Key Takeaways

• Joint U.S.-Israel military operations against Iran over the weekend inject fresh geopolitical risk into financial markets
• Major indices declined through the week; Bitcoin retreated toward $66,000 as gold advanced to $2,596
• February employment report releases Friday; prior month revealed 130,000 new positions, exceeding analyst expectations by over 100%
• Critical earnings announcements include Broadcom, CrowdStrike, Costco, and Target
• Apple begins product rollout Monday, with special presentation scheduled for midweek

Equity markets finished the week in negative territory as artificial intelligence and entertainment sector stocks produced volatile swings. The S&P 500 registered losses for the trading day, week, and February overall.

The Nasdaq 100 similarly declined, while the Dow Jones dropped 1.05%. Treasury yields on 10-year notes pulled back to 3.95%.

Bitcoin descended toward $66,000 as the week concluded. Gold advanced to $2,596 per ounce and crude oil climbed to $67.29 per barrel.

During the weekend, coordinated U.S. and Israeli forces executed military strikes against Iranian targets. President Trump issued statements encouraging regime change in Iran, prompting retaliatory strikes from Iran targeting Israeli territory and Gulf region nations.

Crude oil prices had already been climbing throughout the week on mounting Iran-related tensions. Additional escalation could drive energy prices higher, impacting sectors including energy production, transportation, and defense manufacturing.

Employment Data Takes Priority

The February employment situation report publishes Friday. January’s report revealed employers added 130,000 positions, substantially exceeding economist projections.

That report also included downward revisions to previous months, indicating early 2025 job creation was softer than initially calculated. The Federal Reserve maintains its policy rate at 3.5% to 3.75% as market participants monitor for signs of labor market deceleration.

Unemployment is anticipated to remain near 4.4%. A softer reading could reignite speculation about potential rate reductions in March or May.

The postponed January retail sales data also releases Friday. December figures showed consumer spending momentum stalled as the year ended, with subdued employment growth identified as a contributing factor.

Corporate Results Continue Rolling In

Broadcom announces results Wednesday with analysts projecting approximately $19.22 billion in quarterly revenue. The company indicated in December that artificial intelligence-related sales would experience a doubling during the period.

CrowdStrike delivers its report Tuesday. Software companies face headwinds from concerns about AI-driven disruption, though certain analysts view artificial intelligence as creating expansion opportunities in cybersecurity.

Marvell Technology follows on Thursday. Market watchers will scrutinize AI semiconductor demand following Nvidia’s exceptional quarter featuring $68.1 billion in Q4 sales.

Target announces results Tuesday under recently appointed CEO Michael Fiddelke, who assumed leadership last month. Target’s stock price has rebounded in recent months following a challenging 2025.

Costco releases earnings Thursday. The retailer’s shares have similarly shown improvement in 2026 after experiencing declines the prior year.

Netflix stock surged 13.82% over the past week after Warner Bros. Discovery accepted a $31-per-share acquisition proposal from Paramount Skydance, rejecting Netflix’s competing bid. Netflix declined to increase its offer and withdrew from consideration.

Apple anticipates unveiling new products beginning Monday, potentially including the iPhone 17 and an affordably priced MacBook. A dedicated special event is confirmed for Wednesday.

The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book publishes Wednesday in advance of the central bank’s March 17-18 policy meeting.

Marvell Technology’s quarterly results are scheduled for release Thursday, March 5.

SpaceX has held bitcoin for years without ever having to explain why to the public market investors. That’s about to change.

Bloomberg reported late Friday that Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite company is targeting a confidential IPO filing with the SEC as soon as March, keeping it on track for a June listing that would be the largest in history. The company is expected to seek a valuation above $1.75 trillion and raise as much as $50 billion, eclipsing Saudi Aramco’s 2019 record of $29 billion.

Buried inside that filing will be 8,285 bitcoin.

Arkham Intelligence data shows SpaceX’s identified wallets held about $544.8 million in BTC as of Saturday morning, spread across 43 addresses in Coinbase Prime custody.

The balance has remained roughly stable around 8,300 BTC since at least early 2026, but the dollar value has moved sharply in the wrong direction. In December, when CoinDesk reported on the holdings ahead of the planned listing, the same stack was worth roughly $780 million at bitcoin’s then price near $92,500.

By early February, when the SpaceX-xAI merger brought the position back into focus, it had dropped to around $650 million with bitcoin near $78,000.

Now it sits around $545 million. That’s a $235 million decline in value over three months without SpaceX touching a single coin.

That means SpaceX’s S-1 will show bitcoin-related paper losses for any period where BTC declined, and future quarterly earnings will carry that volatility regardless of whether the company buys or sells.

The Tesla example

Tesla offers the closest precedent, and it isn’t reassuring.

Musk’s automaker has booked hundreds of millions in paper losses during past drawdowns despite never changing its position, creating recurring headline risk that overshadowed the underlying business. SpaceX could soon face the same dynamic, except its first disclosure arrives during one of bitcoin’s sharpest corrections in years rather than during a rally.

However, it’s worth noting that Tesla reported total revenue of $94.8 billion and gross profit of $17 billion in 2025. So having millions of bitcoin paper losses in its balance sheet may not move the needle much for Elon Musk’s companies.

SpaceX’s BTC portfolio peaked near $2 billion in late 2021, crashed through 2022, and has spent the past two years fluctuating between $400 million and $800 million.

As such, SpaceX has shown no inclination to trade its position. Unlike Tesla, which sold and repurchased bitcoin, the Arkham data suggests SpaceX has simply held through every cycle.

One of the most popular AI models gives a shocking answer to a pressing question regarding PI’s price at the end of this month.

It goes without saying that the clock is officially ticking. We’re already in March, meaning that the close of the first quarterly window is upon us, and millions of people holding the native token of Pi Network are wondering: what will the PI price be?

Well, we’ve produced countless reports based on the thoughts of prominent and well-known analysts in the space, but for this one, we turned to Gemini – one of the most popular AI models out there.

After all, if AI is the future, why not try seeing the reasoning and justification of a price model? So, we asked it directly – what will the price of PI be at the end of this month? The answer is very interesting.

Generating PI Price Predictions for Various Scenarios

First things first, Gemini went on to describe three scenarios for the PI price this month, somewhat expectedly covering all angles. The model called them “The Doomsday Bot,” “The Boring Realist,” and “The Hopium Generator.” Clearly, its crypto slang is somewhat stuck in 2021, but let’s ignore that for now.

The first scenario predicts PI’s price to dump to $0.14 or lower by the end of the month. The reasoning is that impatient early adopters will aggressively dump their bags the second they get a shred of liquidity following more KYC migration unlocks.

The second one predicts a chop – a sideways price action, where the “Pi Core team continues its notoriously methodical and slow approach.” Gemini says the token could continue trading in a relatively narrow range between $0.17 and $0.20.

Last but not least, we have the bullish take, which sees the price shooting above $0.50 – a 3x increase in what the AI calculates as the “perfect storm scenario.” This would require the network to successfully bridge millions of users into spending participants and surprise major exchange listings.

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So, up until now, the AI model doesn’t take any chances and covers pretty much any scenario – from bearish, to sideways, to positive. Sounds an awful lot like a veteran analyst, right?

But here’s the twist.

Gemini’s Reality Check

In its last paragraph, Gemini set its foot firmly on the ground, saying:

“Before you go financing a Lambo based on the Hopium Generator, let’s look at the facts. With PI sitting around $0.17 and an estimated circulating supply of over 9.4 billion tokens, jumping to $0.5, let alone the wild $314,159 numbers you see on X – would require billions of dollars in actual capital to enter the ecosystem.”

The model urges users to keep their expectations in check as the end of the quarter closes in.

Key Takeaways

• Jim Cramer advises maintaining CVX positions, highlighting the 3.85% dividend yield and company reliability
• Earnings per share reached $1.52, surpassing projections by $0.08, despite a 10.2% revenue decline year-over-year
• Dividend payment increased to $1.78 quarterly ($7.12 annualized, approximately 3.8% yield)
• Institutional investors expanded holdings; institutions now control 72.42% of outstanding shares
• Company insiders divested $89.5M in stock during the previous quarter; Wall Street consensus remains “Hold” at $176.36 target

Chevron (CVX) continues capturing market attention as shares advanced 1.3% to $186.47 during Friday’s opening session — approaching the 52-week peak of $187.90 and generating discussion among professional analysts and individual investors alike.

Chevron Corporation, CVX

During a recent broadcast segment, Jim Cramer advised a viewer to maintain their CVX holdings. “I think it can go up a lot,” Cramer stated, emphasizing the dividend returns and what he characterized as Chevron’s “consistency.”

Cramer additionally mentioned Chevron’s Venezuelan operations as a potential catalyst, calling it a “kicker” that could drive future appreciation.

Quarterly Dividend Sees Increase

Chevron announced an increase to its quarterly dividend distribution, moving from $1.71 to $1.78 per share. On an annualized basis, this equals $7.12 — translating to approximately 3.8% yield. Shareholders registered by February 17 will receive payment on March 10.

The current dividend payout ratio stands at 106.91%, indicating the company distributes more in dividends than current earnings support — a metric investors should monitor carefully.

Revenue Underperforms While EPS Exceeds Expectations

Chevron’s January 30 quarterly earnings revealed EPS of $1.52, topping the $1.44 analyst consensus. Revenue figures told a different story at $45.79 billion, falling short of the anticipated $48.18 billion and representing a 10.2% year-over-year decline.

The company reported a net margin of 6.51% alongside a 7.89% return on equity. Wall Street projects full-year EPS of $10.79.

The year-over-year earnings comparison presents challenges — Chevron delivered $2.06 EPS during the equivalent quarter in the prior year.

Institutional Investment Expands

Multiple institutional stakeholders expanded their CVX allocations during the third quarter. Trivium Point Advisory LLC increased holdings by 73.9%, acquiring an additional 6,855 units for a total of 16,131 valued near $2.5 million.

American Century Companies led institutional buying activity, adding 810,086 units — representing a 45.6% increase — elevating their total position to 2,586,278 shares worth approximately $401.6 million.

Berkshire Hathaway similarly increased its Chevron stake in the period following Warren Buffett’s leadership transition.

Institutional ownership currently represents 72.42% of total shares.

Insider Activity Shows Significant Selling

While institutions accumulated shares, company insiders moved in the opposite direction. During the most recent quarter, insiders sold 534,898 units totaling $89.5 million.

Vice Chairman Mark A. Nelson divested 45,800 units on February 2 at an average price of $174.17, reducing his stake by 86.48%. Insider Andrew Benjamin Walz sold 1,463 units on February 18 at $183.83 per share.

Company insiders collectively own merely 0.21% of Chevron.

Wall Street Analyst Perspectives

Analyst viewpoints vary considerably. UBS maintains a buy recommendation with a $212 price objective. BMO Capital Markets reiterated an outperform rating with a $190 target. JPMorgan elevated CVX from neutral to overweight, assigning a $176 target.

Conversely, one discounted cash flow analysis suggested CVX trades at approximately 30% above fair value, placing intrinsic worth around $126.

The aggregate rating from 24 analysts points to “Hold” with a mean price target of $176.36 — beneath current trading levels.

CVX’s 50-day moving average registers at $169.52 while the 200-day average sits at $159.57. The stock carries a $372 billion market capitalization, trades at a PE ratio of 28, and exhibits a beta of 0.70.

TLDR:

• Polymarket recorded $478M in notional daily trading volume on the day of the U.S.-Israel joint strikes on Iran.
  
• The politics category alone reached $220M, making up 46.2% of Polymarket’s total notional trading volume that day.
  
• Polymarket Builders also achieved a single-day trading volume record high during the same historic trading session.
  
• Bubblemaps flagged six insider-linked wallets that collectively profited approximately $1.2M from conflict-related prediction bets.
  

Geopolitical tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran pushed Polymarket to record-breaking territory in a single trading session.

The decentralized prediction market platform recorded $478 million in notional daily trading volume on the day joint strikes were carried out.

The politics category alone reached $220 million, marking its own all-time high. Bubblemaps also flagged at least six insider-linked wallets that collectively profited around $1.2 million from conflict-related bets.

Conflict-Driven Activity Sends Polymarket Volume to Historic Levels

Geopolitical tensions have long influenced financial markets, and prediction platforms are no exception. The day U.S. and Israeli forces carried out joint strikes on Iran, traders flooded Polymarket with positions tied to conflict outcomes. The resulting activity broke every previous daily volume record the platform had recorded.

Crypto analyst @defioasis published on-chain data capturing the full scope of that trading session. According to the data, the politics sector contributed $220 million, accounting for 46.2% of Polymarket’s total notional volume that day. Polymarket Builders also set its own single-day trading record during the same period.

The data from @defioasis showed how rapidly capital moved in response to breaking geopolitical developments. Traders positioned themselves across a range of conflict-related markets as the news of the strikes spread.

The surge reflected a growing pattern of real-world events directly shaping decentralized prediction market behavior.

Insider Wallet Activity Raises Concerns Around Conflict Bets

As trading volume climbed, Bubblemaps identified unusual wallet activity connected to the Iran-related prediction markets.

At least six addresses with insider-linked characteristics were traced through blockchain analytics tools. Those wallets reportedly generated approximately $1.2 million in combined profits from the conflict bets.

The timing of the wallet movements drew attention across the crypto community. Positions appeared to have been opened in proximity to the strikes, prompting questions about early access to information.

Bubblemaps used on-chain transparency data to surface the connection between those addresses and the relevant markets.

Decentralized prediction markets operate without traditional gatekeepers, which creates both openness and risk. The pseudonymous nature of blockchain activity makes it harder to enforce accountability, though it does not hide patterns entirely. Analytics firms like Bubblemaps remain essential for tracking and publicly reporting such activity.

Geopolitical tensions surrounding the U.S.-Israel strike on Iran proved to be a defining catalyst for Polymarket. The platform processed close to half a billion dollars in notional trades within one 24-hour window.

The event further cemented how global conflicts continue to drive participation and trading volume across decentralized prediction markets.

Key Takeaways

• Military strikes by the U.S. and Israel resulted in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei, sparking concerns about major disruptions to global oil transit routes.
• The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued warnings against vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage handling 20–26% of worldwide crude shipments and substantial LNG flows.
• Market analysts project Brent crude prices approaching $100 per barrel; extended hostilities may contribute 0.6–0.7 percentage points to worldwide inflation metrics.
• Shipping companies including Frontline and DHT Holdings have experienced substantial gains this year, with charter rates already reaching levels not seen in years.
• Bitcoin declined 2% following the strikes and has shed more than 25% over two months, while traditional safe-haven assets like gold, U.S. Treasuries, and the Swiss franc attract investor capital.

Saturday’s coordinated military operations by Washington and Tel Aviv against Iranian targets claimed the life of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, immediately rippling through global commodity, equity, and cryptocurrency markets.

Following the offensive, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued navigation warnings for the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway serves as the transit corridor for approximately 26% of the world’s crude oil and 23% of global liquefied natural gas shipments.

Brent crude closed Friday’s session near $73 per barrel, having already climbed roughly 20% year-to-date. Market watchers anticipate further price appreciation when trading resumes Sunday evening.

Barclays analysts project Brent could touch $100 per barrel as traders assess potential supply chain interruptions. Capital Economics suggests even a limited confrontation could drive prices toward the $80 threshold.

Iran’s daily production stands at approximately 3.3 to 3.5 million barrels, representing roughly 3% of worldwide output. The nation’s primary export facility at Kharg Island processes nearly 90% of these shipments, and multiple explosions have been documented in that region.

Qatar’s entire LNG export volume, accounting for about 20% of global liquefied natural gas trade, must also pass through the Strait. No viable alternative shipping lanes exist. A blockade would compel Asian consumers to enter bidding wars with European buyers for available U.S. supply on spot markets.

Goldman Sachs modeling indicates that removing one million barrels daily of Iranian exports for twelve months would elevate prices approximately $8 per barrel. Rystad Energy forecasts price increases between $10 and $15 per barrel should the conflict expand.

Maritime Transport Equities Rally on Rate Forecasts

Shipping sector stocks have already incorporated significant risk premium. Frontline shares have climbed 74% in 2026, DHT Holdings has advanced 60%, and Ardmore Shipping has posted 55% gains. By comparison, the S&P 500 has risen just 0.5% during the identical timeframe.

Frontline disclosed that it secured 92% of its first-quarter VLCC spot capacity at an average daily rate of $107,100. Evercore analyst Jonathan Chappell elevated his price objective on the stock from $31 to $42.

During the 1991 Gulf War, very large crude carrier charter rates surged more than 40%. Throughout the 2003 Iraq invasion, rates climbed as much as 304%.

Cryptocurrency Weakens as Traditional Safe Havens Strengthen

Bitcoin dropped 2% Saturday and has now surrendered more than a quarter of its value across the previous two months. Market analysts indicate it has lost its status as a haven during crisis periods.

Gold has appreciated 22% in 2026 and continues attracting capital inflows. The Swiss franc has strengthened 3% versus the dollar year-to-date. U.S. Treasury yields have been declining in recent trading sessions.

The VIX volatility gauge has increased by one-third this year. Several major oil producers and commodity trading firms have already halted crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

TLDR:

• Eleven Democratic senators urged DOJ and Treasury to investigate Binance over alleged Iran sanctions violations in 2026.
  
• Binance compliance staff reportedly uncovered $1.7 billion in digital assets flowing to Iranian-linked terror entities.
  
• Senators raised concerns that Binance may have retaliated against compliance staff who flagged the Iran-linked transactions.
  
• Democratic senators flagged Binance’s ties to Trump’s USD1 stablecoin as a potential conflict in any federal enforcement review.

Democratic senators are calling on federal authorities to investigate Binance over potential Iran sanctions breaches.

On February 27, 2026, eleven members of the Senate Banking Committee sent a formal letter to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Attorney General Pam Bondi.

The lawmakers cited recent reports of alleged illicit financial activity on the exchange. They warned that national security could be at risk if Binance is once again flouting U.S. sanctions law.

Senators Cite Evidence of $1.7 Billion Flowing to Iranian Entities

The letter detailed troubling findings uncovered by Binance’s own compliance personnel last year. According to the senators, staff discovered that $1.7 billion in digital assets had flowed to Iranian-linked entities.

Those entities reportedly include the Iran-backed Houthis and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. In one instance, a Binance vendor allegedly directed $1.2 billion in funds toward Iran-linked accounts.

The senators opened their letter with a direct call to action. “We urge you to conduct a prompt, comprehensive review of sanctions compliance on the platform to ensure that it is not once again violating the law and threatening U.S. national security,” they wrote.

The senators also noted that Iranians had reportedly accessed more than 1,500 accounts on the platform. There were further indications the exchange may have been used to help Russia evade U.S. sanctions as well.

These findings led the Democratic senators to question whether Binance is honoring the terms of its 2023 settlement.

That agreement followed Binance’s guilty plea on charges that included money laundering and sanctions violations.

Making matters worse, Binance reportedly fired the compliance staff who uncovered the Iranian transactions. The senators called this a potential act of retaliation against employees performing their duties.

The Democratic senators argued that these developments point to a broad breakdown in compliance at Binance. Under its 2023 agreements, Binance committed to controls that would “enable it to clearly and effectively identify and interdict transactions and activity that may be prohibited by OFAC.”

Senators said the alleged $1.7 billion in illicit flows suggests those controls are not functioning. Law enforcement sources also reportedly said Binance has grown less cooperative with information requests.

Democratic Senators Flag Trump Family Ties as Conflict of Interest

Beyond the sanctions concerns, the Democratic senators raised a separate but related issue. They pointed to deepening financial ties between Binance and President Trump’s family as a potential conflict.

The exchange has repeatedly promoted USD1, the stablecoin launched by the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial. Binance also helped develop the technology behind USD1 and accepted a $2 billion investment in the token.

The senators were direct in addressing those ties. “We recognize, of course, that Binance has made numerous business decisions that have helped President Trump and his family profit from their crypto ventures,” they wrote.

They also referenced Trump’s pardon of Changpeng Zhao, Binance’s founder and former chief executive. Zhao had pleaded guilty to failing to establish an effective anti-money laundering program before receiving the presidential pardon.

The senators stressed that the stakes extend beyond politics. “If Binance has begun to ignore its illicit finance obligations, the risks are grave and nonpartisan,” they stated in the letter.

Ranking Member Elizabeth Warren led the effort alongside ten Democratic colleagues on the Banking Committee. The group set a deadline of March 13, 2026, for a formal response outlining steps taken to address their concerns.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin said a long-discussed plan to make the blockchain network’s accounts more flexible may finally be close to implementation.

On February 28, Buterin outlined a design built around account abstraction that could become possible with the network’s Hegota fork.

How EIP-8141 Could Make Ethereum Wallets More Flexible

Buterin described EIP-8141 as the proposal’s centerpiece, an omnibus design that addresses the remaining challenges of account abstraction.

The goal is to transform wallets into programmable accounts that can batch actions, change signature schemes, and support multisig controls. This shift also enables the separation of transaction authorization from the underlying gas payment.

Most Ethereum users today rely on externally owned accounts (EOAs), which they control with private keys and typically fund with ETH to pay gas fees.

Under Buterin’s proposed design, transactions would be organized as “Frame Transactions.”

This is a structure that breaks activity into a series of calls that can validate a sender, authorize a gas payer, and execute one or more actions.

“The concept, ‘Frame Transactions’, is about as simple as you can get while still being highly general purpose. A transaction is N calls, which can read each other’s calldata, and which have the ability to authorize a sender and authorize a gas payer. At the protocol layer, that’s it,” he explained.

In practical terms, a transaction could include separate frames for validation and execution. For more complex flows, a deployment frame could be added for accounts that do not yet exist on-chain.

It also means that batch operations, such as approving and then spending a token in a single atomic sequence, could become easier to execute as a first-class transaction type.

Buterin highlighted the role of “paymaster” contracts, which could allow users to pay transaction fees in assets other than ETH. These contracts would also enable applications to sponsor those user fees directly.

In one example, he described a paymaster that could accept RAI, provide ETH for gas in real time, and refund unused value at the end of the transaction.

He argued that the approach would preserve the functionality of existing sponsored transaction systems while reducing reliance on intermediaries.

“Intermediary minimization is a core principle of non-ugly cypherpunk ethereum: maximize what you can do even if all the world’s infrastructure except the ethereum chain itself goes down,” he explained.

Meanwhile, the proposal also has implications for privacy tools on the blockchain network.

Buterin said paymasters could be designed to verify zero-knowledge proofs and pay gas if those proofs are valid.

He also pointed to “2D nonces” as a way for an individual account to receive transactions in parallel from many users. This could potentially improve how privacy-preserving systems operate.

However, Buterin noted that the design’s primary challenge may lie in the mempool—where transactions propagate before entering a block—rather than at the blockchain level itself.

According to him, some highly complex validation logic may be unsafe to broadcast widely. This means that the initial mempool rules would likely need to be conservative before expanding over time.

He added that account abstraction would complement FOCIL, a separate proposal aimed at improving inclusion guarantees for transactions.

Buterin pointed out that developers are also discussing compatibility for existing accounts to ensure they can eventually access the new framework.

This inclusion would enable traditional wallets to benefit from advanced features such as batch operations and gas sponsorship.

Hyperliquid emerged as a rare winner amid the sudden escalation of military hostilities in the Middle East between the US, Israel, and Iran.

This weekend, the exchange saw a surge in commodities-focused derivatives trading, with open interest for these assets reaching an all-time high of more than $1.1 billion.

Hyperliquid Rallies 13% as US and Iran Tensions Roil Markets

The uptrend can be attributed to traders seeking to hedge geopolitical risks while traditional financial markets were closed for the weekend.

As a result, market participants pivoted to the blockchain-based platform to trade synthetic perpetual futures contracts tied to oil, gold, silver, and US equities.

This continuous trading was facilitated by HyperLiquid Improvement Proposal 3, or HIP-3, an upgrade implemented last year.

HIP-3 allows developers to deploy permissionless perpetual futures markets for any asset with a reliable public price feed, provided the creator stakes 500,000 of the platform’s native HYPE tokens.

Driven by the weekend volatility, HIP-3’s open interest eclipsed its previous record of $1.06 billion.

Overall, the broader Hyperliquid platform has accumulated nearly $5.5 billion in total open interest, securing an estimated $1.06 million in protocol earnings over a 24-hour period, according to data from DeFiLlama.

Additionally, data provider Messari reported that HIP-3 markets have generated $4.4 billion in weekend trading volume in February alone.

Gold pricing shifts onto blockchain networks once US futures markets close for the weekend, according to Iggy Ioppe, former chief investment officer at Credit Suisse and now chief investment officer (CIO) at liquidity infrastructure firm Theo.

CME gold futures stop trading at 5:00 pm ET on Friday and reopen at 6:00 pm ET on Sunday. During that interval, regulated futures markets are inactive and most remaining activity occurs through private over-the-counter deals in Asia that are not publicly reported. As a result, tokenized gold assets such as PAX Gold (PAXG) and Tether Gold (XAUt) become the only continuously available trading venues.

“In terms of publicly visible price formation, onchain markets are responsible for virtually 100% of weekend price discovery,” Ioppe told Cointelegraph.

He added that when futures trading resumes, prices often align with movements that already occurred on blockchain markets. “We are seeing weekend moves reflected when CME reopens,” he said.

Related: Bitcoin price slump versus gold’s gains highlights evolving crypto market

Tokenized gold market cap jumps to $4.4 billion

The shift comes amid rising trading volume for tokenized gold. As Cointelegraph reported, tokenized gold expanded rapidly over the past year, adding nearly $2.8 billion in value and growing from about $1.6 billion to $4.4 billion in market capitalization.

The sector’s market cap rose 177%, far outpacing the broader gold market and most major spot gold ETFs, while the number of holders nearly tripled with more than 115,000 new wallets. The growth represented roughly a quarter of all net inflows into the real-world asset (RWA) sector and exceeded the combined expansion of tokenized stocks, corporate bonds and non-US Treasurys.

Trading activity also surged, with tokenized gold recording about $178 billion in 2025 volume and peaking above $126 billion in the fourth quarter. That level would make it the second-largest gold investment product globally by trading volume after SPDR Gold Shares.

Ioppe said that market makers and cross-venue liquidity providers dominate participation, arbitraging price differences between digital and traditional markets. Crypto-native macro traders also play a major role, using tokenized gold not only for exposure to bullion prices but also for collateral, hedging and yield strategies during periods of geopolitical or macroeconomic uncertainty.

“Some institutions are monitoring weekend onchain gold markets, particularly macro and cross-asset desks that track gap risk ahead of the CME reopen,” he said, noting that most institutions treat the signal as informational rather than a basis for active positioning.

Related: Middle East tensions boost gold as investors seek safe havens

24/7 tokenized gold trading lets investors manage risk

Tokenized gold markets allow for continuous trading, which offers a practical risk management advantage. If a geopolitical event occurs while futures markets are closed, traditional participants cannot adjust positions. Tokenized markets allow immediate rebalancing.

On Saturday, tokenized gold rallied as geopolitical tensions escalated following US and Israeli strikes on Iran, with investors moving into XAUT and PAXG while Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) fell. XAUT briefly climbed above $5,450 and PAXG neared $5,536 during the day before trimming gains, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

However, Ioppe said adoption still faces obstacles. Liquidity remains smaller than in futures or exchange-traded funds (ETFs), making large trades harder to execute without moving prices. “Regulatory clarity is improving, but fragmentation across jurisdictions slows institutional deployment. Custody, accounting, and capital rules still vary widely,” he said.

For now, tokenized gold is expected to operate alongside traditional products rather than replace them. “The most likely near-term evolution is that of tokenized and traditional markets existing in parallel, each serving a different function,” Ioppe concluded.

Magazine: Bitcoin’s ‘biggest bull catalyst’ would be Saylor’s liquidation — Santiment founder