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What next as majors surge 10% to recover war-driven losses

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What next as majors surge 10% to recover war-driven losses

Crypto markets snapped back hard on Sunday after spending Saturday pricing in what looked like the start of a prolonged regional war.

Bitcoin climbed to $66,843, up 5.2% over the past 24 hours, recovering most of the losses from Saturday’s slide below $64,000 after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran.

The bounce accelerated after Iranian state TV confirmed the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei, which markets interpreted as raising the odds of a shorter conflict.

Solana led the recovery among majors, surging 10.8% to $86.42. Ether rose 7.5% to reclaim $1,994, putting it back within touching distance of $2,000 for the first time since Thursday. Cardano added 6.7%, dogecoin gained 6.5%, XRP rose 5.6%, and BNB climbed 4.8%.

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The weekly picture is messier, however. Bitcoin is still down 1.6% over seven days, XRP has lost 2%, and dogecoin is off 2.5%. Solana and ether are the only majors that have clawed back into the green on the week, up 1.7% and 1.1% respectively.

The weekend volatility has been enormous but net movement has been small, which captures the broader story of a market whipsawing on global headlines without actually going anywhere.

The bounce looks convincing on a 24-hour chart but fragile in context. Saturday’s sell-off happened on thin weekend liquidity. Sunday’s rally happened on the same thin liquidity, just in the opposite direction.

The real test arrives in hours when equity futures, oil, and bond markets reopen and institutional capital has its first chance to react to Saturday’s events.

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The Polymarket’s ceasefire contract gives a 78% chance of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire by April 30 and 61% by March 31, as reported earlier Sunday.

If that pricing holds once traditional markets digest the weekend, the bounce has legs. However, if oil spikes and equities gap lower on the open, crypto’s Sunday optimism could get faded the same way Wednesday’s push to $70,000 was.

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Crypto World

Hyperliquid Emerges Winner Amid US Iran Geopolitcal Tensions

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Hyperliquid's HIP-3 Platform's Open Interest.

Hyperliquid emerged as a rare winner amid the sudden escalation of military hostilities in the Middle East between the US, Israel, and Iran.

This weekend, the exchange saw a surge in commodities-focused derivatives trading, with open interest for these assets reaching an all-time high of more than $1.1 billion.

Hyperliquid Rallies 13% as US and Iran Tensions Roil Markets

The uptrend can be attributed to traders seeking to hedge geopolitical risks while traditional financial markets were closed for the weekend.

As a result, market participants pivoted to the blockchain-based platform to trade synthetic perpetual futures contracts tied to oil, gold, silver, and US equities.

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This continuous trading was facilitated by HyperLiquid Improvement Proposal 3, or HIP-3, an upgrade implemented last year.

HIP-3 allows developers to deploy permissionless perpetual futures markets for any asset with a reliable public price feed, provided the creator stakes 500,000 of the platform’s native HYPE tokens.

Driven by the weekend volatility, HIP-3’s open interest eclipsed its previous record of $1.06 billion.

Hyperliquid's HIP-3 Platform's Open Interest.
Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 Platform’s Open Interest. Source: Flowscan

Overall, the broader Hyperliquid platform has accumulated nearly $5.5 billion in total open interest, securing an estimated $1.06 million in protocol earnings over a 24-hour period, according to data from DeFiLlama.

Additionally, data provider Messari reported that HIP-3 markets have generated $4.4 billion in weekend trading volume in February alone.

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The platform’s ability to capture traditional market volume drew the attention of prominent industry figures. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of the crypto exchange BitMEX, highlighted the structural shift on the social media platform X.

“Where price discovery happens when TradExchanges sleep…It’s the weekend, [stuff’s] going down, TradExchanges are closed, but Hyperliquid is open for business,” Hayes wrote.

However, the platform’s lack of compliance guardrails could introduce substantial legal hurdles in the future.

Offering synthetic US equities to retail investors without “know your customer” (KYC) protocols or a registered broker-dealer license poses significant regulatory risks.

These practices could draw future scrutiny from the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

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Despite this looming threat, the platform’s native token responded positively to the weekend influx.

BeInCrypto data show that HYPE’s price rose 13% over the last 24 hours, trading above $30 as of press time. Notably, this makes it the best-performing asset among the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.

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Tokenized Gold Dominates Weekend Price Discovery as CME Futures Close

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Tokenized Gold Dominates Weekend Price Discovery as CME Futures Close

Gold pricing shifts onto blockchain networks once US futures markets close for the weekend, according to Iggy Ioppe, former chief investment officer at Credit Suisse and now chief investment officer (CIO) at liquidity infrastructure firm Theo.

CME gold futures stop trading at 5:00 pm ET on Friday and reopen at 6:00 pm ET on Sunday. During that interval, regulated futures markets are inactive and most remaining activity occurs through private over-the-counter deals in Asia that are not publicly reported. As a result, tokenized gold assets such as PAX Gold (PAXG) and Tether Gold (XAUt) become the only continuously available trading venues.

“In terms of publicly visible price formation, onchain markets are responsible for virtually 100% of weekend price discovery,” Ioppe told Cointelegraph.

He added that when futures trading resumes, prices often align with movements that already occurred on blockchain markets. “We are seeing weekend moves reflected when CME reopens,” he said.

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Related: Bitcoin price slump versus gold’s gains highlights evolving crypto market

Tokenized gold market cap jumps to $4.4 billion

The shift comes amid rising trading volume for tokenized gold. As Cointelegraph reported, tokenized gold expanded rapidly over the past year, adding nearly $2.8 billion in value and growing from about $1.6 billion to $4.4 billion in market capitalization.

The sector’s market cap rose 177%, far outpacing the broader gold market and most major spot gold ETFs, while the number of holders nearly tripled with more than 115,000 new wallets. The growth represented roughly a quarter of all net inflows into the real-world asset (RWA) sector and exceeded the combined expansion of tokenized stocks, corporate bonds and non-US Treasurys.

Tokenized gold market cap rises. Source: Cex.io

Trading activity also surged, with tokenized gold recording about $178 billion in 2025 volume and peaking above $126 billion in the fourth quarter. That level would make it the second-largest gold investment product globally by trading volume after SPDR Gold Shares.

Ioppe said that market makers and cross-venue liquidity providers dominate participation, arbitraging price differences between digital and traditional markets. Crypto-native macro traders also play a major role, using tokenized gold not only for exposure to bullion prices but also for collateral, hedging and yield strategies during periods of geopolitical or macroeconomic uncertainty.

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“Some institutions are monitoring weekend onchain gold markets, particularly macro and cross-asset desks that track gap risk ahead of the CME reopen,” he said, noting that most institutions treat the signal as informational rather than a basis for active positioning.

Related: Middle East tensions boost gold as investors seek safe havens

24/7 tokenized gold trading lets investors manage risk

Tokenized gold markets allow for continuous trading, which offers a practical risk management advantage. If a geopolitical event occurs while futures markets are closed, traditional participants cannot adjust positions. Tokenized markets allow immediate rebalancing.

On Saturday, tokenized gold rallied as geopolitical tensions escalated following US and Israeli strikes on Iran, with investors moving into XAUT and PAXG while Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) fell. XAUT briefly climbed above $5,450 and PAXG neared $5,536 during the day before trimming gains, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

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PAXG surges on Saturday. Source: CoinMarketCap

However, Ioppe said adoption still faces obstacles. Liquidity remains smaller than in futures or exchange-traded funds (ETFs), making large trades harder to execute without moving prices. “Regulatory clarity is improving, but fragmentation across jurisdictions slows institutional deployment. Custody, accounting, and capital rules still vary widely,” he said.

For now, tokenized gold is expected to operate alongside traditional products rather than replace them. “The most likely near-term evolution is that of tokenized and traditional markets existing in parallel, each serving a different function,” Ioppe concluded.

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