Crypto World
XRP ETFs could pull $8B if CLARITY passes: the math
A major bank projects XRP ETFs could draw $4 billion to $8 billion in their first year if the CLARITY Act passes, three to six times what they have managed so far. The number rests on a specific argument about who is buying XRP, who is not, and a wall of supply at $1.45.
Summary
- Standard Chartered’s $8 billion XRP ETF forecast depends on CLARITY unlocking institutional buyers.
- XRP’s $1.45 break-even wall is the mechanical ceiling that has capped rallies all year.
- Retail ETF demand has defended the price but has not been large enough to break the wall.
- The upside case depends on legislation passing and institutional inflows arriving quickly.
Standard Chartered, one of the largest banks in the world, has projected that XRP exchange-traded funds could attract $4 billion to $8 billion in inflows in their first year if the CLARITY Act passes. That is three to six times the roughly $1.44 billion that XRP ETFs have pulled in since their launch in November 2025.
It is a large number, large enough to sound like the usual analyst optimism that surrounds every crypto asset. But the projection is not a vibe.
It rests on a specific, mechanical argument about who has been buying XRP, who has been sitting on the sidelines, and a concrete wall of sell orders that has capped the price all year. Understanding that argument is the only way to judge whether $8 billion is realistic or fantasy.
The math matters because XRP has spent 2026 in a frustrating place: down roughly 40% on the year, trading around $1.13 to $1.18, stuck about 70% below its all-time high of $3.65, despite a steady drip of regulatory wins and ETF launches. The question every XRP holder is asking is why the asset will not move.
Standard Chartered’s projection contains the answer, because the same forces that explain the stuck price explain the potential for an $8 billion unlock. This piece works through the math: the break-even wall at $1.45, why retail ETF demand can defend the price but not break it, who the buyers waiting on CLARITY actually are, and where XRP could trade by the fourth quarter under different outcomes.
The wall at $1.45
The single most important number in the XRP story is not the price; it is the wall of supply sitting just above it, and the wall is specific enough to quantify.
Roughly 1.16 billion XRP sit as a wall of sell orders clustered around the $1.45 zone. This is the break-even level for a large cohort of buyers from the last cycle, people who bought XRP near $1.45, watched it fall, and want to sell to get out flat the moment the price returns to where they bought.
Every time XRP rallies toward $1.45, it runs into this accumulated supply. Holders who have waited through the drawdown are eager to exit at break-even, selling into any strength and capping the advance.
This is why XRP keeps stalling at the same level, why rallies on regulatory news, the commodity classification in March, and the committee vote in May spiked toward $1.45 to $1.52 and then faded. The wall is real, it is large, and it is the mechanical reason the price has a ceiling.
A wall of break-even sellers is a specific kind of resistance, and it behaves predictably. It is not driven by sentiment or fear; it is driven by a cohort of holders with a fixed price target, the level at which they break even, who will keep selling until that supply is exhausted.
The only way through such a wall is demand large enough to absorb all 1.16 billion XRP of it and keep buying. Retail-sized flows nibble at the wall but cannot break it.
What breaks a wall this size is institutional money, large, sustained, and indifferent to the break-even level because it is buying for reasons that have nothing to do with last cycle’s entry price. Whether that institutional money shows up is the entire question, and it is where CLARITY comes in.
Why retail demand defends but cannot break
This is the dynamic that explains the stuck price, and it is the key to the whole projection. The buying that has happened so far has been the wrong size to break the wall, and the buying that could break it has been waiting.
XRP ETFs have already drawn about $1.44 billion since launching in November 2025, and that demand has done something real: it has defended the price, providing a floor of steady buying that has kept XRP from collapsing through the drawdown. But it has not broken the price higher, because it has been retail-sized, large enough to absorb ordinary selling and hold a floor, but not large enough to overwhelm the 1.16 billion XRP wall at $1.45 and clear it.
The result is a standoff: retail ETF demand on one side defending a floor, the break-even wall on the other side capping the ceiling, and XRP trapped in the range between them. That is exactly the sideways, frustrating action that has defined the year.
Recent flow data show the point clearly. XRP ETF inflows have been strong enough to beat larger assets in some weeks, but weekly strength is different from the kind of institutional wave needed to clear a billion-token sell wall.
The buyers who could break the wall are different in kind, not just degree. They are the large institutions, the pension funds and asset managers, the entities that move capital in the size required to absorb a billion-token wall and keep buying.
And they have been explicit about why they are on the sidelines: they treat XRP as a legal question mark, an asset whose regulatory status, while improved by the agency-level commodity classification, has not been settled into law. An executive-agency classification can be reversed by the next administration with a memo; a statute cannot.
That is why institutions wait for a statute. Institutions managing fiduciary money do not commit at scale to an asset whose legal status could be reversed by a future regulator, and so they wait for the certainty that only legislation provides.
The proof of this is in who has been buying and who has not. Retail-sized ETF demand has shown up and defended the price, while the institutional money large enough to break it has stayed out, waiting for the law.
That is the standoff CLARITY would resolve.
The math behind $8 billion
Now the projection itself, because the $8 billion figure is a direct consequence of the dynamic above, not an arbitrary target.
Standard Chartered’s argument runs like this. The roughly $1.44 billion XRP ETFs have drawn so far came almost entirely from retail and smaller investors, because the large institutions have stayed out pending legal certainty.
If CLARITY passes and codifies XRP’s commodity status into law, the legal question mark that has kept institutions out is removed. The pool of eligible buyers expands dramatically to include the pension funds, asset managers, and institutional allocators who could not commit before.
That expansion is what produces the $4 billion to $8 billion first-year projection: not a multiplication of the existing retail demand, but the addition of an entirely new and far larger class of buyer that the law would unlock. Three to six times the current inflows is what you get when you add institutional capital to a flow that until now has been almost purely retail.
The mechanical beauty of the argument is how the pieces fit. The institutional money that CLARITY would unlock is precisely the large, sustained, break-even-indifferent buying required to overwhelm the 1.16 billion XRP wall at $1.45.
So CLARITY does not just add demand; it adds exactly the kind of demand that can break the ceiling that has capped XRP all year. The $8 billion is not only a flow projection; it is the force that would clear the wall and let XRP re-rate higher.
The same institutional buyers who would drive the inflows are the ones large enough to absorb the break-even supply and keep going. The projection and the price-ceiling problem are two descriptions of the same event: institutions arriving in size once the law lets them.
That is also the utility side of the same CLARITY catalyst, because the same statute that could unlock ETF flows would also give institutions more confidence in XRP-linked settlement infrastructure.
What history warns
An honest account has to weigh the projection against the cautionary pattern in XRP’s own history, because the asset has a habit of disappointing on supposedly bullish catalysts.
The warning is that XRP catalysts have repeatedly arrived already priced in. When the SEC case against Ripple settled in August 2025, a major positive event, XRP had already peaked a month earlier, and long-term holders used the resolution as an exit, selling into the news rather than buying.
The pattern recurred through 2026. The March commodity classification spiked XRP from $1.44 to $1.54 within hours, then faded as the break-even wall capped it.
The May committee vote pushed it from $1.42 to $1.52, then faded the same way. The lesson is that XRP has a tendency to run up in anticipation of a catalyst and then sell off when it arrives, because the buyers who wanted to position have already done so and the break-even sellers are waiting.
A passage of CLARITY could, in principle, follow the same script: a run-up, then a sell-the-news fade if the institutional inflows do not materialize fast enough to overwhelm the supply.
This is why the projection needs to be held with both conviction and caution. The $8 billion argument is mechanically sound, the institutional money is real and waiting, and the math of adding it to a retail-only flow produces large numbers.
But the history says the inflows have to actually show up, in size and quickly, to break the pattern of catalysts arriving pre-priced. A projection of institutional demand is not the same as institutional demand in hand.
The honest position is that the $8 billion is realistic if the institutions arrive as the argument predicts. It is also the one scenario worth wanting confirmed by actual inflows before leaning on it.
The math is strong; the execution risk is that XRP does what it has done before and sells the news.
Where XRP trades by Q4
Pulling the analysis together, the projection implies a set of scenarios for where XRP could trade by the fourth quarter, anchored to the current price near $1.13 to $1.18 and the dynamics above.
In the failure scenario, CLARITY stalls, no Senate vote happens before the August recess, and the catalyst that has been holding up the price fades. Fear of a multi-year delay creeps in, the break-even sellers keep capping any bounce, and XRP drifts back toward its lows for the year.
The $0.80 to $1.00 zone comes back into play, with the door open to lower if the broad market stays weak. That is the downside if the vote stalls, because the market would lose the one catalyst big enough to change the flow picture.
In the base case, a compromise comes together and CLARITY clears around late July or early August. Legal certainty begins removing the discount that has weighed on XRP, the $1.45 break-even wall starts to give way on rising volume, and a re-rating into the $1.60 to $2.20 range becomes realistic by the fourth quarter.
This is the outcome where the law passes and the institutional money begins to arrive, clearing the wall in an orderly way.
The strongest case requires more than the vote. If CLARITY passes, ETF inflows reaccelerate toward Standard Chartered’s billions-scale projection, and the Federal Reserve begins easing into the autumn, the money waiting on the sidelines would finally overwhelm the break-even sellers.
In that scenario, XRP could retest the $2.50 to $3.50 area, still short of the old $3.65 high. That is the scenario the $8 billion projection points toward, and it is also the one most dependent on multiple things going right at once: passage, then inflows, then a supportive macro.
The range across scenarios is wide because the outcome is binary on the legislation. From around $1.13 today, a failed vote points back toward $0.80 to $1.00, passage near the recess supports $1.60 to $2.20, and passage plus renewed inflows plus a softer Fed opens up $2.50 to $3.50.
Where XRP ends the year traces back to one thing this summer: whether the law passes and the institutions it would unlock actually arrive. That is the core of the longer-horizon outlook, where the next move depends less on retail enthusiasm than on whether institutions receive permanent legal cover.
What it means for investors
For anyone weighing XRP, the Standard Chartered projection is most useful not as a price target but as a map of the mechanism, and the mechanism is what to watch.
The $8 billion figure is worth less as a number to anchor on than as a description of how XRP could break its range: institutional money, unlocked by legal certainty, arriving in the size needed to clear the break-even wall. An investor watching XRP should track the pieces of that mechanism.
Those pieces are the progress of CLARITY through the Senate, the pace of ETF inflows and whether they show signs of shifting from retail to institutional scale, and the behavior of the price at the $1.45 wall. Those are the signals that the projection is or is not playing out.
The discipline is to treat $8 billion as the upside case that depends on a specific chain of events, not as a promise. Given XRP’s history of selling the news, the inflows should be confirmed rather than assumed.
That also means remembering why an ETF is access, not automatic demand. XRP ETFs opened the door, but the price only breaks if buyers large enough to clear the wall actually walk through.
The realistic framing is that XRP is a binary bet on a piece of legislation, with a clear mechanical upside if the bet wins and a clear downside if it loses. The break-even wall, the waiting institutions, and the $8 billion projection are all real, and together they make a coherent case that passage could drive a significant re-rating.
But the same analysis shows the downside if CLARITY fails: a drift back toward the year’s lows as the catalyst fades. An investor should size any XRP position to that binary reality, understanding that the upside depends on a law passing and the institutions it unlocks actually arriving, and that the history warns against assuming the catalyst will not be sold.
None of this is investment advice; it is the math behind a projection that is only as good as the events it depends on.
The number and the mechanism
Standard Chartered’s $8 billion projection sounds like analyst hype until you trace the math, and the math is sound.
XRP ETFs have drawn $1.44 billion almost entirely from retail, the large institutions have stayed out because XRP is a legal question mark, and CLARITY would remove that question mark. That would unlock exactly the institutional buying, three to six times the current flow, that could clear the 1.16 billion XRP wall at $1.45 and let the price re-rate.
The number is not a vibe; it is the consequence of who has been buying, who has not, and what would change if the law passed.
What the math cannot guarantee is that the institutions arrive on schedule. XRP has a history of selling its catalysts, running up before the news and fading after it, and a projection of institutional demand is not the same as institutional demand in hand.
The honest synthesis is that the $8 billion is realistic if CLARITY passes and the institutional money shows up as the argument predicts. This is the one scenario worth confirming with actual inflows before leaning on it.
From around $1.13 today, the year ends somewhere between $0.80 and $3.50 depending almost entirely on the law and what it unlocks. The wall at $1.45 is the obstacle, institutional money is the only thing big enough to break it, and CLARITY is the key that decides whether that money is allowed to arrive.
That, and not any single price target, is the math that matters.
Frequently asked questions
What did Standard Chartered project for XRP ETFs?
Standard Chartered projected that XRP exchange-traded funds could attract $4 billion to $8 billion in inflows in their first year if the CLARITY Act passes, three to six times the roughly $1.44 billion they have drawn since launching in November 2025. The projection rests on the argument that CLARITY would remove the legal uncertainty keeping large institutions out, unlocking a new and far larger class of buyer.
What is the $1.45 break-even wall?
Roughly 1.16 billion XRP sit as sell orders clustered around $1.45, the break-even level for a large group of buyers from the last cycle who bought near that price, watched it fall, and want to exit flat when it returns. Every rally toward $1.45 runs into this supply, which caps the price. It is the mechanical reason XRP keeps stalling at the same level despite regulatory wins, and clearing it requires demand large enough to absorb all of it.
Why has XRP’s price stayed stuck despite ETF inflows?
The roughly $1.44 billion in ETF inflows so far has been retail-sized, enough to defend a price floor but not to overwhelm the 1.16 billion XRP break-even wall at $1.45. This creates a standoff: retail demand holds the floor while the break-even sellers cap the ceiling, trapping XRP in a range. The buyers large enough to break the wall, big institutions, have stayed on the sidelines because they treat XRP as a legal question mark pending legislation.
Why would the CLARITY Act unlock institutional buying?
Institutions managing fiduciary money avoid assets whose legal status could be reversed. XRP currently has a commodity classification from agencies, but that can be undone by a future administration, while a statute cannot. CLARITY would codify XRP’s commodity status into law, removing the reversible-classification risk and expanding the pool of eligible buyers to include pension funds and asset managers who could not commit before. That is the demand that produces the $4 billion to $8 billion projection.
Where could XRP trade by the end of 2026?
From around $1.13 today, the scenarios are wide because the outcome is binary on the legislation. If CLARITY fails or stalls before the August recess, XRP could drift back toward $0.80 to $1.00. If it passes near the recess, a re-rating to $1.60 to $2.20 becomes realistic. If passage is followed by reaccelerating ETF inflows and a softer Federal Reserve, XRP could retest $2.50 to $3.50, still short of its $3.65 all-time high.
Is the $8 billion projection reliable?
The math is sound, but it depends on execution. The argument correctly identifies that institutional money is waiting on legal certainty and that CLARITY would unlock it. The risk is XRP’s history of selling its catalysts: major positive events like the August 2025 SEC settlement arrived already priced in, with holders exiting into the news. The $8 billion is realistic if institutions arrive in size and quickly after passage, but a projection of demand is not demand in hand, and the inflows should be confirmed rather than assumed.
As of June 18, 2026. Cryptocurrency markets and legislation are subject to change; verify current details before relying on this analysis. This article is information, not investment advice.
Paradigm, a crypto-focused venture capital firm co-founded by Matt Huang, said Wednesday it raised $1.2 billion for its fourth fund to invest across crypto, artificial intelligence and robotics. Huang announced the raise in a post on his official X account, writing the new vehicle will fund… Read the full story at The Defiant
Digital asset infrastructure provider BitGo and OTC Markets Group, the operator of regulated over-the-counter securities markets, plan to partner on digital asset trading and custody infrastructure for broker-dealers, a move that could expand institutional access to tokenized securities through existing market infrastructure.
The companies said Wednesday that the proposed alliance will serve more than 150 broker-dealers using OTC Link ATS, an alternative trading system regulated by the US Securities and Exchange Commission. If implemented, participating broker-dealers would be able to quote, trade and settle digital asset securities using the same electronic trading infrastructure they currently use for over-the-counter and US equity markets.
Under the proposal, BitGo Bank & Trust would act as the qualified custodian, while settlement would be facilitated through BitGo’s Go Network. The proposed framework is initially intended to support digital asset securities, with the potential to expand to tokenized assets and commodities as regulatory frameworks evolve.
The announcement comes as traditional financial institutions increasingly explore tokenized versions of real-world assets, while US regulators have moved toward establishing clearer rules for digital asset markets.
In December, BitGo received final approval from the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to operate as a federally chartered national trust bank, allowing it to provide qualified custody services under federal banking oversight.
Investors lifted OTC Markets Group’s stock price roughly 2.7% by midday on Wednesday, to $53.50 a share on thin volume.
Related: SoFi taps BitGo to provide infrastructure for bank-issued stablecoin
Why broker-dealers matter for tokenization
Broker-dealers could play a major role in the transition to tokenized securities because they already operate within established regulatory and market frameworks. By integrating digital asset trading and custody into existing infrastructure, the BitGo-OTC Markets alliance could reduce operational barriers for broker-dealers looking to offer tokenized securities without requiring them to adopt entirely new crypto-native systems.
The proposed alliance comes as the market for tokenized securities continues to expand. Analysts at Bernstein have projected that the value of tokenized real-world assets could reach up to $4 trillion by 2030, driven by broader adoption across equities, commodities, and other financial assets.
The announcement also follows similar efforts by companies including Securitize and Cantor Fitzgerald to bring tokenization to capital markets, including initial public offerings and follow-on equity offerings.
Bernstein analysts identified tokenization and prediction markets as the next assets “battleground” for exchanges and brokers. Source: Bernstein
Related: Tradable’s $1B Stellar deal adds to institutional tokenization boom
A group of Democrat Senators said in a statement late Wednesday that the bill still fell “short” of where it needed to be to get their support, but that they would keep working on it with Republicans. Senator Elizabeth Warren, the top Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, argued Wednesday that the policy as written would let Trump continue his crypto businesses largely untouched, and any improper activity would be ignored by his loyal Department of Justice and then legally fenced off from prosecution once he leaves office.
Other outstanding issues
Beyond ethics, lawmakers may continue to negotiate over illicit finance provisions, Lummis said.
“We think we’ve landed in a good place,” she said, because the effort addresses the Bank Secrecy Act, money-laundering protections, sanction coverage for exchanges and decentralized finance (DeFi).
Some of the new additions were made at the request of law enforcement, such as a provision addressing crypto automated teller machine (ATM) fraud.
There is also a safe harbor for crypto platforms to freeze funds if they suspect the assets are tied to suspicious transactions, particularly if those companies are cooperating with law enforcement, she said.
The text also includes a provision saying it is the “sense of Congress” that at least two of the commissioners on the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission would be nominated in consultation with the minority party. Right now, neither agency has any Democratic commissioners, with the SEC helmed by three Republicans, while the CFTC just has a single commissioner running the agency.
Bitcoin has returned to the $65,000 range, but the recovery is struggling to develop into a wider rally. The asset traded near $65,975 on Wednesday after briefly crossing $66,000, its highest level since early June.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $203.2 million in net inflows on Tuesday, marking six consecutive positive days. However, those inflows remain small compared with the combined $6.9 billion withdrawn during May and June.
The main obstacle is no longer limited to the crypto market. Bitcoin now faces pressure from an AI investment boom that is influencing inflation, interest rates, bond yields and competition for investor capital.
The AI Boom Is Keeping Inflation Alive
The Federal Reserve directly linked some of the recent inflation pressure to artificial intelligence investment in the minutes of its June meeting.
Officials said strong demand for data centers, electricity and high-tech equipment was pushing up prices. They also warned that AI investment could keep economic growth above its sustainable rate, making inflation more persistent.
The latest corporate results show the scale of that demand.
Alphabet raised its expected 2026 capital spending to between $195 billion and $205 billion after Google Cloud revenue jumped 82% in the latest quarter.
Microsoft expects to spend around $190 billion this calendar year, including roughly $25 billion caused by higher component prices.
Meanwhile, Nvidia reported that data-center revenue rose 92% year-on-year to $75.2 billion in its latest quarter. The figures show that companies are still competing heavily for chips, servers, energy, and construction capacity.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said high-tech equipment investment had grown by nearly 25% over the year to the first quarter. He said the central bank was watching the effect on inflation and employment.
Higher Rates Leave Less Money for Bitcoin
This matters for Bitcoin because persistent inflation reduces the Fed’s ability to lower interest rates.
US inflation eased in June as energy prices fell. However, consumer prices remained 3.5% higher than a year earlier, while producer prices were up 5.5%.
Both remain above levels that would give the Fed a clear reason to ease policy quickly.
Bond markets have responded. The two-year Treasury yield reached 4.301% on Wednesday, its highest level in more than a year, while the 10-year yield approached 4.66%.
Higher yields make government bonds and cash more attractive compared with volatile assets such as Bitcoin.
Nikita Zuborev, senior analyst at BestChange, described the same pressure.
“For now, an expensive dollar and high bond yields are pulling liquidity away from risky assets such as cryptocurrencies,” he said.
The dollar has also received support from higher rate expectations and renewed Middle East tensions. That creates another problem for Bitcoin, which often struggles when the dollar strengthens.
AI Stocks Are Competing for the Same Capital
Evgeny Popov, editor-in-chief at InvestFuture, said capital that previously might have entered crypto was moving toward companies linked to AI, chips, data centers and energy infrastructure.
“That is where investors currently see money, growth and a clearer story about the future,” Popov said.
Market performance broadly supports his argument. Semiconductor stocks remained up around 69% for 2026 as of this week, while Bitcoin was still down about 25% for the year.
Bitcoin has performed better than chip stocks during July, suggesting some capital may be rotating back, but the longer-term gap remains wide.
Bitcoin may need more than several days of ETF inflows to break out of the $60,000 – $70,000 zone. A stronger move would likely require lower inflation, falling bond yields, a less hawkish Fed and sustained institutional demand.
The Fed’s next decision is due on July 29. Until then, Bitcoin remains caught between improving ETF flows and an AI investment cycle that is keeping money expensive.
The post Why Bitcoin Is Stuck Near $65,000 as AI Fuels Inflation appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Robinhood Chain's onchain activity surged this week as a memecoin frenzy, a Pump.fun integration and a defecting Solana app converged on the barely week-old network — even as its largest single inflow traced to a stablecoin deposit rather than the meme trade. Cumulative addresses on the… Read the full story at The Defiant
Given the popularity of some cryptocurrency projects, they tend to be targeted by bad actors trying to exploit either the network behind them or vulnerable and unsuspecting users for their coins.
A recent post on X outlined a potential threat for some Pi Network users (referred to as Pioneers) and urged immediate action from the Core Team.
Pioneers, Beware
In a post titled ‘strange scam activity reported involving a Pi Wallet,’ the user Rizo outlined someone else’s issues in which the third party’s three-year lockup period for Pi coins finally came to an end. When they went to migrate the 143 tokens, it displayed that the wallet balance remained at 0. Moreover, they found a large number of failed transactions.
Rizo was quick to flag the suspicious activity and believes the solution for this would be the implementation of 2FA or “another strong authentication method to become mandatory for Pi Wallets.” Moreover, they asked the Core Team behind the project to investigate the matter and strengthen the overall wallet security to protect users.
It’s worth noting that this is far from the first instance of suspicious activity not only in the Pi Network ecosystem but overall in crypto. As such, many teams, including Pi’s, have issued consistent warnings over the past few years. In one of the posts published by the Core Team, they outlined several steps users can undertake to ensure higher protection levels against potential scams or fraud.
Critical Stage of Development
In bear market times in which the project faces intense pressure online while the native token plunges to new depths, a large part of the community behind Pi Network has started to question the overall direction. To address this, Daniel Carter, an X user with over 20,000 followers, said he works as a Senior Technical Engineer at Pi and has stayed with the project for a decade.
After working on R&D at Pi, he is currently responsible for ecosystem review and compliance. He believes Pi Network is now at a “critical stage of its development, and maintaining close communication with the community is more important than ever.” This is something that has been missing lately, according to Pioneers.
Nevertheless, most of the comments below the post were skeptical, as some even questioned whether Carter indeed has a role at Pi Network.
The post Pi Network Warning: Strange Scam Activity Leaves Pioneer Wallet at Zero appeared first on CryptoPotato.
A cryptocurrency-aligned political action committee (PAC) affiliate is spending heavily in a Michigan Democratic primary that will decide who advances to the November general election. According to Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings posted as of Tuesday, Protect Progress PAC has poured more than $986,000 into ads backing Rep. Shri Thanedar while also funding messaging against his challenger, Donavan McKinney, ahead of an Aug. 4 primary.
The spending comes at a moment when crypto industry-linked political groups are working to shape which candidates reach Congress. The Michigan race is one of several contests referenced in recent FEC disclosures showing continued efforts by Fairshake and related entities to influence elections on “pro-crypto” policy priorities.
Key takeaways
- Protect Progress PAC reported spending over $986,000 on ads supporting Shri Thanedar and opposing Donavan McKinney ahead of Michigan’s 13th district Democratic primary on Aug. 4.
- The PAC’s approach mirrors its 2024 spending, when it backed Thanedar with about $1 million before he won both the primary and the general election.
- Fairshake and affiliates have reported a sizable political “war chest,” with filings indicating $191 million available to influence key races.
- In addition to Michigan, Protect Progress PAC activity cited in FEC data includes Arizona media buys supporting Rep. Greg Stanton.
- Other Fairshake-linked groups referenced in FEC reports are also active in Washington primaries, including a media spend to support a candidate described as publicly supportive of crypto.
Protect Progress steps up in Michigan’s 13th district
FEC paperwork filed by Protect Progress PAC shows that, as of Tuesday, the committee had spent more than $986,000 on advertising tied to Michigan’s 13th congressional district. The ads were described in filings as supporting Democratic incumbent Shri Thanedar and opposing his Democratic primary challenger Donavan McKinney.
Those expenditures were reported roughly two weeks before the scheduled primary on Aug. 4. The timing is notable because primary races often hinge on relatively short bursts of messaging that can define a candidate’s perceived record and priorities for voters before ballots are cast.
Protect Progress’ media push in Michigan also reflects its earlier investment in Thanedar’s political trajectory. In 2024, the PAC reportedly spent about $1 million supporting Thanedar. That year, he won the Democratic primary with 54.9% of the vote and then carried the general election with 68.6% against Republican and other opponents.
Crypto policy backdrop: votes, investments, and campaign narratives
The Michigan ads and counter-messaging are unfolding against a record that has been used by both sides to frame the race as a referendum on crypto-related legislation and financial ties.
The article notes that Thanedar previously supported multiple crypto-related bills while serving in the House, including the CLARITY Act, the GENIUS Act, and the Promoting Innovation in Blockchain Development Act. Those policy positions have been a consistent element in how “pro-crypto” advocacy groups portray candidate alignment.
For his part, McKinney has not been described in the filing coverage as having made prominent public statements directly supporting or opposing digital assets before this campaign. By contrast, the coverage describes Thanedar as having invested campaign funds into crypto companies while in office, citing reporting that he lost more than $600,000 in the second quarter of 2026 after investing $3.7 million of campaign funds into crypto-related companies.
McKinney’s response to the Protect Progress spending was pointed. In a Tuesday statement referenced in the coverage, he argued that “the crypto lobby” was effectively backing his opponent, accusing it of seeking to stop his movement in the race.
Election influence spreads beyond Michigan
The Michigan primary is only one piece of a larger map of political spending. FEC reporting referenced in the coverage indicates that Fairshake and affiliated entities have reported having $191 million available in a “war chest” intended for election influence across multiple key races.
That broad capacity is linked to a network of PACs connected to the crypto industry’s political engagement. The coverage points to other groups including Fellowship, which is described as backed by Cantor Fitzgerald and Anchorage Digital, and the Blockchain Leadership Fund, described as a hybrid PAC backed by Anchorage and Chainlink Labs.
Even within the same Protect Progress ecosystem, the cited FEC activity goes past Michigan. According to the article, Protect Progress PAC also spent more than $100,000 on media supporting Representative Greg Stanton’s reelection bid in Arizona. It further notes that Stanton voted for CLARITY and GENIUS while in the House and that he won his Tuesday primary in Arizona’s 4th district with 65% of the vote.
In Washington, the primary calendar listed for Aug. 4 is also tied to possible Fairshake-affiliated involvement. FEC filings cited in the coverage indicate that the Defend American Jobs PAC spent more than $65,000 on media to support Amanda McKinney, a Republican candidate running for Washington’s 4th congressional district. The reporting also notes that she has made at least one public statement supporting crypto.
The article further states that Representative Dan Newhouse announced in 2025 that he would not seek reelection in that district, underscoring why outside spending could matter more in open-seat or competitive races.
What to watch between now and the primary
With Protect Progress’ reported advertising push arriving just weeks ahead of Michigan’s Aug. 4 primary, the most immediate signal for voters and campaign strategists will be how quickly counter-arguments—particularly around crypto policy alignment and campaign-finance-related claims—gain traction in the same short window.
Readers following crypto-linked political spending should also watch whether Fairshake-affiliated committees continue to shift focus across multiple states on the same calendar, and whether forthcoming reporting from election filings adds clarity on how far these media buys extend as the primaries near.
Zapper, the DeFi portfolio tracker and dashboard, will shut down entirely on August 3rd, co-founder and CEO Seb Audet said in a post on X Wednesday. The company's website, mobile apps and API services will all go offline. Audet said the team "evaluated a number of different options, pursued some to… Read the full story at The Defiant
MARA Holdings said Thursday it signed a definitive agreement with HIF to acquire a powered land site of more than 1,200 acres in Matagorda County, Texas, in a post on its official X account. The site will carry up to 1 gigawatt of grid capacity by October 2027 and up to 2 gigawatts by April 2028,… Read the full story at The Defiant
Bitcoin is approaching a key technical level after recording its third consecutive weekly gain. The asset closed last week at around $65,000, rising 1.7% over the period and extending its three-week advance to 11.5%. It also remained above the $61,360 demand zone despite broader market volatility.
Following this sustained recovery, attention has shifted to the $68,000 resistance level. According to the recent Bitfinex report, this level could determine Bitcoin’s next short-term direction. The analysts identified a key reaction zone between $67,900 and $68,300, where the short-term holder realized price and the second-quarter opening level have converged.
Why the $68,000 Level Matters
Bitfinex analysts say many holders who bought near the key reaction range may choose to sell once they recover their original positions. That behavior has created selling pressure during similar retests, making the coming move important for Bitcoin’s short-term direction.
A decisive breakout above the resistance zone would require sustained buying in the spot market rather than speculative activity. Otherwise, BTC could face another rejection and revisit lower support levels established during the recent recovery.
Current institutional demand may play a key role in determining that outcome. Notably, U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have shifted from sustained outflows to a more balanced flow pattern. However, Bitfinex analysts say fresh demand still depends heavily on BlackRock’s IBIT fund.
A More Supportive Macro Backdrop
Bitcoin has also captured a larger share of total cryptocurrency spot trading volume in recent sessions. Analysts said this trend appears to reflect a defensive move away from altcoins rather than a broad return of confidence across the digital asset market.
Beyond crypto market dynamics, the broader macroeconomic environment has also become more supportive. June inflation in the United States recorded its first negative monthly reading in six years. Lower energy prices contributed to the decline, while weakness in the housing sector continued through lower building permits and higher inventories.
Despite those signs of slowing activity, consumer spending and business investment have remained resilient. That combination has kept second-quarter economic growth estimates near 2.5%, creating a missed outlook for the Federal Reserve while supporting risk assets like Bitcoin.
The post Bitcoin’s Next Big Move Hinges on Break Above This Key Level: Bitfinex appeared first on CryptoPotato.
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