Bitcoin trading remained volatile on Thursday, rising to around $67,000 after briefly dipping near $65,900, as traders weighed a new message from U.S. President Donald Trump claiming the nation’s trade deficit has been cut by 78% thanks to tariffs and could turn positive later this year.

“The United States trade deficit has been reduced by 78% because of the tariffs being charged to other companies and countries,” Trump said in a Truth Social post late Wednesday. “Ot will go into positive territory during this year, for the first time in many decades.”

The claim matters for crypto less because of the math in any single post and more because it pulls the market back to a familiar pressure point.

Tariffs can act like a tax on imports, which can lift prices in the real economy and complicate the path for interest rates. When markets start pricing “rates higher for longer,” the dollar tends to firm and risk assets tend to lose oxygen.

Bitcoin has spent the past two weeks trading like a macro proxy again, reacting to shifts in liquidity and rate expectations rather than any crypto specific catalyst.

There is also a real data backdrop that makes trade a live topic. In early January, the U.S. trade deficit narrowed sharply to about $29.4 billion, the lowest since 2009, with analysts pointing to a drop in imports, a jump in exports and the knock on effects of tariff threats.

But economists also noted that a big part of the swing came from non monetary gold flows, which can make month to month numbers look cleaner than the underlying trend.

If the tariffs story hardens into a stronger dollar and tighter financial conditions, rallies can struggle to stick. If it fades into political noise, crypto goes back to watching flows, leverage and whether buyers can reclaim lost levels.

Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin is signaling that markets are underestimating a coming credit shock.

In his latest Substack essay, “This Is Fine,” the BitMEX co-founder argues that Bitcoin (BTC) acts as a “global fiat liquidity fire alarm.” Its sharp drop from $126,000 to around $60,000, while the Nasdaq 100 remained relatively stable, reflects tightening dollar liquidity and rising deflation risk.

AI job losses may trigger $500B bank losses, Arthur Hayes says

Hayes links that risk to artificial intelligence. He estimates there are 72.1 million knowledge workers in the U.S., many of whom carry significant consumer debt and mortgages. If AI tools rapidly replace even 20% of those workers, he projects major stress for the banking system.

Using Federal Reserve data, Hayes calculates roughly $3.76 trillion in bank-held consumer credit, excluding student loans. He also estimates knowledge workers carry an average mortgage balance of about $250,000.

If widespread layoffs occur, he projects $330 billion in consumer credit losses and $227 billion in mortgage losses. After accounting for reserves, that would translate to roughly a 13% hit to U.S. commercial bank equity.

Hayes argues that while the largest “too big to fail” banks may withstand the shock, smaller regional lenders could face severe stress. Lending would tighten, credit would contract, and economic demand would weaken. Markets would first price in deflation before policymakers intervene.

He points to several early warning signs. Software and SaaS stocks have underperformed broader tech indices. Consumer staples are outperforming discretionary stocks, suggesting households are cutting back. Credit card delinquencies are rising. Meanwhile, gold has strengthened relative to Bitcoin, another sign of defensive positioning.

Despite the near-term risk, Hayes remains structurally bullish on Bitcoin. He argues that deflationary shocks eventually force the Federal Reserve to restart aggressive liquidity programs. Political tensions may delay action, but once banking stress intensifies, he expects policymakers to “print” on a large scale.

Hayes outlines two scenarios. Either Bitcoin’s drop to $60,000 marked the bottom and equities will follow lower before liquidity returns, or Bitcoin could fall further if credit conditions worsen. In both cases, he believes renewed monetary expansion would ultimately push Bitcoin to new highs.

For now, Hayes advises caution and limited leverage. The alarm may be ringing, but he argues the real opportunity comes when the money printer starts again.

TLDR

• American Bitcoin Corp has reached 6,039 BTC in its corporate treasury.
• The company is now the 17th largest corporate holder of Bitcoin globally.
• ABTC uses a “mining-to-treasury” strategy to retain the Bitcoin it mines.
• Since going public in September 2025, ABTC has achieved a 116% Bitcoin yield.
• Despite the Bitcoin reserve growth, ABTC’s stock has fallen by 86%.

American Bitcoin Corp (ABTC), a company backed by the Trump family, has reached a major milestone in the cryptocurrency market. After just six months of going public, the company now holds 6,039 Bitcoin (BTC), valued at approximately $409 million. This achievement positions ABTC as the 17th largest corporate holder of Bitcoin globally.

ABTC’s Bitcoin Reserves and Mining-to-Treasury Strategy

American Bitcoin Corp’s Bitcoin reserves have quickly grown due to its “mining-to-treasury” approach. Instead of selling the Bitcoin it mines, ABTC retains the coins, which has contributed to the company’s swift growth. In January alone, it added 217 BTC to its holdings, showing continued success in this strategy.

The company has combined both mining operations and market purchases to fuel its treasury growth. This hybrid strategy has led to a 116% yield in Bitcoin since ABTC’s debut on the Nasdaq in September 2025. By keeping its mined Bitcoin instead of selling, ABTC has steadily built its reserve, distinguishing itself from traditional miners.

Stock Performance and Market Volatility

Despite growing its Bitcoin treasury, ABTC’s stock has faced significant challenges in the market. Since going public, the company’s shares have dropped by 86%, affected by Bitcoin’s volatility and the expiration of the lock-up period for early investors. This sharp decline in stock price is a reflection of the broader market trends impacting both ABTC and the cryptocurrency space.

Despite the stock downturn, analysts remain confident about ABTC’s prospects. Both Roth Capital and H.C. Wainwright & Co. have maintained Buy ratings with a $4 price target. These ratings reflect optimism about the company’s long-term potential, even with short-term market volatility.

Bitcoin’s Influence on ABTC’s Growth

American Bitcoin Corp’s treasury growth highlights its effective use of Bitcoin mining and market participation. The company’s strategy has enabled it to quickly accumulate a significant amount of Bitcoin, surpassing other firms like GameStop and Gemini Space Station in corporate holdings. However, the broader market conditions continue to affect the company’s stock performance.

ABTC’s current position in the global ranking of Bitcoin corporate treasuries signals its ambition in the cryptocurrency space. Despite the challenges, the company’s approach of retaining its mined Bitcoin continues to prove effective in growing its reserve. As Bitcoin prices remain volatile, ABTC’s future strategy will be crucial in maintaining its position in the market.

The Aptos Foundation is looking to propose a significant shakeup to the dynamics of the Aptos token, announcing a host of potential policy changes designed to spur greater APT deflation.  

In an X post on Wednesday, the Aptos Foundation said it would submit several governance proposals to help transition the ecosystem away from its current subsidy-based emission format to something focused more on “performance-driven mechanisms” and decreasing APT supply. 

“The Aptos network is transitioning to performance-driven tokenomics designed to align supply mechanics with network utilization,” the Aptos Foundation said, adding:

“This update replaces bootstrap-era subsidy with mechanisms tied to transaction activity, establishing a framework where burns can exceed emissions as high-throughput applications scale.” 

One of the foundation’s proposals is to set a hard cap at 2.1 billion tokens, as APT currently does not have a maximum cap on the total supply. The team said there are currently 1.196 billion APT in circulation.

Under the current emission structure, new tokens are continuously minted to support the ecosystem by funding things like development, grants, and staking rewards. 

Meanwhile, significant token unlocks have been hanging over the ecosystem. 

However, the Aptos Foundation said that this specific pressure has been easing and will continue to decline after the next major four-year token unlock cycle ends in October, stating that it will result in a 60% reduction in annualized supply unlocks. 

The team said that as the ecosystem has matured to the point where big institutions such as BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, and Apollo are now deploying “hundreds of millions onchain,” APT tokenomics need to become more sustainable. 

“Without reform, emissions continue indefinitely with no hard ceiling, no performance requirements, and no connection between issuance and network activity,” the team said. 

Key proposals and policy changes afoot 

Alongside the hard 2.1 billion supply cap, the proposed policy changes include a reduction of the annual staking rewards rate from 5.19% to 2.6%, alongside increasing rewards for “longer staking commitments.” 

The Aptos Foundation said this would result in reduced overall staking emissions while also rewarding long-term participants. 

Elsewhere, the team is pushing for a 10-fold increase in gas fees, arguing that there is room to do this given how cheap it is to use the network. As gas fees paid in APT are burned, this would also help reduce emissions. 

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“Even with a 10X increase, stablecoin transfers would still be the lowest in the world at around $0.00014, making it the ideal blockchain for stablecoins, payments, and any other similar high-volume transactions,” the team said.

The Aptos Foundation also proposed permanently locking 210 million APT tokens for staking on the network. The team said this would be “functionally equivalent to a token burn” and will use the rewards to fund foundation operations. 

The team also said it will change its grants policy and enact stricter KPIs to ensure greater performance before issuing tokens. Finally, the foundation will also explore a token buyback program or APT reserve to help balance supply.