Why the CPI Release Matters for the Price of Bitcoin

The previous Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was published on 13 January and had a significant impact on Bitcoin’s price. As the BTC/USD chart shows:

→ shortly after the release, the price surged aggressively to the 14 January peak;
→ it then reversed sharply lower (a sign of a bull trap), creating a bearish outlook — which we highlighted on 21 January;
→ subsequently, it broke through multi-month support and entered an accelerated decline towards the $60k area.

For this reason, today’s US inflation report (16:30, GMT+3) is drawing close attention across multiple markets, as it may have a substantial effect on both the dollar and traders’ appetite for risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Technical Analysis of the BTC/USD Chart

Bitcoin’s price swings have formed a descending channel, shown in red. Within this framework:

→ the lower boundary (L) appears to be key support. When the price dipped below it on 6 February, aggressive buyers stepped in, resulting in a candle with a long lower shadow;

→ the QL line, which divides the lower half of the channel into two sections, is acting as resistance — as reflected in price action on 9 February.

The ATR indicator is trending lower, signalling declining volatility, which suggests the market is awaiting important news. Higher inflation is generally seen as a factor that could delay interest rate cuts, strengthen the dollar and bond yields, and weigh on BTC/USD. Conversely, softer inflation would be supportive for cryptocurrencies.

If the CPI release does not produce major surprises, Bitcoin may continue to trade within the broad L–QL range.

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