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Weak Data Weigh on the Dollar: Market Awaits Trend Confirmation

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Weak Data Weigh on the Dollar: Market Awaits Trend Confirmation

The US dollar is retreating from recent highs, moving into a moderate correction after a prolonged period of gains. Pressure on the currency is building amid weaker-than-expected macroeconomic data, while market participants adopt a wait-and-see approach ahead of key labour market releases, including the ADP report.

The current dynamics reflect a gradual cooling in expectations regarding the resilience of the US economy. Recently published indicators point to a slowdown in business activity and easing labour market tightness, reducing support for the dollar after it reached local highs. At the same time, upcoming releases remain a key factor that could either reinforce the corrective move or restore demand for the US currency.

Among the published figures, investors focused on mixed US macro data. The Chicago PMI fell to 52.8 versus expectations of 54.8, signalling a slowdown in the manufacturing sector. In addition, JOLTS job openings came in below forecasts (6.882 million vs 7.240 million), indicating a gradual cooling in the labour market. Further pressure came from regional business activity indices, including data from the Dallas Fed, which reinforced doubts about the sustainability of the current economic momentum.

USD/JPY

After reaching fresh yearly highs and testing the psychological 160.00 level, USD/JPY has moved lower, forming a corrective pullback. Technical analysis suggests a potential decline towards the 157.50–158.00 area, as a dark cloud cover pattern has formed on the daily timeframe.

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If the price consolidates above the 159.40–159.80 range, the bearish correction scenario may be invalidated.

Key events for USD/JPY:

  • today at 15:15 (GMT+3): US ADP non-farm employment change
  • today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US core retail sales
  • today at 16:45 (GMT+3): US manufacturing PMI

USD/CAD

USD/CAD is also showing a pullback from local highs following a strong rally. The formation of an Evening Star pattern near the 1.3930 level indicates a slowdown in bullish momentum and the potential for a correction towards 1.3860–1.3880.

At the same time, a move above 1.3970 could support a resumption of the uptrend and the formation of a new bullish impulse.

Key events for USD/CAD:

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  • today at 16:30 (GMT+3): Canada manufacturing PMI
  • today at 17:30 (GMT+3): US crude oil inventories
  • today at 18:30 (GMT+3): Atlanta Fed GDPNow indicator

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Crypto World

Franklin Templeton launches crypto division with 250 Digital acquisition

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Franklin Templeton launches crypto division with 250 Digital acquisition

Wall Street asset management giant Franklin Templeton is launching a dedicated cryptocurrency division as it deepens its push into digital assets, anchored by a planned acquisition of crypto investment firm 250 Digital.

The new unit, called Franklin Crypto, will bring together the 250 Digital team and its liquid crypto strategies — previously managed by CoinFund — under one structure aimed at institutional investors, the firm said Wednesday.

Former CoinFund executive Christopher Perkins will lead the division, with Seth Ginns serving as chief investment officer alongside Franklin Templeton digital assets executive Tony Pecore. The group will report to Sandy Kaul, the firm’s head of innovation.

The move builds on Franklin Templeton’s existing digital asset business, which manages about $1.8 billion, and signals a shift toward offering more active crypto investment strategies alongside its current products.

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“This is an exciting addition for Franklin Templeton,” CEO Jenny Johnson said, adding that the deal strengthens the firm’s ability to deliver dedicated crypto expertise to clients globally.

The launch of Franklin Crypto reflects a broader trend among large asset managers that are moving beyond passive exposure, such as exchange-traded funds, toward building in-house capabilities.

Perkins said the effort is aimed at meeting that demand. “Crypto’s institutional moment has arrived,” he said, pointing to growing interest from large investors seeking structured exposure to digital assets.

The transaction also includes an experimental element: part of the consideration will be paid using BENJI tokens, linked to Franklin Templeton’s on-chain U.S. Government Money Fund. The fund uses blockchain infrastructure to process transactions and record ownership.

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That approach suggests early steps toward conducting mergers and acquisitions using tokenized assets, with settlement occurring more directly on blockchain rails.

The acquisition is expected to close in the second quarter of 2026, subject to approvals and other conditions. Financial terms were not disclosed.

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Avalanche (AVAX) gains 4% as index moves higher

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9am CoinDesk 20 Update for 2026-04-01: vertical

CoinDesk Indices presents its daily market update, highlighting the performance of leaders and laggards in the CoinDesk 20 Index.

The CoinDesk 20 is currently trading at 1968.28, up 1.0% (+20.29) since yesterday’s close.

Eighteen of 20 assets is trading higher.

9am CoinDesk 20 Update for 2026-04-01: vertical

Leaders: AVAX (+4.0%) and HBAR (+3.6%).

Laggards: BCH (-2.1%) and BNB (+0.0%).

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The CoinDesk 20 is a broad-based index traded on multiple platforms in several regions globally.

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Bitcoin Breaks 5-Month Losing Streak With $68K March Close: What’s Next?

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Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, BTC Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) closed March in green, ending the longest monthly losing streak since 2018. Data suggests that the coming months may prove to be profitable for BTC.

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin ended March 2% higher, marking the first green monthly close in six months.

  • A similar streak in 2018/2019 led to an over 316% BTC price rebound over five months.

  • Bitcoin price faces stiff resistance at $70,000-$72,000, where key trend lines converge.

Past multi-month downtrends were followed by 300% price gains

Historical price data from CoinGlass confirms Bitcoin printed its first green monthly candle in six months, closing March 2% higher after five straight months of losses.

“This is a massive dose of hopium,” analyst Ash Crypto said in an X post on Wednesday.

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The analyst was referring to a possible shift in momentum, which might lead to a sustained recovery, as seen in previous cycles.

Related: Crypto Fear & Greed Index stuck on ‘extreme fear,’ but is there a silver lining?

The last time this happened was in 2018/2019 when BTC closed February 2019 in green, after six consecutive red months, as shown in the figure below.

This led to a reversal with over 300% returns the following five months, as Bitcoin recovered from the 2018 bear market.

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“Last time BTC dumped 6 months in a row, it pumped the following 5 months in a row that came after!” trader Satoshi Flipper said in a Wednesday post on X.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, BTC Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
Bitcoin monthly percentage returns. Source: CoinGlass

If history repeats itself, the reversal may continue in April, suggesting that BTC price may have bottomed at $60,000.

Bitcoin’s bullish monthly close is a ”catalyst for fresh inflows into early April,” Trader Caleb said, adding:

“April starts with momentum.”

Bitcoin has a well-established tendency for significant price swings in April.

Since 2013, April has been a green month for eight of the past 13 years, with average returns of about 12.2%

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However, Bitcoin also tends to move in the opposite direction to March in April, and this is true for nine out of the past 13 years. 

In recent years, Bitcoin dropped in April after closing March in green, three out of four times between 2021 and 2024. 

Therefore, while the end of past multi-month drawdowns suggests a rebound is due, data demonstrates that BTC price could also slide in April.

Watch these Bitcoin price levels next

Data from TradingView shows BTC price up 2.5% on the day to trade at $68,470 as the $69,000-$70,000 resistance remains in place.

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Analysts expect Bitcoin’s range-bound price action to continue for longer, with important price levels to look for in case of a breakout. 

These include the $70,000-$72,000 supply zone, coinciding with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the 1w–1m cohort cost basis

This is also where investors acquired approximately 650,000 BTC, marking a potential point of sell pressure, according to the cost-basis distribution data from Glassnode.

Breaking above this level could see BTC/USD revisit the $76,000 range high and eventually the $80,000 psychological level.

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BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Zooming out, trader Sheldon Diedericks said Bitcoin could “push into resistance” at $83,000 on the monthly time frame, a key support level from April 2025. The 200-day EMA is also close to this area.

BTC/USD monthly chart. Source: X/Sheldon Diedericks

On the downside, the 200-week EMA at $68,300 and the 200-week SMA at $59,400 remain key levels to watch. Below that, the next major level is Bitcoin’s realized price around $54,000.

As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s bear market bottom could be formed once BTC price drops toward or below its realized price.