Bitcoin is moving through what some analysts describe as a “textbook” bear-market bottom, as speculation cools and short-term holders begin taking profits during a rebound toward $65,000. The debate now centers on whether this phase represents a durable transition—or a pause before another round of capitulation.

Much of the optimism in the current narrative comes from onchain and long-horizon price indicators, paired with short-term holder behavior. Still, onchain analytics provider CryptoQuant has cautioned that the market may need to see deeper stress from short-term investors before the bottom fully confirms.

Key takeaways

• Quant analyst “Frank” argues multiple bottom signals are flashing and that the current phase will look “obvious in hindsight.”
• He points to a shift in short-term holder spent output profit ratio (STH-SOPR), which he reads as profit-taking by short-term holders rather than indiscriminate loss selling.
• Comparisons cited include prior reversal zones seen in 2022 and the March 2020 COVID crash, using a framework tied to the 200-week SMA.
• CryptoQuant warns STH-SOPR may still need to fall further to reach the deeper “capitulation” levels seen in earlier local bottoms.

Why some analysts call this a “textbook” bottom

In recent posts on X, the Bitcoin quant account known as Frank—named after economist Frank A. Fetter—said Bitcoin’s current action resembles past macro bottom patterns. According to Frank, the set of “bottom signals” is either already present or in the process of forming, and should become unmistakable once the market moves away from the current range.

In the analysis, Frank highlighted a chart built around the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) for the BTC/USD market. The chart overlays quantile bands, with the focus on a specific area tied to prior reversal behavior.

Franks’ framework emphasizes the “ninth quantile,” a region that previously coincided with major reversal points at the bottom of the 2022 bear market and during the March 2020 crash. He argues that BTC has returned to a similar reversal zone, which—based on historical repetition—suggests a late-stage bottoming process may be underway.

While such historical patterning can be informative, it is not a guarantee. Quantile-based reversal zones are descriptive, not deterministic; investors typically use them to frame risk rather than to declare certainty.

Short-term holders start selling in profit, not panic

The more behavior-focused part of the current bullish case centers on short-term holders (STHs)—wallets holding Bitcoin for up to six months without selling. Frank singled out the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) for this cohort, a metric that tracks whether the coins moving on-chain are in profit or loss relative to their holders’ cost basis.

In Frank’s interpretation, STH-SOPR turning “green” indicates that short-term holders are realizing profits as they spend coins. He connected this to a broader market characteristic: markets in earlier recovery phases tend to treat short-term holders more constructively, without immediately forcing widespread loss selling.

“The market treating short-term holders well is a characteristic of a bull market.”

This distinction matters for traders because it can signal that the rebound is supported by changing incentives. Profit-taking during a recovery phase is different from capitulation, where selling pressure is often driven by traders exiting at large losses.

Even so, short-term holder behavior can flip quickly if price fails to hold recent gains. Investors should watch whether the STH-SOPR improvement persists or reverses as conditions change.

Where the bullish case may be incomplete

Although the “bottom” narrative is gaining traction, there are reasons to remain cautious. In particular, CryptoQuant—through contributor Trader Germini—has argued that STH-SOPR may need to reach deeper values before a strong capitulation signal is present.

As reported by CryptoQuant, in stronger bottoming zones STH-SOPR often falls much deeper as short-term holders capitulate and sell at large losses. The contributor compared the current reading with earlier local bottom conditions, noting that the present level has not yet approached the deeper capitulation area seen around 0.93 in prior local bottom zones.

“This means the market has cooled down, but it has not yet shown a strong short-term holder capitulation signal.”

In practical terms, that creates a tension inside the current debate. Frank’s view suggests the market is already shifting because STHs are spending in profit. CryptoQuant’s counterpoint is that profit-taking can occur before the most intense selling pressure—meaning “cooling down” may precede the final stress event rather than replace it.

For investors, the key is not just whether STH-SOPR turns favorable, but how far it moves and whether it does so in tandem with broader market stabilization.

What to watch next as Bitcoin tests the transition

The near-term market question is whether Bitcoin can consolidate and build upon the recovery while onchain conditions confirm a durable shift. If the bullish scenario is correct, short-term holder metrics should remain supportive and price action should hold the improved behavior described by STH-SOPR. If CryptoQuant’s caution is right, additional downside pressure could still arrive—potentially driving STH-SOPR further toward historical capitulation ranges.

Readers should monitor the next rounds of onchain updates around STH-SOPR, alongside BTC’s ability to sustain gains after failing or retesting recent levels. The “textbook” framing may still prove useful—but the market’s final confirmation will likely hinge on whether short-term holders ultimately reach the kind of capitulation depth seen in previous bottoms.

Adam Back’s Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company (BSTR), the bitcoin treasury company backed by the Blockstream CEO and bitcoin pioneer, is renegotiating the terms of its planned public listing through a merger with Cantor Equity Partners I (CEPO), with the parties abandoning the original structure agreed last year in an effort to better reflect current market conditions.

The companies said Wednesday they will not complete the transaction under the terms of the July 2025 business combination agreement. Instead, they are discussing a revised structure, with further details expected in future filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

As part of the changes, the previously announced private placement financing tied to the merger will no longer be required to close. CEPO also indefinitely postponed its shareholder meeting, which had been scheduled for July 10. Any redemption requests submitted by CEPO shareholders will be cancelled and shares returned, with no action required from investors.

The announcement follows a series of delays. In June, CEPO postponed its shareholder meeting to allow additional time and extend the redemption deadline. The meeting was subsequently pushed back to July 10 before being postponed indefinitely.

BNB Chain has already lifted performance on BNB Smart Chain. During the first half of 2026, block times fell to 450 milliseconds from 750, while benchmark throughput rose to about 5,200 transactions per second from roughly 2,800.

David Z, BNB Chain’s chief technical officer, told CoinDesk the next phase focuses on execution rather than consensus.

“All smart contracts today need optimization directly at the execution layer,” he said. “The chains got fast at consensus and storage, but the execution engine itself still works like it’s translating sentence by sentence.”

The new network will use execution-layer techniques such as just-in-time compilation, which compiles code as it runs, and strength reduction, which swaps expensive calculations for simpler ones.

The roadmap also reserves blockspace for services such as oracles, liquidations and cross-chain bridges, alongside native privacy, account abstraction, gas sponsorship, transaction batching, scheduled execution and passkey signing.

BNB Chain is separately researching quantum-resistant security. The team said it aims to let users adopt quantum-safe protection without changing wallet addresses or disrupting existing applications, work that remains at the research stage.

Bitcoin exchange Bull Bitcoin said Wednesday that it had petitioned France’s Council of State (Conseil d’État) to strike down a French decree implementing the European Union’s DAC8 crypto tax reporting rules.

DAC8 requires crypto service providers to collect users’ identity and transaction data and automatically report it to national tax authorities, which then exchange the information with their counterparts across EU member states. The directive went into effect on Jan. 1, 2026.

The exchange said in a Wednesday press release that DAC8 risks creating a “mass database” linking legal identity and home addresses, including transactions with no relevance to taxation.

“Against a backdrop of daily data leaks and a surge in kidnappings targeting crypto-asset holders, building such a database endangers the physical safety of millions of holders and their loved ones.”

Bull Bitcoin said it filed a summary petition before the Conseil d’État on Feb. 24, followed by a substantive legal brief outlining its arguments. The exchange said it intends to pursue “every legitimate avenue to suspend, delay, annul or amend the effects of DAC8 and its global counterpart, the CARF.” 

The Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF) is a global crypto tax reporting framework developed by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) that provides a common standard for jurisdictions to collect and exchange information on crypto transactions.

Related: French couple robbed of $1M in Bitcoin by criminals posing as police

Bull Bitcoin warns DAC8 leak could expose crypto holders

Under DAC8, crypto service providers must submit their first reports covering the 2026 calendar year by Sept. 30, 2027, after which tax authorities in EU member states will automatically exchange the information.

France implemented DAC8’s crypto reporting rules through Decree No. 2025-1276, signed Dec. 19, 2025.

France has emerged as one of the countries most affected by so-called wrench attacks, in which victims are threatened or assaulted to force the transfer of digital assets. In April, RTL reported that French police had counted 41 crypto-related kidnappings since the start of 2026.

Wrench attacks increased by 75% in 2025 to 72 verified cases worldwide, according to cybersecurity company CertiK. France saw the most incidents during 2025, with 19 confirmed wrench attacks, while Europe accounted for roughly 40% of global incidents. 

Bull Bitcoin’s warning also comes after major crypto firms have suffered customer data breaches. In May 2025, Coinbase said that less than 1% of its transacting monthly users were affected in an attack that may cost the exchange up to $400 million in reimbursement expenses.

Magazine: From Bitcoin critics to blockchain believers: The 5 biggest crypto backflips

• Nexo Card launches in Argentina with debit and credit modes for crypto users.
• Andres Ondarra will lead Nexo Argentina as General Manager from August 1.
• Buenos Aires is being positioned as Nexo’s regional hub for Latin America.

Nexo has launched its crypto debit-and-credit card in Argentina, marking a deeper push into one of Latin America’s most active digital-asset markets and placing Buenos Aires at the centre of its regional expansion strategy.

The launch comes alongside a leadership change, with Andres Ondarra appointed General Manager of Nexo Argentina.

The company said the two developments mark the next stage of its growth in the country, where digital assets have become a mainstream part of wealth management for many users.

Nexo described Argentina as a market where crypto adoption runs deeper than almost anywhere else, citing the highest share of digital-asset adoption among markets surveyed.

The company also said Argentina processed approximately $93.9 billion in digital-asset transactions over three years, ranking second in Latin America behind Brazil.

Nexo Card brings spending and borrowing utility

The Nexo Card allows clients in Argentina to use digital assets in two ways. In debit mode, users can spend their holdings directly. In credit mode, they can borrow against those assets as collateral without selling them.

The company said clients can switch between both modes through a single interface, giving users more flexibility in how they manage and use their crypto wealth.

New clients are being offered 10% back on their first swipe.

They can also receive additional cashback and milestone rewards worth up to USD 450 in total during their first three months. Nexo said users can earn up to 13% annual interest on idle in-app balances, paid daily.

The card has previously been recognised by the Digital Banker Awards, the FinTech Breakthrough Awards, and the PAY360 Awards.

“Argentine clients have spent a decade making digital assets part of how they manage wealth. The Nexo Card is built precisely for that — letting them spend in debit mode, borrow against their holdings in credit mode, and earn from every transaction, all without having to sell. It’s the freedom to live on that wealth, not just hold it,” said Andres Ondarra, incoming General Manager, Nexo Argentina.

For Nexo, the product launch is aimed at the next phase of crypto usage in Argentina.

With capital already moved into digital assets, the company is focusing on everyday utility: spending, borrowing and earning from holdings without requiring clients to sell them.

Eligible clients in Argentina can apply for the Nexo Card through the Nexo app and website.

Ondarra takes charge as Buenos Aires becomes regional hub

Ondarra will formally lead Nexo Argentina’s operations from August 1.

He brings more than 25 years of experience across traditional finance, fintech and crypto in Latin America, including a background in Wall Street investment banking.

His appointment comes as Nexo positions Buenos Aires as its regional hub for Latin America.

The company said it is investing in local infrastructure, sports partnerships, including the AFA, and a local team to support clients across the region.

Ondarra succeeds Federico Ogue, who led Nexo’s expansion in Argentina and is now moving to a new entrepreneurial venture.

“Argentina has one of the most sophisticated crypto and fintech ecosystems in the region, and the work Nexo has done here is something to be proud of. I look forward to passing the baton to Andres, who brings exactly the experience and vision to lead Nexo’s next stage of growth in Argentina,” said Ogue.

SpaceX (SPCX) apparently moved bitcoin BTC$61,803.35 across its wallets early Wednesday for the first time in about six months in three transfers totaling less than $300 of its $1.16 billion holding that don’t signal any impending sales.

Data from Arkham Intelligence shows the largest transfer across addresses tagged as belonging to the company moved 0.00213 BTC, about $135, between two wallets. A second sent 0.00139 BTC, or about $89.

In the third, Coinbase Prime’s custody service topped up a SpaceX address with 0.000738 BTC, around $47, the kind of small amount an exchange sends to cover network fees before a larger transaction can go through.

SpaceX went public on June 12 in the largest IPO on record, and its filing put the company’s full bitcoin position on a public balance sheet for the first time. Small movements can draw attention after a share listing even though none of the coins reached an exchange deposit address and none left SpaceX’s control.

The company still holds 18,712 BTC. Transfers this size are usually routine maintenance: funding a wallet to pay fees, consolidating coins across addresses or testing a signing setup before moving a real balance.

India’s tax department reportedly found widespread gaps in crypto tax reporting, warning that offshore exchanges, private wallets and peer-to-peer (P2P) trades are making crypto activity harder to track. 

Reuters on Wednesday reported government documents showed that fewer than a quarter of 645,000 individuals who made crypto transactions in the year ending in March 2023 reported the trades on their tax returns. The department also reportedly estimated that India had about 39 million crypto traders holding over $2.1 billion in crypto at the end of May. 

The findings add a tax-enforcement factor to the country’s long-running digital asset policy debate, moving the issue beyond the central bank’s financial-stability concerns and into questions on offshore trading and recoverable tax revenue. India was ranked first in Chainalysis’ 2025 Global Crypto Adoption Index.

The report comes days after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) backed a containment strategy for crypto assets. On July 3, the central bank urged lawmakers to keep banks and financial institutions insulated from cryptocurrencies and privately issued stablecoins. The RBI reportedly said prohibition remained a recognized policy option and recommended preventing digital asset use in payments and settlements. 

Cointelegraph sought comment from India’s Central Board of Direct Taxes but had not received a response by publication.

Crypto tax enforcement remains a global challenge

India is not the only jurisdiction struggling to bring crypto activity into the tax net. In Israel, a voluntary disclosure program aimed at crypto profits fell short of expectations, according to a June 3 report by local business outlet Globes. 

The Israel Tax Authority (ITA) reportedly expected to collect 2 billion to 3 billion Israeli shekels (about $650 million to $986 million) from the process, which offered criminal immunity to taxpayers who would disclose previously hidden capital. 

Related: Petition to scrap South Korea’s crypto tax reaches 50K threshold

Despite this, only 289 disclosure requests had been submitted since the program was launched in August 2025, with reported capital totaling 676.5 million shekels and estimated tax due of 40.9 million shekels. The figure was a sharp miss compared with the expectations and with the estimated crypto tax gap. 

Globes cited tax experts who said the program’s lack of an anonymous disclosure track had weakened the incentive for crypto holders to come forward.

Magazine: Has Bitcoin bottomed for this cycle? Analysts say ‘not yet’

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Key Highlights

• MasTec (MTZ) is purchasing electrical contracting firm The Superior Group in a $1.65 billion transaction
• Transaction terms include $1.175 billion cash plus $475 million in MTZ shares, with additional earnout provisions
• Superior anticipates generating between $1.6 billion and $1.7 billion in revenue throughout 2026
• Shares of MTZ declined 5.72% in response to the acquisition news
• Investment firm Mizuho increased MTZ price target to $502 while keeping Outperform status

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On July 7, 2026, MasTec (MTZ) unveiled plans to acquire The Superior Group, an electrical contracting company based in Ohio, for roughly $1.65 billion.

Following the announcement, shares tumbled 5.72%, dropping $21.78 to close at $358.85.

MasTec, Inc., MTZ

The transaction structure includes $1.175 billion in cash payments and $475 million worth of MasTec shares. Additionally, an earnout component based on Superior’s performance metrics over the following 36 months has been incorporated.

Based on Superior’s projected 2026 adjusted EBITDA, the acquisition represents approximately 6.9 times that figure.

Operating from Columbus, Ohio, Superior maintains a workforce of approximately 3,000 employees. As an IBEW-signatory electrical contractor, the firm delivers comprehensive solutions spanning design, construction, engineering, prefabrication capabilities, and project oversight.

The company’s revenue stream is heavily concentrated in the data center sector, representing about 90% of operations, with hyperscale clients accounting for roughly 70% of business.

For calendar year 2026, Superior forecasts revenue ranging from $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion, alongside adjusted EBITDA between $225 million and $250 million. MasTec anticipates Superior will generate $2.2 billion to $2.5 billion in revenue during 2027.

Through the balance of 2026, Superior is positioned to contribute $800 million to $900 million in revenue and $100 million to $115 million in adjusted EBITDA to MasTec’s financial performance.

Superior brings a substantial $1.4 billion project backlog and maintains a 300,000-square-foot prefabrication center — strategic assets that enhance MasTec’s operational capabilities.

Integration Into MasTec’s Power Delivery Division

The acquisition will establish Superior as a distinct group within MasTec, functioning under the Power Delivery segment umbrella. This segment’s profit margins are projected to expand into the low double-digit range from the current level of approximately 9%.

Bryan Stewart, who currently serves as Superior’s Chairman and CEO, will continue in leadership alongside the company’s existing executive team.

To finance the cash component, MasTec will utilize available cash reserves, its current credit line, and two delayed draw term loan facilities arranged in conjunction with the transaction.

The transaction is anticipated to finalize in mid-to-late July 2026, subject to antitrust regulatory clearance.

Wall Street Response

Mizuho elevated its MTZ price objective to $502 from the previous $498 target following the deal announcement, maintaining its Outperform recommendation. The investment bank observed that this acquisition completes the data center strategy MasTec presented during its May 12 analyst presentation.

Several other Wall Street firms had already adjusted their targets upward prior to this transaction. KeyBanc established a $500 target with an Overweight stance. Stifel upgraded its objective to $455, while TD Cowen advanced its target to $445 from $320. Jefferies currently maintains a $493 price target.

During Q1 2026, MasTec disclosed a 28% year-over-year expansion in backlog, with new contract awards climbing 18% compared to the prior-year period. The company’s backlog reached a record $20.3 billion as of the end of March.

MasTec conducted a conference call on Wednesday at 9:00 a.m. ET to provide details on the acquisition. Lazard served as financial advisor to MasTec in the transaction; UBS represented Superior.