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Wintermute warns AI-fueled liquidity drain is suffocating Bitcoin

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Wintermute warns AI-fueled liquidity drain is suffocating Bitcoin

Wintermute says AI stocks are siphoning liquidity from crypto, leaving Bitcoin stuck in high‑volatility, low‑spot demand price discovery as U.S. selling and ETF outflows bite.

Bitcoin’s latest lurch lower is no mystery: liquidity is bleeding into the AI trade, and the crypto market is being left to dance on thinning ice.

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Macro rotation and Wintermute’s warning

Market maker Wintermute notes that Bitcoin “briefly fell to $60,000 last Monday, erasing all gains since Trump’s election,” as spot flows reveal “significant structural pressure.” The firm highlights that the “Coinbase premium has consistently been in a discount state… since last December, indicating ongoing selling pressure from the U.S.,” while internal OTC data shows “U.S. counterparties were the main sellers throughout the week,” a trend “amplified by continuous ETF fund redemptions.”

Wintermute argues that “over the past few months, AI‑related assets have been continuously absorbing available market funds, crowding out the allocation space for other asset classes,” with crypto underperformance largely explained by “the rotation of funds towards the AI sector.”

High‑volatility price discovery

Last week’s action resembled a “surrender‑style clearing, with volatility soaring and buying support emerging at $60,000,” Wintermute observes, adding that “in an environment where spot trading remains relatively low, leverage has become the dominant factor in price fluctuations.” Without a rebound in open interest, “it will be difficult for the market to form sustained follow‑through on either the long or short side.”

A “true structural recovery” now hinges on “a return of spot demand,” a positive Coinbase premium, reversing ETF flows, and stabilizing basis, the firm says. Until then, Bitcoin is “entering a phase of high volatility and choppy price discovery,” with direction “increasingly dominated by institutional fund flows from ETFs and derivatives channels” as retail attention drifts elsewhere.

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Related coverage on structural selling and ETF flows can be found via ChainCatcher’s analysis of Bitcoin slipping below key moving averages, BlackRock’s renewed transfers to Coinbase Prime, and Hyperscale Data’s growing BTC treasury holdings.

Spot benchmarks and AI‑crypto pulse

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades near $68,700, down less than 1% over 24 hours, on roughly $46B in volume, while total market value hovers around $1.37T. Ethereum’s market cap stands near $242B, with about $28.6B changing hands in the last day.

Within AI‑linked crypto, the Artificial Superintelligence Alliance’s FET token changes hands around $0.16, on roughly $39M in 24‑hour volume. Render (RENDER) trades close to $1.31, with about $35.8M in daily turnover. Akash Network (AKT) is near $0.32, with a market cap just under $92M and 24‑hour volume around $2.8M. SingularityNET (AGIX) sits near $0.07, on modest volume of around $41K.

Wintermute’s bottom line is blunt: “For crypto assets to outperform again, AI trading needs to cool down first.” Until that rotation snaps back, Bitcoin’s next act will be written in volatility, not in trend.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Buy Signal Points to 220% Upside Despite Near-Term Risk

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Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Adoption, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Bitcoin Adoption

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading below $69,000 on Tuesday, confirming the view that price consolidation is the most likely course over the short term. The sell-off to $60,000 and the subsequent recovery to $72,000 resulted in many BTC price indicators falling into what analysts believe to be a deep value zone, but will buyers reach the same conclusion?

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin’s realized price bands have aligned with a long-term accumulation zone that preceded new BTC highs. 

  • Power Law quantile models place BTC near the lower 15% of its long-term log-log price corridor, a zone that has consistently appeared after prior cycle peaks.

  • Valuation and momentum metrics are clustering around the $40,000–$55,000 region, marking a statistically significant structural support area.

BTC realized price bands outline long-term DCA zones

Bitcoin’s realized price and shifted realized price have successfully identified long-term accumulation zones since 2015.

Realized price reflects the average cost basis of all BTC last moved onchain whereas the shifted realized price smoothens this metric forward in time, capturing deeper-value zones during stronger drawdowns.

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Currently, Bitcoin’s realized price sits near $55,000, while the shifted realized price is around $42,000.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Adoption, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Bitcoin Adoption
BTC monthly price zones based on realized price bands. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Multiple years of historical data show that rallies following the re-test of these zones delivered big gains, as shown in the chart above. While returns have diminished over time, the structure still implies upside potential of 170% to 220%, aligning with targets above $150,000 in the next bullish period.

Bitcoin has typically consolidated for six to eight months after testing the realized price bands before resuming an upward trend and hitting new highs.

Power law model signals relative undervaluation for BTC

Popularized by BTC researcher Giovanni Santostasi, the updated power law quantile model places BTC near the 14th percentile of its long-term log-log price corridor, suggesting temporary undervaluation following a cycle peak that fell short of the model’s projected $210,000 high in 2025.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Adoption, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Bitcoin Adoption
Bitcoin projections based on the power law quantile model. Source: X

Confluence between price trading near realized price bands and lower power law percentiles has preceded major recoveries.

The model’s fifth (0.05) percentile previously marked long-term cycle floors and now sits between $50,000 and $62,000, overlapping with the accumulation range defined by the realized price bands.

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Related: Bitcoin holders sell 245K BTC in tight macro conditions: Did the market bottom?

Analysts say Bitcoin may sell off before the next big rally occurs

Bitcoin investor Jelle noted that BTC price is currently down roughly 31% from its first weekly RSI 37 break, a level that has preceded cycle bottoms since 2014.

The drawdowns ranged between 17% and 55%, with the recent cycles bottoming closer to 40–43%, implying potential downside toward $52,000 before a durable low forms.

Crypto analyst Sherlock highlighted a breakdown in the BTC/Gold (XAU) ratio below the 15–16 level, a signal that previously marked transitions into a bearish period.

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Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Adoption, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Bitcoin Adoption
BTC/Gold ratio analysis by Sherlock. Source: X

Based on this framework, Sherlock warns BTC may still see a deeper retracement toward the $38,000 to $40,000 region if history repeats.

Related: Bitcoin price punishes traders as 24-hour crypto liquidations pass $250M