Bitcoin opened the second week of June under pressure, with traders bracing for continued macro headwinds even as a relief bounce lurks on the near horizon. The market is still nowhere near declaring a bottom, and several observers argue that fresh bear-market lows could come later this year, despite a tentative price uptick in the most recent weekly close.

Investors are watching a cluster of catalysts: looming US inflation data, the trajectory of Federal Reserve policy, and the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict. On-chain metrics and sentiment gauges, meanwhile, point to a confluence of factors that historically precede a potential reversal, even as risk assets remain under pressure.

Key takeaways

• Analysts anticipate a relief rally for BTC in the near term, but traders largely agree that the bear-market bottom remains months away, with a potential trough targeted in the second half of the year.
• May CPI and PPI data are set to shape expectations for the US rate path amid ongoing geopolitical tension, with markets pricing in further tightening scenarios.
• On-chain signals show a shift away from prior speculative excess, even as the market’s broad supply dynamics and key moving averages suggest the risk of a new low remains on the table.
• Investor sentiment sits at historically low levels, signaling “extreme fear,” which some researchers view as a potential precursor to a contrarian buying opportunity.

Bear-market timing remains unsettled despite a cautious bounce

As the first trading days of June unfold, Bitcoin’s price action has delivered a modest relief rally but without decisive improvement that would reframe the macro backdrop. Traders highlighted that the most recent weekly candle closed on a bearish note, leaving an imbalance around a notable level—an observation that implies a potential upside target should higher-timeframe demand reemerge.

Among market participants, there is agreement that even if a short-term bounce materializes, the decisive bear-market low is not yet in sight. Several analysts emphasized that BTC’s recent price action breached key support levels faster than anticipated, underscoring the fragility of near-term momentum. One prominent trader noted that BTC has already swept through the 60,000 level more quickly than expected, with expectations of a period of sideways movement and modest gains through June, followed by a more definitive low later in the year.

Other voices framed the trajectory around longer-running technical lines. A well-known crypto commentator pointed to a break below a major long-term trend line, suggesting a rebound could occur over a 1–3 month horizon before prices test new lows later in the year. The central takeaway from these analyses is a broad expectation of continued volatility and a potential bottom not yet in, even as the market looks for reasons to stabilize.

The wider narrative echoes a similar assessment from a variety of market watchers who track price action against major moving averages. The 200-week moving average, a widely watched gauge of macro-trend direction, recently featured in discussions about whether BTC can stage a meaningful bounce before testing lower levels again. While a brief relief rally could unfold, analysts say the ultimate bottom, if it arrives, may not arrive until the back half of the year.

Inflation data and the rate outlook remain the crucible for risk assets

Inflation data due this week—specifically May’s CPI and PPI—will be pivotal for determining how aggressively investors expect the Federal Reserve to tighten or hold. The last round of inflation figures came in hot, fueling concerns that price pressures remain entrenched and that monetary policy could stay restrictive for longer than some had anticipated.

Market chatter around the Fed’s path has grown more explicit in recent days. A widely cited forecast from a respected market briefing pointed to a BASE case in which the Fed lifts rates again by early 2027, with a non-trivial chance—around 17%—of three rate hikes by April 2027. This stands in contrast to earlier months when traders had priced in more aggressive easing later in the decade and even a sequence of rate cuts in 2026. The shifting probability curve underscores how inflation dynamics and policy expectations can reframe risk appetite across equities and crypto alike.

Meanwhile, equities have shown resilience at times, spurred by stronger-facing tech sectors, but the macro undercurrent remains unsettled. The broader backdrop—geopolitical tensions and the possibility of fresh policy surprises—continues to tilt risk assets toward caution. In this environment, Bitcoin’s fate remains tethered to how inflation data evolves and how the Fed responds to evolving price signals.

On the geopolitical front, a flare-up in tension surrounding the US-Iran dynamic has amplified volatility. While political rhetoric from leadership can momentarily assuage risk-on assets, the reliability of such assurances in stabilizing markets remains limited. The interplay between war dynamics, commodity prices, and macro policy continues to complicate the path for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as investors weigh hedging strategies against potential macro surprises.

Oil markets have added to the macro shuffle, with crude prices moving higher amid the latest developments, providing another variable that can feed through to inflation and the broader risk-asset backdrop.

On-chain signals frame a cautious optimism for a potential reversal

Despite the macro headwinds, on-chain data paints a more nuanced picture. A trio of indicators tracked by analysts suggest that speculative excess from the late-stage bull run has retraced, creating a less frothy base for possible stabilization.

Key observations center on the long-term and short-term SOPR (spent output profit ratio) ratios, the proportion of Bitcoin holders currently underwater or at break-even, and the 200-day moving-average reference point. A respected on-chain analysis team highlighted that the LTH-SOPR and STH-SOPR ratios have fallen materially, indicating that long-term holders are not realizing the outsized profits seen during the previous bull run. In parallel, the share of Bitcoin held in profit has declined toward the mid-range, with supply in profit hovering around the 47% mark—meaning more than half of the market’s participants are at break-even or in a loss position. Such a shift contrasts with bull-market phases, when a much larger share of supply sits in profit.

Additionally, CryptoQuant’s quick-take notes a broader “demand shortage,” suggesting that underlying liquidity and speculative fervor have cooled as equities and tech stocks draw capital away from crypto. The combination of these signals—reduced profit-taking by long-term holders, a higher propensity to hold rather than realize gains, and a cooling in demand—helps to explain why some analysts see room for a cautious, measured rebound rather than a decisive resumed uptrend.

Sentiment readings point to an unusual, contrarian setup

Market mood across the crypto space remains at one of its most bearish readings in recent memory. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has printed a score in the single digits, underscoring a climate of “extreme fear.” Such sentiment levels have historically appeared near price bottoms, prompting researchers to argue that the crowd may have already discounted much of the downside. Santiment, a well-known sentiment analytics firm, flagged the current wave of pessimism as among the strongest since mid-February, noting that such moments have sometimes signaled a ripe environment for patient buyers willing to go against the prevailing mood.

In practical terms, observers caution that sentiment alone cannot forecast exact turning points. Still, the consensus is that when traders declare an asset class as “dead” or write off its prospects, it can reduce the pool of sellers and create a subtler path to potential stabilization and accumulation. This dynamic, coupled with on-chain cooling and macro resilience in select risk assets, keeps the door open for an eventual macro-driven rally—even if the near term remains fragile.

What to watch next

Readers should monitor the upcoming inflation prints and the resulting shifts in expectations for Fed policy, as well as evolving geopolitical developments that could alter risk premiums across markets. On-chain metrics—especially the relationship between long-term and short-term holders, and the trajectory of supply in profit—will continue to provide a useful lens on whether the market is building a foundation for a future uptick or sliding toward new lows. Finally, sentiment signals merit watching for any signs of a sustained shift from fear toward a constructive, risk-on stance.

As the week unfolds, investors will be weighing whether the macro and on-chain signals align toward a bottoming process or a renewed leg lower. With risk appetite historically sensitive to inflation surprises and policy guidance, the path for Bitcoin remains uncertain, even as some indicators suggest a quieter period of selling pressure could be underway. The next few data releases and market reactions will be essential in clarifying whether June marks the start of a stabilization phase or simply a pause before a deeper leg down.

On March 11, Strive Inc. bought Strategy’s 11.5% dividend-paying STRC at its full par value of $100 per share “instead of holding idle cash.”

It inaccurately insinuated that its $50 million STRC purchase would somehow pay for $50 million worth of dividend payouts to Strive’s shareholders while earning extra benefits.

Indeed, it claimed that holding STRC instead of cash would earn dividends at a higher rate than a money market, lengthening Strive’s runway for servicing dividend payments on its own STRC competitor, SATA.

Fast-forward to Friday’s close of business in New York, however, and Strive’s $50 million STRC purchase, inclusive of its three paid monthly dividends of $480,000 apiece, is now worth just $48,140,000.

In other words, holding STRC instead of cash has cost Strive $1.86 million, a loss of 3.7% in just three months. 

Strive is the bitcoin treasury company co-founded by Vivek Ramaswamy and a former Bud Light executive. It bought 500,000 shares of Strategy’s STRC fully priced at $100 apiece. 

The pitch was that STRC behaves like cash but pays a generous yield. Well, it does pay a generous yield, and also, the shares closed at $93.40 on Friday — down 6.6% since Strive purchased them three months ago.

A money market competitor that loses money

Despite dubious ads and endless comparisons, STRC isn’t a bank account, money market, bond, swap, note of indebtedness, nor any other product that enjoys FDIC or SIPC insurance.

To the contrary, STRC is a stock and trades at any price set by Nasdaq traders. Strategy has never promised to bid for STRC, and shareholders have no right to redeem STRC for their original investment.

Historically, STRC has paid $0.96 monthly dividends per share, but Strategy may suspend dividends at any time and at its discretion.

Strategy allegedly designed STRC to hover near its $100 par, adjusting the rate every month “to encourage trading around STRC’s $100 par value and to help strip away price volatility.” 

Unsophisticated retail investors, as well companies that benefit from Bitcoin-branded media attention like Strive, bought into that guidance.

A court in the eastern Chinese city of Qingdao sentenced a man to 10 years and nine months in prison for stealing 107 Bitcoin after memorizing most of a victim’s 12-word wallet seed phrase.

The Licang District People’s Court sentenced the perpetrator, identified as Zhang, to prison and fined him 100,000 yuan (about $14,700) after finding he took control of the victim’s wallet and later cashed out more than $97,000, according to the case summary published by the Supreme People’s Procuratorate’s official WeChat account.

Feng asked Zhang, an acquaintance who had previously helped with Bitcoin transactions, to assist in cashing out 117 Bitcoin in July 2023. While Feng wrote down the wallet’s 12-word recovery phrase during setup, Zhang memorized 11 of them and later reconstructed the final word to transfer 107 Bitcoin.

China has imposed a series of cryptocurrency-related bans over the years, including on mining and trading. However, prosecutors argued that Bitcoin meets the legal definition of “property” and can be the object of theft under criminal law.

Related: California man jailed for 78 months over $250M crypto theft conspiracy

107 Bitcoins vanished? Source: Supreme People’s Procuratorate’s official WeChat account

Electronic evidence and legal classification

When Feng discovered the missing Bitcoin and reported the theft, investigators traced the transactions and linked them to Zhang.

Zhang admitted transferring the Bitcoin but claimed he had been “protecting” the assets and had not profited, arguing he later lost money speculating on the price.

Prosecutors said electronic records showed Zhang converted the assets and realized more than $97,000 in proceeds.

Alvin Kan, chief operating officer at Bitget Wallet, told Cointelegraph that the case shows wallet security threats are often human rather than technical.

While 12-word recovery phrases are computationally secure against brute-force attacks, Kan said 24-word phrases “raise the ceiling further,” making a “reasonable case” for the industry to adopt them more widely.

Kan added that the incident also highlights the risks of sharing recovery phrases in “trusted helper” scenarios, where social engineering can lead to wallet compromise. Most users avoid screenshots but rarely consider who is physically present during wallet setup, even though “momentary exposure is still exposure.”

Asia Express: North Korea denies crypto hacks, Upbit’s bank tests Ripple

Bitmine Immersion Technologies has raised its Ethereum treasury to 5.54 million ETH, putting the company closer to its goal of owning 5% of the network’s supply.

Bitmine adds 126,971 ETH during market pullback

In a Monday announcement, Bitmine said its holdings reached 5,543,872 ETH as of June 7. At the company’s reference price of $1,630 per ETH, the position was worth about $9.04 billion. Its wider portfolio included 204 Bitcoin, $247 million in cash, a $180 million Beast Industries stake and an $88 million Eightco position.

The company bought 126,971 ETH during the week, increasing its total from 5,416,901 ETH. As previously reported by crypto.news, the earlier balance represented 4.49% of Ethereum’s supply. Bitmine now says it controls 4.59% of the estimated 120.7 million ETH supply, placing it 92% of the way toward its “Alchemy of 5%” target.

Staked Ethereum reaches 4.72 million tokens

Bitmine reported 4,718,677 staked ETH, valued at about $7.7 billion using the same reference price. That amount equals more than 85% of its total Ethereum holdings. The company uses its Made in America Validator Network, known as MAVAN, and other staking partners to earn rewards while supporting Ethereum transactions.

“Annualized staking revenues are now projected at $230 million,” Chairman Tom Lee said. 

Bitmine reported a seven-day annualized staking yield of 2.99%. It estimated that staking its full ETH balance through MAVAN and partner platforms could raise annual rewards to about $270 million, though returns may change with network conditions.

A separate crypto.news report examined whether Bitmine’s growing stake could add concentration risks around Ethereum. Bitmine says MAVAN focuses on security, performance and resilience. Its expanding staked balance also makes validator operations a key part of the treasury model.

Tom Lee maintains the 5% Ethereum strategy

Lee said Bitmine increased buying because the latest ETH price decline did not match what he described as stronger Ethereum fundamentals. “We increased our buying,” Lee said, adding that the company expects to reach its 5% supply goal during 2026 as planned. The target would require Bitmine to hold about 6.04 million ETH if supply remains near 120.7 million.

The company links its Ethereum strategy to growing use of public blockchains for tokenized financial assets and artificial intelligence systems. Those remain forward-looking views from Bitmine’s management. Crypto.news recently reported that the company held 5.42 million ETH and 4.72 million staked tokens before the latest purchase.

BMNR trading remains high as treasury expands

Bitmine reported average daily BMNR trading volume of $829 million over five sessions through June 5. The company ranked its shares as the 148th most traded stock in the United States, behind Workday and ahead of Pfizer.

The company describes its treasury as the largest disclosed corporate Ethereum position. It ranks second among public crypto treasuries behind Strategy, based on figures included in the release. Bitmine also retains cash and smaller equity positions alongside its main ETH holding at present.

Key Takeaways

• Tesla shares advanced 1.4% to $396.65 during Monday’s premarket session, rebounding from Friday’s 6.6% decline
• SpaceX’s $75 billion public offering has garnered two-times oversubscription — significantly below the four to five times threshold Wall Street considers successful
• Betting markets assign 43–50% probability to a potential Tesla-SpaceX combination by late 2026 or mid-2027
• Analysts maintain a collective “Hold” rating on TSLA with a mean price objective of $404.37
• Company insiders have offloaded 55,218 TSLA shares totaling $20.6 million in the previous three months

Tesla (TSLA) shares jumped 1.4% to reach $396.65 during Monday’s premarket hours, recouping losses after Friday’s harsh 6.6% tumble.

Tesla, Inc., TSLA

Friday’s downturn followed robust employment data that sparked concerns about potential interest rate increases. The tech-heavy Nasdaq plummeted 4.2% during that session, pulling down technology stocks across the board. Broadcom’s lackluster quarterly results further dampened investor sentiment.

By Monday morning, attention had pivoted toward a single company: SpaceX.

Elon Musk’s aerospace venture is scheduled to finalize its IPO pricing this Thursday. According to Reuters, the $75 billion offering has attracted $150 billion in investor interest — resulting in a two-times oversubscription ratio.

While that figure appears substantial on its surface, Wall Street professionals view it as underwhelming. Successful initial public offerings typically achieve oversubscription levels ranging from two to five times. For a high-profile transaction like SpaceX, achieving four or five times oversubscription would signal strong post-debut performance potential.

It’s worth noting that the week has just begun. Investor appetite can fluctuate considerably in the coming days.

A pressing concern for Tesla shareholders involves whether investors might liquidate TSLA positions to fund SpaceX purchases. Such technical selling pressure could temporarily suppress the stock price, regardless of underlying business performance.

The Tesla-SpaceX Connection Deepens

Both enterprises have been forging stronger ties recently. Collaborative efforts span artificial intelligence initiatives and chip production capabilities. Prediction platforms are assigning meaningful probability to a potential combination — Kalshi estimates 50% likelihood before May 2027, while Polymarket indicates 43% probability before 2026 concludes.

Any potential merger would occur following SpaceX’s market debut. Nevertheless, these probability assessments are capturing market attention.

Tesla commenced Monday trading at $391.00. The shares currently trade within their 52-week range bounded by $281.85 on the low end and $498.83 at the peak. The 50-day moving average stands at $395.33, while the 200-day average registers $416.11. Entering Monday’s session, TSLA had declined 13% year-to-date while posting a 37% gain over the trailing twelve months.

During its latest quarterly report, Tesla delivered $0.41 in earnings per share, marginally surpassing the $0.39 analyst consensus. Revenue totaled $22.39 billion, falling slightly short of the anticipated $22.96 billion. On a year-over-year basis, revenue expanded 15.8%.

Institutional Holdings and Executive Transactions

Among institutional investors, Manchester Capital Management expanded its Tesla position by 52.6% during the fourth quarter, concluding the period with 18,449 shares valued at approximately $8.3 million. Multiple additional investment firms similarly increased their allocations in recent quarters.

Executive trading activity paints a contrasting picture. Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja divested 3,000 shares at $450.00 on May 13th, generating proceeds of $1.35 million. Board member Kathleen Wilson-Thompson sold 26,409 shares at $378.11 on April 30th. Collectively, company insiders have liquidated $20.6 million in stock value throughout the past ninety days.

Wall Street opinions remain divided. Deutsche Bank initiated coverage with a “Buy” recommendation. Wedbush maintained its “Outperform” stance alongside a $600 price objective. Jefferies continues rating the stock “Neutral.” GLJ Research upholds its “Sell” rating. The aggregate consensus from 44 analysts registers as “Hold” with a $404.37 average target price.

Tesla presently maintains a $1.47 trillion market capitalization and trades at a PE multiple of 358.72.

Bitcoin (BTC) starts the second week of June with damage control — and new macro lows are still expected this year.

• Traders see a relief bounce coming next for BTC price action, but the bottom, they agree, is not in.
• US inflation data will test markets’ resolve as the US-Iran war drags on.
• Peace-deal pledges by US President Donald Trump do little to stabilize the risk-asset picture.
• Multiple onchain indicators give analysts hope that the worst of the sell-off is over.
• Crypto sentiment dives to some of its lowest levels on record.

Bitcoin bear-market bottom is months away

Bitcoin saw modest relief around its latest weekly close, data from TradingView shows, but among traders, the lack of major good news is conspicuous.

“Previous weekly candle closed very bearish, and left an imbalance at 72.5K. As long as we hold the 59.1K previous weekly low, my final long target for this week is that 72.5K imbalance,” trader Lennaert Snyder wrote in one of his latest analysis posts on X.

BTC/USDT four-hour chart. Source: Lennaert Snyder/X

Trader Mark Cullen warned that even in the event of a relief bounce, the bear-market low was still to come.

“Now $BTC has swept the 60K level, which happened a bit quicker than i had originally anticipated,” he told X followers. 

“I expect we have a bit more sideways and up for the rest of June. I am not expecting the ultimate market low until middle to late Q3.”

BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Mark Cullen/X

With slightly different timing, crypto commentator ColinTalksCrypto had similar expectations. BTC/USD, he noted, had closed below a key long-term trend line, the 200-week simple moving average (SMA).

“Thus, we likely get a bounce for a 1-3 months and then a drop to a new low in Q4,” he argued.

ColinTalksCrypto said that Q4 “has high odds of being the cycle bottom.”

BTC/USD one-week chart with 200SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

CPI and PPI inflation to challenge multiyear highs

May US inflation data will add fuel to market nerves this week, with markets already betting on interest-rate hikes.

The May prints of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) are slated to reflect the ongoing influence of the US-Iran war on the economy.

Both indexes hit multiyear highs when last updated for April, and the latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows expectations of Federal Reserve policy changing quickly.

“The BASE case shows two rate HIKES by early 2027. There is even a rising 17% chance of 3 rate HIKES by April 2027,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted in analysis late last week. 

“Just months ago, markets saw up to 4 rate CUTS in 2026 alone.”

Fed target rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME Group

As Cointelegraph reported, US stock markets have broadly shaken off inflation risks, hitting repeated all-time highs as tech stocks drive optimism.

That picture is also looking less stable this week as rate-hike nerves filter through. South Korea’s stock market was halted for volatility on Monday after falling 8% at the open.

Korea Composite Index one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

“Something just shifted in the world’s hottest stock market,” Nic Puckrin, founder of crypto platform Coin Bureau, commented on Sunday. 

“Koreans stocks are up 90% this year. But the options chart on the Korea ETF has flipped from bullish bets to downside protection. The is a sign that those still in the trade are no longer confident.”

Market data for iShares South Korea ETF. Source: Nic Puckrin/X

Iran war peace promises fail to tame markets

Coming in tandem with macro pressure are developments in the US-Iran war, which remains an unpredictable market volatility catalyst.

Last week, US President Donald Trump said that the conflict would “work out well,” but the assurances failed to stop new multiyear lows for BTC/USD.

Exchanges of fire in the interim meant that the sense of uncertainty continued.

Quoted by the Financial Times and others on Sunday, Trump again sought to put a positive slant on events, saying that the latest strikes would not impact ongoing peace negotiations.

“The deal may make it on its own merit, or not, but this will not have any effect on it,” he said in a telephone interview.

Bitcoin appeared buoyed by Trump’s words, which included an assertion that Israel would have “no choice” but to accept an Iran deal.

Oil prices gained into the new week, with WTI crude returning above $95 per barrel. 

CFDs on US WTI crude oil one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Commenting, crypto trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe warned that the new week would start with a bump.

“I would expect to see prices drop slightly lower going into the Monday open, as the stock markets were falling off a cliff on Friday evening,” he told X followers. 

“After US open, or on Tuesday, this rotates back up and we’ll start to see a glimpse of upwards momentum on Bitcoin.”

BTC/USDT one-day chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

Indicators point to easing sell pressure

In Bitcoin circles, talk continues to focus on whether BTC has seen its bear-market bottom with the latest dip below $60,000.

Last week, Cointelegraph reported on an analysis concluding that most prerequisites for a market rebound were already in place.

In its latest research, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant added to the list of reasons why the worst of the rout should be over.

“Together, these indicators suggest that speculative excess has largely been removed from the system,” contributor XWIN Japan wrote in a QuickTake blog post. 

“Market sentiment has shifted from euphoria to caution, and investors are entering a period of patience and accumulation.”

The three indicators in question are the spent out profit ratio (SOPR) for long-term (LTH) and short-term (STH) investors, along with the overall BTC supply held at a loss, as well as the 200-day simple moving average (SMA).

The latter is already on the radar for traders after BTC/USD returned to it for the first time since 2023 last week.

“The LTH-SOPR / STH-SOPR ratio has fallen significantly, indicating that long-term holders are no longer realizing the large profits seen during the previous bull market,” XWIN continued about the other components. 

“Supply in Profit has dropped to roughly 47%, meaning more than half of Bitcoin holders are now at break-even or in a loss position. This is a sharp contrast to bull market conditions, when over 90% of supply is often in profit.”

Bitcoin supply in profit (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

CryptoQuant also flagged a “demand shortage” thanks to tech stocks stealing the limelight from crypto as a whole.

Sentiment reflects “widespread despair” opportunity

Crypto market sentiment has returned to single figures, per data from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index — but a buying opportunity could be already here.

Related: Bitcoin risks new purge with bear-market losses still $35B below 2022 total

The Index, which uses a basket of factors to determine the overall market mood, measured 8/100 on Monday — well within its “extreme fear” zone.

Such a low score was last seen at the start of April, and is one of the lowest ever recorded.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

Monitoring social media cues, research platform Santiment described the “highest level of pessimism since mid-February.” 

“Historically, these moments of widespread despair have often appeared close to market bottoms,” it told X followers. 

“When traders begin declaring an asset class ‘dead,’ especially something largely speculative-driven like crypto, it typically signals that many sellers have already exited their positions, leaving less supply available to push prices significantly lower.”

Crypto sentiment data. Source: Santiment/X

In February, when the $60,000 zone first came back into focus, a collapse in sentiment preceded a rebound to the mid-$70,000 range.

“While sentiment alone cannot predict exact turning points, historical patterns indicate that periods when investors are most convinced that crypto is ‘finished’ have frequently provided safer-than-average opportunities for patient traders willing to take the opposite side of the crowd’s emotions,” Santiment added.