The global financial markets saw a notable shift as President Donald Trump declared the U.S. has effectively “won” the conflict with Iran, signaling a potential end to the 10-day military engagement known as Operation Epic Fury.

The Geopolitical pivot: From “excursion” to victory

In a series of rapid-fire statements from Kentucky and Florida, President Trump characterized the war as a “short-term excursion” that achieved its primary objectives within the “first hour.” He claimed that roughly 80% of Iran’s missile launchers and much of its naval power have been neutralized.

For crypto markets, the rhetoric marks a critical transition.

While the President noted that forces would remain to ensure stability, the shift from active escalation to a “victory” narrative has triggered a classic “risk-on” rally.

Investors, who had previously fled to safe havens like gold and the U.S. Dollar, are now rotating back into high-growth assets as the threat of a prolonged energy chokepoint in the Strait of Hormuz appears to recede.

Crypto market rebounds “Peace Trade”

The crypto market acted as a primary barometer for this shifting sentiment. After sliding into the mid-$60,000 range earlier in the week due to war-induced panic, Bitcoin (BTC) staged a powerful recovery, jumping over 5% to reclaim the $70,000 psychological barrier.

Ethereum and major altcoins followed suit, with total crypto market capitalization rebounding to $2.45 trillion.

If the de-escalation holds, the “uncertainty overhang” that has suppressed prices since late February could vanish, potentially setting the stage for a run toward new all-time highs.

What the BTC chart says next

The BTC/USDT 1D chart highlights a significant technical tug-of-war. Despite the recent bounce, Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase following its February peak.

Immediate Resistance: The $72,500 level remains the “boss” of this range. A daily candle close above this mark, supported by high volume, would confirm a breakout.

Support Zones: The $67,500 to $68,000 zone has proven resilient. As long as BTC stays above this floor, the bullish structure remains intact.

The BBP Indicator: A close look at the BBP indicator at the bottom of the chart shows that the histogram has already flipped into green territory. This is a significant bullish signal, indicating that the “Bulls” have successfully overpowered the “Bears” for the time being.

While Trump’s declaration has provided the spark, the sustainability of this rally depends on whether the “victory” translates into a formal ceasefire and stabilized oil prices. If geopolitical tensions continue to cool, the “Trump Peace Trade” could be the catalyst that finally pushes Bitcoin into the elusive six-figure territory.

Analysis found that Bitcoin fell about 56% during midterm years on average, while moving closely with declines in US equities.

US midterm election cycles have historically been associated with increased volatility across financial markets, with the S&P 500 experiencing average peak-to-trough drawdowns of about 16%, according to a new report published by Binance Research.

It stated that midterm years have typically produced the weakest performance within the four-year US presidential cycle, as political uncertainty surrounding elections weighs on investor sentiment. In seven of the past ten midterm cycles, equity markets recorded corrections of more than 10% as political risk continued to influence market behavior.

Political Uncertainty Shakes Markets

Digital assets have shown a similar pattern during these periods. According to the analysis, Bitcoin has historically moved in close correlation with equities during midterm cycles. Since 2014, which the report considers the first meaningful cycle due to earlier liquidity limitations in crypto markets, BTC has recorded an average decline of about 56% during midterm election years across the three completed cycles.

Despite this historical weakness during such years, the research revealed that there is a consistent pattern of strong market performance once political uncertainty clears. Data cited in the report show that the 12 months following US midterm elections have produced positive returns for the S&P 500 in every instance since 1939. Over that period, the index has delivered an average gain of about 19% in the year following the vote.

Bitcoin has also recorded gains in all three post-midterm years on record, and the cryptocurrency delivered an average return of roughly 54% during those periods. The findings reveal that markets often recover once election outcomes become clear and investors gain greater visibility into the political and policy landscape.

The report frames the pattern as a recurring cycle in which election-year volatility is followed by a period of stronger performance for risk assets as uncertainty fades and capital returns to the market.

The analysis comes at a time when global markets are already facing major volatility driven by geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic concerns. Escalating developments in the Middle East, including disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz, have raised fears of supply shocks in global energy markets and contributed to sharp swings in oil prices.

You may also like:

Next Catalyst

At the same time, all eyes are on the upcoming US inflation indicators, including Consumer Price Index and Personal Consumption Expenditures data, which could influence expectations around future monetary policy decisions.

Binance Research said that the current market conditions are also shaped by elevated leverage among investors and negative gamma positioning among market makers in both equity and cryptocurrency markets. These factors can amplify price movements when markets react to geopolitical or macroeconomic developments.

While the near-term risks remain, periods of heightened political and macro uncertainty have often been followed by stronger performance once major sources of uncertainty are resolved.

Victims of a Chinese investment fraud are challenging a United Kingdom proposal to compensate them through a Chinese redress scheme, arguing the plan could leave British authorities holding much of the upside from roughly 61,000 Bitcoin seized in a money-laundering investigation.

According to the Financial Times, citing court documents, the dispute has moved into the UK High Court as groups representing victims seek to recover funds linked to the cryptocurrency seized by police in London. The Bitcoin (BTC) haul is now worth about 3.2 billion pounds ($4.3 billion) after rising sharply in value since the assets were confiscated.

Law firm Candey, which represents about 5,700 victims, said the proposed compensation arrangement may not guarantee fair restitution. The fraud scheme itself reportedly affected more than 128,000 investors in China, according to court documents cited by the FT.

The case highlights growing legal questions around crypto seizures, where digital assets can appreciate significantly between confiscation and restitution. The dispute stems from a Chinese investment fraud scheme that ran between 2014 and 2017 and defrauded investors before proceeds were converted into BTC and moved abroad.