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Will Bitcoin price drop to $65,000 as bearish forces come into play?

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BTC/USDT 24-hour price chart.

Bitcoin price risks a drop back to the $65,000 zone as bearish macroeconomic forces continue to impact investor risk sentiment.

Summary

  • Bitcoin price failed to hold the $70,000 support on Thursday.
  • Investor demand for risk assets dropped amid surging oil prices and rising U.S. Treasury yields.
  • The latest U.S. CPI print came in line with market expectations, which can force the Fed to keep interest rates elevated for a longer period.

According to data from crypto.news, Bitcoin (BTC) price fell 4.8% over the past 7 days, dropping below the $70,000 support level. Trading at $69,385 at the time of writing, the bellwether was nearly 29% below its year-to-date high of around $97,500 and 45% from its all-time high.

Currently, Bitcoin faces a number of geopolitical and macroeconomic risks that could push its price towards $65,000 and subsequently the $60,000 mark.

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First, Iran has announced that it would change its retaliation strategy in the Middle East from reciprocal hits to continuous strikes against the interests of its adversaries, a move intended to punish Israel and the United States.

Additionally, Tehran said that it would continue blocking all ships carrying oil to Israel and the United States from using the Strait of Hormuz, where millions of barrels of crude pass through daily.

Through these measures, Iran aims to push crude oil prices to as high as $200, a move that could ultimately lead to higher inflation throughout the world, with the greatest impact coming on the U.S., which remains sensitive to energy price shocks. This escalating tension in the Middle East has historically driven investors away from volatile assets like cryptocurrency and into traditional safe havens.

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Second, Wednesday’s U.S. core CPI data for February came in line with market expectations, essentially forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain elevated interest rates for a longer period. 

Meanwhile, if the war continues to drive up energy costs, it could fuel inflation further and dampen any hopes for a pivot in monetary policy this year. Higher interest rates typically sap the liquidity necessary for speculative assets to thrive.

According to the CME FedWatch data, there is a 99.3% chance that the interest rates will remain unchanged during the March FOMC meeting, with the current target rate sitting at 350 to 375 basis points. Odds of an April rate cut meanwhile stood at just 10.9% when writing, down sharply from 21% one month earlier.

It should also be noted that February inflation data came without fully accounting for the recent impact of surging oil prices and hence does not reflect the hawkish stance the Fed will be forced to adopt over the coming weeks.

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Third, US yields on the 10-year Treasury have continued to go higher as bond markets react to these inflationary pressures. These yields recently rose by several basis points, making the guaranteed returns of government debt far more attractive than the risks associated with digital currencies.

Bitcoin price analysis

In terms of technicals, Bitcoin has once again fallen below the $70,000 mark. Traders are closely watching the $68,500 support level, but persistent selling pressure suggests that the path of least resistance remains to the downside with a potential retracement to the $65,000 support zone until global stability returns.

BTC/USDT 24-hour price chart.
BTC/USDT 24-hour price chart — March 12 | Source: crypto.news

On the 4-hour chart, momentum indicators suggest that the bearish structure has already started building. The MACD lines are close to confirming a bearish crossover, while the RSI is trending downwards after hitting overbought levels.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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The tokenized crude project to start pilot testing soon for 2027 debut

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The tokenized crude project to start pilot testing soon for 2027 debut

Oil is the single most vital commodity, wielding an overbearing influence on all corners of the global economy. This reality was made painfully clear by recent war-led oil price spikes above $100 a barrel and the resulting financial market jitters.

Yet, for all its immense importance, the machinery powering global oil trading largely remains archaic. It is dominated by massive legacy exchanges, extensive paperwork, and high barriers to entry that can deter all but the largest players.

Baron Lamarre, co-founder of the International Digital Exchange (INDEX) — a blockchain-based platform for tokenized oil, and identified as a former head of trading at Petronas — aims to revolutionize this.

His vision is to put oil on the blockchain, with each LITRO token representing 1 litre of real crude, targeting an early 2027 debut. The token’s value will be indexed to popular global oil benchmarks such as Brent and West Texas Intermediate.

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“Litro’s testnet and product demo roll out March through May 2026, with official launch in January 2027,” Lamarre told CoinDesk in an interview, highlighting the project’s clear developmental timeline.

This project stands out for its ambition to remain strictly grounded in the real world. In contrast, much of the wider digital asset market remains flooded with speculative tokens bearing little connection to Main Street.

Even the burgeoning Real World Asset (RWA) market, which reportedly stands at over $25 billion today, is predominantly driven by the tokenization of financial instruments such as government bonds.

It is specifically designed to modernize what it describes as the $6 trillion global oil market’s outdated, paper-based systems. Traditional commodity deals often drag through long supply chains involving multiple banks and clearinghouses, frequently delaying settlements by up to 90 days and locking up billions in vital capital.

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This issue is especially acute now, with conflicts in the Middle East disrupting supply chains and spiking market volatility. The current system, dominated by traditional exchanges like CME and ICE, often leaves a broad range of smaller and mid-sized investors sidelined due to high capital requirements and a lack of direct access.

Verified reserves

LITRO’s tokenization aims to resolve this by layering verified digital reserves on the blockchain, promising faster, more accessible, and more transparent trading.

Here’s how it works: Oil producers pledge their certified reserves to the INDEX platform. These reserves are then meticulously verified by independent auditors for quantity, authenticity, and ownership of the crude before any LITRO tokens are minted. While the physical oil remains securely in custody at the producer’s facility, the legal title to that oil is digitally assigned to the INDEX system.

“Only audited and verified reserves can be tokenized,” Lamarre explained, emphasizing that the tokens are minted on a strict 1:1 basis with physical oil volume. He added that the project is currently being built on Arbitrum, an Ethereum scaling solution, while maintaining compatibility with any EVM-compatible blockchain.

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Physical Redemption

A key appeal for traders, Lamarre asserts, is LITRO’s 24/7 liquidity and the promise of direct redemption. Holders of the token can redeem it for cash or, in theory, for physical crude oil delivery.

“Redemption for physical oil is part of the design,” Lamarre said.

The platform boasts a sophisticated “smart logistics routing system” to facilitate this. This system is designed to match oil grades, arrange vessels and terminals, issue electronic bills of lading and certificates, and coordinate delivery.

This means that, eventually, token holders can take physical custody of the barrels they own digitally. Its intelligence layer connects digital tokens to physical delivery mechanisms, leveraging IoT sensors, AIS vessel tracking, and AI-driven optimization to automate the entire redemption-to-delivery process.

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Early Stages

The project is still in its early stages. Lamarre noted that INDEX is currently in discussions with Capital Union Bank to join as a banking partner. Other investor and partner deals are expected to be finalized once the Minimum Viable Product (MVP1) is completed by the end of March 2026.

If Lamarre and his team successfully execute this ambitious vision, it could mark a significant and necessary shift in how global energy markets operate, transitioning from the closed silos of traditional finance to transparent, 24/7 blockchain rails.

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Asia’s biggest bitcoin buyer now wants to build the BTC ecosystem

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Asia’s biggest bitcoin buyer now wants to build the BTC ecosystem

Metaplanet, Asia’s largest publicly listed bitcoin holder, isn’t just buying bitcoin anymore but wants to build the ecosystem around it.

The Tokyo-listed company, which holds 35,102 BTC, announced Thursday the creation of Metaplanet Ventures K.K., a wholly-owned subsidiary that will invest in companies building regulated bitcoin financial infrastructure in Japan.

The total investment over the next two to three years is expected to be approximately JPY (¥) 4 billion (roughly $27 million), funded by cash flows from Metaplanet’s existing bitcoin income business.

The subsidiary will operate across three programs. The first is a venture investment arm targeting seed through growth-stage companies across lending, collateral, payments, Lightning, stablecoin technology, custody, compliance, derivatives, tokenization, and investment products.

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The focus is Japan first, with a selective global mandate to bring talent and technology into the Japanese market.

The second is an incubator for early-stage bitcoin and digital asset infrastructure companies in Japan, providing seed capital and access to Metaplanet’s distribution channels, platforms, and investor network.

The third is a grants program for bitcoin open-source developers, educators, researchers, and community organizers in Japan, aimed at strengthening the domestic talent pipeline.

The first investment is already lined up, with Metaplanet Ventures is making a ¥400 million (roughly $2.7 million) investment into JPYC Inc., a yen-denominated stablecoin issuer, scheduled for April through a loan from the parent company.

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The strategic rationale ties directly to Japan’s regulatory timeline.

The country expects to reclassify bitcoin as a regulated financial asset by January 2028, which Metaplanet argues will require massive domestic infrastructure build-out across custody, settlement, compliance, lending, and payment rails that doesn’t yet exist at scale.

As such, Metaplanet was careful to note that its “core focus remains the accumulation and long term holding of Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset, unchanged.”

Meanwhile, the company said it expects no material impact on consolidated financial results for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026.

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NZDD Stablecoin Is Not a Financial Product

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Crypto Breaking News

New Zealand’s financial regulator has designated a local currency-pegged stablecoin, NZDD, as not a financial product—a distinction that a leading law firm says could sharpen regulatory clarity for stablecoins and fintech pilots. The Financial Markets Authority (FMA) published the designation in a designations notice tied to its fintech sandbox initiative. The authority stressed that NZDD’s economic substance is that it is not a debt security, not an investment, and that holders do not receive income, interest, or other gains. While the move is product-specific, it signals a pragmatic approach to financial innovation that seeks to balance market access with investor protections.

Key takeaways

  • The designation confirms NZDD is not treated as a debt security or an investment under current rules, setting a clearer expectation for issuers and users of currency-pegged stablecoins in New Zealand.
  • The ruling stems from the FMA’s fintech sandbox, illustrating how live testing of digital assets can inform regulatory design without broad-brush sweeping conclusions.
  • Officials caution that the designation applies to the specific product and version of NZDD described in the notice and does not constitute a blanket policy for all stablecoins.
  • The FMA intends to broaden the sandbox with an on‑ramp or restricted license for FinTech firms, a step that could ease market access while preserving protective guardrails that can be adjusted as firms mature.
  • Market context signals notable interest in New Zealand’s crypto space: Protocol Theory estimated that about half of the country’s population is either crypto investors or considering investing, while DataCube Research projects the local crypto market could reach roughly $254 billion in value.

Tickers mentioned:

Market context: The designation arrives amid a wider regulatory push to balance innovation with safeguards as the crypto sector matures. Regulators in multiple jurisdictions are carving clearer pathways for digital assets through sandbox tests and phased licensing regimes, with IMF guidelines on stablecoin risks serving as references for policy discussions and industry practices.

Sentiment: Neutral

Price impact: Neutral. The article describes regulatory actions and sandbox plans rather than market moves or price data.

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Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. The development represents regulatory clarity and potential for future licensing, but no immediate market positioning is warranted from these announcements alone.

Market context: The NZDD designation comes as New Zealand trial sites a broader push to align financial innovation with consumer protections. Regulators in various jurisdictions are testing frameworks that support fintech and tokenized assets while delineating when traditional securities rules apply. IMF guidelines on stablecoin risks are among the reference points cited by policymakers and industry observers as they weigh designations, licensing paths, and cross-border standards. For readers following this space, the New Zealand case adds to a growing mosaic of how regulators distinguish stablecoins from conventional debt or equity instruments without stifling innovation.

Why it matters

The FMA’s designation of NZDD as not a financial product marks a deliberate regulatory stance that could influence how issuers approach digital assets within New Zealand’s borders. By clarifying that NZDD is not a debt security and does not promise income, the regulator provides a concrete example of how a currency-pegged stablecoin might be classified in a way that does not automatically trigger securities laws. This distinction matters for issuers seeking to pilot new digital instruments within a governed framework, as it can reduce uncertainty around product design, disclosures, and investor protections required in the sandbox environment.

Law firm MinterEllisonRuddWatts, which advised the NZDD issuer in relation to its sandbox participation, described the move as an important step toward broader regulatory certainty for stablecoins in the country. The firm stressed that the designation is not a general ruling on all stablecoins but a product-specific decision that may serve as a reference point for future iterations and other token designs. The acknowledgment that policy can evolve in parallel with technological innovation underscores a regulated but adaptive approach—one that seeks to embrace fintech growth while maintaining guardrails to guard consumer interests.

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Beyond the legal classification, the FMA’s sandbox expansion signals a practical pathway for market participants. Officials have indicated plans to introduce an on‑ramp or restricted license for FinTech firms as part of the sandbox, with the aim of providing regulated access to the market under targeted restrictions that could be gradually relaxed as a company demonstrates capability and compliance. This incremental licensing approach could lower the barrier to entry for crypto-enabled services and related fintech ventures, enabling more experimentation under supervision rather than in a purely speculative, unregulated milieu. The move also aligns with international norms seen in other jurisdictions that favor controlled innovation over outright prohibition, a stance that could attract startups seeking a compliant foothold in the Asia-Pacific region.

Public interest in New Zealand’s crypto ecosystem remains high. A 2024 Protocol Theory report noted that nearly half of the country’s roughly 5.2 million residents are already crypto investors or actively considering investment, underscoring the market’s potential. DataCube Research projects the domestic crypto market could reach about $254 billion in value, a horizon that reinforces why regulatory clarity matters for participants ranging from exchanges and wallet providers to developers building compliant tokenized financial products. All of these threads—the clarity on NZDD, the sandbox expansion, and the broader market milieu—illustrate a regulatory environment that seeks to foster responsible innovation while acknowledging the need for ongoing policy refinement.

As New Zealand continues to refine its approach, observers will be watching for how NZDD’s designation influences subsequent product classifications and licensing decisions within the sandbox. Will other stablecoins or tokenized instruments gain similar determinations, and how quickly will the on‑ramp licenses be rolled out to accommodate growing interest? The answers will shape the next phase of crypto and fintech activity in the country, potentially setting a model for other small economies navigating the balance between innovation and oversight.

What to watch next

  • Details of the on-ramp or restricted FinTech license as part of the FMA sandbox expansion, including eligibility criteria and any phased rollout timeline.
  • Whether additional stablecoins or digital assets will receive product-specific designations under the sandbox framework.
  • Any further guidance from the FMA or related agencies on the regulatory treatment of crypto assets and fintech innovations beyond NZDD.
  • Updates to IMF-stated guidelines or international standards that could influence New Zealand’s ongoing regulatory evolution.

Sources & verification

  • FMA stablecoin designation notice detailing NZDD’s classification and the sandbox link: https://www.fma.govt.nz/business/legislation/secondary-legislation/designations/financial-markets-conduct-ecdd-holdings-limited-stablecoin-designation-notice-2026/
  • MinterEllisonRuddWatts article on the first-of-its-kind designation: https://www.minterellison.co.nz/insights/first-of-its-kind-designation-nzdd-stablecoin-declared-not-a-financial-product
  • FMA expands sandbox page announcing broader licensing options: https://www.fma.govt.nz/news/all-releases/media-releases/fma-expands-sandbox/
  • IMF guidelines referenced in industry discussion: https://cointelegraph.com/news/imf-guidelines-stablecoin-risks-regulations
  • Protocol Theory 2024 report on NZ crypto investor prevalence: https://hub.easycrypto.com/news/the-next-wave-of-crypto-users-in-new-zealand#:~:text=New%20research%20by%20Protocol%20Theory,ownership%20for%20building%20financial%20freedom.
  • DataCube Research projection for New Zealand’s crypto market: https://www.datacuberesearch.com/new-zealand-fintech-cryptocurrency-market

Regulatory clarity and market momentum in New Zealand

The case of NZDD demonstrates how regulators can pursue a nuanced recognition of new financial instruments without stifling experimentation. By drawing a clear line between what constitutes a financial product and what does not, the FMA provides a navigable path for issuers, developers, and investors who are eager to participate in a digitized financial landscape. The sandbox framework, with its potential on‑ramp licenses, offers a controlled environment in which firms can test products, governance structures, and consumer protections before expanding into broader markets. In a world where stablecoins and tokenized assets attract increasing policy attention, New Zealand’s approach adds to a growing set of case studies that illustrate how a thoughtful, phased regulatory model can support innovation while maintaining systemic safeguards.

What it means for the wider crypto ecosystem

For developers, exchanges, and fintechs operating in or eyeing New Zealand, the designation and the sandbox expansion could lower friction for compliant product launches and pilot programs. For investors, it signals a regulatory environment that distinguishes between stablecoins with real-world utility and instruments that fall under traditional securities rules. And for policymakers, it offers a live example of how to balance innovation with investor protection, a balance that many jurisdictions continue to strive for as the crypto economy matures and scales. As international dialogue around stablecoins evolves, New Zealand’s measured, evidence-based approach may serve as a practical blueprint for other regulators seeking to modernize financial legislation without compromising safety and resilience.

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Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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New Zealand Rules NZDD Stablecoin Not a Financial Product

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New Zealand Rules NZDD Stablecoin Not a Financial Product

New Zealand’s financial regulator has ruled that a local currency-tied stablecoin, NZDD, isn’t a financial product, a move a local law firm says is an important step toward regulatory clarity.

The Financial Markets Authority (FMA) said on Wednesday that the new designation for the stablecoin pegged to the New Zealand dollar resulted directly from a financial technology sandbox pilot the regulator is running.

“The economic substance of the NZDD stablecoin is that it is not a debt security, as the NZDD stablecoin is not an investment, and no income, interest or other gain is paid to the NZDD stablecoin holder,” the FMA said.

Law firm pegs designation as a step in the right direction

New Zealand law firm MinterEllisonRuddWatts, which said it acted for NZDD issuer ECDD Holdings in relation to its participation in the FMA sandbox, called the new designation an important step toward regulatory certainty for stablecoins in the country.

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“However, it is important to note that the designation relates to a specific product and version of a stablecoin, being the NZDD in the form described in the designation notice and does not constitute a general determination as to the regulatory treatment of all stablecoins,” the firm said.