TLDR:

• Bitcoin faces continued structural pressure amid inactive stablecoin liquidity.
• Stablecoin Supply Ratio shows negative readings across short, medium, and long-term oscillators.
• Price rebounds struggle as capital remains in stablecoins instead of spot exposure.
• Market shift depends on renewed stablecoin demand, not short-term price momentum.

Bitcoin continues to trade under structural pressure, with the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) remaining negative across 90-day, 200-day, and 365-day oscillators.

Following a peak above $120,000 mid-year, Bitcoin’s price shifted from expansion to contraction, producing successive lower highs into late Q4 and early Q1.

The break below the zero line signaled a structural change in liquidity, reflecting deeper market conditions rather than temporary fluctuations.

Stablecoin Supply Remains Dormant Despite Available Capital

A compressed SSR indicates that stablecoin supply is large compared to Bitcoin’s market capitalization. During expansion phases, rising oscillator readings signal capital moving from stablecoins into Bitcoin, supporting upward momentum.

Currently, stablecoin liquidity exists but remains largely inactive, failing to convert into spot exposure.

The negative SSR across all timeframes suggests that defensive positioning dominates the market. Investors appear hesitant, even as substantial capital remains ready to deploy.

Source: Cryptoquant

This creates a divergence where available liquidity does not translate into buying pressure or price support.

Earlier in the year, positive oscillator readings correlated with strong price structure and controlled volatility. Sustained upside movement occurred as stablecoin demand actively entered Bitcoin, reinforcing momentum. The current absence of such behavior demonstrates passive liquidity conditions.

Downside Volatility Persists Amid Limited Demand

Following the rollover of SSR readings across short, medium, and long-term oscillators, downside volatility has increased.

Price rebounds have lacked follow-through, reflecting insufficient absorption of supply during corrective phases. This trend shows that market participants are not actively deploying stablecoin capital to stabilize Bitcoin.

Historical on-chain data shows extended negative SSR regimes often precede larger inflection points. However, confirmation requires changes in investor behavior and renewed stablecoin deployment.

Without this, the market may continue under structural pressure, as liquidity remains passive despite readiness.

Market observers note that the next meaningful shift in Bitcoin will likely coincide with renewed stablecoin demand rather than purely price-driven momentum.

The system’s current configuration emphasizes the need for capital rotation to support price recovery. Recent market commentary also reflects the cautious stance of investors waiting for clearer signals.

The International Monetary Fund said Wednesday that US inflation will not return to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target until early 2027.

The assessment, part of the IMF’s first Article IV review of the Trump administration, signals that meaningful rate relief remains distant despite the president’s optimism.

IMF Flags Fiscal Risks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told reporters the US current account deficit is “too big.” The Fund estimates it at 3.5% to 4% of GDP in the near term.

But the IMF’s prescription clashes with the administration’s approach. Nigel Chalk, the Fund’s Western Hemisphere Director, said fiscal consolidation — not tariffs — is the best path to narrowing the deficit. The recommendation comes after the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s broad emergency tariffs as illegal, forcing the administration to invoke Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 for replacement levies.

The fiscal picture is stark. The IMF projects US federal deficits will remain between 7% and 8% of GDP in the coming years. That is more than double the levels targeted by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Consolidated government debt is on track to reach 140% of GDP by 2031.

“The upward path for the public debt-GDP ratio and increasing levels of short-term debt-GDP represent a growing stability risk to the US and global economy,” the Fund warned.

Trump’s Rate Optimism vs. Structural Reality

The IMF review landed one day after Trump’s State of the Union address, where the president painted a rosy picture on borrowing costs. He claimed mortgage rates had hit four-year lows and that annual mortgage costs had dropped nearly $5,000 since he took office. He framed lower rates as the solution to what he called the “Biden-created housing problem.”

Yet the IMF’s numbers tell a different story. With inflation not reaching the Fed’s target until 2027 and fiscal deficits running at twice the administration’s own goals, the structural case for higher-for-longer rates is strengthening. The Fund pegged 2026 US growth at a resilient 2.4%, leaving the Fed little urgency to ease.

What It Means for Crypto

The implications for risk assets are clear. Sticky inflation and an expanding fiscal deficit reduce the probability of aggressive rate cuts this year. For crypto markets, which rallied on rate-cut expectations through late 2025, the IMF’s assessment reinforces caution.

The deeper irony is that the administration’s own fiscal expansion — including what the IMF notes are historically large tax cuts — is the primary driver of the deficit that keeps rates elevated. Trump wants lower rates but is pursuing policies that structurally prevent them.

The IMF stopped short of predicting a crisis, noting that “the risk of sovereign stress in the US is low.” But the trajectory it describes — rising debt, persistent deficits, delayed disinflation — points to an environment where rate relief comes slowly, if at all.

TLDR

• t54 Labs raised 5 million dollars in a seed funding round co-led by Franklin Templeton and Ripple.
• The company builds identity and risk tools for autonomous agents that conduct financial transactions.
• Anagram and PL Capital joined the round along with several crypto-focused investors.
• t54 operates on networks including XRP Ledger, Solana, and Base.
• The startup plans to hire engineers and a developer relations lead to expand its platform.

t54 Labs has secured $5 million in seed funding to build a trust layer for agentic finance. Anagram, PL Capital, and Franklin Templeton co-led the round with support from Ripple and others. Founder Chandler Fang confirmed the raise and outlined plans to expand infrastructure and hiring.

The San Francisco-based startup launched in January 2025 and focuses on identity and compliance tools for autonomous agents. Fang said no investor received board or advisory seats in the round. He declined to share the valuation or timeline details.

Franklin Templeton and Ripple Back t54’s Seed Financing

Anagram and PL Capital co-led the seed round alongside Franklin Templeton. Ripple, Virtuals Ventures, Blockchain Coinvestors, and ABCDE also participated in the financing. Fang described the raise as the company’s first external funding round.

Fang said t54 employs 12 staff members and plans new hires. The company will add two full-time engineers and one developer relations or business development lead. These hires will support product development and institutional partnerships.

Tony Pecore from Franklin Templeton addressed the investment in a statement. He said, “t54 is building the trust and verification framework that institutional finance will require.” He added that institutions need infrastructure as autonomous agents enter financial markets.

Fang stated that no investor secured governance rights in the company. He confirmed that the round structure remains undisclosed. He also declined to comment on valuation metrics.

Platform Targets Identity, Risk, and Credit for Autonomous Agents

t54 builds tools that verify and monitor AI agents conducting financial transactions. Fang said agents lack standardized identity checks and risk controls. He explained that businesses need accountability when autonomous systems move funds.

The platform includes four core components that address these gaps. It offers identity verification under a system called “know your agent.” It also runs a real-time risk engine that flags suspicious activity before settlement.

The company plans to extend credit lines to verified agents. Credit decisions will rely on identity records, risk scores, and transaction history. The system also combines identity, risk controls, and settlement in one interface.

Fang said, “We’re building the full trust stack that lets businesses hand financial operations to autonomous agents.”

He added that blockchain serves as a settlement and accountability layer. The infrastructure operates across multiple payment rails.

t54 currently runs on the XRP Ledger, Solana, and Base networks. The company also created x402-secure for the Coinbase-incubated x402 agent payment protocol. Last month, Evernorth announced plans to integrate t54’s tools into its XRP Ledger treasury operations.

Evernorth aims to raise over $1 billion for institutional XRP holdings. Under the partnership, Evernorth will use t54 infrastructure for autonomous treasury management. Fang said the collaboration expands institutional deployment of the platform.

A former contender for governor of California has been banned from Kalshi after betting on his own candidacy last year in violation of insider trading rules, the prediction market platform said on Wednesday.

According to a statement from Kalshi’s head of enforcement, Robert DeNault, the politician bet about $200 on his candidacy for governor of California and posted about it on X, leading to a five-year suspension on the prediction market platform and a $2,000 penalty.

Kalshi did not name the politician, but said he is no longer running for governor and is now running for Congress.

The description appears to fit Kyle Langford, a former Republican turned Democrat who is now running for election to the US House to represent California’s 26th Congressional District.

In an X post published on May 25, 2025, Langford shared a video of himself placing a $98.76 bet on Kalshi, wagering that he would win.

Kalshi said the account did not withdraw any profits and that the case was reported to the CFTC.

Cointelegraph reached out to Langford for further comment but didn’t receive an immediate response.

Meanwhile, Kalshi said it also handed out penalties to a YouTube editor who traded about $4,000 on YouTube stream markets between August and September 2025 — also violating Kalshi’s insider trading rules, resulting in a two-year penalty and a roughly $20,000 fine.

“Our surveillance systems flagged his near-perfect trading success on markets with low odds, which were statistically anomalous,” said Kalshi, which, with the help of other traders on the platform, identified where he worked and concluded that he likely had access to material non-public information.

While Kalshi didn’t name the YouTube editor, mainstream media have widely reported that the editor is Artem Kaptur, an employee of the popular YouTuber MrBeast.

Kalshi, a Commodity Futures Trading Commission-regulated platform, said it has investigated 200 cases and frozen several flagged accounts. It has more than a dozen active cases.

Earlier this month, Kalshi strengthened its surveillance efforts by establishing a surveillance audit committee and partnering with crypto trading surveillance platform Solidus Labs to “detect, investigate, and address market abuse.”

Those efforts come in response to an uptick in regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets as they enter the mainstream.