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Polymarket Prices In a $70K February for Bitcoin

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Polymarket Prices In a $70K February for Bitcoin

Bitcoin briefly dipped below $72,000 on Thursday morning in early Asian trading hours, hitting its lowest level in nearly 16 months. As the selloff deepens, prediction market traders on Polymarket are rapidly repricing their expectations — and the data paints a sobering picture for the short term, even as longer-term optimism persists.

Polymarket’s real-money contracts show a market caught between defending $70,000 as a floor and clinging to $100,000 in annual returns.

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February Outlook: $70K Is the Line in the Sand

Polymarket’s February Bitcoin price contract, with 24 days remaining and nearly $1.78 million in volume on the $70,000 target alone, tells a clear story.

The $70,000 contract surged to 74% probability — up 65% — making it the most heavily traded target for the month. Upside expectations have collapsed: the $85,000 contract plunged 61% to just 29%, while $90,000 sits at 12% and $95,000 at only 7%.

On the downside, the $65,000 contract dropped 13% to 39%, while $60,000 holds at 19%. Probabilities of a crash below $55,000 are in the single digits. The implied range for February is $65,000–$85,000, with $70,000 as the most probable point.

2026 Annual Contract: Still Bullish, but Fraying

The longer-term Polymarket contract shows a more nuanced picture. The $100,000 level has a 55% probability but is down 29%, while $110,000 is at 42% and down 29%. These are significant declines from just weeks ago, when traders were pricing in a continuation of 2025’s rally.

The $65,000 contract for 2026 surged 24% to 83% with over $1 million in volume — the highest on the board — signaling traders are focused on downside protection rather than upside speculation. The upper curve drops steeply: $130,000 at 20%, $140,000 at 15%, and $250,000 near 5%.

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What’s Driving the Selloff

Bitcoin was trading at approximately $73,199 at the time of writing, after briefly dipping below $72,000 earlier Thursday. The token has fallen 16% year-to-date and roughly 40% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000.

Multiple factors are converging: rising geopolitical tensions, lingering data gaps from last fall’s record 43-day government shutdown, and a hawkish Federal Reserve chair nomination, strengthening the dollar

The technical damage has been severe. Over $5.4 billion in liquidations have occurred since late January, pushing open interest to a nine-month low. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have bled capital for most of the past three weeks, with outflows of $817 million on January 29, $509 million on January 30, and $272 million on February 3, punctuated by a single $561 million inflow day on February 2. Total net assets across spot Bitcoin ETFs have fallen from over $128 billion in mid-January to $97 billion.

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The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has plunged to 12 — deep in “Extreme Fear” and its lowest since November 2025. Gold, meanwhile, has surged past $5,000 per ounce, underscoring a broad rotation into safe havens.

The Bottom Line

Polymarket’s data offers a real-time window into how traders with money on the line are positioned. February expectations center on $65,000–$85,000 with almost no chance of reclaiming $95,000.

The annual contract is more forgiving, with a slim majority still expecting $100,000 sometime in 2026. But even that conviction is weakening. For now, $70,000 is the number everyone is watching.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Set To Sync With Stocks, Possibly Chasing New Range Highs

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Bitcoin Set To Sync With Stocks, Possibly Chasing New Range Highs

Bitcoin (BTC) treaded water at Thursday’s Wall Street open as the S&P 500 reached new all-time highs.

Key points:

  • Bitcoin stays locked on $74,000 after its local highs preceded a new record for the S&P 500.

  • Analysis warns that the US midterm elections may impact the stock rally.

  • Bitcoin could follow the Nasdaq 100 higher, a trader suggests.

BTC price tripped after fresh highs from the S&P 500

Data from TradingView showed $74,000 continuing to form an intraday BTC price focus.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

US jobless claims came in marginally below expectations at 207,000 versus 213,000, pointing to the labor market withstanding current geopolitical and inflation pressures.

These followed a new record for the S&P 500, which crossed 7,000 points for the first time in history after Bitcoin hit two-month highs.

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Commenting, trading resource Mosaic Asset Company noted that the S&P had advanced by nearly 11% in the past 11 trading sessions.

“It ranks as the fifth quickest recovery to record highs following a deep pullback,” it wrote in its latest “Mosaic Chart Alerts” update. 

“The S&P closed firmly above the 7,000 level for the first time in history despite the ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East that sparked a 9% drawdown in the index into late March.”

S&P 500 one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Gold dipped to intraday lows and WTI crude oil eyed $94 per barrel as markets awaited further cues over the US-Iran war.

QCP, meanwhile, warned that seasonal trends could still end the stock rally as the US entered midterm elections. The S&P 500, it noted, “tends to find its peak about now ahead of mid-term elections, and then recovering during the final quarter of the year.”

“I would not base any investment decision or outlook based on seasonals alone, which is why I’m also watching confirmation from breadth,” it cautioned.

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S&P 500 seasonality data. Source: Mosaic Asset Company

Trader sees “opportunity” in Bitcoin versus Nasdaq

With BTC price action finding resistance near its range highs, market participants eyed exchange order-book liquidity for clues as to where the next showdown could come.

Related: Bitcoin can grow ‘probably a lot bigger’ than $30T+ gold market — Analysis

“The price bucket at $72.2K – 72.4K has a large amount of open interest that has slowly accumulated,” Shubh Varma, CEO of crypto data platform Hyblock, told Cointelegraph on the day.

“We’ve seen this level where traders are often active, entering and exiting. Most recently, about $100 million longs and shorts opened here, bringing the total close to $400 million at that price bucket, over the last seven days (on Binance stablecoin perps).”

Varma added that this could form “an area to watch as potential support if price revisits it, as many of these longs and shorts may exit at breakeven ‘psychological’ level.”

BTC/USDT perpetual contract open interest data. Source: Hyblock

Continuing the stocks theme, crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe flagged Bitcoin’s relationship with the Nasdaq-100 index as a cause for optimism going forward.

“Bitcoin is about to follow Nasdaq,” he told X followers. 

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“The reason for this is quite simple: the correlation has been significantly strong most of the time. This period? The weakest correlation in the past 10 years.”

BTC/USD vs. Nasdaq 100 futures one-week chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

Van de Poppe eyed a “tremendous opportunity” for Bitcoin buyers, having recently seen a similar bullish setup in Bitcoin versus gold.