TLDR

• Meta stock dropped 1.7% following the introduction of the Senate’s SCAM Act, which targets scam ads on social media platforms.
• The SCAM Act proposes stricter regulations, requiring Meta to verify advertisers and giving enforcement power to the FTC and state attorneys general.
• Meta is facing increased scrutiny from both U.S. regulators and international challenges, particularly from India’s Supreme Court regarding WhatsApp data.
• Despite embracing artificial intelligence, Meta’s reliance on ad revenue remains crucial, and stricter regulations could hinder its growth.
• The tech sector as a whole is grappling with fears that AI tools may erode profit margins, impacting major players like Meta.

Meta Platforms’ stock dropped 1.7% to $679.86 on Wednesday morning, marking another volatile session for the parent company of Facebook and Instagram. The decline followed news of a proposed bipartisan Senate bill, aiming to curb scam ads online. The bill, called the Safeguarding Consumers from Advertising Misconduct Act (SCAM Act), has raised concerns among investors, adding to the growing uncertainty surrounding Meta’s future.

Meta Platforms, Inc., META

New Senate Bill Raises Concerns for Meta’s Ad Business

The SCAM Act targets deceptive advertising practices and would impose stricter regulations on social media platforms. If passed, the bill would force platforms like Meta to verify advertisers, which could lead to increased screening costs and potential delays in onboarding new advertisers. The bill also grants enforcement powers to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and state attorneys general, placing further pressure on the advertising ecosystem.

Investors are closely monitoring the situation, with many worried about the impact on Meta’s core revenue stream advertising. While the company has embraced artificial intelligence in its efforts to diversify its business model, ad sales still play a crucial role in its financial performance. The bill’s focus on tightening the regulatory framework for online ads has raised concerns that it could slow Meta’s ad revenue growth.

Meta Stock Faces Broader Market Pressures

Meta’s stock is also facing broader market pressures, which have affected the technology sector as a whole. The rise of artificial intelligence has led to fears of increased competition and shrinking profit margins for established tech companies. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both experienced significant declines this week, partly driven by concerns about AI’s impact on the industry.

Meta is grappling with these challenges at a time when the company is ramping up its spending on AI. Last week, Meta raised its capital expenditure forecast for 2026 to between $115 billion and $135 billion. CEO Mark Zuckerberg described 2026 as a pivotal year for the company as it seeks to invest heavily in “personal superintelligence.”

Despite these ambitious plans, Meta faces mounting risks from stricter regulations in both the U.S. and abroad. On Tuesday, India’s Supreme Court signaled that it might reinstate a ban on WhatsApp sharing user data with other Meta companies. India is Meta’s largest market by user count, and any further restrictions on its operations there could severely impact the company’s prospects.

Traders are left wondering how much of this proposed legislation will become law, and what the timeline might look like. Bills like the SCAM Act often undergo revisions before they are passed, with potential delays affecting near-term investor sentiment. Meanwhile, ongoing court battles, particularly in India, add to the uncertainty surrounding Meta’s future.

CME Group is reviewing new digital infrastructure options as it prepares to expand its crypto trading operations.

As part of a larger initiative to modernize margin and settlement for crypto derivatives, CME Group is exploring launching its own digital token. 

Chief executive officer Terry Duffy disclosed the plans during the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call on Feb. 4, in response to a question from Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Cyprys.

Tokenized collateral and margin strategy

Duffy’s comments came during a discussion about how CME is evaluating new forms of collateral for derivatives trading, particularly given that crypto markets operate around the clock.

“So if you were to give me a token from a systemically important financial institution, I would probably be more comfortable than maybe a third or fourth-tier bank trying to issue a token for margin,” Duffy said. “Not only are we looking at tokenized cash, we’re looking at different initiatives with our own coin.”

He added that CME is reviewing multiple approaches to margin and settlement, including tokenized cash and blockchain-based instruments that could be deployed on decentralized networks.

The proposed token, referred to in industry reports as a “CME Coin,” would likely be designed for use as collateral and settlement infrastructure rather than as a retail-facing cryptocurrency. Executives have framed the project as part of CME’s effort to improve capital efficiency and reduce friction in high-volume derivatives trading.

CME is also working with Google Cloud on a separate “tokenized cash” initiative, which the company expects to roll out later in 2026. That system could provide technical foundations for future digital collateral products.

No launch date, technical specifications, or regulatory filings have been announced, and executives stressed that the project is still in an exploratory phase.

24/7 crypto trading and institutional positioning

The token discussion comes as CME prepares to expand crypto trading hours across its futures and options products. Subject to regulatory approval, the exchange previously stated that it intends to begin full 24/7 trading for cryptocurrency derivatives in the second quarter of 2026.

CME’s goal is to enhance hedging on weekends and holidays and match its trading hours with non-stop cryptocurrency spot markets. The exchange’s market share in digital assets has steadily increased over the last year.

In late 2025, it introduced futures linked to assets like Solana and XRP, and market makers and hedge funds expressed strong interest. It will launch Cardano, Chainlink, and Stellar futures in both standard and micro contract sizes on Feb. 9.

As institutional demand for regulated products grew, the company also reported a sharp rise in crypto-related activity, with an average daily volume of $12 billion in 2025.

Startale Group and SBI Holdings have unveiled Strium, a layer-1 blockchain designed to underpin exchange-layer and settlement infrastructure for institutional trading of foreign exchange, tokenized equities, and real-world assets. Positioned as an exchange-layer network, Strium aims to streamline the movement between traditional off-chain finance and on-chain processes, including compliant dividend and royalty payments within the ecosystem. This launch marks a concrete milestone following an August 2025 strategic partnership between the two firms and comes alongside a set of proof-of-concept demonstrations intended to validate Strium’s technical foundations before broader deployment.

Key takeaways

• Strium is a dedicated layer-1 platform built to support institutional trading channels for FX, tokenized equities, and real-world assets, with a focus on settlement efficiency and cross-system interoperability.
• The initial phase will offer synthetic versions of US and Japanese stocks and commodities, functioning as derivative-like instruments rather than direct ownership of underlying assets.
• Longer-term plans include tokenized representations of real shares and asset-backed tokens, accessible through a compliant path after identity checks and regulatory adherence, plus an open layer for broader participation.
• The venture couples Startale Group’s tech vision with SBI Holdings’ regulated financial infrastructure and licensed entities, including exploration of a yen-stablecoin structure tied to Shinsei Trust & Banking and SBI VC Trade.
• Proof-of-concept work focuses on settlement throughput, system resilience under heavy load, and interoperability with legacy financial systems and other blockchain networks, with a public testnet anticipated en route to commercial deployment.

Market context: The Strium initiative arrives amid a broader industry push toward tokenization of traditional assets and exchange-traded products. In parallel, public disclosures have highlighted moves by traditional exchanges toward blockchain-enabled post-trade workflows, signaling a gradual convergence of regulated finance and on-chain infrastructure. Industry observers have also noted rising attention from banks and asset managers toward tokenized asset classes as liquidity and regulatory clarity evolve, a dynamic reinforced by industry reports suggesting tokenization could become more mainstream in coming years.

Market context: The broader market backdrop includes ongoing discussions about tokenized equity offerings and infrastructure upgrades, with institutions increasingly evaluating how blockchain-native settlement can complement existing trading workflows. This environment creates opportunities for joint ventures that combine regulated rails with on-chain programmability, especially for assets that require complex settlement patterns or cross-border compliance.

Market context: Industry developments around tokenized stocks and ETFs, as well as regulatory dialogues, continue to shape the pace at which platforms like Strium might scale. Notably, major exchange groups have publicly explored 24/7 trading and instant settlement via blockchain layers, underscoring a trend toward more fluid, cross-border access to tokenized assets.

Why it matters

The Strium project embodies a significant attempt to bring traditional asset classes into a regulated, on-chain settlement framework. By focusing on institutional-grade settlement infrastructure, the venture seeks to reduce counterparty risk, improve settlement latency, and enable more efficient dividend and royalty distributions within tokenized instruments. The emphasis on compliance-driven access—while also offering an open layer for broader participation—reflects a deliberate attempt to balance prudence with innovation as tokenization deepens its footprint in mainstream finance.

For investors and asset managers, Strium could lower the friction involved in trading tokenized foreign exchange and equities by consolidating liquidity, settlement, and custody under a single, regulated umbrella. The alliance between Startale Group and SBI Holdings brings together a technology-forward approach with deeply regulated financial infrastructure, potentially accelerating institutional comfort with on-chain representations of off-chain assets. If successful, the platform could serve as a blueprint for other cross-border tokenization efforts, including the layering of real-world assets onto blockchain rails while maintaining regulatory guardrails and governance standards.

From a market structure perspective, Strium signals how exchange-layer networks may evolve to support new forms of collateral, settlement, and asset representation. The project explicitly contends with the challenge of reconciling on-chain settlement with legacy financial systems, a task that has traditionally posed interoperability hurdles. Demonstrating robust performance under heavy transaction loads and ensuring resilience will be critical to gaining broader participation from custodians, asset managers, and regulated entities. The narrative around tokenized assets continues to hinge on the ability to deliver trust, transparency, and speed—a combination Strium targets to deliver through its PoC program.

Finally, the collaboration’s strategic components—bridging regulated finance with tokenized finance, exploring a yen-stablecoin framework, and engaging with regulators as markets scale—reflect a deliberate, phased approach to expansion. The plan to deploy a public testnet marks a tangible next step, offering researchers and practitioners a sandbox to stress-test settlement workflows and cross-network interoperability before commercial rollout.

What to watch next

• Public testnet launch and the results of the initial PoC demonstrations, including settlement throughput metrics and inter-network interoperability tests.
• Regulatory dialogues in Japan and other target markets as Strium expands its geographic footprint and moves toward live asset tokenization.
• Progress on tokenized representations of real shares and asset-backed tokens, and the criteria for access through compliant versus open layers.
• Updates on the yen-stablecoin initiative involving Shinsei Trust & Banking and SBI VC Trade, including any regulatory approvals and governance arrangements.
• Related infrastructure developments from traditional exchanges exploring tokenized platforms, including 24/7 trading and instant settlement capabilities.

Sources & verification

• Official statements from Startale Group and SBI Holdings regarding the Strium launch and its objectives.
• Strategic partnership announcement between Startale Group and SBI Holdings, dated August 2025.
• Details on the yen-stablecoin structure involving Shinsei Trust & Banking and SBI VC Trade.
• Public reports and announcements about NYSE/ICE exploring tokenized stocks and ETFs with 24/7 settlement capability.
• Sygnum’s report noting that tokenization is expected to gain mainstream traction in 2026.

Strium launches institutional-grade layer-1 for tokenized assets

Startale Group and SBI Holdings have unveiled Strium, a dedicated layer-1 blockchain engineered to support institutional participation in exchange-layer markets and the settlement of tokenized assets. The project targets three core asset classes—foreign exchange, tokenized equities, and real-world assets (RWAs)—and seeks to bridge the gap between traditional finance and on-chain ecosystems by enabling regulated dividend and royalty flows within a compliant framework. The platform’s architecture is described as an exchange-layer network designed to act as a scalable, interoperable substrate for institutional trading and settlement, rather than a consumer-oriented decentralized finance product.

In outlining the rationale behind Strium, Sota Watanabe, CEO of Startale Group, framed tokenization as an inevitable trend and highlighted equities tokenization as the next major market. The leadership intends Strium to function as a connective tissue between off-chain financial infrastructure and on-chain participants, thereby facilitating compliant distributions and payments that align with existing regulatory expectations. This emphasis on compliance is a throughline of the project, reflecting the participants’ intent to build a system that can operate within established financial markets while leveraging the advantages of tokenized representations.

The launch follows the two firms’ strategic partnership announced in August 2025, which laid the groundwork for joint development and resource sharing. The current phase includes proof-of-concept demonstrations designed to validate the platform’s core technical capabilities, particularly around settlement efficiency and cross-network interoperability. By focusing on these technical pillars, the teams aim to demonstrate that Strium can sustain high transaction volumes and complex settlement workflows typical of institutional trading environments.

Trading on Strium is set to begin with synthetic versions of U.S. and Japanese stocks and commodities. These synthetic instruments are described as derivative-like constructs rather than direct ownership of underlying assets. The approach serves as a controlled environment to refine settlement mechanics, governance protocols, and regulatory-compliant pathways before broader asset classes are introduced. As the platform scales, the plan is to extend tokenized representations to real shares and asset-backed tokens, contingent on identity verification and adherence to local regulatory regimes. An open layer is planned to accommodate participants who may not meet the stringent verification requirements, expanding access while preserving a compliant core.

The proof-of-concept phase is designed to stress-test settlement efficiency, resilience under peak loads, and interoperability with legacy financial systems and other blockchain networks. A public testnet—an essential step toward commercial deployment—will follow the initial demonstrations, providing a sandbox for independent researchers and potential users to assess operational readiness and security considerations. The project’s leadership emphasizes that regulatory engagement will evolve in step with geographic expansion, noting that discussions with Japanese authorities and other regulators will intensify as Strium moves from PoC toward market rollout.

From SBI Holdings’ perspective, the collaboration brings regulated financial infrastructure and licensed entities into the joint venture. Watanabe underscored that the group already participates in regulated digital-asset initiatives, including a yen-stablecoin concept involving Shinsei Trust & Banking and SBI VC Trade. While regulatory conversations remain a future priority, the emphasis remains on delivering a robust, compliant platform capable of supporting tokenized trading at scale. This approach reflects a broader industry pattern wherein traditional financial institutions seek to connect with blockchain-based settlement rails while maintaining governance and risk controls aligned with existing supervisory expectations.

Beyond Strium, the broader market context shows continued interest in tokenized finance across major exchanges. Notably, public disclosures indicate that the New York Stock Exchange and its parent company, Intercontinental Exchange, are pursuing a platform for tokenized stocks and ETFs with 24/7 access and instant settlement, signaling a shift toward faster, more flexible settlement workflows that could complement regulated tokenized products. Industry observers also point to a growing consensus among traditional institutions that tokenization will become more mainstream in the coming years, as highlighted by market analyses that anticipate broader adoption of blockchain-enabled infrastructure in traditional finance.

In sum, Strium represents a measured, regulatory-friendly foray into asset tokenization, with a clear focus on institutional usability and cross-system compatibility. If successful, the project could help standardize how tokenized FX, equities, and RWAs are traded and settled on a scalable, compliant platform, potentially accelerating the pace at which real-world assets enter the digital economy. The next steps—the public testnet, regulatory engagement, and the staged expansion into real assets—will be critical to determining whether Strium can deliver on its promise of a robust, institutionally viable tokenized asset ecosystem.

Bitcoin BTC$76,073.52 mining stocks kicked off 2026 on a strong note, buoyed by falling network competition and fresh enthusiasm around high-performance computing (HPC), Wall Street bank JPMorgan said in the Monday report.

The bank noted that the 14 U.S.-listed bitcoin miners and data center operators it tracks ended last month with a combined market capitalization of $60 billion, up 23% month over month, far outpacing the S&P 500’s 1% gain.

The rally was helped in part by news that Riot Platforms signed a HPC agreement with AMD at its 700-megawatt Rockdale facility, underscoring miners’ push to diversify beyond bitcoin.

Facing record-low margins after the 2024 halving, bitcoin miners are repositioning as digital infrastructure providers, repurposing power-dense mining sites into AI-ready data centers in search of steadier, long-term revenue.

At the same time, valuations continued to stretch. Analysts Reginald Smith and Charles Pearce said mining stocks were trading at roughly 150% of the four-year block reward opportunity at year-end, about three times the post-2022 average, highlighting a growing disconnect between miner valuations and bitcoin’s price.

Operationally, January brought relief. Winter storms across the U.S. forced widespread curtailments, dragging the average network hashrate down 6% month over month to 981 exahashes per second (EH/s), JPMorgan said. The hashrate briefly dipped as low as 700 EH/s during the month, while mining difficulty fell 5% from December and sat 10% below November’s all-time high.

The hashrate refers to the total combined computational power used to mine and process transactions on a proof-of-work blockchain, and is a proxy for competition in the industry and mining difficulty. It is measured in exahashes per second.

That drop in competition helped offset weaker bitcoin prices. The analysts estimated miners earned about $42,350 per EH/s in daily block reward revenue in January, up slightly from December, while gross profit jumped 24% to roughly $21,200 per EH/s as network efficiency improved. Still, profitability remains well below pre-halving levels, the bank noted.

Stock performance was broadly positive. Twelve of the 14 miners tracked by the bank outperformed bitcoin’s 4% decline in January, with IREN (IREN) rising 42% and Cango (CANG) falling 18%. Even after the rally, the group’s combined valuation remains about 15% below October 2025 highs.

Read more: Bitcoin miners HIVE, Bitfarm and Bitdeer downgraded as analyst warns on AI shift

HV-MTL, one of the leading non-fungible token collections in the global non-fungible token market, has skyrocketed in terms of trading sales volume and floor price value after Mr. Adam Weitsman announced that there would be an HV-MTL strategy token. In the past 24 hours, the HV-MTL NFT collection has recorded trading volume of 2.28 ETH, a +70% increase from the previous day.

HV-MTLs Jump +100% In The Past 24 Hrs

Data compiled by coingecko.com, an on-chain crypto and non-fungible token data explorer that tracks NFT collections from more than 20 blockchain networks, shows that the HV-MTLs NFT collection has recorded positive growth today. In the past 24 hours, the HV-MTL NFT collection has amassed trading volume of 2.28 ETH, a 73% increase from the previous day.

In response to today’s surge, the HV-MTL NFT collection has climbed by 118% over the past seven days, 119% over the past two weeks, and 229% over the past 30 days. The Hv-MTL NFT floor price has reacted vigorously today. On January 18, the HV-MTL NFT floor price jumped from 0.05 ETH to 0.07ETH. At the time of publication, the HV-MTL NFT floor price is 0.06 ETH.

Launched in 2022, HV-MTL (Heavy Metal) is an NFT collection featuring a limited edition of 30,000 unique NFTs representing a different mech with evolving traits, unlocked through seasonal gameplay and player action. These NFTs were originally launched by the Bored Ape creator Yuga Labs, then acquired by Faraway Games, and are now owned by entrepreneur Adam Weitsman, who purchased the IP from Faraway in late 2024 to further develop the collection and integrate it into the Otherside metaverse.

HV-MTL Strategy Token Is Coming Soon

In a January 18 blog post, Billionaire Adam Weitsman announced that his company has partnered with Token Works to launch its new token strategy. TokenWorks is the team behind the innovative NFT Strategy protocols like PunkStrategy and PudgyStrategy, which transform static NFTs into dynamic, cash-flowing assets using automated trading strategies and a self-reinforcing flywheel of fee collection, NFT buybacks, and token burns to create perpetual value and liquidity for NFT collections. The highly anticipated HV-MTL NFT strategy will be launched on January 26, 2026.

HV-MTLs are up 128% after @AdamWeitsman announced that there will be a HV-MTL strategy token with @token_works

The STR token isn’t even launched but you can already see that the token… works https://t.co/lMCPH08Uvf pic.twitter.com/y27qWnAfS4

— JBond (@jbondwagon) January 18, 2026

Related NFT News:

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Ethereum has extended its corrective phase and is now trading at a technically decisive area, where higher-timeframe demand and market structure intersect. The price behaviour around this zone is critical in determining whether ETH stabilizes in a broader range or resumes its downside momentum.

Ethereum Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, Ethereum has reached a crucial support zone around the $2K area, which aligns with a major prior yearly low and a historically significant demand region. This level has previously acted as a strong base for accumulation, and the market’s reaction here suggests growing sensitivity among participants.

The sharp sell-off into this zone reflects aggressive bearish momentum, but the absence of immediate continuation lower indicates that selling pressure may be temporarily exhausting. From a structural perspective, this area represents a decision point where sustained acceptance below it could open the door to deeper downside, while stabilization above it increases the probability of consolidation.

At this stage, the most likely outcome on the daily chart is a consolidation and range-bound phase as the market digests recent losses and awaits fresh demand or a clear macro catalyst.

ETH/USDT 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour timeframe, the price action shows a descending fluctuation while holding within the critical $2K support range. The market is compressing after the impulsive sell-off, with lower highs forming against relatively stable lows, a behaviour often seen near short-term exhaustion points.

This structure leaves room for a temporary bullish rebound, driven by short-covering or reactive demand, particularly after the steep downside move. However, this potential rebound should be viewed as corrective rather than trend-reversing.

The dominant scenario remains an expanded range environment, where Ethereum oscillates within a defined structure, bounded by $2K and $3K threhsolds, until meaningful demand enters the market or a new supply zone forms above, reasserting directional bias.

Sentiment Analysis

The Ethereum Coinbase Premium Index is currently deeply negative and has dropped to levels last seen around the previous year’s major market lows, signalling a clear bearish state in market sentiment. This persistent negative premium reflects sustained selling pressure from US-based investors, with Ethereum trading at a discount on Coinbase relative to offshore exchanges.

Historically, such conditions indicate weak spot demand from institutional and high-conviction buyers, reinforcing the broader corrective structure seen on price charts.

However, it is also important to note that in past cycles, Ethereum has consistently shifted into a bullish phase only after this indicator recovered and turned positive, signalling the return of strong spot demand. As long as the premium remains negative, downside risk and range continuation dominate, leaving the market in a bearish state.

Imagine this: You wake up, check your exchange account, and… your funds are frozen. Or worse, gone. Meanwhile, a friend using a DeFi wallet hasn’t even touched a centralized platform—and they control every penny. This isn’t just luck. It’s the difference between true ownership and handing over your crypto to someone else.

So, who really owns your crypto?

Centralized vs. DeFi Wallets: The Basics

Centralized Wallets live on platforms like Coinbase, Binance, or Kraken. You trust these companies to store your crypto safely. The perks? Convenience, easy password recovery if you forget it, and customer support. The catch? You don’t own your private keys. That means technically, you don’t own your crypto. Exchanges can freeze, lose, or even hack your funds.

DeFi Wallets, or self-custody wallets, put private keys in your hands. Popular examples include MetaMask, Argent, and Ledger hardware wallets. You hold the keys, you hold the power. Want to interact with DeFi protocols, stake, lend, or trade directly on-chain? These wallets are the only way to do it. The downside: if you lose your keys or fall for a phishing scam, there’s no one to call for help.

Private Keys: The Soul of Crypto Ownership

Your private key isn’t just a password—it’s your financial identity. Lose it, and the crypto is gone forever. Share it carelessly, and someone else can drain your wallet in minutes.

But innovations are making this safer:

• Smart wallets automate transaction approvals and allow social recovery.

• Multi-signature wallets (multisig) require multiple keys to approve transactions, reducing single-point-of-failure risks.

• Hardware wallets keep keys offline, safe from phishing and malware.

The message? Ownership is powerful—but with power comes responsibility.

Risks & Tradeoffs

Here’s the hard truth: no wallet is 100% safe.Think of it like this: centralized wallets are like renting an apartment—you’re protected in some ways, but ultimately someone else holds the keys. DeFi wallets are like owning a house—you have freedom, but the roof collapses on you if you neglect maintenance.

Use Cases: When Each Makes Sense

• Beginners or small investors: Centralized wallets for simplicity and minimal risk of mistakes.

• Active DeFi users/yield farmers: Self-custody wallets are a must. You can stake, lend, and earn directly without middlemen.

• Traders across multiple chains: A hybrid approach works best—hardware wallets for storage, smart wallets for daily transactions.

The Future of Wallets

Wallets are evolving fast:

• Smart contract wallets are making UX much smoother.

• Account abstraction and gasless transactions are lowering entry barriers.

• Wallets as identity layers are on the rise—your wallet could become your login, reputation, and financial footprint online.

Ownership isn’t just about money anymore—it’s about digital identity and freedom.

Conclusion: Ownership Matters

Crypto promises financial sovereignty. But that promise only exists if you actually control your assets. Centralized wallets offer convenience but at the cost of control. DeFi wallets put the responsibility—and the power—in your hands.

Start small. Experiment with a self-custody wallet. Learn how to store keys safely. Once you get the hang of it, you’ll understand why ownership isn’t just about holding crypto—it’s about being in charge of your financial destiny.

Bonus Tips: Don’t Lose Your Crypto

• Store your seed phrase offline, never online.

• Use hardware wallets for large amounts.

• Enable multisig for team or family wallets.

• Double-check contracts before approving transactions.

• Keep a small testing wallet for DeFi experiments.

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Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

Bitcoin is entering the Asian trading day with on-chain data flashing full bear-market signals, as prices hover in the mid-$70,000s and global equity markets continue to search for direction.

CryptoQuant’s latest weekly report frames the weakness as structural rather than cyclical, with its Bull Score Index sitting at zero while bitcoin trades far below its October peak. The report argues the market is no longer digesting gains but operating with a thinner buyer base and tightening liquidity.

Glassnode data reinforces that picture, pointing to weak spot volumes and a demand vacuum where selling pressure is not being met with sustained absorption. In effect, the issue is less panic than participation.

Institutional flows underline the shift. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, which were net accumulators at this time last year, have flipped into net sellers, creating a year over year demand gap measured in tens of thousands of bitcoin.

At the same time, the Coinbase premium has remained negative since October, signaling that U.S. investors are not meaningfully stepping in despite lower prices. Historically, sustained bull phases have coincided with strong U.S. spot demand. That engine is currently idling.

Liquidity conditions are also tightening beneath the surface. Stablecoin expansion, which typically fuels risk appetite and trading activity, has stalled, with USDT market cap growth turning negative for the first time since 2023.

Longer-term apparent demand growth has likewise collapsed from last year’s highs, suggesting this is not merely leverage being flushed but participation itself fading. Technically, bitcoin remains below its 365-day moving average, with on-chain valuation bands clustering major support in the $70,000 to $60,000 corridor.

Overlaying this is a macro backdrop where bitcoin is increasingly behaving like high-beta software rather than digital gold. Prediction markets show traders still leaning heavily toward no change at the Federal Reserve’s April meeting, with only modest expectations for a June rate cut. That hesitancy limits the prospect of near term liquidity relief.

The policy narrative is further complicated by politics. President Donald Trump recently spoke to the press about his Fed nominee Kevin Warsh and said during an interview with NBC News a Fed chair who wanted to raise rates “would not have gotten the job,” a remark that tempers earlier optimism about central bank independence.

For Asia, the result is a market defined less by shock than by absence, where bounces remain possible, but conviction remains thin.

Market Movement

BTC: Bitcoin drifted lower into the mid $70,000s after briefly testing support, with rebounds fading quickly as spot demand remained thin and tech stocks stayed under pressure.

ETH: Ether hovered just above the low $2,000s, struggling to build momentum as broader risk sentiment softened and flows remained muted across major exchanges.

Gold: Gold rebounded toward the $5,000 to $5,100 range, extending a volatile recovery driven by safe-haven buying after U.S.–Iran tensions flared and softer private payroll data offset mixed economic signals while traders reassessed the Fed outlook under Trump’s new chair pick.

Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 edged lower by roughly 0.3% as chip and tech heavyweights tracked Wall Street’s sell-off, though broader Japanese equities remained relatively resilient compared with regional peers.

Elsewhere in Crypto:

• Binance denies issuing legal threats over insolvency allegations (The Block)
• Multicoin Capital co-founder Kyle Samani steps down after nearly a decade to pursue other areas of tech (CoinDesk)

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission moved to reverse a Biden-era rule proposal that would have barred sports, politics and war-related prediction markets, signaling a recalibration under the agency’s current leadership. CFTC Chair Mike Selig announced on Wednesday that the agency is withdrawing the 2024 notice of proposed rulemaking that sought to ban event contracts tied to public-interest events, and that the commission does not plan to issue final rules on that proposal. Instead, the CFTC intends to pursue a new rulemaking anchored in a rational interpretation of the Commodity Exchange Act, aiming to balance investor protections with responsible innovation in derivatives markets. This shift comes as prediction-market platforms—widely used for forecasting events—navigate a patchwork of state enforcement actions and ongoing regulatory debates over how they should be treated within the U.S. financial framework. The move also echoes broader regulatory conversations about how digital-asset markets and related products should be supervised.

Key takeaways

• The CFTC formally withdrew the 2024 notice of proposed rulemaking that would have banned sports, political and other event contracts, labeling them as contrary to the public interest.
• Chair Mike Selig stated the agency will pursue a new rulemaking grounded in the Commodity Exchange Act to foster responsible innovation in derivatives markets aligned with congressional intent.
• The withdrawal signals a pivot away from a broader ban towards a more measured, standards-based approach to event contracts and related platforms.
• Prediction-market operators like Polymarket and Kalshi have faced state-level enforcement actions, with platforms arguing they are regulated by the CFTC and not unlicensed gambling.
• The agency also pulled a September staff letter that warned regulated entities to prepare for litigation and to maintain robust risk management in facilitating sports-related event contracts.

Sentiment: Neutral

Market context: The development arrives amid intensifying regulatory scrutiny of crypto-related products and event-driven contracts, while regulators explore a coordinated approach to oversight across asset classes. The shift follows a broader debate about how prediction markets fit within the U.S. securities and commodities frameworks and reflects ongoing conversations about how innovation can coexist with investor protection in a evolving market landscape.

Why it matters

The decision to withdraw the proposed prohibition on event contracts signals a more deliberate, regulator-led path forward for a sector that earned rapid traction in the crypto and fintech space. By signaling a move toward a rulemaking grounded in the Commodity Exchange Act, the commission acknowledges the complexity of product design, consumer risk, and market dynamics in prediction markets. For developers and operators, this could translate into a clearer, more predictable regulatory runway—albeit one that may still constrain certain product features or market access in the future.

Prediction-market platforms have been at the center of a legal and political struggle. Polymarket and Kalshi pressed ahead with contracts tied to a wide range of events, including sports outcomes, election results, and other timely topics. States such as Nevada have pursued enforcement actions, arguing that such contracts amount to unlicensed gambling, while platforms contend they are regulated under the CFTC. The tension highlights a broader policy question: should prediction markets be treated primarily as financial derivatives subject to federal oversight, or as a separate class of information markets with distinct rules? The withdrawal of the rulemaking proposal pushes regulators to develop a more nuanced framework that could determine whether such markets persist, mature, or evolve in structure and scope.

Moreover, the withdrawal of the September staff letter—issued amid a period of uncertainty and ahead of a potential government slowdown—suggests a period of recalibration in how the CFTC communicates expectations to market participants. The letter warned that firms should prepare for litigation and emphasize contingency planning, disclosures, and risk-management policies. While the agency framed the advisory as a reminder of litigation considerations, Selig noted it had unintentionally created confusion. The unfurling of a dedicated event-contract rulemaking implies a more deliberate approach to both enforcement and guidance as the market evolves.

The agency’s action aligns with broader regulatory shifts described in related reporting about coordination among U.S. market regulators on crypto oversight and a continuing reassessment of how innovation fits within established statutory authority. As the crypto ecosystem expands to include more complex financial instruments and cross-border activity, policymakers are weighing how to maintain investor protections without stifling beneficial market developments. The CFTC’s pivot—away from an outright ban toward a structured rulemaking—reflects a central tension in the regulatory landscape: balancing the allure of predictive- and event-based markets with the need for clarity, compliance, and consumer safeguards.

For stakeholders, the immediate implication is a clearer signal that the federal framework may offer a path for legitimate, regulated event markets to operate under defined standards. That does not guarantee-permanent permission for every product, but it increases the likelihood of formal guidance and a transparent process for evaluating individual contracts, platforms, and business models. The reshaped trajectory could influence funding, market participation, and strategic development for firms that have built significant user bases around event-focused trading, including those exploring tokenized and cross-chain versions of prediction markets.

In the broader context, the withdrawal reinforces the notion that the regulatory environment remains dynamic. While some participants seek quicker, broader access to innovative products, the evolving stance of U.S. regulators underscores the importance of compliance-readiness, robust risk controls, and an ability to adapt to changing rules. As the CFTC moves toward a new framework, market participants will be watching for forthcoming rulemaking notices, public-comment windows, and how state and federal authorities coordinate their enforcement and supervisory actions in this rapidly changing space.

What to watch next

• A formal rulemaking notice on event contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act, outlining permissible structures and registration requirements.
• Public-comment period and industry feedback shaping the final framework for prediction markets.
• Regulatory updates or clarifications regarding specific platforms (e.g., Polymarket, Kalshi) and their compliance posture with federal law.
• Any new guidance or reporting requirements from the CFTC related to sports and political event contracts.

Sources & verification

• CFTC press release: Withdrawal of 2024 notice of proposed rulemaking (9179-26).
• Chair Mike Selig’s public remarks and official communications (X post).
• Related reporting on the CFTC chair transition and policy discussions.
• State actions and platform responses regarding sports event contracts (e.g., Nevada actions; Coinbase/Crypto.com references in coverage).

Regulatory recalibration reshapes prediction markets

The renewal of this policy path begins with a recognition that the original 2024 proposal—seen by supporters as a bold move to curb what some labeled speculative gambling—did not reflect a holistic view of how event-driven contracts function within modern markets. By withdrawing the proposal, the commission opens space for a more measured, evidence-based approach to rulemaking. The new process will be anchored in the Commodity Exchange Act and guided by congressional intent to enable responsible innovation in derivatives markets, while preserving critical investor protections.

As stated in the agency’s communications, the commission intends to frame future rules through a rational interpretation of the existing statute, rather than relying on broad prohibitions. That nuance matters: it signals a potential for future, carefully scoped products that could be offered under a clear regulatory license regime, with defined risk disclosures, dispute-resolution mechanisms, and capital requirements. For participants who rely on prediction markets for price discovery, hedging, or information gathering, clearer federal guidance could improve certainty and reduce litigation risk, even as particular contract designs and market access criteria are vetted by regulators.

The ongoing dialogue between federal regulators, state authorities, and market participants underscores a broader theme in the cryptocurrency and derivatives space: innovation is not inherently at odds with oversight, but it requires a governance framework that is adaptive, transparent, and aligned with statutory authority. The CFTC’s decision to pivot away from an outright ban toward a formal rulemaking process reflects this balance-seeking impulse. It also positions the agency to address a spectrum of market models—from traditional exchange-based contracts to novel, tokenized formats—within a single, coherent regulatory architecture.

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