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What’s Next for BTC After Reclaiming $70K?

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What's Next for BTC After Reclaiming $70K?

Bitcoin is pushing into a more decisive part of its recovery. After spending weeks rebuilding from the February flush, the market is no longer just defending support. It is now pressing toward a key resistance cluster around the $80K, which makes this the kind of area where a simple relief rally either matures into something bigger or gets rejected back into range.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

The daily chart is improving, but it has not fully turned bullish yet. BTC has managed to climb from the blue demand area near $60K to $62K and is now moving toward the old breakdown region around $75K to $80K. That is an important development, because this yellow zone acted as support before the market lost it during the broader downtrend. Reaching it again shows that buyers have regained some control, but reclaiming it is a different question altogether.

The broader structure still asks for caution. The price remains below the declining 100-day and 200-day moving averages, and both of them are still sloping lower, which means the macro trend has not been repaired yet. In other words, BTC is rallying into overhead supply while still sitting under major trend filters. If buyers can force a daily acceptance above the $75K area, the technical picture would improve materially. If not, this remains a rebound inside a larger corrective phase.

BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour chart, the recovery looks much cleaner. Bitcoin has been carving out a rising structure with higher lows, and the latest leg higher has carried the price right back toward the upper boundary of that formation. The market is not drifting upward anymore. It is actively pressing resistance, and that usually precedes either a breakout or a sharp reaction.

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Momentum supports the idea of short-term strength, with RSI pushing into the upper end of its range. Still, that also means BTC is arriving at resistance with momentum already stretched. So the next move matters. A clean break above the channel top and the $73K to $75K supply band would suggest continuation toward the next overhead zones. A rejection here, on the other hand, would likely send the price back toward the mid-range and keep the market trapped in consolidation for longer.

On-Chain Analysis

The on-chain backdrop adds an interesting twist. Bitcoin’s adjusted SOPR is still below 1, which means coins moving on-chain are, on average, still being spent at a loss. That tends to happen in corrective or transitional phases, when the market has not yet fully returned to profit-taking behavior. So despite the recent price recovery, the network data suggests the broader reset is not entirely over.

At the same time, aSOPR has started to rebound from its recent lows, which is an early sign of improving conditions. That does not confirm a new expansion phase on its own, but it does hint that the worst of the capitulation pressure may already be behind the market. Put differently, price is testing resistance while on-chain behavior is trying to heal. If those two start aligning through a confirmed breakout on the chart and a move back above 1 on aSOPR, Bitcoin’s outlook would become much stronger.

 

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Strength Stuns Bears But They Haven’t Given Up Yet

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Bitcoin Strength Stuns Bears But They Haven’t Given Up Yet

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin sits above $71,000 as weak US economic data and the US and Israel-Iran war drive investors toward scarce assets.

  • Tech stocks’ correlation to BTC and rising oil prices suggest that the 5-month correction from $126,000 might not be over.

Bitcoin (BTC) jumped above $73,000 on Friday, successfully locking in the 70,000 support for the week. These gains occurred as the US reported weak economic activity data, triggering concerns of an impending recession while the war in Iran continues to drag on.

While socio-economic events and institutional inflows might have led to Bitcoin’s bullish momentum, traders are still questioning if the bear market has actually ended.

Economic turmoil, growing investor appetite for BTC back Bitcoin’s breakout

The US economy grew by a mere 0.7% between October and December 2025, which was a significant downgrade from previous estimates, according to a US Commerce Department report released on Friday. While the final report is due April 9, the risks of a recession throughout 2026 have increased, driving investors away from US Treasuries.

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US 10-year Treasury yield vs. Bitcoin/USD. Source: TradingView

Yields on the US 10-year Treasury surged to 4.26%, meaning investors are demanding a higher return to hold those assets. The mere risk of additional liquidity causes traders to seek shelter in scarce assets. This partially explains why the S&P 500 traded just 5% below its all-time high despite the worsening economic conditions.

WTI oil futures (left) vs. S&P 500 futures (right). Source: TradingView

On Monday, the S&P 500 futures plummeted to their lowest levels in over three months after oil prices briefly surged to $119.50. The US decision to temporarily authorize the purchase of Russian oil stranded at sea helped to cool off some of the risks. This move, announced by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Friday, eased the markets’ short-term concerns.

US-listed spot Bitcoin ETF daily net flows, USD. Source: CoinGlass

Institutional demand for Bitcoin has also been signaled as a potential driver for the recent bullish momentum. Spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) faced four consecutive days of net inflows totaling $583 million, while analysts estimate that Strategy (MSTR) accumulated over $900 million through the yield-bearing STRC instrument.

Related: Bitcoin’s ‘extremely precise’ macro signal puts $100K target back in play

Bitcoin’s momentum turned bullish, but the bear market carries on

At first glance, the economic backdrop points toward liquidity injections and rising institutional interest in Bitcoin. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean the five-month correction following the $126,000 peak in October 2025 has ended. 

Bitcoin’s 50-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 sits at 84%. As concerns grow over sticky inflation and stagnant economic growth, the odds of a stock market pullback increase. Traders are unlikely to use Bitcoin as a hedge, especially given its recent underperformance compared to gold.

Adding to this, oil prices remain $30 higher than levels seen before the war in Iran began. These high fuel costs hit consumer spending and create inflationary pressure, which reduces the capital retail traders have available for crypto investments.

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Inflows to the spot BTC ETFs have surged as $2.14 billion entered the ETFs from Feb. 24 to March 4, driving a 14% rally. However, prices slipped 10% over the next four days as those flows reversed. This suggests spot ETF activity is just reacting to Bitcoin’s price rather than acting as a leading indicator.

Whether Bitcoin stays above $70,000 over the weekend may not shift investor sentiment. While a five-week consolidation and several tests of the $64,000 support show bulls’ confidence, the recent price action hasn’t delivered a clear signal for a breakout.