Crypto World
Vitalik Buterin explains $500M SHIB donation, distances himself from AI safety lobbying
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has clarified the circumstances surrounding his massive 2021 crypto donation to the Future of Life Institute, while distancing himself from some of the group’s more recent policy approaches toward artificial intelligence.
Summary
- Vitalik Buterin clarified that his massive donation to the Future of Life Institute came from SHIB tokens sent to him during the 2021 memecoin boom.
- The institute reportedly converted roughly $500 million worth of SHIB despite Buterin expecting only a small portion could be sold.
- Buterin warned that centralized AI safety policies and large-scale lobbying efforts could create geopolitical tensions and unintended consequences.
Vitalik Buterin: AI safety risks losing trust if it becomes geopolitical power play
In a detailed post on X, Buterin explained that the funds originated from large quantities of dog-themed tokens, including Shiba Inu, which had been sent to his wallet by developers hoping to use his holdings as a marketing tactic.
According to Buterin, the tokens surged in value during the 2021 memecoin boom, with their peak “book value” exceeding $1 billion. Believing the rally was likely a bubble, he moved quickly to access the funds from cold storage, sold part of the holdings for Ether, and donated to several causes.
Buterin said he contributed roughly half of the remaining SHIB to India’s COVID-19 relief effort through CryptoRelief, while the other half went to the Future of Life Institute, an organization focused on existential risks such as artificial intelligence, nuclear threats and biotechnology.
He initially assumed the institute would only be able to liquidate between $10 million and $25 million worth of the tokens due to limited market liquidity. Instead, both CryptoRelief and the institute managed to convert around $500 million worth of SHIB.
However, Buterin said the organization later shifted its strategy toward cultural and political advocacy aimed at accelerating AI regulation in response to the perceived rapid arrival of artificial general intelligence.
While acknowledging their concerns, Buterin warned that large-scale coordinated political campaigns backed by substantial funding could produce unintended consequences and backlash.
“My worry is that large-scale coordinated political action with big money pools can easily lead to unintended outcomes,” he said.
Instead, Buterin said his preferred approach focuses on developing open-source technologies that improve resilience to high-risk scenarios, including stronger cybersecurity systems, secure hardware and pandemic detection tools.
He also cautioned that AI safety efforts could lose credibility globally if they become associated with attempts by specific companies or countries to dominate the technology.
Crypto World
Vitalik Buterin Withdraws Support From Future of Life Institute Following $500M SHIB Donation Controversy
Key Points
- Buterin withdraws support from FLI following shift toward AI policy lobbying
- 2021 SHIB donation unexpectedly surged beyond $1B during memecoin rally
- FLI and CryptoRelief successfully liquidated approximately $500M despite market constraints
- Buterin cautions that heavy-handed AI policy approaches could backfire
- Advocates for technological solutions including cybersecurity and biosurveillance systems
The co-creator of Ethereum has publicly clarified his stance on the Future of Life Institute following strategic changes that emerged after his substantial 2021 cryptocurrency donation. The gift consisted of massive quantities of Shiba Inu tokens that experienced dramatic value appreciation. Buterin currently maintains that the organization’s trajectory has diverged from the initial vision that informed his philanthropic decision.
Ethereum Founder Challenges Path of SHIB-Backed Organization
Buterin transferred substantial volumes of Shiba Inu tokens to the Future of Life Institute amid the 2021 memecoin frenzy. During that period, Buterin endorsed a comprehensive research framework addressing catastrophic global risks. This framework encompassed concerns about advanced artificial intelligence, biotechnology hazards, and nuclear threat awareness.
Buterin currently asserts that the institute progressively pivoted its focus toward legislative advocacy centered on artificial intelligence regulation. In Buterin’s assessment, this transformation represents a departure from the original science-based and educational blueprint outlined when the donation occurred. Buterin clarified that this strategic evolution has generated a disconnect between his initial intentions and the institute’s current operations.
Buterin additionally voiced apprehension regarding massively funded, coordinated advocacy initiatives. He cautioned that forceful policy interventions might produce counterproductive results and public resistance. Consequently, Buterin stressed that technology-driven resilience strategies could deliver more durable protection against existential dangers.
Shiba Inu Gift Exceeds Anticipated Value
The contribution stemmed from enormous quantities of canine-themed cryptocurrencies delivered to Buterin by token creators throughout the 2021 memecoin explosion. Numerous developers deposited tokens directly into Buterin’s publicly visible wallet as a marketing strategy. Consequently, Buterin found himself holding substantial reserves of Shiba Inu tokens.
Throughout the price surge, the aggregate valuation of these holdings climbed past $1 billion at market peak. Buterin acted swiftly to retrieve assets from secure storage and transformed portions of the holdings into Ethereum. Following this conversion, Buterin allocated the resources to charitable causes and scientific research entities.
Buterin anticipated constrained liquidity conditions within the Shiba Inu marketplace during that timeframe. He projected organizations would successfully convert merely ten to twenty-five million dollars. Contrary to these expectations, both the Future of Life Institute and India’s CryptoRelief successfully liquidated approximately $500 million worth of tokens.
Ethereum Creator Champions Tech-Centric AI Safety Approach
Buterin maintains acknowledgment of the institute’s objective to confront severe technological hazards. The organization advances policies designed to ensure artificial intelligence advancement serves collective human interests. Nevertheless, Buterin expresses disagreement with certain proposals restricting AI capabilities and biosynthesis equipment.
The institute has deployed protective measures preventing dangerous outputs from sophisticated models and research apparatus. Buterin contends that these restrictions prove insufficient because determined adversaries can circumvent them. Buterin maintains that depending exclusively on stringent output limitations cannot deliver enduring security.
Alternatively, Buterin champions accessible technological interventions that bolster defenses against existential threats. Such interventions encompass improved cybersecurity frameworks, trustworthy computing infrastructure, and sophisticated pandemic-surveillance mechanisms. Utilizing this methodology, Buterin contends societies can minimize catastrophic vulnerabilities without depending on intensive political mobilization.
Buterin further cautioned that artificial intelligence safety discourse risks losing legitimacy if perceived as connected to geopolitical rivalry. Per Buterin’s assessment, worldwide confidence remains crucial for productive coordination on breakthrough technologies. Accordingly, Buterin encouraged decision-makers and scientists to emphasize transparent and cooperative methodologies.
Crypto World
BTC price is building steam, a $3 billion trigger could set it off: Crypto Daybook Americas
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Bitcoin looks to be gathering bullish momentum, with volatility expected to increase as prices near a $3 billion trigger point.
The leading cryptocurrency by market value climbed through $72,100 during European hours, the widely tracked average price over the past 50 days. According to analysts, a firm move above this level would confirm bullish momentum, potentially drawing in more buyers.
Volatility is likely to pick up should prices near $75,000. That’s where options market makers, who provide order-book liquidity and ensure a seamless trading experience, are holding net “short gamma” positions worth $3 billion, according to Markus Thielen, the founder of 10x Research.
It means that as prices climb toward that level, these entities are likely to buy to rebalance their net exposure to neutral even as prices rise. This so-called dealer hedging could boost market volatility, potentially accelerating any rally. Note that market makers make money through the bid-ask spread, not price direction.
“The options market shows roughly $3 billion of negative gamma exposure at the $75,000 strike, meaning dealers are likely short gamma around this level. As Bitcoin moves higher toward this region, dealer hedging flows can begin to play a more important role in shaping price dynamics,” Thielen said in a note to clients.
That’s not, however, a set-in-concrete scenario. Alex Kuptsikevich, the chief market analyst at FxPro, worries that macro headwinds will arrest gains in bitcoin.
“External factors are acting as a headwind, including rising oil and dollar prices, as well as the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indices falling to their 200-day lows. We doubt Bitcoin will have the strength to withstand the wind for long, and internal resistance may soon become a significant obstacle to growth,” he said in an email.
Traditional markets are indeed sending risk-off signals. The strongest hint comes from the U.S. Treasury market, which underpins global finance. The MOVE index, which measures the 30-day expected price turbulence in Treasury notes, surged over 21% to 95 points Thursday, the biggest single-day rise since October 2024, according to data source TradingView.
Sharp spikes in Treasury volatility often tighten money worldwide, choking credit flows and sparking broad selling across markets. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to Watch
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
- Crypto
- Macro
- March 13, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. GDP growth rate QoQ second estimate for Q4 Est. 1.4% (Prev. 1.4%;)
- March 13, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. core PCE price index MoM for January Est. 0.4% (Prev. 0.4%)
- March 13, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. personal spending MoM for January Est. 0.3% (Prev. 0.4%)
- March 13, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. JOLTS job openings for January Est. 6.7M (Prev. 6.542M)
- March 13, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. Michigan consumer sentiment preliminary for March (Prev. 56.6)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- March 13: Bit Digital (BTBT), pre-market, -$0.01
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
- Governance votes & calls
- No major calls scheduled.
- Unlocks
- March 13: WhiteBit Coin (WBT) to unlock 27.77% of its circulating supply worth $4.59 billion.
- Token Launches
- March 13: Ether.fi KAT token rewards to be distributed.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
Market Movements
- BTC is up 2.95% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $72,457.14 (24hrs: +3.14%)
- ETH is up 2.92% at $2,128.69 (24hrs: +3%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 3.14% at 2,068.83 (24hrs: +3.01%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 1 bps at 2.79%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0015% (1.6688% annualized) on Binance

- DXY is up 0.42% at 100.16.
- Gold futures are down 0.44% at $5,093.40
- Silver futures are down 2.11% at $82.89
- Nikkei 225 closed down 1.16% at 53,819.61
- Hang Seng closed down 0.98% at 25,465.60
- FTSE 100 is down 0.43% at 10,260.60
- Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.71% at 5,708.34
- DJIA closed on Thursday down 1.56% at 46,677.85.
- S&P 500 closed down 1.52% at 6,672.62
- Nasdaq Composite closed down 1.78% at 22,311.98
- S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.84% at 32,840.60
- S&P 40 Latin America closed up 1.43% at 3,611.39.
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 6 bps at 4.27%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.30% at 6,697.75
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.29% at 24,631.50
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.34% at 46,881.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 59.44% (0.24%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.0294 (0.01%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 984 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $31.34
- Total fees: 2.69 BTC / $188,598
- CME Futures Open Interest: 110,290 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 14.2 oz.
- BTC vs gold market cap: 4.82%
Technical Analysis

- The chart shows bitcoin’s daily price swings in candlestick format since late 2025. It also plots the Fibonacci retracements of the January-February selloff and the 50-day simple moving average of bitcoin’s price.
- BTC’s price is looking to top the 50-day SMA line. That would shift the focus to next resistance level at $74,564, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the selloff.
- On the other hand, a failure to penetrate the 50-day SMA could embolden sellers, potentially leading to a drop below $70,000.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Thursday at $193.23 (–2.72%), +1.96% at $197.02 in pre-market
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $114.18 (+1.21%), +0.58% at $114.84
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $20.63 (–3.87%), +1.89% at $21.02
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.76 (+2.46%), +1.60% at $8.90
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.50 (–2.09%), +1.59% at $14.73
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.24 (–1.81%)
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.55 (–2.65%), +1.57% at $9.70
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $9.96 (–8.71%), unchanged in pre-market
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $37.96 (–2.47%)
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $36.24 (–2.55%), +0.44% at $36.40
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $137.34 (–0.72%), +2.49% at $140.76
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $8.83 (–4.33%), +1.59% at $8.97
- SharpLink (SBET): closed at $7.48 (–1.45%), +2.54% at $7.67
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.93 (–9.71%), +4.61% at $0.97
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.15 (–1.71%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: $53.8 million
- Cumulative net flows: $55.93 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1.29 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: $72.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.75 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~ 5.71 million
Source: Farside Investors
While You Were Sleeping
Crypto World
BlackRock Staked Ethereum ETF Sees $15.5M First-Day Volume
The new staked Ethereum ETF (ETHB) from BlackRock recorded about $15.5M in trading volume on its first day.
Yesterday, BlackRock launched its iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF, trading under the ticker ETHB.
According to Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart, it recorded a trading volume of about $15.5 million on its first day.
A New Structure for Crypto Income
In a series of posts on X, Seyffart explained that the fund opened with just over $100 million in assets and had raked in more than $11 million in trading volume by 2 p.m. Eastern time. However, by day’s end, it had added another $4 million to close at $15.5 million. The analyst described the performance as “very, very solid for a day 1 ETF launch.”
He also looked at the numbers next to BlackRock’s existing spot Ethereum ETF, ETHA. During the same period, ETHA had about $264 million in trading volume, well above ETHB’s numbers. But the gap is largely a reflection of the difference in assets, with ETHA holding nearly $6.6 billion per SoSoValue and the staked Ethereum ETF launching at $100 million.
According to the analyst, ETHB carries a management fee of 0.25%, although in the first year, BlackRock is offering a reduced fee of 0.12% until the fund hits $2.5 billion in assets.
Documents released at the same time as yesterday’s launch show that Coinbase will be the custodian and staking provider. The ETF’s ETH will be delegated to a small number of approved validators, such as Figment, Galaxy Blockchain Infrastructure, and Attestant. Bitwise bought Attestant and is now rebranding it as Bitwise Onchain Solutions.
Rather than add staking rewards to the fund’s net asset value, BlackRock will pay them out as dividends, and according to Seyffart, the distribution will probably be paid out every month. Still, he urged investors to read the prospectus for the final details.
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Some Analysts Think This Could Move ETH’s Price
Following ETHB’s announcement, analyst Ash Crypto said on X that the product was more important than it might appear. According to them, the 3% yield gives Ethereum a new reason for institutional capital allocation. They also pointed to how it could affect the basic supply and demand dynamic, which could help push up ETH’s price.
“Every dollar flowing into $ETHB removes ETH from circulation and locks it into staking,” the market watcher posted. “Less supply. Same or growing demand. Price goes up by basic math.”
The new product is part of a bigger change in how institutions are using Ethereum. Per data shared by the network earlier in the year, more than 35 financial and tech companies, including BlackRock, JPMorgan, and Fidelity, have released products that are built directly on the blockchain. These offerings include tokenized funds, on-chain deposits, and stablecoin services.
At the time of writing, ETH was trading around $2,100, which was about 3% more than it was 24 hours ago and about 6% higher than a month ago. The asset has also gone up almost 12% in the last year but is still well below its all-time high of nearly $4,950, which it hit in August 2025.
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Crypto World
Token2049 Postpones Dubai Event to 2027 Amid Regional Uncertainty
The Dubai edition of Token2049, one of the crypto industry’s largest gatherings, has been postponed to 2027 amid ongoing regional uncertainties that complicate international travel and large-scale event planning. The conference, originally slated for April 29-30 in Dubai, will now take place on April 21-22, 2027. Organizers said tickets will remain valid for the new dates, and holders can also transfer attendance to Token2049’s Singapore edition. Preparations for the 2026 event had been advancing, but organizers concluded a postponement would preserve the event’s scale and quality and help the industry convene safely. A spokesperson told Fortune that registrations were tracking toward a sold-out turnout prior to the postponement. Token2049.
Key takeaways
- Token2049 Dubai is rescheduled to April 21-22, 2027, with existing tickets honored for the new dates and transferable to the Singapore edition.
- The Dubai plan historically progressed toward a sold-out event, according to a Fortune citation referencing a Token2049 spokesperson.
- Regional travel disruptions in the UAE, linked to broader tensions in the Middle East, prompted organizers to re-evaluate logistics and attendee safety considerations.
- Despite the postponement, preparations for the 2026 edition were described as ongoing before the decision was made to push the conference back.
- The shift illustrates how geopolitical and logistical headwinds continue to shape the calendar for major crypto conferences and investor gatherings.
Market context: The postponement underscores how macro and regional travel headwinds influence crypto event planning, potentially affecting attendee inflows, sponsor interest, and information exchange in the months ahead. In a market where in-person gatherings are still integral to deal-making and networking, such delays can impact momentum for project launches and fundraising activities as liquidity and risk sentiment evolve.
Why it matters
For attendees, the decision means adjusting travel itineraries and accommodation plans, but it also preserves the opportunity to hear from industry leaders at a time when crypto markets are navigating regulatory scrutiny and evolving macro conditions. The transfer option to Singapore offers a practical path for participants who had earmarked Dubai as a focal point for 2026 activity, ensuring continuity of networking opportunities, product demos, and investor briefings that typically accompany Token2049’s marquee events.
From the organizers’ perspective, the postponement is a calculated step to safeguard the event’s quality and integrity. By extending the timeline, Token2049 can align speaker lineups, vendor showcases, and security protocols with the scale expected of a flagship crypto conference while mitigating risk from travel disruptions and safety concerns. The decision also signals a broader trend in the industry toward deliberate pacing of major gatherings as travel and visa processes remain uneven across regions.
For the broader market, the move highlights how event calendars can mirror the fragility and resilience of the crypto ecosystem. Conference attendance often serves as a barometer for sentiment, sponsorship commitments, and potential fundraising activity for early-stage projects. When a leading venue delays, it can compress timelines for announcements and partnerships around related events elsewhere, influencing momentum and information flow within the community.
What to watch next
- Official confirmation of the new Dubai dates and the ticket-transfer process, with any deadlines for transferring to the Singapore edition.
- Updates on the Singapore edition’s schedule, venue, and registration status to gauge how many Dubai attendees opt to move their plans.
- Developments in 2026 event preparations and whether organizers reaffirm or adjust expectations for that edition.
- Continuing travel advisories or regional regulatory developments that could affect attendance and logistics at Token2049-related events.
Sources & verification
- Token2049 Dubai announcement detailing the new dates and ticket policy.
- Fortune report citing a Token2049 spokesperson about early Dubai preparations and indications of a sold-out trajectory.
- Gulf News coverage noting disrupted UAE travel schedules and airline adjustments impacting regional mobility.
Dubai edition reimagined: Token2049 postpones to 2027 and expands ticket-transfer options
The decision to push Token2049 Dubai into 2027 represents a measured response to a confluence of logistical hurdles and geopolitical risk that has influenced travel into the United Arab Emirates. In the official notice, organizers emphasized that the 2027 dates—April 21-22—will host a gathering designed to maintain the event’s global reach, speaker depth, and sponsor reach. They stressed that the postponement is intended to preserve the “scale and quality” attendees expect from Token2049’s most prominent regional installment, while ensuring participants can convene in a safer, more predictable environment.
Importantly for ticket holders, the policy remains flexible: existing passes will remain valid for the Dubai edition in 2027, and the option to transfer attendance to Token2049’s Singapore event is available. This approach acknowledges the logistical realities that often accompany large-scale tech and crypto conferences—from visa timelines to flight availability—while keeping the opportunity to engage with industry leaders and peers intact. The Singapore leg, long considered a complementary hub for Token2049’s broader Asia-Pacific footprint, stands to benefit from a potential concentration of regional participants who might otherwise have attended Dubai in a typical year.
The timeline shift follows a period during which organizers had signaled progress toward a sold-out Dubai event, a trend referenced by Fortune in reporting on a Token2049 spokesperson’s comments. While the public communication emphasized momentum behind the Dubai edition, the same week also brought cautionary notes about the broader travel environment and regional tensions that could complicate international gatherings. By opting to defer rather than compress the schedule, Token2049 aims to balance the appetite for in-person engagement with the practicalities of air travel, venue logistics, and on-the-ground safety concerns.
Beyond the conference mechanics, the news intersects with real-world travel conditions in the Gulf region. UAE airspace restrictions and evolving flight schedules have created a context in which even well-planned events can be exposed to disruptions. As reported by Gulf News, carriers such as Emirates, Etihad, flydubai, and Air Arabia have operated limited or adjusted schedules, with travelers advised to confirm bookings before making arrangements. The ripple effects extend to international attendees who must align visa processes, hotel bookings, and onward travel to and from Dubai, Singapore, and any connected hubs. In this environment, postponements are a practical step to safeguard attendee experience, sponsor engagement, and the overall integrity of such a high-profile industry gathering.
While Token2049’s Dubai postponement marks a notable shift, it also underscores the industry’s broader resilience. Crypto conferences have become more deliberate in their planning, integrating contingency options for attendees and sponsors who navigate evolving regulatory and logistical landscapes. The Singapore edition’s potential to absorb some attendance and sponsorship momentum mirrors a strategic diversification that could help sustain the event cycle even as geopolitical tensions and travel headwinds persist. In sum, the move is less about retreat and more about recalibration—preserving a premier platform for project updates, fundraising discourse, and community exchange at a moment when information exchange remains as critical as ever for market participants.
Crypto World
TOKEN2049 Postpones Dubai Event to 2027 Amid Regional Uncertainty
Update March 13, 10:56 am UTC: This article has been updated to add more information about the regional situation and additional details from the announcement.
The Dubai edition of Token2049, one of the crypto industry’s largest global gatherings, has been postponed until 2027 due to regional uncertainty affecting international travel and event logistics.
The organizers said on Friday that the conference, originally scheduled for April 29-30, in Dubai, will instead take place on April 21-22, 2027.
In the announcement, the organizers said preparations for the 2026 event had been progressing, but concluded that postponing the conference would help maintain the scale and quality expected from the gathering and ensure the industry could meet safely.
The move marks a reversal from earlier this week, when a Token2049 spokesperson told Fortune that preparations for the Dubai conference were continuing and that registrations were tracking toward a sold-out event.

Organizers said Dubai remains a key hub for the digital asset industry and thanked the city’s regulators and government partners for their support, adding that they look forward to returning with a “stronger TOKEN2049 Dubai” in April 2027.
Related: Oil retreats from 25% surge as G7 weighs emergency reserve release
The United Arab Emirates is home to more than 1,800 crypto companies employing over 8,600 people, including more than 600 Web3 firms located in Dubai’s DMCC free zone. According to Token2049, over 15,000 attendees have participated in the event.
Regional tensions disrupt travel across the Middle East
Travel across the UAE has remained disrupted by regional airspace restrictions following the outbreak of the US-Israel war on Iran on Feb. 28.
Gulf News reported Friday that Emirates, Etihad, flydubai and Air Arabia were operating limited or adjusted schedules, with passengers urged to travel only if they had confirmed bookings.
Tensions further escalated after Iranian drone and missile attacks targeted the UAE and neighboring countries since the outbreak of the conflict, according to an Associated Press report.
Debris from intercepted missiles has caused fires and damage in Dubai, including infrastructure around Dubai International Airport.
Despite the attacks, the Central Bank of the UAE assured residents that financial institutions and insurers continue to operate with full efficiency and stability.
Magazine: China’s ‘50x’ blockchain boost, Alibaba-linked AI mines Bitcoin: Asia Express
Crypto World
XRP Bolinger Bands Compress as Bulls Aim for $2.55
XRP’s (XRP) price was up 3% on Friday to trade above $1.40 as several technical and onchain indicators suggested it was due for a “significant” upward breakout.
Key takeaways:
-
XRP’s Bollinger Bands indicator now sees the potential for a massive price breakout.
-
XRP’s falling wedge pattern targets $2.55.
-
Declining exchange balances and persistent outflows indicate XRP accumulation.
XRP Bollinger Bands point at “significant” breakout
Bollinger Bands, a technical indicator used by traders to assess price momentum and volatility within a certain range, have reached their tightest point in eight months, signalling that volatility should be expected soon.
Related: Ripple to buy back $750M in shares through April: Report
The “daily XRP Bollinger Bands have slipped to their tightest level since July 2025,” analyst The Crypto Basic said in an X post on Thursday.
The XRP/USD pair surged about 60% in July 2025 to its multi-year high at $3.66, after breaking above the upper boundary of the Bollinger Bands.
“Tight Bollinger Bands often indicate lower volatility, and the breakout that follows could lead to an explosive run,” The Crypto Basic added.

Another analyst called this a preparation for a “significant breakout.”
XRP’s price continues to “consolidate within a symmetrical triangle structure with tightening Bollinger Bands and a stabilizing RSI,” fellow analyst XRP Update said, adding:
“This volatility compression suggests the market may be preparing for a significant breakout.”
XRP analyst Arthur said, with the Bollinger Bands tightening, a daily candlestick close above $1.50 “would confirm momentum.”

XRP falling wedge pattern targets $2.55
XRP price action is forming a falling wedge pattern on the weekly chart, a structure typically associated with bullish reversals after a prolonged downtrend.
The price has been compressing between two descending trendlines since July 2025, with the lower boundary now acting as key support near the $1.30 psychological level.

Meanwhile, the relative strength index (RSI), on the weekly chart, is rebounding from oversold territory, indicating fading selling momentum.
Historically, similar RSI conditions have preceded strong rebounds in XRP. For example, XRP rallied as much as 85% between July and September 2022 following the RSI’s recovery from oversold conditions.
A confirmed breakout above the wedge’s upper trendline could open the way for a run toward the bullish target of the prevailing chart pattern at $2.55, 78.5% above the current price.
As Cointelegraph reported, bulls must break and sustain the XRP price above $1.73-$2 supplier to signal a long-term trend shift.
Declining supply on exchanges backs XRP’s upside
XRP supply on exchanges, or the total amount of coins held on exchange addresses, continues to fall, reflecting accumulation and long-term investor confidence.
The XRP balance on exchanges dropped to 12.8 billion on Friday, levels last seen in May 2021.

A reducing balance means fewer XRP tokens are available for sale, reducing sell-side pressure.
Such outflows typically indicate strong accumulation by large holders, who move funds to cold storage, reducing immediate sell-side pressure and increasing the chances of XRP’s short-term rebound.
However, XRP’s recovery could be delayed by continued redemption from spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have recorded outflows for five consecutive days, totalling $50.8 million.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Crypto World
JPMorgan Flags Sharp Divergence Between Bitcoin and Gold ETF Flows Since Iran War
The correlation between Bitcoin (BTC) and gold has snapped under the pressure of the Iran conflict, according to a note to investors by JPMorgan.
While geopolitical instability usually drives a unified bid for safe havens, the two assets are currently moving in opposite directions.
This decoupling reveals a significant shift in how capital is treating “digital gold” versus the real thing.
Instead of moving in tandem as crisis hedges, investors are aggressively rotating capital, creating a clear winner in the ETF market since late February.
Discover: The best crypto to buy now
What the JPMorgan ETF Flow Data Actually Shows About Bitcoin
Since the conflict escalated on Feb. 27, JPMorgan analysts report a stark divergence in capital flows. The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), has bled outflows totaling roughly 2.7% of its assets under management.
In contrast, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) absorbed inflows equaling roughly 1.5% of its assets during the same window.
JPMorgan analysts, led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, highlighted in their recent note to investors that this reverses the trend seen earlier in the year when gold funds held the advantage.
The data is unambiguous. While gold has traditionally been the default safety trade during Middle East tensions, capital is currently voting for Bitcoin exposure.
Institutional positioning generally reflects a shift away from bullion in favor of the spot Bitcoin ETFs, despite the higher volatility inherent in crypto assets.
Interestingly, IBIT inflows since the start of 2024 are now roughly double the total accumulation seen by GLD, further cementing the shift in dominance among exchange-traded products.
Is Bitcoin Replacing Gold as the Crisis Hedge?
The divergence goes deeper than headline flows. JPMorgan notes that while spot Bitcoin ETFs are seeing inflows, institutional derivatives markets paint a more cautious picture. Hedge funds appear to be reducing direct Bitcoin exposure even as ETF buyers step up.
Short interest in IBIT has actually increased since the conflict began, while GLD short interest declined. This narrows the gap between the two, suggesting that hedge funds are hedging their crypto bets while favoring gold for pure defensive positioning.
This creates a complex market structure. Retail and registered investment advisors (RIAs) are likely driving the ETF bid, treating Bitcoin as a risk-off asset alongside the dollar. Meanwhile, sophisticated desks are hedging downside risk as oil surges past $100, a macro factor that typically pressures risk assets.
Options activity supports this cautious institutional stance. The demand for downside protection in Bitcoin has risen, contrasting with the relentless buying pressure in the spot ETF market. However, the sheer magnitude of the rotation, selling gold to buy Bitcoin, suggests the “digital gold” narrative is holding up under fire better than skeptics anticipated.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Can BTC Hold the $70,000 Level?
Price action remains resilient despite the mixed signals from derivatives markets. Even with war-driven inflation fears dominating the headlines, Bitcoin is trading above $70,000, showing strength where legacy assets have faltered.

Bull Scenario: If ETF inflows persist at this 1.5% pace, Bitcoin targets the $80,000 resistance band. Clearing that level opens the path to retest all-time highs. JPMorgan’s own valuation models have previously flagged Bitcoin as undervalued relative to gold regarding volatility-adjusted capital, suggesting room for an upside squeeze.
Bear Scenario: Should macro liquidity tighten further, support sits firm at $64,000. A break below this level would validate the rising short interest and likely force a flush of the recent leverage. Traders must watch the $70,000 midpoint closely; losing it would signal that the safe-haven bid has exhausted itself.
The next major catalyst isn’t just on the chart; it’s at the Federal Reserve. If oil prices stay high, inflationary pressure could force central banks to keep rates elevated longer, testing the resilience of both gold and Bitcoin.
Discover: The next crypto to explode
The post JPMorgan Flags Sharp Divergence Between Bitcoin and Gold ETF Flows Since Iran War appeared first on Cryptonews.
Crypto World
Hong Kong to Approve First Stablecoin Licenses for Banks
HSBC Holdings and a joint venture led by Standard Chartered are reportedly set to become the first authorized stablecoin issuers in Hong Kong.
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) is expected to issue stablecoin licenses to HSBC and Standard Chartered, the South China Morning Post reported Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter. HSBC and Standard Chartered are set to be in the first batch as authorities reportedly prioritize institutions already authorized to issue banknotes in the city.
The Hong Kong government, through the HKMA, authorizes banknote issuance to three commercial banks, including local branches of HSBC, Standard Chartered and the Bank of China.
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has not confirmed the names of any successful applicants. Standard Chartered declined to comment, and HSBC did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The approvals would mark a major step toward Hong Kong’s ambition to become a global digital asset hub despite neighboring mainland China reportedly making it harder to launch stablecoins in the region.
HKMA targets the first stablecoin licenses in March
According to the SCMP, the number of licenses and timetable had yet to be finalized and remained subject to change, but the sources indicated a possible date on March 24.
Though unconfirmed, potential stablecoin issuer licenses for HSBC and Standard Chartered would align with earlier reports that the HKMA planned to grant the first licenses in March 2026.

HKMA Chief Executive Eddie Yue said in February that the regulator expects the first batch of stablecoin issuer licenses to include a “very small number” of issuers.
The Hong Kong government enforced the Stablecoin Ordinance, a statutory framework for regulating stablecoins, in August 2025, making it illegal to offer or promote unlicensed fiat-referenced stablecoins to retail investors.
Related: China’s Alibaba joins stablecoin platform MetaComp’s $35M fundraise
In September, the HKMA said it received applications from 36 institutions for a license to issue stablecoins. HSBC and Standard Chartered were among the institutions that were reported to be planning to apply, alongside the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China.
Magazine: China’s ‘50x’ blockchain boost, Alibaba-linked AI mines Bitcoin: Asia Express
Crypto World
Pi Network coin price jumps +30% after Kraken listing ahead of Pi Day
The price of Pi Network surged more than 30% on March 13 after a fresh exchange listing and growing anticipation around the project’s upcoming Pi Day event.
Summary
- Pi Network’s token surged more than 30% after being listed on Kraken.
- A mainnet protocol upgrade and Pi Day hype are adding to bullish sentiment.
- Technically, $0.30 is the next resistance, while $0.25 acts as key support.
According to data, the token climbed roughly 31% in a single day, driven primarily by the listing of PI on Kraken, one of the largest global crypto exchanges.
The listing significantly expanded trading access to the asset and sparked renewed interest among traders.
In addition to the exchange listing, the Pi Network ecosystem is currently undergoing a mainnet protocol upgrade tied to Step 3 node migration, which could further strengthen network infrastructure as the project progresses through its development roadmap.
Market enthusiasm is also building ahead of Pi Day, an annual event celebrated by the Pi community that often coincides with ecosystem announcements and product updates.
The combination of a major exchange listing, technical upgrades and community momentum has helped fuel the token’s latest rally.
Pi Network coin price analysis
The attached price chart shows PI breaking out of a multi-week consolidation phase. The token recently traded around $0.29, climbing sharply from roughly $0.21 earlier this month, reflecting a strong bullish move.

Momentum indicators also point to increasing buying pressure. The relative strength index (RSI) sits near 70, indicating strong upward momentum but also approaching overbought territory.
This suggests the rally could continue in the short term, though some traders may watch for potential profit-taking.
From a technical perspective, $0.30 represents the next key resistance level, a psychological barrier that could determine whether the rally extends further. On the downside, support appears near the $0.25 region, which previously acted as a breakout zone during the latest price surge.
If buying pressure continues into Pi Day, analysts say the token could see additional volatility as traders react to potential announcements from the Pi Network team.
Crypto World
Bitcoin tops $72,000 as crypto rallies despite stronger dollar: Crypto Markets Today
Bitcoin rose through $72,000 during European hours on Friday, rising by 2% since midnight UTC and outpacing gains in U.S. equity indexes.
Futures on the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 index dropped during Asian trading hours before recovering. Both are now in the green. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), meanwhile, broke above 100, a move that typically puts pressure on risk assets like cryptocurrencies and stocks.
Today, however, the crypto market seems relatively immune to that pressure, with notable gains across the board. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) is 1.1% higher since midnight.
If bitcoin can break above $74,000, a level it has failed to penetrate recently, on convincing volume, it might trigger a breakout back to the $80,000 region. Otherwise, it is likely to revert to a trading range that dates back to Feb. 5.
The war in Iran continued to rage Friday morning, with fresh strikes being detected in Tehran and Dubai, keeping oil around $100 per barrel.
Derivatives positioning
- Cumulative industry-wide futures open interest (OI) increased 5% to $107.6 billion over the past 24 hours, signaling continued capital inflows as bitcoin and other tokens remain rock steady amid turmoil in global equity markets.
- Bitcoin’s (OI) rose to 687,200 BTC, the most since Feb. 25. Ether’s (ETH) grew to 13.72 million, the highest since Jan. 30. Annualized perpetual funding rates and cumulative volume deltas for both remain positive, a combination indicating investor bias toward bullish plays.
- In XRP, OI surged nearly 10% to $1.86 billion, the most since Feb. 6. Coupled with positive funding rates, this suggests renewed investor capital deployment for bullish bets. Open interest in SOL, ADA and SUI futures also saw notable increases.
- Bitcoin’s annualized 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) dropped to a two-week low of 55%, supporting the case for continued spot price rallies. Ether’s volatility is falling as well. This stability contrasts with heightened volatility in the U.S. Treasury market.
- On Deribit, bitcoin puts remain pricier than calls, a sign of lingering demand for downside protection. For ETH, the put premium at the long end has nearly evaporated, hinting at a bullish reset.
- Block flows featured demand for bitcoin put spreads and ether call spreads.
Token talk
- The altcoin market also showed strength on Friday. U.S.- president-themed memecoin TRUMP surged by more than 30% in 24 hours after the announcement of a “gala luncheon” with Donald Trump for the top 297 token holders.
- Artificial intelligence (AI) tokens bittensor (TAO) and artificial super intelligence alliance (FET) both climbed by 14% as investors continue to speculate on a wider market breakout.
- CoinMarketCap’s “Altcoin Season” index is now at 40/100, its highest point since Jan. 9.
- CoinDesk’s Computing Select Index (CPUS) is the leading benchmark over the past 24 hours, having increased by 6.5%. It is followed by the CoinDesk Memecoin Index (CDMEME) and the DeFi Select Index (DFX), which are up by 4% and 3.7%, respectively.
- One laggard over the past 24 hours has been canton (CC). The token of the institutional-focused layer-1 network is down by 4%, taking its loss over the past month to 11%.
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