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What Is the Most Probable Next Move for BTC as Momentum Stays Weak?

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What Is the Most Probable Next Move for BTC as Momentum Stays Weak?

Bitcoin is trading under sustained pressure after losing key higher-timeframe support levels, with the price structure showing a clear transition from distribution to a developing downtrend. Momentum remains weak, and recent rebounds appear corrective rather than impulsive, keeping downside risk elevated in the near term.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, the asset continues to respect a descending channel while trading below major moving averages, confirming bearish market structure. The rejection from the mid-range resistance zone and subsequent sharp sell-off toward the low-$60K region reinforces that sellers still control trend direction.

Momentum indicators remain subdued, with RSI holding far below neutral and failing to produce strong bullish divergence. Unless the price can reclaim the $75K–$80K resistance cluster and close above the channel midpoint, the broader bias stays tilted toward continuation lower or prolonged consolidation near the $60K support level.

BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour chart shows a steep impulsive drop followed by choppy sideways movement, typical of a bear-flag or accumulation attempt after liquidation. Lower highs continue to form beneath descending dynamic resistance, signaling that buyers have not yet regained short-term control.

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Key support sits around the recent wick low near the $60K area, while immediate resistance is clustered between roughly $73K and $76K. A breakout above this range would be the first technical signal of a momentum shift, whereas a breakdown below the mentioned support zone could accelerate another leg downward and lead to another round of massive liquidations.

Sentiment Analysis

Funding rate data shows sentiment cooling significantly compared to earlier overheated conditions, with the recent deeply negative prints suggesting reduced long-side leverage. This type of reset is constructive over the medium term but does not, by itself, confirm an immediate bullish reversal.

Overall market psychology appears cautious rather than euphoric, which often precedes range formation before the next major move. For sentiment to flip decisively bullish, price strength must return alongside rising but controlled funding and improving momentum across timeframes.

 

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Ethereum Price Eyes Recovery as 4-Week ETF Streak Ends

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Ethereum ETFs

Ethereum has finally broken a four-week streak of continuous ETF outflows. The week ending February 18 recorded inflows, marking the first sign of returning institutional demand. At the same time, whale wallets have started accumulating again. Yet long-term holders continue selling into every Ethereum price bounce.

This creates a direct conflict that could decide whether Ethereum’s price recovery continues or stalls.

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ETF Outflow Streak Ends as Whale Accumulation Begins

Ethereum spent four straight weeks under consistent institutional selling pressure. Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net outflows in the weeks ending January 23, January 30, February 6, and February 13. This sustained selling reflected weak institutional confidence and coincided with Ethereum’s broader price decline.

That trend has now changed. The week ending February 18 saw a net inflow of $6.80 million. This shift suggests institutional selling pressure has paused, at least temporarily. When ETF flows turn positive after extended outflows, it often signals early stages of stabilization. However, the inflow figures are still weak and not at par with the outflow strength, yet.

Ethereum ETFs
Ethereum ETFs: SoSo Value

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

At the same time, whale accumulation has returned. Data shows wallets holding large amounts of Ethereum increased their holdings from 113.50 million ETH on February 15 to 113.63 million ETH currently. This represents an increase of 130,000 ETH. At the current price, this equals roughly $253 million worth of Ethereum accumulated in just a few days.

Ethereum Whales
Ethereum Whales: Santiment

Whale accumulation during weakness is important because large investors often position early before broader recoveries begin. However, this growing optimism faces resistance from another group of investors.

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Ethereum Price Flashes Bullish Divergence, But Long-Term Holders Continue Selling

Ethereum’s 8-hour chart shows a key momentum signal that has historically preceded price bounces.

Between February 2 and February 18, Ethereum’s price formed a lower low. This means the price dropped below its previous support level. But during the same period, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) formed a higher low. The RSI measures buying and selling strength and this pattern is called bullish divergence.

This signal has already proven effective twice earlier this month. The first bullish divergence formed between February 2 and February 11. Ethereum’s price then rallied 11%. The second divergence appeared between February 2 and February 15. This led to another 6% recovery.

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Bullish Divergence Spotted
Bullish Divergence Spotted: TradingView

Both these ETH bounces happened while ETF outflows were still ongoing, showing that buyers were already attempting to regain control. Now, ETF inflows have returned, and whales are accumulating. This increases the probability that another bounce attempt could happen.

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However, long-term holders are moving in the opposite direction. The Hodler Net Position Change measures whether long-term holders are accumulating or selling. A negative value means long-term holders are distributing their holdings.

On February 17, long-term holders sold 34,841 ETH over the rolling 30-day period. By February 18, that number increased to 38,877 ETH. This represents a sharp increase in selling pressure in just one day, even as bullish divergence signals appeared.

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Holders Keep Selling
Holders Keep Selling: Glassnode

This shows long-term holders are using price strength to exit positions. The same behavior was visible during earlier February rallies. Both previous bounces failed to sustain upward momentum because long-term holder selling capped the recovery.

This creates a clear conflict. Whale accumulation and ETF inflows support recovery, while long-term holder selling limits upside potential, hinting at a clear risk. This conflict is now reflected directly in Ethereum’s price structure.

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Triangle Pattern Reveals Critical Levels

Ethereum is currently trading inside a symmetrical triangle pattern on the 8-hour chart. This pattern forms when the price moves between converging support and resistance lines.

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A symmetrical triangle represents balance between buyers and sellers. In Ethereum’s case, buyers include whales and institutional investors returning through ETF inflows. Sellers include long-term holders distributing their positions.

This balance explains why Ethereum remains stuck in consolidation.

The first key resistance level sits near $2,030. This level stopped the previous recovery attempt. A successful move above this level would signal strengthening momentum and also confirm the triangle breakout. The next major resistance stands at $2,100, another bounce blocker. Breaking this level would confirm a stronger recovery and could open the path higher.

Ethereum Price Analysis
Ethereum Price Analysis: TradingView

However, downside risks remain. Immediate reclaim level sits at $1,960. Failure to hold this level could push Ethereum down to $1,890. A deeper decline could extend toward $1,740 if selling pressure accelerates.

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Canary and Grayscale Launch Sui ETFs With Staking Rewards in the US

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Canary and Grayscale Launch Sui ETFs With Staking Rewards in the US

Sui crypto just stepped into the big boys area.

the first SUI ETFs are now live in the US, Canary Capital and Grayscale both launched products today. And they come with staking yield baked in.

Key Takeaways

  • Canary Capital’s SUIS is actively trading on the Nasdaq, while Grayscale’s GSUI launched on the NYSE after converting from a trust.
  • Both funds offer staking rewards, a first-of-its-kind feature for US spot crypto ETFs that allows investors to capture network yield.
  • The listings arrive as SUI trades near $0.95, down roughly 40% over the last 30 days amidst broader altcoin market capitulation.

Why Sui Crypto ETFs With Staking Matter

While spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have attracted over $140 billion in inflows, they notably lack staking mechanisms due to initial regulatory hurdles.

The new SUI ETFs from Canary and Grayscale actually can stake the tokens. They tap into Sui delegated proof of stake system and earn rewards. That yield can help offset the usual management fees.

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For institutions, that is a big deal. They do not just want price exposure. They want income too.

Source: SUI DEX Volume / DefiLlama

Demand for smarter products is rising rapidly. However, the SUI chain itself has been in decline over the past couple of months. We’re now in mid-January, and DEX volume is at $3B. It may outperform this January, but it is still lower than last year’s numbers.

Breaking Down the ETF Structure

Canary Capital’s ETF is live on Nasdaq under SUIS. It sits under the 1940 Act, which means tighter oversight.

That usually attracts the more cautious money. CEO Steven McClurg made it clear. Investors get direct access to net staking rewards.

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At the same time, Grayscale flipped its old Sui trust into an ETF called GSUI on the NYSE. The fee is 0.35%, waived for the first three months or until assets hit $1B.

And here is the kicker. 100% of the tokens were staked at launch. Classic Grayscale move. Turn legacy trusts into spot ETFs and scale fast.

Discover: Here are the crypto likely to explode!

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Dash Integrates Zcash Privacy Pool As the Privacy Narrative Heats Up

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Cryptocurrencies, Privacy, Dash, Zcash

Dash, a layer-1 blockchain protocol with privacy-preserving features, announced on Thursday the integration of Zcash’s “Orchard” shielded pool into the Dash Evolution chain, a secondary layer on the L1 network that supports smart contract functionality.

The integration will go live following the completion of cybersecurity audits and is expected to launch in March, according to an announcement shared with Cointelegraph.

Initially, the integration will support basic transfers of Zcash (ZEC) from one party to another on the Evolution chain, with subsequent upgrades adding Orchard’s privacy features for tokenized real-world assets (RWAs), the announcement said.

The price of the DASH (DASH), the native token of the network, surged by over 125% in January. Dash briefly reached a local high of about $96 on the Binance crypto exchange before retracing to current levels.

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Cryptocurrencies, Privacy, Dash, Zcash
Dash’s price action shows two large spikes in 2025 and 2026, fueled by the growth of the privacy narrative. Source: TradingView

Onchain privacy protocols and privacy blockchain tokens gained significant momentum in 2025 and early 2026, with proponents of the technology framing it as a response to increased financial surveillance from governments and corporations.

Related: Starknet taps EY Nightfall to bring institutional privacy to Ethereum rails

Lack of privacy is holding back crypto payments, while the tech comes under fire

“Lack of Privacy may be the missing link for crypto payments adoption,” according to Changpeng Zhao (CZ), the co-founder of the Binance cryptocurrency exchange.

Businesses will not adopt blockchain technology unless privacy-preserving tools can shield payments, which contain sensitive information about employee compensation, CZ said.