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What next for bitcoin as BTC nears $68,000 on fresh US-Iran tensions

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What next for bitcoin as BTC nears $68,000 on fresh US-Iran tensions

Crypto prices firmed during Asia’s Friday morning session, with bitcoin climbing toward $68,000 after a choppy week that tested nerves across risk markets.

The bounce was broad. XRP, Solana’s SOL, and Cardano’s ADA added upto 2% while ether lagged with a small dip, hovering below $2,000 as traders treated the level as a line that needs defending rather than celebrating.

The move had the feel of a relief rally more than a clean turn. After weeks of sharp swings, the market has started reacting in waves. A quick push higher draws in dip buyers, then selling appears as soon as price reaches a level where trapped holders can exit with less pain. The difference this week is that each rebound has looked a little less fragile, suggesting forced selling is easing even if conviction buying has not returned in size.

Macro and geopolitics are doing their part to keep traders cautious. Gold steadied near $5,000 an ounce after two sessions of gains as investors priced rising Middle East risk.

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US President Donald Trump said Thursday he would allow 10 to 15 days for talks on a nuclear deal with Iran, while American forces reportedly built up in the region. That mix has supported haven demand and made it harder for risk assets to build momentum.

FxPro chief market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich framed the broader backdrop as bearish.. He said that given the market’s prior dynamics and the more cautious tone in US stocks, the odds increase of a retest of local lows, pointing to levels last seen in the second half of 2024.

On ether, he said the token is sitting on a long running support line that traces back to 2020 and lines up with the $2,000 area, but added that a true breakdown would need confirmation through a drop below recent lows around $1,500.

Under the surface, some indicators hint that big holders may be positioning to sell into strength. CryptoQuant says bitcoin inflows from large holders to Binance have reached record levels, a pattern that can precede heavier spot supply.

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Research shop K33 has compared current conditions to the later stages of the 2022 bear market that gave way to a long, grinding consolidation.

The result is a market that can bounce, but struggles to turn rebounds into a trend until spot demand grows louder than the sellers waiting at the next round number.

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What Is the PUNCH Meme Coin and Why Is It Surging?

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PUNCH Token Price Performance

PUNCH, a Solana-based meme coin, has surged more than 80,000% since its launch earlier this month, capturing traders’ attention across the ecosystem.

As its market cap expands and accumulation intensifies, concerns are also mounting. Amid the token’s explosive rally, analysts are highlighting red flags surrounding this new market entrant.

What Is PUNCH Token?

PUNCH is a token inspired by the story of a baby Japanese macaque named Punch and his inseparable plush companion. The token positions itself as a community-driven cryptocurrency built around emotion, comfort, and companionship.

According to details provided on the website, the token has a fixed total supply of 1 billion. The project states that its liquidity has been locked and burned. 

It also claims that ownership has been renounced. In addition, the token operates with a 0% tax.

“PUNCH is gearing up to be the MOODENG of 2026,” an analyst wrote.

Solana Meme Coin PUNCH Skyrockets to $30 Million Market Cap 

Data from GeckoTerminal showed that the token began trading earlier this month. Momentum accelerated as the story of the baby macaque gained traction across media outlets and social platforms. Over the past week alone, the meme coin has surged 22,290.8%.

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PUNCH Token Price Performance
PUNCH Token Price Performance. Source: GeckoTerminal

During early Asian trading hours today, PUNCH hit an all-time high, with its market cap climbing above $30 million. On CoinGecko, the token emerged as the top daily gainer, posting a 260% increase. It also ranks third among the platform’s top trending cryptocurrencies.

The rally has attracted substantial investor interest. Blockchain tracker Stalkchain highlighted one wallet that accumulated approximately $226,000 worth of PUNCH.

Data from Nansen also revealed that over the past seven days, public figure holdings in PUNCH surged 89.69%. However, smart money and whale holdings have declined.

PUNCH Token Public Figure Accumulation
PUNCH Token Public Figure Accumulation. Source: Nansen

Crypto Watchers Raise Red Flags Over PUNCH 

Several market watchers have raised concerns about the token. Crypto analyst StarPlatinum has alleged that the token shows “multiple signs of coordinated insider control.”

In a post on X, the analyst claimed that the creator wallet, identified as A8Z1ejQGk45EJibBPJviWnM3UvwKSuYun53nSCkWKM52, distributed approximately 100 billion PUNCH tokens, equivalent to 10% of the total supply, soon after the token went live. 

According to the analysis, the wallet (A8Z1e) sent 48.2 billion tokens directly to another wallet, CgR8tggfcM8Re5agDY5fsT4pKmqQTzF8vQ7jQknM6iBj. This entity allegedly acted as an intermediary between the creator and several large holders.

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Blockchain traces shared in the thread suggest a flow pattern from the creator wallet to the intermediary address, then to large wallets. Among the top linked holders identified:

  • Wallet Hbx5PturLVp9F7YYG18jZZSWFTNp9TTSXEJepq6pvSi3 reportedly holds 35 billion PUNCH, or 3.5% of the total supply, and was funded from the intermediary wallet.
  • Wallet H8GLvJ89DwoeBTY3YhepLTf3VmKR44qVnskNdEZHQVDPK holds 25.1 billion tokens, representing 2.5% of supply, and was allegedly funded by the largest holder.
  • Wallet DXU65912VjiPUhKR37TLiHCrbp4uNHVNNZiBdLv1uAx1 controls 17.5 billion tokens, or 1.75% of supply, and is said to be connected within the same funding cluster.

Combined, these three wallets account for approximately 7.75% of the total supply, with all allocations allegedly traceable back to the initial creator distribution, according to the claims.

“This is how controlled memecoins are structured. Stay careful,” StarPlatinum wrote.

Here, it’s worth noting that the website specifies that PUNCH’s total supply stands at 1 billion. Meanwhile, the White Whale also identified two “red flags” related to the PUNCH token. 

“1. Bubble maps is too perfect. Too clean. Real life is messy. 2. Liquidity does NOT look like this. In fact it simply cannot look like this due to how distribution takes place on the idiotic constant product pools,” he noted. “Almost 6x “support” in equal distance below than  resistance above? It’s fake, guys. No coin gets that much support organically with liquidity just sitting around on the books in case of a dip. It’s all done through Meteora.”

However, the White Whale clarified that he is not directly accusing the project team or developers of orchestrating the activity. He stated that the project itself “may or may not be good.”

“I didn’t warn people when I saw the warning signs on Penguin because I didn’t want to be accused of having a conflict of interest. Those same warning signs are now presenting themselves on Punch. Trade carefully. We never know when the cabal is going to pull the rug,” he wrote in another post.

Thus, while PUNCH’s rally has attracted significant interest, analysts’ concerns raise questions about the sustainability of its momentum. As with many sharply appreciating meme coins, heightened volatility and structural risks remain key factors for traders to monitor.

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Crypto Liquidations Steal The Show With Bitcoin Stuck Below $70,000

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Crypto Liquidations Steal The Show With Bitcoin Stuck Below $70,000

Bitcoin fed into “extreme bearish sentiment” as a tight BTC price range fueled daily crypto liquidations of over $200 million.

Bitcoin (BTC) faced fresh downside predictions on Thursday as BTC price action kept long liquidations high.

Key points:

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  • Bitcoin price analysis sees lower levels coming amid a lack of a “strong bounce.”

  • High liquidations contrast with the tightly rangebound BTC price behavior.

  • Crypto funds seal a fourth week of net outflows amid “extreme” bearish sentiment.

Analyst expects Bitcoin to “test lower”

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD acting within an increasingly narrow range, with the day’s lows at $65,620.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

A modest improvement in US jobless claims prior to the Wall Street open had little impact on the mood, and market participants expected lower levels to come into focus next.

“This looks to me as if we’re going to test lower on the markets to see whether there’s some support on Bitcoin,” crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe said about the four-hour chart in a post on X

“Not a strong bounce, and constant lower highs.”

BTC/USDT four-hour chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

CryptoReviewing, the pseudonymous cofounder of trading community Wealth Capital, drew attention to ongoing large liquidation numbers despite the relative lack of BTC price volatility.

“Now, below us at $64,000 – $66,000 we still have a sizable amount of liquidity,” he told X followers alongside data from CoinGlass

“However, $68,000 – $71,000 has around 3x more liquidations built up ready to be taken, making this a higher probability zone to visit in the next days. Bulls really need to respond soon.”

Crypto liquidation history (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

CoinGlass put 24-hour cross-crypto liquidations at $210 million at the time of writing.

Trader Daan Crypto Trades nonetheless described nearby liquidity as “nothing major.”

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“This current ~$66K area has held as support for the past 2 weeks with ~$71K capping price. Will see if we get a decisive break by the end of the week because as of now there’s not much action going on,” he wrote.

Bitcoin Price, Markets, Market Analysis
Binance BTC/USDT liquidation map. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

Institutions underscore ”extreme bearish levels”

Institutional investor flight from crypto instruments, meanwhile, caught the attention of mainstream commentator The Kobeissi Letter.

Related: Bitcoin 2024 buyers steady BTC price as trader sees $52K ‘next week or so’

In an X post on the day, Kobeissi flagged last week’s outflows of $173 million from crypto funds, their fourth consecutive negative weekly performance. 

“This brings 4-week cumulative outflows to -$3.74 billion. Bitcoin led the selling with -$133 million in outflows last week, while Ethereum saw -$85 million. Crypto funds have now seen withdrawals in 11 out of the last 16 weeks,” it continued.

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Weekly crypto asset flows. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X

As Cointelegraph reported, the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) form one part of the institutional sector experiencing long-term pressure under current conditions.

Kobeissi described sentiment as “reaching extreme bearish levels.”