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XRP price forms key bullish reversal pattern as weighted funding rate turns negative

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XRP price has formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern on the 4-hour chart.

XRP price has been forming a major bullish reversal pattern over the past three weeks. If confirmed, it could lead to a sharp rebound in the token’s price.

Summary

  • XRP price fell 4% on Wednesday as markets braced for the release of U.S. CPI data.
  • XRP is close to confirming an inverse head and shoulders pattern on the 4-hour chart.

According to data from crypto.news, XRP (XRP) price fell 4% to $1.38 last check on Wednesday, March 11. The fifth-largest crypto asset, with a market cap of $84.5 billion, has dropped nearly 16% from its February high and over 40% from its highest point this year.

XRP price fell as investors remained cautious ahead of the release of U.S. CPI data, set to be released later today. A hotter-than-expected print could force the Fed to maintain its restrictive policy stance, while a cooler reading could alleviate pressure and potentially trigger a pivot, boosting investor demand for risk assets.

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While investors remain in the wait-and-watch mode over signs of persistent inflation, a look at XRP charts provides an interesting technical outlook.

On the 4-hour XRP/USDT chart, XRP price action has been shaping an inverse head and shoulders pattern over the past three weeks. 

XRP price has formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern on the 4-hour chart.
XRP price has formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern on the 4-hour chart — March 11 | Source: crypto.news

The pattern is formed when an asset creates three distinct troughs called shoulders with a deeper middle trough that forms the head of the pattern. Once confirmed, it has typically been followed by sustained rallies over subsequent sessions.

For now, the next key resistance level lies at $1.42, which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

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A decisive breakout from it could confirm the pattern. Once confirmed, XRP price could springboard to $1.67, a target calculated by adding the height of the inverse head and shoulders pattern formed to the point at which it would break above the neckline of the pattern.

Momentum indicators suggested that bulls were at an advantage at press time. The MACD lines, which measure the strength of price trends, were pointing upwards while the Money Flow Index showed a reading of 62, signaling healthy buying pressure.

One major catalyst that could serve as a tailwind for XRP price is demand across the derivatives market. Notably, XRP’s weighted funding rate has turned negative. When funding rates turn negative, it signals that the market has become heavily one-sided, with short sellers effectively paying long holders to maintain their bearish bets.

If XRP price experiences a potential short squeeze, it could be the primary engine that drives the price through the $1.42 neckline to confirm the inverse head and shoulders pattern.

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Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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BTC manages quick gain as oil drops $3 per barrel

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Crypto majors dive despite tech-led lift in Asian markets

After retreating back to the $69,000 area during early U.S. morning hours Wednesday, bitcoin has quickly spiked to nearly $71,000.

Other crypto assets, including ether (ETH), solana (SOL) and XRP, saw the same sharp moves higher.

The gains appeared to come as crude oil quickly reversed most of its session’s large gains, dropping $3 per barrel in a matter of minutes. At press time, WTI crude futures for April were at $85, up 2% for the day.

Crude’s drop also benefited stocks, with the Nasdaq moving from a small decline to a gain of 0.5% in early U.S. trade.

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Crypto-related shares were mixed, with Strategy (MSTR), Galaxy Digital (GLXY) and Bullish (BLSH) posting modest advances, while Coinbase (COIN) and eToro (ETOR) were slightly lower.

With the ongoing war against Iran, risk markets this week have been mostly ruled by oil’s price action. Stocks and crypto plunged on Sunday evening as oil surged to $120, but then gained as oil quickly retreated.

Fresh inflation data

Wednesday’s February CPI report was in line with economist forecasts, up 0.3% on a month-to-month basis, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.4%. Next month, however, could show a much different picture due to the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war, posing the question of whether the Federal Reserve will respond to the temporary shock or take a more hawkish stance after being caught off guard during the last inflation cycle.

Stephen Coltman, head of macro at 21shares says the Fed’s choice will be critical, noting that investors will be watching next week’s Fed meeting closely for signs on how officials plan to react.

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As for bitcoin, the rise in next month’s data is likely “already baked in the cake,” he said.

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Arthur Hayes Deploys Net Liquidity Strategy: Not Buying BTC Now Even If He Has Only $1

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Arthur Hayes Deploys Net Liquidity Strategy: Not Buying BTC Now Even If He Has Only $1

Arthur Hayes has officially stopped buying Bitcoin ($BTC). The BitMEX co-founder says he will not deploy fresh capital until the Federal Reserve explicitly expands the money supply.

With Bitcoin struggling to break resistance, Hayes is tracking a specific “Net Liquidity” metric that suggests the current rally lacks fundamental fuel.

He is waiting for the centralized banking cartel to restart the money printer before chasing the market any higher.

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Why Arthur Hayes Is Slamming the Brakes on Bitcoin

Hayes’s hesitation stems from his Net Liquidity framework, a formula that subtracts the Treasury General Account (TGA) and Reverse Repo (RRP) balances from the Fed’s total balance sheet.

While nominal prices are high, real dollar liquidity has not expanded enough to support a sustained breakout above $90,000. Hayes views the current market as a trap for traders expecting a straight line up.

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“If I had $1 to invest right now, would I be putting it into Bitcoin? No. I would wait,” Hayes said on a podcast. He argues that while geopolitical tensions usually drive safe-haven assets, the only thing that truly matters for Macro Crypto cycles is fiat debasement.

This thesis is reinforced by market data showing Bitcoin decoupling from traditional bond yields, a divergence that historically signals impending volatility.

Hayes warns that without an immediate pivot back to Quantitative Easing, the “American war machine” alone cannot sustain asset prices. He believes the market is pricing in liquidity that hasn’t arrived yet. If the Fed refuses to loosen its monetary policy, Hayes predicts the current chop could move downwards.

He is positioning for a scenario where the TGA drains slowly, leaving risk assets starved for capital in the short term. Only when the printing press whirs to life will the Net Liquidity conditions turn green for aggressive accumulation.

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The Levels to Watch for Bitcoin

Bitcoin Price Analysis currently shows a market caught between institutional accumulation and macro exhaustion. Bitcoin is trading under the $90,000 psychological ceiling, a level that has rejected bulls multiple times. Hayes suggests that a failure here could trigger a slide toward $60,000, flushing out late longs.

$60,000 is the level that matters most. If price action breaks below this support, Hayes anticipates a “massive sell-off” driven by cascading liquidations. Concurrently, Wall Street is buying Bitcoin strategically but is not yet invested enough to chase breakouts unconditionally.

Arthur Hayes Deploys Net Liquidity Strategy: Not Buying BTC Now Even If He Has Only $1
Source: TradingView

Conversely, the bull case requires a definitive reclaim of $90,000 on high volume. If spot buyers can push through this resistance, the path to $100,000 opens up quickly, invalidating the bearish liquidity thesis.

Traders looking for confirmation might look at simple math that nailed the last BTC bottom to identify safe entry points if Hayes’ predicted dip materializes.

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If Net Liquidity remains flat, Bitcoin likely ranges sideways or bleeds slowly. But if the Fed is forced to cut rates due to external shocks, the $90,000 cap will likely shatter overnight.

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The post Arthur Hayes Deploys Net Liquidity Strategy: Not Buying BTC Now Even If He Has Only $1 appeared first on Cryptonews.

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Oracle error adds to turmoil at DeFi giant Aave

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Oracle error adds to turmoil at DeFi giant Aave

Almost $27 million worth of liquidations were triggered on DeFi lending giant Aave yesterday, thanks to a faulty price cap oracle update.

The Correlated Asset Price Oracle (CAPO), run by risk manager Chaos Labs, sets caps for the price ratio between correlated assets, in order to protect against price manipulation attacks on the protocol. 

In a post to the Aave governance forum, Chaos Labs explained that, due to a timestamp mismatch, the price ratio between wstETH and stETH was capped below the current market rate, causing a price drop of 2.85%.

This was enough to liquidate those positions close enough to the liquidation threshold. 

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The company’s dashboard (filtered for wstETH) shows $21.2 million of liquidations on Aave’s Ethereum Core instance, and a further $5.7 million on its Prime instance.

Read more: Aave developer BDG Labs to ‘cease contribution’ after DAO drama

Chaos Labs’ founder, Omer Goldberg, promised that “all affected users will be fully reimbursed.” He says that, since launching over a year ago, its oracles “have streamed over 1,200 payloads for ~3k+ parameters, with zero incidents.”

While the protocol didn’t suffer bad debt, liquidators profited approximately 500 ether (ETH) worth $875,000. Around 30% of this (154 ETH) was recovered, and will be used to reimburse users, with the remainder coming from the Aave treasury.

A similar pricing error resulted in $1.8 million of bad debt DeFi protocol Moonwell last month. 

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In an AI-coauthored update, the ratio between ETH and cbETH was used to price cbETH in dollars, liquidating borrowers whose collateral was suddenly worth $1.12 instead of around $2,200.

The damage for Aave may not have been too severe this time, but one blockchain security professional questioned why the changes aren’t run through a transaction simulation before going live, a simple sanity check which could prevent more serious losses, and even bad debt, in future.

Aave in crisis

The malfunction comes during a period of tumult for decentralized finance’s number one protocol.

Since December last year, the DAO and Aave Labs have been in dispute over who really controls Aave. The spat has seen DAO service providers accuse founder Stani Kulechov’s Aave Labs of playing dirty and pushing through plans for an upcoming v4 of the protocol.

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Indeed, two key service providers have recently thrown in the towel.

Developer BGD Labs left last month over Labs’ snubbing of the wildly successful v3, in favor of the Labs-developed v4.

Shortly after, Marc Zeller’s ACI reached “breaking point” following the recent Aave Will Win vote, which swung narrowly in Labs’ favor.

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Aave Oracle Glitch Causes $27M Liquidations: CAPO Misconfiguration Confirmed

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Aave Oracle Glitch Causes $27M Liquidations — CAPO Misconfiguration Confirmed

A misconfigured Oracle system in Aave triggered $27 million in forced liquidations on March 10, undervaluing wrapped staked Ether by 2.85% against its actual market rate.

According to the post-mortem by Chaos Labs, the CAPO oracle error caused Aave V3 Ethereum Core and Prime instances to apply an exchange rate of roughly 1.1939 wstETH-per-ETH when the live onchain rate was approximately 1.228, enough of a gap to push 34 high-leverage E-Mode positions below their liquidation thresholds automatically.

It resulted in the liquidation of 10,938 wstETH. The protocol says it incurred no bad debt and is moving to compensate all affected users.

The Damage: 34 Users, $27M in Liquidations, and 499 ETH in Bot Profits

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The oracle glitch liquidated 34 users, with the total volume reaching $27 million in wstETH positions.

Liquidation bots moved quickly, capturing 499 ETH in bonuses, approximately $1.2 million, by executing against positions that should not have been eligible for liquidation at that moment.

Aave founder and CEO Stani Kulechov confirmed in a Wednesday post that the protocol generated no bad debt from the incident.

Of the 499 ETH that went to liquidators, Aave recaptured 141 ETH ($285,000) through BuilderNet refunds and an additional 13 ETH in liquidation fees.

Those recovered funds will flow directly to affected users as compensation, with DAO treasury funds covering any remaining shortfall up to the full 345 ETH identified as the excess liquidation windfall.

Lido contributors confirmed the event had no connection to wstETH or the Lido staking protocol itself; the issue originated entirely within Aave’s oracle configuration layer.

With Ethereum price defending the $2,000 support zone around the time of the incident, the liquidation values were amplified by the broader market context for ETH-denominated collateral.

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Chaos Labs Confirms Aave CAPO Oracle Misconfiguration: Here Is What They Found

Chaos Labs, Aave’s external risk management partner, confirmed the incident stemmed from what it described as an onchain configuration misalignment under differing onchain update constraints, not a design flaw in the CAPO system or in the core oracle infrastructure of Aave.

The team emphasized that Chaos Risk Oracles had processed over 1,200 payloads and more than 3,000 parameters across Aave markets without incident prior to March 10.

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Aave Oracle Glitch Causes $27M Liquidations — CAPO Misconfiguration Confirmed
24-hour liquidations on Aave. Source: Chaos Labs

Chaos Labs quickly contained the situation: borrow caps on wstETH were reduced immediately, and snapshot parameters were manually realigned to restore oracle accuracy. Kulechov noted in his public statement that the configuration issue had already been remediated by the time the post-mortem was published, and praised the team’s response speed in limiting broader DeFi risk contagion.

The Aave governance post-mortem marks this as the first operational failure in CAPO’s deployment history on Aave V3, despite more than a year of live operation across multiple markets.

What Traders and Aave Users Are Watching Next

The immediate focus is on the full reimbursement timeline. Aave DAO service providers are finalizing compensation for all 34 affected users following the initial 141 ETH refund via BuilderNet, with a formal governance announcement expected shortly.

Beyond compensation, governance teams are conducting a broader review of CAPO parameters across all Aave markets, updating stale snapshots and building out enhanced monitoring to flag rate divergences before they reach liquidation-threshold proximity.

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Whether that review produces binding parameter update standards or remains advisory is the governance question to watch.

If the DAO formalizes automated CAPO sync requirements and publishes updated risk oracle documentation, the incident may ultimately strengthen Aave’s operational credibility. If the review stalls at the discussion stage, the reputational cost will compound the financial one.

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The post Aave Oracle Glitch Causes $27M Liquidations: CAPO Misconfiguration Confirmed appeared first on Cryptonews.

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CBI Arrests Darwin Labs CTO in GainBitcoin Cryptocurrency Case

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CBI Arrests Darwin Labs CTO in GainBitcoin Cryptocurrency Case

India’s Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) has arrested Ayush Varshney, co-founder and chief technology officer of Darwin Labs Private Limited, in connection with the long-running GainBitcoin cryptocurrency fraud investigation.

According to a Wednesday press release shared via the CBIs official X account, Varshney was detained at Mumbai airport on Monday while attempting to leave India after a Look Out Circular had been issued against him. He was formally arrested and handed over to the CBI on Tuesday.

The CBI said Darwin Labs played a central role in building the technological infrastructure used by the alleged scheme, including the GainBitcoin investor platform and associated tools used to manage payments and wallets.

The arrest is the latest development in India’s investigation into the multi-million-dollar GainBitcoin scheme, one of the country’s largest alleged cryptocurrency investment frauds.

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Source: CBI India

Investigators link developer to infrastructure behind alleged scheme

According to the CBI, the GainBitcoin scheme was promoted through Variabletech Pte. Ltd. and allegedly promised investors monthly returns of about 10% in Bitcoin (BTC) for up to 18 months. “The funds collected from investors were subsequently misappropriated,” the CBI said.

Related: India’s central bank proposes linking BRICS digital currencies for trade: Reuters

The agency said Darwin Labs and its co-founders, including Varshney, Sahil Baghla and Nikunj Jain, were involved in designing and deploying a cryptocurrency token known as MCAP along with its associated ERC-20 smart contract.

CBI added that the company also helped develop key components of the platform’s technical infrastructure, including the GBMiners.com mining pool, a Bitcoin payment gateway, the Coin Bank Bitcoin wallet, and the GainBitcoin investor website used to interact with participants.

Decade-old case involved 8,000 investors and $790 million

GainBitcoin emerged in the mid-2010s as a cloud-mining investment platform that encouraged users to purchase Bitcoin and deposit it with the service in exchange for promised fixed returns.

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The CBI alleged that the scheme eventually relied on a multi-level marketing structure in which payouts were tied to recruiting new investors. As new deposits slowed, the platform reportedly shifted payouts from Bitcoin to its in-house MCAP token, which had a significantly lower value.