Crypto World
XRP ETFs could pull $8B if CLARITY passes: the math
A major bank projects XRP ETFs could draw $4 billion to $8 billion in their first year if the CLARITY Act passes, three to six times what they have managed so far. The number rests on a specific argument about who is buying XRP, who is not, and a wall of supply at $1.45.
Summary
- Standard Chartered’s $8 billion XRP ETF forecast depends on CLARITY unlocking institutional buyers.
- XRP’s $1.45 break-even wall is the mechanical ceiling that has capped rallies all year.
- Retail ETF demand has defended the price but has not been large enough to break the wall.
- The upside case depends on legislation passing and institutional inflows arriving quickly.
Standard Chartered, one of the largest banks in the world, has projected that XRP exchange-traded funds could attract $4 billion to $8 billion in inflows in their first year if the CLARITY Act passes. That is three to six times the roughly $1.44 billion that XRP ETFs have pulled in since their launch in November 2025.
It is a large number, large enough to sound like the usual analyst optimism that surrounds every crypto asset. But the projection is not a vibe.
It rests on a specific, mechanical argument about who has been buying XRP, who has been sitting on the sidelines, and a concrete wall of sell orders that has capped the price all year. Understanding that argument is the only way to judge whether $8 billion is realistic or fantasy.
The math matters because XRP has spent 2026 in a frustrating place: down roughly 40% on the year, trading around $1.13 to $1.18, stuck about 70% below its all-time high of $3.65, despite a steady drip of regulatory wins and ETF launches. The question every XRP holder is asking is why the asset will not move.
Standard Chartered’s projection contains the answer, because the same forces that explain the stuck price explain the potential for an $8 billion unlock. This piece works through the math: the break-even wall at $1.45, why retail ETF demand can defend the price but not break it, who the buyers waiting on CLARITY actually are, and where XRP could trade by the fourth quarter under different outcomes.
The wall at $1.45
The single most important number in the XRP story is not the price; it is the wall of supply sitting just above it, and the wall is specific enough to quantify.
Roughly 1.16 billion XRP sit as a wall of sell orders clustered around the $1.45 zone. This is the break-even level for a large cohort of buyers from the last cycle, people who bought XRP near $1.45, watched it fall, and want to sell to get out flat the moment the price returns to where they bought.
Every time XRP rallies toward $1.45, it runs into this accumulated supply. Holders who have waited through the drawdown are eager to exit at break-even, selling into any strength and capping the advance.
This is why XRP keeps stalling at the same level, why rallies on regulatory news, the commodity classification in March, and the committee vote in May spiked toward $1.45 to $1.52 and then faded. The wall is real, it is large, and it is the mechanical reason the price has a ceiling.
A wall of break-even sellers is a specific kind of resistance, and it behaves predictably. It is not driven by sentiment or fear; it is driven by a cohort of holders with a fixed price target, the level at which they break even, who will keep selling until that supply is exhausted.
The only way through such a wall is demand large enough to absorb all 1.16 billion XRP of it and keep buying. Retail-sized flows nibble at the wall but cannot break it.
What breaks a wall this size is institutional money, large, sustained, and indifferent to the break-even level because it is buying for reasons that have nothing to do with last cycle’s entry price. Whether that institutional money shows up is the entire question, and it is where CLARITY comes in.
Why retail demand defends but cannot break
This is the dynamic that explains the stuck price, and it is the key to the whole projection. The buying that has happened so far has been the wrong size to break the wall, and the buying that could break it has been waiting.
XRP ETFs have already drawn about $1.44 billion since launching in November 2025, and that demand has done something real: it has defended the price, providing a floor of steady buying that has kept XRP from collapsing through the drawdown. But it has not broken the price higher, because it has been retail-sized, large enough to absorb ordinary selling and hold a floor, but not large enough to overwhelm the 1.16 billion XRP wall at $1.45 and clear it.
The result is a standoff: retail ETF demand on one side defending a floor, the break-even wall on the other side capping the ceiling, and XRP trapped in the range between them. That is exactly the sideways, frustrating action that has defined the year.
Recent flow data show the point clearly. XRP ETF inflows have been strong enough to beat larger assets in some weeks, but weekly strength is different from the kind of institutional wave needed to clear a billion-token sell wall.
The buyers who could break the wall are different in kind, not just degree. They are the large institutions, the pension funds and asset managers, the entities that move capital in the size required to absorb a billion-token wall and keep buying.
And they have been explicit about why they are on the sidelines: they treat XRP as a legal question mark, an asset whose regulatory status, while improved by the agency-level commodity classification, has not been settled into law. An executive-agency classification can be reversed by the next administration with a memo; a statute cannot.
That is why institutions wait for a statute. Institutions managing fiduciary money do not commit at scale to an asset whose legal status could be reversed by a future regulator, and so they wait for the certainty that only legislation provides.
The proof of this is in who has been buying and who has not. Retail-sized ETF demand has shown up and defended the price, while the institutional money large enough to break it has stayed out, waiting for the law.
That is the standoff CLARITY would resolve.
The math behind $8 billion
Now the projection itself, because the $8 billion figure is a direct consequence of the dynamic above, not an arbitrary target.
Standard Chartered’s argument runs like this. The roughly $1.44 billion XRP ETFs have drawn so far came almost entirely from retail and smaller investors, because the large institutions have stayed out pending legal certainty.
If CLARITY passes and codifies XRP’s commodity status into law, the legal question mark that has kept institutions out is removed. The pool of eligible buyers expands dramatically to include the pension funds, asset managers, and institutional allocators who could not commit before.
That expansion is what produces the $4 billion to $8 billion first-year projection: not a multiplication of the existing retail demand, but the addition of an entirely new and far larger class of buyer that the law would unlock. Three to six times the current inflows is what you get when you add institutional capital to a flow that until now has been almost purely retail.
The mechanical beauty of the argument is how the pieces fit. The institutional money that CLARITY would unlock is precisely the large, sustained, break-even-indifferent buying required to overwhelm the 1.16 billion XRP wall at $1.45.
So CLARITY does not just add demand; it adds exactly the kind of demand that can break the ceiling that has capped XRP all year. The $8 billion is not only a flow projection; it is the force that would clear the wall and let XRP re-rate higher.
The same institutional buyers who would drive the inflows are the ones large enough to absorb the break-even supply and keep going. The projection and the price-ceiling problem are two descriptions of the same event: institutions arriving in size once the law lets them.
That is also the utility side of the same CLARITY catalyst, because the same statute that could unlock ETF flows would also give institutions more confidence in XRP-linked settlement infrastructure.
What history warns
An honest account has to weigh the projection against the cautionary pattern in XRP’s own history, because the asset has a habit of disappointing on supposedly bullish catalysts.
The warning is that XRP catalysts have repeatedly arrived already priced in. When the SEC case against Ripple settled in August 2025, a major positive event, XRP had already peaked a month earlier, and long-term holders used the resolution as an exit, selling into the news rather than buying.
The pattern recurred through 2026. The March commodity classification spiked XRP from $1.44 to $1.54 within hours, then faded as the break-even wall capped it.
The May committee vote pushed it from $1.42 to $1.52, then faded the same way. The lesson is that XRP has a tendency to run up in anticipation of a catalyst and then sell off when it arrives, because the buyers who wanted to position have already done so and the break-even sellers are waiting.
A passage of CLARITY could, in principle, follow the same script: a run-up, then a sell-the-news fade if the institutional inflows do not materialize fast enough to overwhelm the supply.
This is why the projection needs to be held with both conviction and caution. The $8 billion argument is mechanically sound, the institutional money is real and waiting, and the math of adding it to a retail-only flow produces large numbers.
But the history says the inflows have to actually show up, in size and quickly, to break the pattern of catalysts arriving pre-priced. A projection of institutional demand is not the same as institutional demand in hand.
The honest position is that the $8 billion is realistic if the institutions arrive as the argument predicts. It is also the one scenario worth wanting confirmed by actual inflows before leaning on it.
The math is strong; the execution risk is that XRP does what it has done before and sells the news.
Where XRP trades by Q4
Pulling the analysis together, the projection implies a set of scenarios for where XRP could trade by the fourth quarter, anchored to the current price near $1.13 to $1.18 and the dynamics above.
In the failure scenario, CLARITY stalls, no Senate vote happens before the August recess, and the catalyst that has been holding up the price fades. Fear of a multi-year delay creeps in, the break-even sellers keep capping any bounce, and XRP drifts back toward its lows for the year.
The $0.80 to $1.00 zone comes back into play, with the door open to lower if the broad market stays weak. That is the downside if the vote stalls, because the market would lose the one catalyst big enough to change the flow picture.
In the base case, a compromise comes together and CLARITY clears around late July or early August. Legal certainty begins removing the discount that has weighed on XRP, the $1.45 break-even wall starts to give way on rising volume, and a re-rating into the $1.60 to $2.20 range becomes realistic by the fourth quarter.
This is the outcome where the law passes and the institutional money begins to arrive, clearing the wall in an orderly way.
The strongest case requires more than the vote. If CLARITY passes, ETF inflows reaccelerate toward Standard Chartered’s billions-scale projection, and the Federal Reserve begins easing into the autumn, the money waiting on the sidelines would finally overwhelm the break-even sellers.
In that scenario, XRP could retest the $2.50 to $3.50 area, still short of the old $3.65 high. That is the scenario the $8 billion projection points toward, and it is also the one most dependent on multiple things going right at once: passage, then inflows, then a supportive macro.
The range across scenarios is wide because the outcome is binary on the legislation. From around $1.13 today, a failed vote points back toward $0.80 to $1.00, passage near the recess supports $1.60 to $2.20, and passage plus renewed inflows plus a softer Fed opens up $2.50 to $3.50.
Where XRP ends the year traces back to one thing this summer: whether the law passes and the institutions it would unlock actually arrive. That is the core of the longer-horizon outlook, where the next move depends less on retail enthusiasm than on whether institutions receive permanent legal cover.
What it means for investors
For anyone weighing XRP, the Standard Chartered projection is most useful not as a price target but as a map of the mechanism, and the mechanism is what to watch.
The $8 billion figure is worth less as a number to anchor on than as a description of how XRP could break its range: institutional money, unlocked by legal certainty, arriving in the size needed to clear the break-even wall. An investor watching XRP should track the pieces of that mechanism.
Those pieces are the progress of CLARITY through the Senate, the pace of ETF inflows and whether they show signs of shifting from retail to institutional scale, and the behavior of the price at the $1.45 wall. Those are the signals that the projection is or is not playing out.
The discipline is to treat $8 billion as the upside case that depends on a specific chain of events, not as a promise. Given XRP’s history of selling the news, the inflows should be confirmed rather than assumed.
That also means remembering why an ETF is access, not automatic demand. XRP ETFs opened the door, but the price only breaks if buyers large enough to clear the wall actually walk through.
The realistic framing is that XRP is a binary bet on a piece of legislation, with a clear mechanical upside if the bet wins and a clear downside if it loses. The break-even wall, the waiting institutions, and the $8 billion projection are all real, and together they make a coherent case that passage could drive a significant re-rating.
But the same analysis shows the downside if CLARITY fails: a drift back toward the year’s lows as the catalyst fades. An investor should size any XRP position to that binary reality, understanding that the upside depends on a law passing and the institutions it unlocks actually arriving, and that the history warns against assuming the catalyst will not be sold.
None of this is investment advice; it is the math behind a projection that is only as good as the events it depends on.
The number and the mechanism
Standard Chartered’s $8 billion projection sounds like analyst hype until you trace the math, and the math is sound.
XRP ETFs have drawn $1.44 billion almost entirely from retail, the large institutions have stayed out because XRP is a legal question mark, and CLARITY would remove that question mark. That would unlock exactly the institutional buying, three to six times the current flow, that could clear the 1.16 billion XRP wall at $1.45 and let the price re-rate.
The number is not a vibe; it is the consequence of who has been buying, who has not, and what would change if the law passed.
What the math cannot guarantee is that the institutions arrive on schedule. XRP has a history of selling its catalysts, running up before the news and fading after it, and a projection of institutional demand is not the same as institutional demand in hand.
The honest synthesis is that the $8 billion is realistic if CLARITY passes and the institutional money shows up as the argument predicts. This is the one scenario worth confirming with actual inflows before leaning on it.
From around $1.13 today, the year ends somewhere between $0.80 and $3.50 depending almost entirely on the law and what it unlocks. The wall at $1.45 is the obstacle, institutional money is the only thing big enough to break it, and CLARITY is the key that decides whether that money is allowed to arrive.
That, and not any single price target, is the math that matters.
Frequently asked questions
What did Standard Chartered project for XRP ETFs?
Standard Chartered projected that XRP exchange-traded funds could attract $4 billion to $8 billion in inflows in their first year if the CLARITY Act passes, three to six times the roughly $1.44 billion they have drawn since launching in November 2025. The projection rests on the argument that CLARITY would remove the legal uncertainty keeping large institutions out, unlocking a new and far larger class of buyer.
What is the $1.45 break-even wall?
Roughly 1.16 billion XRP sit as sell orders clustered around $1.45, the break-even level for a large group of buyers from the last cycle who bought near that price, watched it fall, and want to exit flat when it returns. Every rally toward $1.45 runs into this supply, which caps the price. It is the mechanical reason XRP keeps stalling at the same level despite regulatory wins, and clearing it requires demand large enough to absorb all of it.
Why has XRP’s price stayed stuck despite ETF inflows?
The roughly $1.44 billion in ETF inflows so far has been retail-sized, enough to defend a price floor but not to overwhelm the 1.16 billion XRP break-even wall at $1.45. This creates a standoff: retail demand holds the floor while the break-even sellers cap the ceiling, trapping XRP in a range. The buyers large enough to break the wall, big institutions, have stayed on the sidelines because they treat XRP as a legal question mark pending legislation.
Why would the CLARITY Act unlock institutional buying?
Institutions managing fiduciary money avoid assets whose legal status could be reversed. XRP currently has a commodity classification from agencies, but that can be undone by a future administration, while a statute cannot. CLARITY would codify XRP’s commodity status into law, removing the reversible-classification risk and expanding the pool of eligible buyers to include pension funds and asset managers who could not commit before. That is the demand that produces the $4 billion to $8 billion projection.
Where could XRP trade by the end of 2026?
From around $1.13 today, the scenarios are wide because the outcome is binary on the legislation. If CLARITY fails or stalls before the August recess, XRP could drift back toward $0.80 to $1.00. If it passes near the recess, a re-rating to $1.60 to $2.20 becomes realistic. If passage is followed by reaccelerating ETF inflows and a softer Federal Reserve, XRP could retest $2.50 to $3.50, still short of its $3.65 all-time high.
Is the $8 billion projection reliable?
The math is sound, but it depends on execution. The argument correctly identifies that institutional money is waiting on legal certainty and that CLARITY would unlock it. The risk is XRP’s history of selling its catalysts: major positive events like the August 2025 SEC settlement arrived already priced in, with holders exiting into the news. The $8 billion is realistic if institutions arrive in size and quickly after passage, but a projection of demand is not demand in hand, and the inflows should be confirmed rather than assumed.
As of June 18, 2026. Cryptocurrency markets and legislation are subject to change; verify current details before relying on this analysis. This article is information, not investment advice.
Digital asset company AllUnity is launching SEKAU, a Swedish krona-backed stablecoin issued under the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA).
The new token operates as an e-money token under MiCA, according to a statement shared with Cointelegraph on Friday. It is backed by segregated Swedish krona reserves and targets institutional settlement and cross-border payments.
The launch follows AllUnity’s Swiss franc stablecoin rollout, extending its multi-currency stablecoin strategy under the EU’s MiCA framework.
Banking Circle among SEKAU partners
The launch of SEKAU is supported by a growing ecosystem of partners.
Banking Circle, a regulated business-to-business bank and financial infrastructure company based in Luxembourg, will hold and manage the reserves backing the token, while Swedish Marginalen Bank supports the rollout as a banking partner.
Trust Anchor Group, a local digital asset infrastructure and technology company, provides infrastructure integration for broader ecosystem access to the stablecoin.
Swedish krona stablecoin launches on multiple networks
SEKAU debuts across five blockchain networks, including Ethereum, Solana, Base, Tempo and Polygon.
AllUnity said the multi-chain rollout is designed to improve access, interoperability and liquidity across major blockchain ecosystems. The company added that it plans to expand SEKAU to additional blockchain networks later in 2026.
By contrast, AllUnity’s Swiss franc stablecoin CHFAU initially launched exclusively on Ethereum in February before expanding to Tempo. The company also operates EURAU, a euro-backed stablecoin launched in 2025.
Source: AllUnity
Since launch, EURAU has reached a market capitalization of $1.4 million and ranks as the 16th largest euro stablecoin among 23 tracked tokens, according to CoinGecko. The euro stablecoin market totals about $883 million in combined value at the time of writing.
AllUnity stressed that SEKAU is the first fully reserved Swedish krona-denominated stablecoin aligned with MiCA, issued as a regulated EMT backed 1:1 by SEK reserves.
“SEK exposure has previously existed mainly through early-stage concepts, which are not confirmed as a MiCA-authorized, fully regulated EMT,” a spokesperson for AllUnity told Cointelegraph.
Related: Tether winds down gold-backed derivative stablecoin aUSDT
The representative also mentioned that Swedish banking and fintech pilots have explored tokenized deposit money and settlement systems, but these remain “closed, experimental infrastructures” rather than publicly redeemable stablecoins.
AllUnity said the most relevant initiative is Sweden’s e-krona project by the Riksbank, a central bank digital currency exploring tokenized payments infrastructure, but it is fundamentally different from a stablecoin. Riksbank communicated earlier this year that there were no stablecoins in Swedish kronor.
Magazine: Crypto wanted to overthrow banks, now it’s becoming them in stablecoin fight
TLDR
- SOL breached the $70 level on Friday, declining more than 6% from its June 15 peak at $75.60
- Morgan Stanley submitted an updated S-1 filing to the SEC for a Solana ETF product (MSOL)
- Weekly capital flows into SOL ETFs reached $7.11 million even as prices retreated
- Solana has emerged as the leading blockchain for tokenized Real-World Assets by holder count, surpassing 285,000 holders
- Critical support zone established at $70; breach could trigger decline toward June lows around $62
Solana experienced a sharp reversal from its recent $75.60 high, falling to an intraday bottom of $70.70 on June 18 before finding temporary support around $71. This downturn came after a strong 20%+ recovery from early June’s $62 floor.
The downward pressure intensified following the Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates within the 3.50%–3.75% range, coupled with cautionary language about persistent inflation threats. Fed officials signaled potential additional policy tightening through 2026, prompting investors to retreat from high-volatility assets such as SOL.
Bitcoin simultaneously retreated toward the $64,000 mark in response to the Fed’s stance. Many major altcoins experienced more pronounced declines compared to Bitcoin during this period.
Crypto analyst Ash Crypto observed that SOL’s monthly chart indicators show the most oversold conditions in its history. He further noted that Solana achieved a new milestone for tokenized stock trading volume in a single day, processing over $140 million in spot transactions—97% of the total crypto market share, outperforming all competing blockchains combined.
Despite the bearish price action, institutional appetite for Solana exposure has remained robust. SOL-based ETF products attracted $2.99 million in a single day on Thursday, contributing to a weekly total of $7.11 million in net inflows.
ETF Filing and Institutional Moves
Morgan Stanley submitted a revised S-1 registration statement to the SEC on Thursday for its Solana-focused exchange-traded fund, which will trade under the ticker MSOL. This filing represents the latest in a series of institutional developments surrounding SOL in recent weeks.
Eight consecutive months of positive net flows into SOL ETF products demonstrate persistent institutional conviction. Continued capital inflows throughout the coming week could potentially shift the monthly balance from marginally negative to positive territory.
RWA Adoption on Solana
On the retail adoption front, Solana has claimed the top position among blockchains by Real-World Asset holder count. The network now hosts over 285,000 holders of tokenized RWAs, with the tokenized SpaceX IPO serving as a significant catalyst.
Despite these positive on-chain developments, derivatives market data paints a more cautious picture. SOL futures Open Interest contracted to $4.85 billion on Friday, down from $5.18 billion just two days earlier on Wednesday.
Long position liquidations over the past 24 hours totaled $13.66 million, dramatically outpacing the $1.80 million in short liquidations, indicating clear bearish control of the market.
Market analyst BATMAN observed that Solana had been “rejected by its previous support level, now as resistance,” and that the stochastic oscillator had climbed to the same overbought zone that preceded the previous significant peak.
CoinGlass liquidation heatmap analysis reveals concentrated leveraged positions clustered between $74 and $76. Another significant liquidity pool exists in the $65–$66 range.
The critical near-term support level holds at $70. A confirmed daily close beneath this threshold could accelerate movement toward the June low near $62, with Fibonacci extension levels suggesting potential downside toward $60.
For bullish momentum to reassert itself, SOL needs a definitive daily close above the descending trendline, with overhead resistance barriers positioned at $74.80 and $79.30.
Kalshi has exceeded a $2 billion annualized revenue run rate as the prediction market operator has begun early discussions with investment banks about a potential initial public offering, according to a report from The Information.
Summary
- Kalshi has reportedly begun early IPO discussions with investment banks after surpassing a $2 billion annualized revenue run rate.
- The prediction market platform recorded $16.81 billion in May trading volume and recently secured a $1 billion funding round at a $22 billion valuation.
The Information, citing people familiar with the matter, reported that Kalshi has held informal talks regarding an IPO while continuing to post rapid business growth. The revenue figure represents a sharp increase from the $1 billion annualized run rate previously reported by The Wall Street Journal in March.
A spokesperson for Kalshi declined to comment on the IPO discussions when contacted by The Block.
Fresh interest in a public listing comes weeks after the company secured $1 billion in Series F funding at a $22 billion valuation. The round was led by Coatue and included participation from Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, IVP, Paradigm, Morgan Stanley, and ARK Invest.
Trading activity has continued to climb alongside that growth. Data from DeFiLlama showed Kalshi recorded $16.81 billion in trading volume during May, up from $14.81 billion in April. Competing platform Polymarket generated $7.08 billion in volume last month, compared with $9.01 billion a month earlier.
Regulatory pressure intensifies as business expands
Rising volumes and investor interest have coincided with mounting scrutiny from lawmakers, gaming groups, state regulators, and federal authorities over how prediction markets should be regulated in the United States.
Earlier this week, several U.S. gaming industry organizations urged the Senate to include language in pending crypto market structure legislation that would explicitly prevent sports and casino-style prediction markets from operating under federal derivatives rules, according to a Semafor report.
Among the groups backing the effort were the American Gaming Association, the Indian Gaming Association, and the Association of Gaming Equipment Manufacturers. In a letter cited by Semafor, the organizations argued that prediction market operators have effectively expanded sports betting nationwide while bypassing state and tribal gaming frameworks.
Their push arrives as lawmakers continue reviewing the CLARITY Act, a major crypto market structure proposal that has already advanced through the Senate Banking Committee.
Political opposition has also been accompanied by legal challenges at the state level. Kentucky became the latest state this week to sue Kalshi, Polymarket, and affiliated entities, alleging they operated illegal and unlicensed sports betting platforms within the state. Similar actions have emerged across multiple jurisdictions, including Ohio, Nevada, New Jersey, Maryland, Montana, Illinois, New York, Connecticut, Arizona, Wisconsin, New Mexico, and others.
Federal and state regulators remain at odds
Court battles surrounding prediction markets increasingly center on a jurisdictional dispute between state gaming authorities and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Just days earlier, the CFTC filed suit against New Mexico after state officials moved against Kalshi over allegations that it offered unlicensed sports betting products. In its complaint, the regulator argued that event contracts listed on federally regulated exchanges fall under its exclusive authority through the Commodity Exchange Act and cannot be subjected to state gaming enforcement.
CFTC Chair Michael Selig said at the time that New Mexico was attempting to override established law and judicial precedent governing federally regulated exchanges.
At the same time, critics of prediction markets have challenged whether sports-related event contracts belong under derivatives regulation at all. Former CFTC Chair Gary Gensler told the Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals earlier this month that sports prediction contracts do not function like traditional swaps because they are not used to hedge commercial or economic risks.
Federal regulators, however, have continued defending their oversight role while also developing a framework that would review event contracts individually rather than imposing category-wide restrictions. According to a Wall Street Journal report published this month, the agency is considering standards that would subject certain contracts to closer review while allowing others to remain listed.
Key Takeaways
- Alex Mashinsky has been issued a lifetime prohibition from all CFTC-regulated trading activities
- This enforcement action represents the CFTC’s inaugural case against a cryptocurrency lending platform
- The Celsius founder is currently incarcerated, serving 12 years for fraud charges connected to the 2022 platform failure
- Regulatory bans now include the CFTC and FTC, while SEC litigation remains unresolved
- A motion to overturn his criminal conviction was submitted in May, citing legal representation failures and prosecutorial issues
The founder of the defunct cryptocurrency lending platform Celsius, Alex Mashinsky, has received a permanent prohibition from participating in any trading activities regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
On Thursday, a federal court within the Southern District of New York granted approval for the consent decree. This ruling permanently prevents Mashinsky from obtaining CFTC registration or engaging in any commodities, futures, or derivatives trading activities.
According to the CFTC, this resolution marks the conclusion of the agency’s inaugural enforcement proceeding against a digital asset lending operation. The regulatory body initially launched this action in 2023.
This settlement includes no additional monetary penalties. Mashinsky is presently fulfilling a 12-year prison term imposed in May 2025, after entering a guilty plea to charges of securities fraud and commodities fraud.
Additionally, he received orders to pay $50,000 in fines and forfeit $48 million as components of his criminal proceedings.
Allegations Against the Celsius Platform
The CFTC asserted that Mashinsky, along with Celsius, orchestrated a fraudulent operation that deceived hundreds of thousands of users regarding the platform’s security, profitability, and adherence to regulatory standards.
Regulators claimed the platform collected approximately $20 billion in customer deposits and deployed these funds in high-risk ventures to fulfill the returns promised to its user base.
The Celsius platform failed in 2022 amid a widespread cryptocurrency market decline. According to the CFTC, the company continued assuring customers of fund security even while experiencing substantial financial losses.
Celsius joined several prominent cryptocurrency enterprises that collapsed during the same timeframe, amplifying the devastating impact on the broader industry.
Multiple Regulatory Prohibitions Accumulate
This CFTC prohibition represents just one of several industry bans imposed on Mashinsky.
In April, he reached a settlement agreement with the Federal Trade Commission. This agreement permanently prohibits him from involvement with any product or service facilitating asset deposits, exchanges, investments, or withdrawals.
The SEC maintains an ongoing legal action against Mashinsky, initiated in July 2023. The charges include conducting an unregistered securities offering, misrepresenting Celsius operations, and engaging in price manipulation of the Celsius token.
Toward the end of May, the SEC informed a federal court that settlement discussions with Mashinsky had commenced. No agreement has been finalized. The court extended the negotiation period by an additional 60 days for both parties.
Concurrently, Mashinsky submitted a motion on May 26 seeking to overturn his 12-year criminal sentence. His claims include inadequate legal representation, evidence contamination through official misconduct, and allegations that FTX co-founder Sam Bankman-Fried orchestrated the manipulation of Celsius token prices.
Prosecutors have been directed by the court to file their response to this motion by mid-August.
The CFTC settlement represents among the final significant regulatory proceedings against Mashinsky to conclude, leaving only the SEC litigation outstanding.
Algorand Foundation has released a post-quantum security roadmap that aims to make the layer-1 blockchain broadly quantum resilient by the end of 2027.
Summary
- Algorand plans native post-quantum accounts, multisignatures, and consensus upgrades before its network’s end-2027 target date.
- Google research has increased pressure on blockchains to prepare for future attacks against exposed keys.
- Bitcoin, France, and major security bodies are already planning quantum-safe transitions.
The plan covers user accounts, wallets, developer tools, staking, and the consensus system that helps secure the network.
The foundation said the first milestones will begin in Q3 2026. Native post-quantum accounts are expected to reach users and developers through Pera Wallet and updated software kits. Later steps include post-quantum multisignatures and the foundation’s own treasury migration to post-quantum accounts.
Falcon accounts build on earlier work
Algorand began preparing for quantum risks in 2022 by adding State Proofs signed with Falcon, a lattice-based signature scheme. The foundation says Falcon offers smaller signatures than some other post-quantum options, which can help blockchain systems where data size matters.
The new roadmap expands that work with native Falcon-1024 accounts. Algorand also plans to support hybrid accounts, where users can secure an account with both classic and post-quantum keys. The foundation says this approach can reduce risk while newer cryptography matures.
Algorand said Falcon accounts will work with its standard wallet experience, including familiar mnemonic backup flows. The foundation also said it is open to working with hardware wallet makers and other industry groups on wider account standards.
Quantum risk is moving into policy
The roadmap comes as governments and security agencies move quantum-safe systems into formal planning. France’s cybersecurity agency ANSSI plans to stop certifying products that lack quantum-resistant encryption from 2027. The U.S. National Security Agency has also set a 2027 start date for new national security systems that use approved quantum-resistant algorithms.
Google researchers have added more pressure to the debate. In March, Google said future quantum computers may break the elliptic-curve cryptography used by many blockchains with fewer resources than earlier estimates suggested. Algorand’s Bruno Martins said, “Governments, standards bodies, and security experts around the world are already preparing” for that risk.
Crypto networks prepare early
As previously reported by crypto.news, Glassnode warned that 1.92 million BTC, or 9.6% of supply, sits in outputs that are structurally exposed to a future quantum breakthrough. The firm said the risk is not active today, but exchanges and custodians should improve address practices and plan migration paths.
Crypto.news also reported that France’s 2027 certification rule adds pressure on crypto networks, wallets, and security vendors. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Algorand, and Aptos are now part of a wider debate on how blockchains should move to post-quantum security.
Algorand’s plan does not claim that a working attack exists. It treats quantum computing as a long-term security issue that needs early work because live blockchains can take years to change.
Chris Peikert, Algorand Foundation’s chief scientific officer, said migrating a live protocol takes years and that the chance of a quantum attack on older cryptography grows as the end of the decade approaches. He said the roadmap brings post-quantum cryptography to every layer of a live network, including consensus.
The layer-1 blockchain Algorand has released its plan to tackle the potential threat of quantum computing, with a roadmap to update the network’s infrastructure by the end of 2027.
Algorand Foundation technology chief Bruno Martins said Thursday that the updates will aim to give the network broad quantum resilience, a threat it has been researching and preparing for several years.
“Governments, standards bodies, and security experts around the world are already preparing for a future where quantum computers may break many of the cryptographic systems that protect today’s digital infrastructure,” Martins said.
Algorand is the latest crypto project to plan for quantum computing as users share increasing concerns that the technology could soon break the encryption underpinning the ecosystem, putting billions of dollars worth of value at risk of exploitation.
Quantum computers, a technology set to be vastly more powerful than today’s supercomputers, are only in their early stages, but Google researchers said in a paper in March that they may need fewer resources than previously estimated to break the cryptography protecting blockchains.
That paper also noted that Algorand was likely the most quantum-ready blockchain, while Ethereum and Solana are also actively exploring solutions to be prepared for quantum computers.
Algorand’s Martins said the roadmap includes new accounts based on its signature scheme, Falcon, designed with quantum-resistant cryptography.
Source: Algorand
He added that the blockchain will also update its consensus mechanism from its current cryptography, which is not quantum-resistant. It will also update how accounts participating in consensus operate and is researching options, including a “hybrid mix” of classic and quantum-resistant signatures.
Related: Nearly 10% of Bitcoin supply is ‘structurally unsafe’ from quantum breakthrough: Glassnode
Quantum threats to cryptography are a growing concern among governments and businesses, with many companies putting plans in place before quantum computers are powerful enough to break encryption, which could happen as soon as 2030.
France’s cybersecurity agency ANSSI said on Tuesday that it will stop certifying security products that lack quantum-resistant encryption to encourage businesses to create only quantum-safe products by 2030.
The US National Security Agency has also required all new national security systems to use its quantum-resistant algorithms starting Jan. 1, 2027, while nonquantum-resistant systems must be phased out by the end of 2030.
Google has set a deadline for 2029 to be ready for the event due to rapid progress in quantum computing hardware and error correction.
Last month, Tezos launched a prototype blockchain for payments designed to resist quantum computing attacks, and stablecoin issuer Circle released a roadmap in April for its Arc blockchain to become quantum-ready.
California Institute of Technology researchers have also theorized that a functional quantum computer may require far fewer resources than previously believed, and one could be deployed before 2030.
Magazine: Nobody knows if quantum-secure cryptography will even work
Bitcoin miners are being recast as potential “AI infrastructure” plays, but turning that story into funded, operational capacity may demand a scale of investment that many public operators currently do not have. A framework highlighted in Blocksbridge Consulting’s Miner Weekly newsletter estimates that miners could require roughly $50 billion in near-term capital to build AI- and high-performance computing (HPC) data center facilities from their existing power assets.
The idea is gaining traction as mining difficulty and hashprice pressures intensify. In parallel, Miner Weekly points to a major June shift in the mining network—difficulty fell sharply after an estimated 100 exahashes per second (EH/s) of computing power went offline—raising fresh questions about how much of miners’ future energy allocation will remain tied to producing Bitcoin.
Key takeaways
- Miner Weekly argues that financing needs for AI/HPC-grade data centers are materially higher than for traditional Bitcoin mining operations, potentially pushing total near-term capital demand for miners toward ~$50 billion.
- Estimated AI data center funding gaps vary by miner, with IREN facing the largest gap at about $21.1 billion, followed by Riot Platforms ($7.2 billion) and HIVE Digital ($4.6 billion).
- The network saw a historically large difficulty drop—down 10.09% to 124.93 trillion on June 14—after an estimated 100 EH/s went offline.
- Miner Weekly suggests the AI pivot could alter future hashrate growth patterns, as miners redirect some energy capacity from Bitcoin production toward data center services.
- Underlying mining economics have been stressed since the 2024 halving, with CoinShares and other analysts describing hashprice falling to levels where a meaningful share of miners may run unprofitably.
Why “AI miner” narratives imply very real capex
Miner Weekly’s central point is that power is only the starting point. Converting energy access into AI-ready data center capacity requires upgrading infrastructure standards—especially around reliability and performance. According to Miner Weekly, a Bitcoin mine can often function with “relatively simple buildings,” modular setups, and ASIC fleets that can tolerate fast curtailment. AI and HPC facilities, by contrast, require higher uptime commitments and greater system redundancy, including more demanding cooling, electrical backup, networking capacity, and ongoing customer support.
That shift in requirements matters because it changes how investors should interpret “miner-to-AI” announcements. If miners truly aim to monetize their power assets by hosting or operating AI/HPC infrastructure, the bottleneck is no longer only securing power; it becomes securing the long-term financing needed for complex data center buildouts.
Miner Weekly’s framework relies on VanEck data to argue that the move could require billions per large public miner and adds up to a much larger aggregate figure across the sector.
Difficulty drop highlights how fragile mining economics can be
Even as the AI narrative spreads, the near-term mechanics of mining are still dominated by network conditions. Miner Weekly points to one of the largest percentage declines in Bitcoin mining difficulty on record: difficulty fell 10.09% to 124.93 trillion on June 14 after an estimated 100 EH/s of computing power went offline.
Miner Weekly attributes the decline to a combination of weaker mining economics and seasonal power curtailments. But the bigger implication the newsletter draws is about future behavior. If miners increasingly view data centers as a path to different revenue streams, the way hashrate grows—or contracts—may begin to reflect that reallocation of energy capacity.
In other words, a “difficulty down” moment is not just a snapshot of the mining cycle. It can also be a stress test for the industry’s broader strategy: whether miners can fund the pivot while competing in a market where profitability is sensitive to network difficulty and hashprice.
The funding gaps public miners would face
Miner Weekly highlights estimated AI data center funding gaps among public Bitcoin miners pursuing AI infrastructure. In its framework, IREN tops the list, needing an estimated $21.1 billion to complete its AI data center plans. Riot Platforms is shown with a $7.2 billion gap, and HIVE Digital with $4.6 billion.
These are not minor shortfalls. They also help explain why the AI pivot is still best understood as a longer-duration capital project rather than a quick re-rating. If miners must meet higher uptime and redundancy requirements, they need sustained investment—often through structured finance, project funding, or new equity/debt—before the AI story can translate into operating cash flows.
The funding discussion also aligns with earlier market commentary. Cointelegraph previously noted that Bernstein flagged IREN as the public miner most likely to move away from Bitcoin mining toward an AI cloud business, projecting a $3.7 billion annualized revenue run rate once AI operations are fully built out. The gap estimates in Miner Weekly underscore the practical challenge embedded in those forward-looking projections: building those operations requires substantial capital at the outset.
Pressures on mining since the halving—and what “hashprice” signals
Beyond network-level changes, Miner Weekly frames the AI pivot as increasingly appealing because traditional mining economics have been under pressure since Bitcoin’s 2024 halving. The core issue is that hashprice—the daily revenue earned per unit of computing power—has fallen sharply from highs seen around Bitcoin’s all-time peak in October.
Earlier coverage summarized in the article described how the environment worsened through 2024. In a December report, TheEnergyMag characterized Q4 as the “harshest margin environment of all time” for public miners, citing hashprice dropping to roughly $35 per PH/s. In the first quarter, CoinShares data in prior reporting indicated hashprice falling further to around $28 per PH/s, a level at which, the coverage notes, up to 20% of miners may be operating at a loss—particularly those with older hardware or higher electricity costs.
This is where the AI pivot’s investor relevance becomes sharper. When mining margins compress, balance sheets become more sensitive to financing costs and to the ability to withstand volatility in hashprice. By emphasizing that AI/HPC infrastructure demands higher reliability standards, Miner Weekly effectively argues that miners shouldn’t treat AI as a simple extension of their existing operations. It’s a transition that could reshape capital allocation—and potentially influence which operators can sustain both sides of the story.
At the same time, the broader AI buildout is continuing. The article references Cointelegraph coverage that Nvidia is reportedly planning a $20 billion bond offering to help fund AI-related investments, reinforcing the backdrop of sustained demand for compute infrastructure.
For investors and operators, the next signal to watch is whether public miners can close the estimated AI data center funding gaps without undermining their core mining operations during periods of difficulty volatility and depressed hashprice. The strategic pivot may still be plausible, but the timing—and the ability to finance higher-grade AI infrastructure—will likely determine how quickly the narrative turns into measurable results.
SpaceX (SPCX) shares have dropped 18% from their post-IPO peak, and the average investor who bought in the open market is now nearly breaking even, raising the question of whether the historic debut has already peaked.
Shares closed Thursday at $184.98, down 3.6% on the day. According to CNBC, the stock’s five-day volume-weighted average price sat at $181.71, a closely watched measure of where the typical post-debut buyer is positioned. That slim margin above cost basis marks a sharp reversal from Tuesday’s intraday high above $225.
From $3 Trillion to Seventh Place
The two-day slide has erased roughly $620 billion in market value, pulling SpaceX’s valuation from nearly $3 trillion down to $2.37 trillion. The company, which briefly ranked fourth globally ahead of Amazon and Microsoft, has since slipped as low as seventh place, competing closely with TSMC.
The trigger was SpaceX’s June 16 announcement that it would acquire Anysphere, the company behind AI coding tool Cursor, for $60 billion in an all-stock deal. The transaction carries roughly 3.4% dilution of SpaceX’s $1.77 trillion IPO valuation.
Morningstar responded by trimming its fair value estimate to $62 from $63, noting the deal adds share dilution on top of a stock it had already flagged as significantly overvalued. The firm’s best-case scenario puts fair value at $169, below where the stock is currently trading.
Retail Frenzy Cools Fast
The speed of the reversal underscores how sentiment-driven the initial rally was. Vanda Research data showed retail investors poured $369.8 million into SPCX over its first three sessions, more than four times the amount flowing into Nvidia over the same period. That pace slowed sharply by Thursday, June 18, with net retail buying cooling to $9.1 million by midafternoon.
Retail investors who received IPO allocations at $135 through platforms like Robinhood, Fidelity, and SoFi still hold gains, though many received only a fraction of the shares they requested. Those who chased the stock higher in the open market are now sitting on paper losses. As BeInCrypto reported ahead of the drop, smart money in the perpetuals market had already positioned for a correction.
Not everyone is bearish. Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan raised his price target to $250 following the Cursor deal, arguing the acquisition gives SpaceX access to AI talent, training data, and an established developer user base.
However, with a lockup expiry looming in late July that could double the tradeable float, and a potential $20 billion bond sale tied to xAI financing, the supply-side pressure on SPCX is only set to grow.
Whether this is a healthy correction or the start of a longer post-IPO unwind may hinge on SpaceX’s first earnings report as a public company, due in late July.
The post SpaceX Sheds $620 Billion in Two Days: Is the Post-IPO Slide Just Starting? appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Key Takeaways
- STRC finished Thursday at $88.59, reaching an intraday bottom of $82.50 — representing the most extended period below $100 par since its July 2025 launch
- Volume exploded to 10.7 million shares, significantly exceeding the typical 3.4–3.5 million daily range
- Analyst Jeff Dorman from Arca suggests Strategy could be forced to liquidate $3B–$4B in Bitcoin holdings to bring STRC back to par
- TD Cowen upheld its Buy rating on MSTR with a $400 target, even as MSTR shares dropped 4% to $112.53
- The company has suspended STRC’s ATM offering while shares remain under par value
Strategy’s preferred equity STRC ended Thursday’s trading at $88.59, representing back-to-back closes beneath $90 and the most prolonged period trading under its $100 par value since its initial offering in July 2025.
Intraday action saw STRC plunge to $82.50 before staging a modest comeback. The security was structured to maintain par value through a flexible dividend mechanism — presently yielding 12.9% with monthly recalibrations.
Share volume exploded to roughly 10.7 million on Thursday, dwarfing the standard daily turnover of approximately 3.4 to 3.5 million. This marked one of the most active trading sessions since the preferred stock’s inception.
With STRC languishing below par, Strategy has temporarily halted the security’s ATM offering. Under normal circumstances when STRC exceeds $100, Strategy issues additional shares to acquire Bitcoin.
The company’s common equity also experienced turbulence, declining 4% to settle at $112.53.
Potential Remedies for STRC’s Par Value Problem
Jeff Dorman, Arca’s Chief Investment Officer, outlined the available pathways on X, characterizing it as the “MSTR pickle continues.”
Dorman’s primary projection — assigned a 70% likelihood — envisions Strategy gradually offloading modest quantities of MSTR shares monthly at dilutive prices. He contends this approach provides STRC investors “a glimmer of hope” while preserving most Bitcoin reserves, though he cautions MSTR equity “would get hammered.”
His secondary forecast, weighted at 25% probability, involves more aggressive intervention: liquidating $3 billion to $4 billion in Bitcoin holdings. Dorman suggests this would “buy a ton of time” and benefit STRC holders, despite creating short-term headwinds for Bitcoin prices.
The final alternative — what Dorman labels the “nuclear” option at 5% probability — would see Strategy suspending dividend payments on its preferred securities. This could leave preferred shareholders recovering just 30 to 40 cents per dollar and potentially exclude Strategy from capital markets indefinitely. However, it would eliminate what Dorman calculates as approximately $1.7 billion in annual cash obligations.
TD Cowen Maintains Optimistic Stance
Despite mounting concerns, TD Cowen reaffirmed its Buy recommendation on MSTR Thursday, preserving its $400 price objective while expressing confidence in Strategy’s preferred stock portfolio, including STRC.
The investment bank characterized Strategy as evolving beyond merely functioning as a leveraged Bitcoin vehicle toward establishing what it describes as a “Bitcoin capital markets platform.”
TD Cowen analysts referenced three investor briefings with CFO Andrew Kang, observing that Strategy may emphasize reserve reconstruction and preferred stock stabilization over fresh Bitcoin acquisitions during challenging market environments.
Critic Peter Schiff escalated warnings on social platforms, suggesting potential litigation against Michael Saylor’s Strategy regarding STRC’s persistent deterioration.
Dorman additionally scrutinized MSTR’s broader valuation metrics, calculating the firm possesses approximately $35.2 billion in unencumbered Bitcoin assets against a $40.4 billion equity capitalization — positioning MSTR at 1.15x modified NAV. He argues the shares “should trade at a discount to NAV now” and face continued downside pressure absent a swift Bitcoin recovery.
The CFTC and SEC have asked the public to comment on how U.S. rules define swaps, security-based swaps, and related derivatives products.
Summary
- The agencies want feedback on swaps, security-based swaps, mixed swaps, and emerging derivatives products rules.
- CME says Kalshi’s crypto perpetual futures should be treated as swaps under Dodd-Frank law.
- The public comment request could shape crypto perps, prediction markets, and future jurisdiction lines nationwide.
The joint request focuses on Title VII of the Dodd-Frank Act, the law that split parts of the swaps market between the two agencies.
The request seeks input on swap exclusions, mixed swaps, jurisdictional questions, alternative compliance, and new products. The agencies said comments will remain open for 60 days after publication in the Federal Register.
The agencies said market structures and trading practices have changed since the original rules took shape. They asked whether current definitions still match the way derivatives products now trade.
The review also gives both agencies a common record as they weigh products that may touch both commodities and securities laws. It could also shape future staff guidance for market participants and courts.
CFTC Chair Michael Selig said the request could address “longstanding ambiguities” in Dodd-Frank. SEC Chair Paul Atkins said clarification is “long overdue,” including for event-based products.
CME lawsuit raises pressure
The public comment request came as CME Group sued the CFTC over the agency’s treatment of crypto perpetual futures. CME argues that Kalshi’s perpetual futures should fall under swaps rules, not ordinary futures rules.
As previously reported by crypto.news, CME accused the CFTC of bypassing congressional requirements when approving Kalshi’s crypto perpetual contracts. The exchange said the agency created a path for new competitors without using the swap framework set by Dodd-Frank.
CME Chief Executive Terrence Duffy had already said the company planned to sue after the CFTC cleared platforms such as Kalshi and Coinbase to offer regulated crypto perpetual futures. CME says the products compete for retail derivatives customers.
Perpetual futures test old categories
Perpetual futures are derivatives contracts without expiry dates. Traders can hold positions without rolling into a new contract, which makes them common on offshore crypto exchanges.
The CFTC allowed Kalshi’s Bitcoin perpetual futures to remain listed under existing futures rules, subject to compliance with the Commodity Exchange Act and CFTC regulations. Crypto.news earlier reported that Kalshi later expanded into other crypto-linked perpetual products.
The dispute now turns on legal definitions. If regulators treat crypto perps as swaps, platforms may face different rules for clearing, reporting, execution, and oversight. If regulators treat them as futures, venues can list them through the futures exchange process.
Prediction markets add another layer
The CFTC and SEC also asked for views on event contracts and other new products. That part of the request matters because prediction markets have grown quickly and now face questions over federal and state oversight.
Crypto.news has reported several CFTC fights involving Kalshi and state gaming regulators. The CFTC has argued that federally regulated event contracts fall under its authority, while states have claimed some sports-linked products look like gambling.
The SEC has also shown interest. Crypto.news earlier reported that Atkins told lawmakers some event contracts may fall under securities law, depending on how they are written.
The new comment process does not settle the CME case or the prediction market disputes. It gives exchanges, crypto firms, legal experts, and the public a chance to tell regulators where the current definitions need clearer lines.
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