond state gambling controls.

Although the ruling directly concerned Kalshi, the report identified possible consequences for Polymarket and other platforms offering comparable event contracts. Under the court’s approach, federal commodities oversight would not automatically prevent states from applying their gambling laws to sports markets.

The House hearing will place those competing legal positions before lawmakers. Prediction-market supporters are expected to defend the CFTC’s existing power to reject harmful contracts, while gaming representatives will argue that sports products should not be permitted on federally regulated exchanges in the first place.

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Outcome markets are expanding beyond sports

While lawmakers consider restrictions on sports contracts, Hyperliquid is preparing to let users create outcome markets through its HIP-4 system. As reported by crypto.news, the decentralized exchange has announced that permissionless deployment will begin on testnet before a planned mainnet release.

In a Sunday Telegram announcement, Hyperliquid explained that validators cannot individually manage every possible tradeable event as the number of potential outcomes grows. Its proposed system would instead ask validators to approve standardized templates defining how each category of market must operate.

Once validators approve a template, Hyperliquid will store and enforce its rules onchain. Any deployer could then launch a market using that format without seeking a separate validator vote for each listing, according to the platform.

Deployers would remain responsible for defining and settling individual markets under the approved template’s conditions. Hyperliquid said validators would still create “canonical markets,” although it expects them to approve fewer than 10 such outcomes or questions each year.

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Hyperliquid’s proposal concerns the technical deployment of outcome markets and does not resolve the US legal dispute over sports contracts. The House hearing instead centers on whether existing CFTC powers provide adequate safeguards or whether Congress should prevent platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket from offering sports-linked products altogether.

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Relief Rally or Bull Trap? Why This Analyst Says XRP Is Heading Below $1

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A chart analyst is warning that XRP’s recent bounce may be giving traders false confidence and has argued that the token is still in a long-term downtrend despite recovering from its recent lows.

His view challenges a growing group of traders calling for a breakout, with the next few weeks likely to determine whether the world’s sixth-largest cryptocurrency can build a stronger base or slip below $1.

Weekly Chart Still Points to Resistance

In a series of posts on X, XRP watcher ChartNerd said that traders should continue respecting the asset’s long-term trend rather than assuming a small recovery has changed the market structure.

He pointed out that bears have been in control since a 20-week and 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) death cross formed in January 2026. Further, he argued that a relief in May that stalled at the 20-week EMA before XRP fell from about $1.35 to near $1.00 confirmed that the moving average is still acting as resistance.

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According to him, even if XRP rallies toward $1.29 or as high as $1.60, people should treat those levels as heavy resistance unless the price can move above them convincingly. The analyst added that in case the Ripple token hits $1.60 in late July or early August, it would strengthen the case that the recent move near $1.00 marked a local bottom.

However, if the asset doesn’t reach the 20-week EMA around $1.29 or gets rejected there, then “the drop below $1 could come sooner than expected.”

ChartNerd also pushed back against claims circulating on social media that XRP has already broken out of its downtrend dating back to July 2025. Responding to a bullish post from pseudonymous analyst Bird, who suggested that an explosive candle was due at any moment, he wrote that XRP was still inside its wedge pattern and below descending resistance.

He was equally dismissive of traders celebrating the asset’s latest move up and sarcastically questioned whether such a modest rise meant that XRP was now heading “vertical to $100 before EOY.” In another post, the market watcher argued that many of the accounts calling for a breakout today had made almost the same predictions when the token was trading around $2.40 in January, before the price eventually dropped to $1.00.

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Mixed Signals Continue for XRP

XRP was trading at around $1.13 at the time of writing, up nearly 4% in the last 24 hours. It has also gained almost 6% over the past week but is still about 2% lower than where it was a month ago.

According to data from CoinGecko, the coin’s latest trading range has been between $1.08 and $1.14, showing that the price has yet to break decisively in either direction.

ChartNerd believes the charts are telling a simple story, which is that until XRP breaks above resistance levels that have contained the market for months, any rally should be looked at with caution rather than treated as confirmation that the downtrend has ended.

Still, there are quite a few beating the bullish drum, including EGRAG CRYPTO, who recently claimed that the asset could eventually move toward a $1 trillion market cap if historical patterns repeat. However, such a move would need much stronger market conditions and far greater investor demand than exists currently.

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The post Relief Rally or Bull Trap? Why This Analyst Says XRP Is Heading Below $1 appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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1inch Co-Founder Anton Bukov Launches Second Tier After Exit He Calls a Firing

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1inch Co-Founder Anton Bukov Launches Second Tier After Exit He Calls a Firing


Anton Bukov, who co-founded decentralized exchange aggregator 1inch and, by his own account, led its protocol architecture and security, said the company fired him in late November and that he is now building a new infrastructure startup called Second Tier. 1inch disputes that he was fired. Bukov… Read the full story at The Defiant

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Shiba Inu tops $0.0000042 as exchange outflows and bullish derivatives boost sentiment

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Shiba Inu tops $0.0000042 as exchange outflows and bullish derivatives boost sentiment

Key takeaways

  • Shiba Inu (SHIB) trades above $0.0000042 after breaking above a key descending trendline.
  • Five consecutive days of exchange outflows suggest investors are moving SHIB into private wallets, reducing selling pressure.
  • Derivatives data remains bullish, with positive funding rates and a long-to-short ratio favoring buyers.

Shiba Inu (SHIB) extended its recovery on Tuesday, trading above $0.0000042 after breaking above a long-standing descending trendline. Improving on-chain activity and strengthening derivatives data suggest bullish momentum is building, potentially setting the stage for further upside.

Exchange outflows point to reduced selling pressure

On-chain data from CryptoQuant indicates investors have been steadily moving SHIB off centralized exchanges, a trend often viewed as a positive signal for prices.

The platform’s exchange netflow data recorded five consecutive days of net outflows beginning on July 17, showing that more SHIB tokens are leaving exchanges than being deposited.

This pattern typically suggests investors are transferring tokens into private wallets for longer-term holding rather than preparing to sell, reducing immediate selling pressure in the market.

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The continued decline in exchange balances could support SHIB’s ongoing recovery if buying demand remains steady.

Market positioning in the derivatives sector also points to improving confidence among traders.

According to CoinGlass, SHIB’s long-to-short ratio stood at 1.02 on Tuesday, indicating a slight preference for long positions over shorts and reflecting growing optimism that prices could continue moving higher.

Sentiment is further supported by funding rates. SHIB’s perpetual futures funding rate turned positive on July 17 and remained in bullish territory at 0.0103% on Tuesday. 

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Positive funding rates indicate that traders holding long positions are paying those with short positions, a sign that bullish bets currently outweigh bearish ones.

The combination of positive funding rates and a favorable long-to-short ratio suggests traders are increasingly positioning for additional gains.

Shiba Inu price outlook: Bulls target higher resistance

From a technical perspective, SHIB has improved its near-term outlook after breaking above a descending trendline that had capped price action since mid-May.

The breakout places the meme coin in a stronger position to extend its recovery if buying momentum continues.

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The next major resistance lies around $0.0000045. A decisive close above this level could pave the way for a move toward the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is also positioned near $0.0000045.

Momentum indicators have also turned more constructive. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed to 54 and is moving towards the 60 level, signaling that bearish momentum is fading. 

SHIB/USD 4H Chart

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has produced a bullish crossover, with expanding green histogram bars reinforcing the improving technical outlook.

However, if the current recovery loses momentum and sellers regain control, SHIB could retreat toward its yearly low near $0.0000040, where buyers may attempt to defend the broader uptrend.

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Tokenized Crypto Stocks Fell to 21% Share as Chip Names Climbed

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Tokenized Stock Market Cap Rising to $1.7 Billion, up 5X in a Year

Tokenized stocks are no longer mostly a crypto trade. The crypto sector once dominated, but they now hold a shrinking share as artificial intelligence (AI) and chip stocks grow fastest.

The shift shows tokenization maturing beyond its origins. The market has now broadened to include semiconductor and memory makers tied to the AI boom.

Tokenized Stocks Market Grew 5x in a Year

Tokenized stocks reached $1.7 billion in market value by the end of June. That figure stood at just $329 million a year earlier, according to a16zcrypto data. The category has grown roughly fivefold over the past 12 months.

“This makes tokenized stocks one of the fastest-growing categories of tokenized assets,” the firm said.

Most of that growth came from new issuance, not price gains. More than half of the market sits in assets that were not on-chain a year ago. Real demand, therefore, is driving the expansion.

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Tokenized Stock Market Cap Rising to $1.7 Billion, up 5X in a Year
Tokenized Stock Market Cap Rising to $1.7 Billion, up 5X in a Year. Source: a16zcrypto

The composition has also changed sharply. Crypto-linked products fell from 79% of market cap to 21%. Traditional equities absorbed the difference.

“They have lost the top spot to the “other” category — a long tail of hundreds of smaller listings — that now makes up 35% of the market, up from 15% a year earlier,” a16zcrypto noted.

Micron and SanDisk Top the Chip Tokens

The report highlighted that AI and chip stocks were the fastest-growing segment. They climbed from 0.3% of the tokenized stock market to 15.5% in one year.

AI and Chip Tokenized Stocks Rising Share.
AI and Chip Tokenized Stocks Rising Share. Source: a16zcrypto

Across major issuers, tokenized Micron’s (MU) combined market cap is about $120 million, and tokenized SanDisk’s (SNDK) is about $102 million. Both exceed the tokenized Nvidia (NVDA), with a combined market cap near $85 million, according to CoinGecko data.

The lineup leans toward memory and storage over compute. That pattern suggests traders want exposure across the AI hardware stack, not just the GPU makers.

The data marks a clear break from tokenization’s crypto-native roots. Whether traditional equities continue to gain share may hinge on continued issuance.

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The post Tokenized Crypto Stocks Fell to 21% Share as Chip Names Climbed appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Ripple-linked token up 4% as traders watch breakout toward $1.35

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Ripple-linked token up 4% as traders watch breakout toward $1.35

• Volume increased during the breakout attempt, with CoinGecko showing 24-hour trading volume of about $1.27 billion.

• XRP held above the $1.08-$1.10 area through the session, keeping the short-term recovery structure intact.

Technical Analysis

• The key short-term level is $1.13. A sustained break above it would confirm the triangle breakout watched by traders and bring $1.35 into focus.

• The hourly structure has tightened into a symmetrical triangle, with price compressing between lower highs and higher lows before the latest push higher.

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• The daily chart remains more cautious. XRP is still trading inside a descending channel, with the 100-day and 200-day moving averages above price and sloping lower.

• The $1.24-$1.28 area remains the bigger resistance zone because it lines up with the channel’s upper boundary and major moving averages.

• Support remains strongest around $1.02-$1.06, where buyers have repeatedly stepped in over recent weeks.

What traders should watch

• $1.13 is the immediate breakout level. Holding above it would strengthen the short-term bullish setup.

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• $1.14 is the next nearby level after marking the top of the latest 24-hour range.

• $1.24-$1.28 is the major resistance zone that XRP needs to clear before the daily chart turns meaningfully stronger.

• $1.02-$1.06 remains the key demand zone. Losing it would expose $0.88-$0.92.

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Base’s 1:1-backed tokenized equities launch ‘imminent,’ Pollak says

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Base’s 1:1-backed tokenized equities launch ‘imminent,’ Pollak says

Base’s 1:1-backed tokenized equities launch ‘imminent,’ Pollak says

The Coinbase-backed Ethereum layer-2 is preparing to expand its financial offerings as it pivots away from its earlier social-first strategy.

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Bernie Sanders vows to take on crypto ahead of 2026 elections

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Bernie Sanders vows to take on crypto ahead of 2026 elections

U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders has renewed his criticism of the crypto industry, placing digital asset groups alongside other well-funded political interests during a campaign event supporting Minnesota Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan’s Senate bid.

Summary

  • Bernie Sanders pledged to challenge crypto while campaigning for Minnesota Senate candidate Peggy Flanagan publicly.
  • Crypto-backed PACs have become major election spenders as lawmakers debate new digital asset regulation nationwide.
  • Fairshake and allied groups continue deploying industry funds across closely watched congressional races in 2026.

In a July 21 post on X, Sanders wrote, “Together, we are going to take on crypto, the AI industry, AIPAC and other billionaire super PACs.” He added that the campaign aimed to send Flanagan to the U.S. Senate. The comments focused on political spending and industry influence rather than cryptocurrency prices or blockchain technology.

Meanwhile, Sanders made the remarks while campaigning with Flanagan in Minneapolis. His statement grouped crypto with industries and political organizations that he says can use large financial resources to shape elections. He did not name a specific crypto company or political action committee in the post.

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The timing comes as crypto-backed political groups spend heavily ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. As previously reported, Public Citizen estimated that the crypto industry had contributed about $189 million during the current election cycle by late June. Ripple- and Coinbase-backed groups, including Fairshake, have remained among the largest sources of industry political funding.

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The spending has moved beyond national lobbying campaigns and into individual congressional races. Crypto.news reported in June that Fairshake-linked groups had deployed more than $8 million ahead of several closely watched primaries in Maryland, New York and Utah.

Fairshake and its affiliated groups have generally backed candidates viewed as supportive of clearer digital asset rules. Major industry companies, including Ripple, Coinbase and Andreessen Horowitz, have provided funding to the broader network over recent election cycles.

Crypto PACs become a larger force in the 2026 elections

The industry’s political spending has already appeared in several election results. In Maryland, as crypto.news reported, Adrian Boafo won a Democratic primary after receiving support from crypto-linked political groups. Fairshake affiliates also spent in other Democratic contests where digital asset policy formed part of the wider campaign debate.

The same network has also backed Republican candidates. In Alabama, a Fairshake-linked PAC spent more than $12 million supporting Barry Moore during his Senate primary and runoff campaign, according to related coverage. The activity shows that the groups have directed funding across party lines rather than limiting their spending to one political party.

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Sanders’ latest remarks place him on the other side of that spending campaign. His criticism centers on the role of large political donors and corporate interests in elections. The July 20 statement did not call for a crypto ban or identify a new legislative proposal targeting digital assets.

Instead, Sanders framed crypto as one of several well-funded interests that Flanagan and her supporters would oppose. That distinction matters because his post focused on political influence rather than announcing a new position on individual cryptocurrencies, exchanges or blockchain networks.

Sanders has maintained pressure on crypto policy

The statement follows other recent moves by Sanders involving digital asset policy. In June, he joined Senator Elizabeth Warren and Representative Bobby Scott in asking the U.S. Labor Department to withdraw a proposal that could expand access to crypto and other alternative assets inside 401(k) retirement plans.

Moreover, the lawmakers argued that retirement savers could face volatility and weaker investor protections if plan providers added digital assets without enough safeguards. The Labor Department’s proposal would not require employers to offer crypto, but it would allow plan managers to consider alternative investments under existing fiduciary duties.

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Sanders has also remained part of a wider group of lawmakers raising concerns about crypto regulation, investor protection and potential conflicts involving public officials. Those debates continue as Congress considers market structure rules and other legislation that could define how the U.S. treats digital asset companies.

At the same time, industry-backed political organizations have increased spending as those policy debates move through Congress. Previous crypto.news coverage found that Fairshake affiliates had spent about $7 million on selected Democratic primary races while lawmakers continued negotiating the CLARITY Act.

Minnesota race brings crypto politics onto the campaign stage

Sanders’ support for Flanagan now brings that national fight over political money into Minnesota’s Senate race. His July 20 message did not provide details about what “take on crypto” would mean in legislative terms, leaving the phrase tied mainly to the campaign’s broader criticism of wealthy industries and super PAC spending.

Crypto-funded groups have not remained on the sidelines in 2026. Their spending has already reached congressional primaries, Senate races and wider efforts to support candidates who favor industry-backed regulatory policies. Critics such as Sanders continue to frame that activity as part of a broader fight over large donors and political influence.

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The debate is likely to remain active as the U.S. moves closer to the midterm elections and Congress continues work on digital asset legislation. Fairshake and allied groups still have substantial resources available, while lawmakers who oppose parts of the crypto industry’s policy agenda are making campaign finance a larger part of their response.

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Coinbase's Jesse Pollak Hands Base App to Cobie, Says Social Bet Was 'Definitively Wrong'

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Coinbase's Jesse Pollak Hands Base App to Cobie, Says Social Bet Was 'Definitively Wrong'


Jesse Pollak, the Coinbase executive who created Base, handed the consumer Base app back to Coinbase and named crypto investor Jordan Fish, known as Cobie, to lead it, while admitting that his two-year bet on onchain social products and creator coins was a mistake. Pollak said in a post on X on… Read the full story at The Defiant

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Wanchain Cardano bridge exploit drains 515M NIGHT worth $9M

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Gnosis Pay exploit tied to Zodiac delay module as users exit

Wanchain’s Cardano-to-BNB Chain bridge has reportedly suffered an exploit that drained about 515 million NIGHT from its Cardano-side treasury, according to blockchain security firm BlockSec. 

Summary

  • BlockSec said roughly 515 million NIGHT left Wanchain’s Cardano bridge treasury during the reported exploit.
  • Midnight said its core network remained secure, describing the incident as isolated to bridge infrastructure.
  • NIGHT fell more than 30% as investigators examined possible signature reuse in Wanchain validator logic.

The incident triggered heavy selling of Midnight’s native token and sent NIGHT down more than 30% within 24 hours.

BlockSec’s Phalcon said its initial investigation pointed to a possible flaw in the TreasuryCheck validator used by the bridge. The security firm stressed that its findings remain preliminary. Meanwhile, the Midnight Foundation said the incident affected third-party bridge infrastructure rather than the Midnight blockchain itself.

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BlockSec points to possible signature reuse flaw

According to BlockSec, the reported Wanchain Cardano bridge exploit may stem from the way the TreasuryCheck validator creates messages for signing. The firm said the validator combines 14 fields of varying lengths without adding clear separators or recording the length of each field. That structure could allow different sets of data to produce the same final byte string.

BlockSec said this could create a path for a signature reuse attack. An attacker may be able to reorganize field values while keeping the same signed message, allowing a previously valid signature to authorize a different transaction. 

The firm said it reached its initial view after examining the onchain Plutus V2 code and the transaction linked to the reported attack. The investigation remains ongoing, and Wanchain had not published a full technical postmortem at the time of writing.

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The security firm said a more structured encoding method could have prevented this type of ambiguity. Its analysis noted that the contract already contained Cardano’s SerialiseData function, but the bridge did not appear to use it when building the signature hash. BlockSec said encoding each field with clear boundaries would prevent two different data sets from producing an identical signed message.

Wanchain originally launched cross-chain support for NIGHT between Cardano and BNB Chain in December 2025. The bridge allows users to move the token between the networks through cross-chain infrastructure operated by Wanchain. Cardano’s official ecosystem directory describes WanBridge as using threshold-signature relayers to connect Cardano with EVM and non-EVM networks.

Midnight says the core network remains secure

The Midnight Foundation initially said it was investigating reports of an incident involving the Wanchain Cardano-to-BNB bridge and bridged NIGHT. It later issued a clarification saying the event was limited to Wanchain’s third-party bridge infrastructure.

“The incident is isolated to the Wanchain Cardano–BNB bridge and does not involve the Midnight Network itself,” the foundation said. 

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It added that Midnight’s protocol, validators, consensus system and core infrastructure continued to operate normally. The organization said it was working with Wanchain as the bridge operator continued its investigation.

The distinction matters because the reported attack involved tokens held to support cross-chain transfers rather than a change to NIGHT’s total supply. NIGHT is Midnight’s native governance token and also generates DUST, the network resource used for transactions and smart contract execution. Midnight lists the token’s total supply at 24 billion.

Midnight operates as a privacy-focused Cardano partner chain with a dual-token economic model built around NIGHT and DUST. The project launched its mainnet in March 2026, while NIGHT remains publicly transferable and tradable.

NIGHT sinks as hundreds of millions of tokens move

NIGHT sold off sharply as reports of the bridge incident spread. CoinGecko data showed the token trading near $0.0186, down about 31% over 24 hours. At those prices, 515 million NIGHT would carry a market value of roughly $9 million to $10 million. The value can move quickly because of the token’s volatility.

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The large movement of NIGHT created immediate selling pressure because hundreds of millions of tokens reportedly left the bridge treasury within a short period. However, the Midnight Foundation has not said that the Midnight protocol itself created new tokens or suffered a consensus failure. Its statements have consistently described the event as a cross-chain bridge issue.

The price decline reversed part of NIGHT’s earlier market gains since Midnight’s launch. As crypto.news reported in March, NIGHT rose more than 20% around the mainnet rollout. The token has since faced a more volatile market, and the latest bridge incident has brought renewed attention to the risks created when native assets move through third-party infrastructure.

Bridge security remains a recurring problem across crypto

The reported Wanchain incident follows several bridge attacks in 2026. As previously reported, Taiko halted parts of its network after a verification problem affected its bridge system. Other recent incidents involved Verus Protocol, Axelar-linked routes and older Aztec infrastructure.

A separate crypto.news guide on cross-chain bridge security explains that bridges often hold large pools of assets while relying on complex systems to verify transactions between networks that cannot communicate directly. Weaknesses in message validation, signer systems and smart contract logic have repeatedly provided attack routes.

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The Wanchain case remains under investigation. BlockSec has presented a possible technical cause, while Midnight has limited its confirmed assessment to the bridge layer. Wanchain still needs to provide a full account of the transaction flow, the exact vulnerability, the status of bridged NIGHT

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Kioxia Crashed 45% in a Month: Why Are Analysts Still This Bullish?

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Kioxia is up almost 9% on the day, but it makes little impact when looking at the month-long slide.

Japan’s Kioxia Holdings Corporation (285A) stock crashed 45% in a month, but Wall Street analysts still expect it to climb another 118% from here.

That gap raises an obvious question. Why do so many analysts still back a stock that crashed this fast?

The Bull Case Analysts Are Sticking To

Kioxia shares fell to a low of ¥52,110 last Friday, but have managed a small comeback, up nearly 9%, to ¥55,860 on Tuesday, July 21. However, this still leaves the stock down 42% for the month, currently.

This is especially noteworthy given Kioxia hit a record high of ¥111,250 on June 22, making it briefly Japan’s largest company by market cap, overtaking Toyota.

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Despite this boom-and-bust, Kazuyoshi Saito, senior analyst at Iwai Cosmo Securities, still holds his target at ¥132,000.

“The fundamentals have not changed at all,” Saito said.

He argues the AI-driven demand story remains solid. He expects the shares to recover once technical selling fades.

Meanwhile, Nomura Securities raised its target from ¥115,000 to ¥126,000 last week. Huaxing Research lifted its target above ¥100,000 around the same time. The consensus target near ¥121,959 implies about 118% upside from Tuesday’s close.

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Why the Bulls Look Out of Step With the Chart

Kioxia’s chart doesn’t look like a stock about to rally 118%. The stock’s boom-to-bust reversal has wiped out most of this year’s gains.

Kioxia is up almost 9% on the day, but it makes little impact when looking at the month-long slide.
Kioxia is up almost 9% on the day, but it makes little impact when looking at the month-long slide. Image Source: Trading View

Some analysts say the memory stock rally has run too far, not just cooled off.

In contrast, Ikio Mitsuishi, portfolio manager at Aizu Securities, expects Kioxia to stay weak until at least late August. He said investors may avoid piling back into one stock so fast. Many could rotate into cheaper, less volatile names instead.

A Pattern That Goes Beyond Kioxia

Kioxia isn’t the only Asian chipmaker swinging this hard. SK Hynix’s Nasdaq-listed shares have surged more than 20% in a day, then dropped double digits days later.

The wider chip selloff across Japan has erased trillions of yen in market value this month.

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The real test for Kioxia bulls isn’t the target price. It’s whether Asia’s chip-stock volatility settles down before earnings season arrives.

The post Kioxia Crashed 45% in a Month: Why Are Analysts Still This Bullish? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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