Connect with us

Crypto World

Polymarket Prices In a $70K February for Bitcoin

Published

on

Polymarket Prices In a $70K February for Bitcoin

Bitcoin briefly dipped below $72,000 on Thursday morning in early Asian trading hours, hitting its lowest level in nearly 16 months. As the selloff deepens, prediction market traders on Polymarket are rapidly repricing their expectations — and the data paints a sobering picture for the short term, even as longer-term optimism persists.

Polymarket’s real-money contracts show a market caught between defending $70,000 as a floor and clinging to $100,000 in annual returns.

Sponsored

Sponsored

Advertisement

February Outlook: $70K Is the Line in the Sand

Polymarket’s February Bitcoin price contract, with 24 days remaining and nearly $1.78 million in volume on the $70,000 target alone, tells a clear story.

The $70,000 contract surged to 74% probability — up 65% — making it the most heavily traded target for the month. Upside expectations have collapsed: the $85,000 contract plunged 61% to just 29%, while $90,000 sits at 12% and $95,000 at only 7%.

On the downside, the $65,000 contract dropped 13% to 39%, while $60,000 holds at 19%. Probabilities of a crash below $55,000 are in the single digits. The implied range for February is $65,000–$85,000, with $70,000 as the most probable point.

2026 Annual Contract: Still Bullish, but Fraying

The longer-term Polymarket contract shows a more nuanced picture. The $100,000 level has a 55% probability but is down 29%, while $110,000 is at 42% and down 29%. These are significant declines from just weeks ago, when traders were pricing in a continuation of 2025’s rally.

The $65,000 contract for 2026 surged 24% to 83% with over $1 million in volume — the highest on the board — signaling traders are focused on downside protection rather than upside speculation. The upper curve drops steeply: $130,000 at 20%, $140,000 at 15%, and $250,000 near 5%.

Advertisement

Sponsored

Sponsored

What’s Driving the Selloff

Bitcoin was trading at approximately $73,199 at the time of writing, after briefly dipping below $72,000 earlier Thursday. The token has fallen 16% year-to-date and roughly 40% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000.

Multiple factors are converging: rising geopolitical tensions, lingering data gaps from last fall’s record 43-day government shutdown, and a hawkish Federal Reserve chair nomination, strengthening the dollar

The technical damage has been severe. Over $5.4 billion in liquidations have occurred since late January, pushing open interest to a nine-month low. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have bled capital for most of the past three weeks, with outflows of $817 million on January 29, $509 million on January 30, and $272 million on February 3, punctuated by a single $561 million inflow day on February 2. Total net assets across spot Bitcoin ETFs have fallen from over $128 billion in mid-January to $97 billion.

Advertisement

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has plunged to 12 — deep in “Extreme Fear” and its lowest since November 2025. Gold, meanwhile, has surged past $5,000 per ounce, underscoring a broad rotation into safe havens.

The Bottom Line

Polymarket’s data offers a real-time window into how traders with money on the line are positioned. February expectations center on $65,000–$85,000 with almost no chance of reclaiming $95,000.

The annual contract is more forgiving, with a slim majority still expecting $100,000 sometime in 2026. But even that conviction is weakening. For now, $70,000 is the number everyone is watching.

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Crypto World

Trump-Linked Truth Social Files for Bitcoin, Ethereum and CRO Staking ETFs

Published

on

Trump-Linked Truth Social Files for Bitcoin, Ethereum and CRO Staking ETFs

Trump Media and Technology Group is expanding its push into digital assets, filing for two new cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds tied to Bitcoin, Ether and the Cronos ecosystem.

Key Takeaways:

  • Trump Media filed for two crypto ETFs tracking Bitcoin, Ether and the Cronos token.
  • The Cronos fund would include staking rewards with Crypto.com providing custody and services.
  • The move deepens ties between US politics and the growing crypto investment sector.

Truth Social Funds, the ETF arm of the company behind the Truth Social platform, submitted applications Friday for the “Truth Social Bitcoin and Ether ETF” and the “Truth Social Cronos Yield Maximizer ETF.”

The filings mark another step in the growing overlap between US politics and the crypto investment industry.

Truth Social ETFs Target Bitcoin, Ether and CRO With Staking Rewards

Advertisement

The proposed Bitcoin and Ether ETF would track the performance of the two largest cryptocurrencies, reportedly using an allocation weighted toward Bitcoin.

The Cronos product, meanwhile, would provide exposure to CRO, the native token of the Crypto.com-linked Cronos blockchain, while also offering staking rewards to investors.

Crypto.com is partnering with Trump Media on the products and is expected to provide custody, liquidity and staking services.

CEO Kris Marszalek said the company supports the funds and plans to enable trading access once they launch.

Advertisement

The new filings follow a previous agreement between the firms to introduce crypto investment products and continue a broader strategy by Trump Media to establish a presence in digital finance.

The company had already sought approval for a standalone Bitcoin ETF and a multi-asset crypto fund that included several major tokens.

The ETF market is increasingly competitive. Asset managers such as BlackRock, Fidelity and Grayscale already operate widely traded Bitcoin investment vehicles, giving investors indirect exposure to crypto without holding tokens directly.

Advertisement

Trump Media has also signaled interest in integrating blockchain beyond ETFs.

The company recently said it intends to distribute a new digital token to shareholders on the Cronos network and previously disclosed plans for a corporate crypto treasury involving CRO.

The expansion has drawn political scrutiny, with critics arguing the president’s business ventures could create conflicts of interest, particularly as regulatory decisions affecting digital assets are debated in Washington.

Last year, Trump Media also announced a partnership with Crypto.com to bring prediction markets to the social media platform, positioning it as the first publicly traded social media company to integrate such technology.

Advertisement

Bitcoin Loses 25,000 Millionaire Addresses Under Trump

As reported, Bitcoin has shed roughly 25,000 millionaire addresses in the year since Donald Trump returned to the White House, even as US policy shifted toward a more crypto-friendly stance.

Blockchain data shows the number of addresses holding at least $1 million in BTC fell about 16% year over year, suggesting regulatory optimism has not translated into sustained on-chain wealth growth.

The pullback was less severe among the largest holders. Addresses with more than $10 million in Bitcoin declined by about 12.5%, indicating that top-tier investors were better able to withstand price volatility, while wallets near the millionaire threshold were more exposed to market swings.

Advertisement

Much of the increase in Bitcoin millionaire addresses occurred before Trump took office, driven by a late-2024 rally fueled by election-related optimism and expectations of deregulation.

The post Trump-Linked Truth Social Files for Bitcoin, Ethereum and CRO Staking ETFs appeared first on Cryptonews.

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Crypto World

Mirae Asset to Buy 92% Stake in Korbit for $93M

Published

on

Crypto Breaking News

Mirae Asset Consulting, an affiliate of South Korea’s Mirae Asset Group, is moving to take control of local crypto exchange Korbit. In a regulatory filing, the company agreed to acquire 26.9 million Korbit shares for 133.48 billion won, roughly $93 million, securing a 92.06% ownership stake in the exchange. The purchase will be paid entirely in cash, and the deal has the board’s approval as of February 5. Completion is expected within seven business days after all contractual closing conditions are satisfied, underscoring a rapid move to consolidate a regulated digital-asset business within Korea’s evolving crypto infrastructure. The filing notes Mirae Asset intends to secure future growth drivers through digital-asset (virtual-asset) businesses.

Key takeaways

  • Mirae Asset Consulting agrees to buy 26.9 million Korbit shares for 133.48 billion won, gaining about 92.06% ownership in the exchange, with cash as the payment method.
  • The acquisition received board approval on February 5, and is slated to close within seven business days after contractual closing conditions are satisfied.
  • Korbit’s current ownership structure includes about 60.5% held by NXC and Simple Capital Futures, with SK Square owning roughly 31.5%.
  • Korbit reported 8.7 billion won in revenue and 9.8 billion won in net profit in its latest fiscal year, reversing prior losses.
  • The exchange operates with a full license and established compliance infrastructure, potentially making it an attractive vehicle for a financial group seeking regulated exposure to digital assets.

Tickers mentioned:

Market context: The deal unfolds within Korea’s tightly regulated crypto landscape, where Upbit and Bithumb dominate daily trading volumes, and Korbit remains a smaller player by comparison. Data cited by CoinGecko shows Korbit’s roughly $59.9 million in 24-hour trading activity versus Upbit’s about $2.16 billion and Bithumb’s around $1.36 billion. The transaction signals ongoing consolidation among domestic exchanges as traditional financial groups pursue regulated access to digital-asset markets.

Market context: The broader environment in Korea has long featured a push toward licensed operations and stronger compliance frameworks, with regulators scrutinizing promotions and business practices in the sector. The move by a major asset manager to take control of a licensed exchange aligns with a broader trend of institutional players seeking regulated exposure to crypto markets rather than unregistered platforms.

Why it matters

The planned acquisition marks a notable shift in Korea’s crypto ecosystem, illustrating how conventional financial groups are intensifying their strategic bets on digital-asset infrastructure. Mirae Asset’s intention to leverage Korbit’s established license and compliance capabilities could accelerate the exchange’s product, risk controls, and customer onboarding processes, potentially translating into stronger operating leverage for the platform as part of a larger asset-management and fintech ecosystem.

Advertisement

For Korbit, the deal provides a clear path to liquidity and alignment with a major financial conglomerate, potentially enabling enhanced interoperability with traditional banking channels and institutional-grade custody solutions. The company’s reported 8.7 billion won in revenue and 9.8 billion won in net profit in its most recent fiscal year reflect a profitability trajectory that may have attracted Mirae Asset’s interest in expanding regulated, scalable digital-asset services. Korbit’s ownership structure—where NXC and Simple Capital Futures hold a majority stake alongside SK Square—suggests a transition moment that could reshape the exchange’s governance and strategic direction under new majority ownership.

From a market perspective, the deal emphasizes the continuing maturation of Korea’s crypto market, where licensed venues like Korbit coexist with larger platforms and regulatory scrutiny. The emphasis on a cash deal and rapid closing also signals a preference for definitive, trustee-like control structures to manage risk and ensure a swift integration path for regulatory-compliant digital-asset activities. As regulatory expectations evolve, the success of Mirae Asset’s investment could hinge on how smoothly Korbit can integrate into a broader digital-asset strategy and how it adapts to evolving compliance standards and product requirements.

What to watch next

  • The contractual closing conditions must be satisfied, with settlement anticipated within seven business days after those requirements are met.
  • The integration of Korbit into Mirae Asset’s digital-asset framework and any organizational changes at the exchange.
  • Regulatory confirmations or conditions that may accompany the closing process and any post-merger compliance reviews.

Sources & verification

  • DART filing: rcpNo=20260213002679, detailing the cash acquisition and ownership thesis.
  • Korbit’s financials: revenue of 8.7 billion won and net profit of 9.8 billion won in the latest fiscal year.
  • Korbit ownership: NXC and Simple Capital Futures ~60.5%, SK Square ~31.5%.
  • Trading volume context: Upbit (~$2.16 billion) and Bithumb (~$1.36 billion) in 24-hour activity; Korbit ~ $59.9 million, per CoinGecko data.

What the move means for Korea’s crypto landscape

Mirae Asset’s Korbit bet signals a broader push into regulated crypto markets

The transaction represents a decisive step in the ongoing consolidation of Korea’s digital-asset infrastructure, where license and compliance play a critical role in determining strategic value. Mirae Asset’s cash offer and rapid cadence may set a precedent for other traditional financial groups evaluating similar moves, especially those seeking to bolster exposure to regulated crypto ecosystems without bearing the full operational burden of building a compliant platform from scratch. As the ecosystem evolves, Korbit’s improved access to Mirae Asset’s capital and infrastructure could translate into more robust risk controls, enhanced product offerings, and greater interoperability with mainstream financial services.

In the near term, stakeholders will be watching how Korbit navigates post-acquisition governance, how the integration aligns with Mirae Asset’s broader digital-asset strategy, and whether the deal serves as a catalyst for other exchanges to pursue strategic partnerships or consolidations. For investors and users, the development underscores the ongoing transition of crypto services from scrappy startups to regulated, institution-friendly platforms—an arc that could influence liquidity, product quality, and regulatory clarity across Korea’s crypto market.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

Advertisement

Source link

Continue Reading

Crypto World

Mirae Asset to Buy Controlling Stake at Korea’s Korbit Exchange for $93M

Published

on

Mirae Asset to Buy Controlling Stake at Korea’s Korbit Exchange for $93M

Mirae Asset Consulting, an affiliate of South Korean multinational financial services company Mirae Asset Group, has agreed to acquire a controlling stake in local crypto exchange Korbit.

The company plans to purchase 26.9 million shares of Korbit for 133.48 billion won (about $93 million), a transaction that would give it a 92.06% ownership interest in the exchange, according to a Friday regulatory filing. The payment will be made entirely in cash

Mirae Asset said the purpose of the acquisition is “to secure future growth drivers through digital-asset (virtual-asset) businesses,” per the filing. The company’s board approved the decision on Feb. 5, while reports on the planned deal initially surfaced last year.

The transaction has not yet closed. The settlement will occur once contractual closing conditions are satisfied, with completion expected within seven business days after those requirements are met.

Advertisement

Related: How a Bitcoin promotion error triggered a regulatory reckoning in South Korea

Korbit returns to profit after sale talks

Korbit reported 8.7 billion won in revenue and 9.8 billion won in net profit in its most recent fiscal year, reversing losses recorded in prior years.