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XRP ETFs in Green For 3 Week, But Price Remains Stuck

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XRP ETFs

XRP price has traded mostly flat over the past 24 hours and the past week. This sideways move shows clear market indecision. On the surface, institutional activity looks supportive. XRP spot ETFs have now recorded three straight weeks of inflows. But underneath this positive trend, a hidden weakness is quietly building.

Several technical and on-chain signals suggest XRP may be closer to a breakdown than it appears.

ETF Inflows Stay Positive, But Institutional Strength Is Rapidly Fading

XRP spot ETFs have recorded inflows for three straight weeks. The week ending February 6 saw $36.04 million in inflows. By the week ending February 20, inflows had fallen further to just $1.84 million.

This represents a drop of nearly 95% in weekly inflows within three weeks.

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XRP ETFs
XRP ETFs: SoSo Value

ETF inflows show how much institutional money is entering an asset. Rising inflows usually signal growing confidence. But falling inflows, even if still positive, show that institutional conviction is weakening quickly.

This institutional slowdown is already visible on the chart. XRP fell below its weekly Volume Weighted Average Price, or VWAP, on February 18 and hasn’t reclaimed the line since.

VWAP represents the average price weighted by volume. It is widely used as a proxy for institutional cost basis and is referred to by big money as a benchmark.

When the price falls below VWAP, it means institutions are holding positions at a loss on average. This often reduces their willingness to buy more. The last time XRP broke its weekly VWAP, it fell nearly 26%. The correction since February 18 is also continuing.

XRP Key Level
XRP Key Level: TradingView

At the same time, XRP is close to forming a hidden bearish divergence between February 6 and February 20. During this period, the XRP price seems to be printing a lower high. But the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, already formed a higher high.

RSI measures momentum. When momentum rises, but price fails to follow, it signals weakening recovery strength and a possible downtrend extension for XRP if $1.379 breaks. A clear price-specific confirmation would occur if the current XRP price fails to reach or exceed $1.439.

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Together, weakening ETF inflows, VWAP loss, and bearish divergence show that institutional strength is fading despite the positive ETF streak.

Exchange Flows and Dip Buying Explain Why Price Has Not Collapsed Yet

Despite falling below the VWAP, XRP has not collapsed sharply, like earlier. On-chain data helps explain why.

One key metric is Exchange Net Position Change. This tracks whether coins are moving into or out of exchanges. Outflows usually signal buying, while falling outflows show weakening demand.

On February 18, exchange outflows peaked near 71.32 million XRP. Recently, outflows dropped to around 41.69 million XRP. This marks a decline of about 41%.

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Buying Pressure Remains Weak
Buying Pressure Remains Weak: Glassnode

This shows that buying pressure has weakened significantly but still remains.

Another indicator shows buyers are still active. The Money Flow Index, or MFI, tracks real capital entering an asset. Between February 6 and February 19, the XRP price trended lower.

But MFI trended higher. This divergence shows dip buyers are slowly accumulating even as the price weakens.

MFI Moves Up
MFI Moves Up: TradingView

This dip buying helps explain why XRP has remained relatively stable after losing its VWAP. Buyers are absorbing selling pressure. This has prevented an immediate collapse so far. But this support is limited. If dip buying weakens, downside risk could increase quickly.

XRP Price Faces Critical $1.25 Test as Cost Basis Cluster Becomes Final Support

Cost basis data now shows XRP approaching a critical support zone. Cost basis represents the prices at which investors previously bought XRP.

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These levels often act as strong support or resistance. The most important support cluster currently sits near $1.26, hosting over 159 million XRP.

XRP Heatmap
XRP Heatmap: Glassnode

This is where a large number of holders bought XRP. As long as this level holds, the XRP price may avoid a deeper crash beyond 12% even if the immediate support zone at $1.35-$1.37 breaks.

However, if XRP falls below $1.26 ($1.259 on the chart), selling pressure could accelerate sharply. The next major downside levels would appear near $1.162 and $1.024.

XRP Price Analysis
XRP Price Analysis: TradingView

On the upside, XRP must first reclaim $1.439. A stronger recovery would require moves above $1.476 and $1.549. Only a breakout above $1.670 would fully cut the bearish momentum.

For now, XRP remains stuck between weakening institutional support and steady dip buying. ETF inflows are still positive, but falling rapidly.

Technical and on-chain signals show that $1.259 is now the most important level that could determine XRP’s next major move, especially if the bearish divergence and VWAP weakness continue to play out.

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Crypto World

Pyth soars 9% following Polymarket integration. Will it rally higher?

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Pyth soars 9% following Polymarket integration. Will it rally higher?

Key takeaways

  • PYTH is up 9% in the last 24 hours, outperforming other major cryptocurrencies.
  • The rally comes following Pyth Network’s integration with Polymarket.

PYTH, the native coin of the Pyth Network, is one of the best performers in the crypto market over the past 24 hours. It could rally higher in the near term as the broader market recovers from Thursday’s slump.

PYTH rallies on Polymarket integration

On Thursday, Pyth Network revealed in a blog post that Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market platform, has integrated Pyth Pro as its data source for a new suite of traditional asset contracts.

The initial offerings include gold, silver, and major equity index ETFs. Polymarket now relies on Pyth Pro’s data to power its daily up/down and daily close markets, with live price charts updated every second to ensure full transparency.

The integration has seen PYTH rally by 9% in the last 24 hours and now trades at $0.0420 per coin. 

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Pyth Pro provides real-time price data through WebSocket, which Polymarket samples every second to display as a live “price to beat” chart. This allows traders to monitor the market’s status relative to their position in real-time.

The selected assets span a wide range of traditional finance, including major equity indices, commodities like gold, silver, WTI crude, and natural gas, along with over a dozen high-profile U.S. equities such as TSLA, COIN, and PLTR.

Polymarket has integrated this real-time data as a key component of its perpetual futures trading platform. Pyth Pro delivers institutional-grade market data directly from top firms, ensuring it is accurate, transparent, and affordable across all asset classes and regions.

To enhance this, Pyth has partnered with industry leaders and government agencies like Cboe, Jane Street, Revolut, and the U.S. Department of Commerce. This collaboration has helped establish a new model to make market data more accessible, accurate, and transparent.

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PYTH eyes $0.050 as bulls step in

The PYTH/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and efficient despite the coin adding 9% to its value in the last 24 hours.

The technical indicators have flipped bullish, indicating that the bulls are now in control of the market. The RSI of 63 is well above the neutral 50 and would enter the overbought territory if the rally persists.

PYTH/USDT 4H Chart

The MACD lines are also within the positive region, indicating a strong bullish bias. If the rally continues, PYTH could retest the $0.050 psychological level for the first time since March 17.

However, if the bears regain control, PYTH could retest the Thursday low of $0.038 over the next few hours or days.

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Drift Seeks Contact With The Hacker After $280M Exploit

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Drift Seeks Contact With The Hacker After $280M Exploit

Drift Protocol, a Solana-based decentralized exchange (DEX), said Friday it had opened onchain contact with wallets tied to funds stolen in the exploit that outside firms have estimated at roughly $280 million to $286 million.

Drift said on X that it had initiated onchain contact with wallets holding the stolen Ether (ETH), seeking to open a line of communication.

The team sent onchain messages from its Ethereum address (0x0934faC) to four wallets linked to the exploiter at the time of publication, urging the attacker to reach out via Blockscan chat. “We are ready to speak,” Drift said.

Onchain messaging has become a common tactic in exploit response, allowing protocols to communicate directly with attackers while preserving anonymity. In past cases, such as the Euler Finance hack, similar outreach led to the partial recovery of funds.

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Drift’s onchain message to the Drift Exploiter on Friday. Source: Etherscan

Anonymous sender tries to pressure the attacker

Drift’s communication came hours after an unknown sender using the ENS name readnow.eth also reached out to wallets linked to the attacker on Thursday via onchain messages.

The sender claimed to know the identities behind the attack and demanded a payment of 1,000 ETH in exchange for withholding information.

Source: Etherscan

The claims could not be independently verified and may represent an attempt to mislead or pressure the wallet holder. The incident highlights how, alongside official communications, unverified messages can circulate onchain after crypto exploits.

Solana fallout keeps spreading

According to SolanaFloor, Drift’s exploit has so far affected at least 20 Solana protocols, including the decentralized finance (DeFi) platform Gauntlet, which was estimated to be impacted to the scale of $6.4 million.

Blockchain security platform Cyvers said the impact was still expanding as of Friday morning, with no funds being recovered 48 hours past the attack.

Cyvers said that the attack was likely a “weeks-long, staged operation,” noting that the attacker set up durable nonces, a Solana feature allowing users to pre-sign transactions for future execution, days before the exploit.

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Related: Crypto hackers steal $169M from 34 DeFi protocols in Q1: DefiLlama

“This closely mirrors the Bybit hack, different technique, same root issue: signers unknowingly approving malicious transactions,” Cyvers added.

Some industry observers, including Ledger chief technology officer Charles Guillemet, suggested the exploit may involve North Korea-linked actors, though details remain unconfirmed.

Magazine: Nobody knows if quantum secure cryptography will even work

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