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XRP’s Next Critical Levels to Watch After 20% Bounce

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XRP's Next Critical Levels to Watch After 20% Bounce

XRP remains in a corrective phase across both USD and BTC pairs. The recent bounce from locally oversold conditions has eased immediate downside pressure, but the broader structure still reflects a dominant downtrend, with rallies so far failing to reclaim major resistance zones or longer-term moving averages.

Ripple Price Analysis: The USDT Pair

On the USDT chart, XRP continues to trade within a descending channel that has governed the price action since late last year. The market recently reacted from the $1.20 support band, producing a short-term rebound toward the mid-channel area around $1.45–$1.50.

This move has not yet challenged the primary resistance cluster between $1.75 and $1.90, where prior breakdown support, the local channel ceiling, and the key 100-day moving average (yellow) converge.

As long as the asset holds above the $1.20 demand region, the structure allows for further relief toward the $1.80 zone; a decisive rejection there would confirm the downtrend, while a loss of the $1.30 short-term low would expose the next major support in the $1.10–$1.20 area.

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The BTC Pair

Against Bitcoin, XRP is consolidating near the lower half of its multi-month range around the 2,000 sats after an extended period of underperformance. The pair remains capped by layered resistance between 2,200 and 2,300 sats, reinforced by the downward-sloping 100-day (yellow) and 200-day (orange) moving averages, while a broader supply zone sits higher in the 2,400–2,500 sats region.

Recent stability above 2,000 sats and a modest improvement in momentum indicators point to short-term mean reversion potential, but the relative trend stays bearish as long as XRP/BTC trades below the 2,400–2,500 sats band, where a sustained breakout would be required to signal a more durable shift in market leadership.

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Crypto World

Will MicroStrategy Share Prices Drops Below $100 Soon?

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Strategy Buys More

The MicroStrategy stock price couldn’t continue its upswing despite the company continuing to buy more Bitcoin. Its latest $40 million purchase, on February 23, came just as the stock began sliding again. But that wasn’t the entire story.

While MSTR stock dipped by over 9% on February 24, a 16% bounce followed on February 25, showing excitement. At press time, it’s down over 3% since yesterday’s close. The stock is now down about 4% from last Friday’s high and almost 63% over six months, raising fresh concerns about a deeper breakdown, all while the BTC stash was loaded again.

Latest $40 Million Bitcoin Buy Fails to Stop MSTR’s Slide

MicroStrategy added 592 Bitcoin on February 23, spending about $40 million at an average price near $67,286. This pushed its total holdings to 717,722 Bitcoin, with an overall average cost basis of $76,020.

Normally, such aggressive buying supports investor confidence because it signals long-term conviction in Bitcoin’s future.

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Strategy Buys More
Strategy Buys More: Strategy

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But at this time, the MicroStrategy stock price continued to fall rather than stabilize, moving steadily on its bear-flag breakdown path that started on February 19, despite a few rebounds. This weakness closely reflects Bitcoin’s own behavior.

Bear-Flag Breakdown
Bear-Flag Breakdown: TradingView

The stock had briefly rallied to $137 on February 25, riding Bitcoin’s rebound from $64,500 to $69,400, a 2.5% move. However, as Bitcoin cooled again, MicroStrategy immediately reversed lower, showing how tightly its performance remains tied to Bitcoin’s direction.

MSTR-BTC Link
MSTR-BTC Link: TradingView

This shows MicroStrategy is still trading like a leveraged Bitcoin proxy. When Bitcoin pauses or weakens, MicroStrategy often falls faster because its valuation already assumes strong upside from its Bitcoin holdings.

The latest Bitcoin purchase did not change that dynamic, raising a more important question: whether institutional investors still support the stock.

Institutional Money Flow Signals Growing Exit Risk

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator is now flashing a warning sign. CMF measures whether large investors are buying or selling by combining price and volume.

When CMF rises above zero, it signals accumulation, meaning institutional investors are buying. When it drops below zero, it signals distribution, meaning capital is leaving the asset.

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Earlier, between January 12 and February 23, CMF rose while MicroStrategy’s stock price fell, with a few bounces above the zero line. This bullish divergence showed that institutional investors were quietly accumulating shares during weakness. That accumulation even translated into net positive flows at times, leading to sizeable rebounds.

It even helped fuel a 33% rebound between February 5 and February 25. However, the situation is different now. The CMF has flatlined, hugging the zero line. This shows institutional money is undecided at the moment.

CMF Weakens As Investors Remain Undecided About MSTR Shares
CMF Weakens As Investors Remain Undecided About MSTR Shares: TradingView

What’s troubling is that the shift happened immediately after MicroStrategy announced its latest Bitcoin purchase on February 23. CMF suggests institutional investors may not be accumulating MicroStrategy stock despite its Bitcoin buying.

This disconnect weakens the bullish case and suggests confidence in the stock itself may be fading. The next direction the CMF line takes might decide the fate of the MSTR stock price.

At the same time, momentum indicators show that the recent drop (between February 25 and February 26) was not unexpected, as underlying strength had already been weakening.

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Bearish Divergence Warned of MSTR Stock Price Drop

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures momentum strength on a scale from 0 to 100, showed a bearish divergence before the recent drop.

Between December 9 and February 25, the MicroStrategy stock price formed a lower high, while RSI formed a higher high. This pattern signals weakening momentum because the price is rising without strong buying support.

This type of divergence often appears before major pullbacks. Similar divergences have appeared multiple times in recent months, and each one led to sharp corrections.

For example, a previous divergence completed in mid-Jan triggered a 45% crash, forming the major downtrend that still defines the stock’s broader structure.

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Divergence Flashes for MicroStrategy
Divergence Flashes: TradingView

A recent one, concluding on February 20, led to a near 13% dip. The current one has already eaten into 6% of the gains, but because the broader bearish pattern remains active, this decline may be only the early stage of a larger move lower. That wouldn’t be great news for the MicroStrategy shareholders.

MicroStrategy Stock Price Breakdown Structure Points Toward $70

The MicroStrategy stock price has already broken below a bear flag pattern, which is a continuation pattern that forms during temporary rebounds inside larger downtrends. When this pattern breaks down, it usually leads to another strong leg lower.

Right now, the most important support level sits near $119. If this level fails, the next support appears near $106, followed by a stronger technical level near $85.

However, the full breakdown projection based on Fibonacci retracement levels points toward the $71 (the $70 zone) region, which aligns with the 0.786 Fibonacci level and pole’s projected 45%+ dip.

MSTR Price Analysis
MSTR Price Analysis: TradingView

On the upside, the first sign of strength would only appear if MicroStrategy reclaims $139. However, the broader bearish structure would remain intact unless the stock breaks above $155, which would invalidate the breakdown pattern and signal a potential trend reversal.

Until those resistance levels are reclaimed, the current structure suggests MicroStrategy remains vulnerable to further downside, with the $70 zone now emerging as a realistic technical target if $85 gives way, given Bitcoin’s continued weakness.

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Court sets deadline for US to address Sam Bankman-Fried‘s potential trial

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Law, Trial, Court, Crimes, Donald Trump, Sam Bankman-Fried, FTX

Lawyers representing the US government in the case against Sam “SBF” Bankman-Fried have two weeks to respond to the former FTX CEO’s motion for a new criminal trial.

In a Wednesday filing in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York, Judge Lewis Kaplan said that the US government shall respond by March 11 to SBF’s motion for a new trial. The former FTX CEO, who was convicted of seven felony counts in 2023 and later sentenced to 25 years in prison, requested a new trial earlier this month, claiming that new witness testimony could help bolster his case.

Law, Trial, Court, Crimes, Donald Trump, Sam Bankman-Fried, FTX
Source: Courtlistener

Bankman-Fried, once revered by many as one of the most prominent faces representing the crypto and blockchain industry, was at the center of the controversy around the collapse of FTX. He stepped down as CEO in November 2022, later facing criminal charges in the US for the misuse of user funds.

After Kaplan ordered the former CEO to serve 25 years in prison in March 2024, SBF’s lawyers filed to appeal the conviction and sentence. As of Thursday, the US Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit had not reached a ruling on the filing.

Related: Kalshi bans US politician over alleged insider trading violation

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Former Alameda Research CEO Caroline Ellison, who testified against SBF at trial as part of a plea deal with US authorities, was released in January, having spent 440 days in US custody. Ryan Salame, the former co-CEO of FTX Digital Markets, was sentenced to more than seven years and remains incarcerated at the time of publication.

Is Bankman-Fried angling for a presidential pardon?

Although the former CEO was largely silent on social media for his first year in prison, Bankman-Fried later began posting messages supporting US President Donald Trump and challenging information about the collapse of FTX.

In March 2025, SBF gave an interview to political commentator Tucker Carlson — a move that reportedly led to his transfer to a federal correctional institution — claiming that he had better relationships with Republicans than Democrats.

This year, he has posted several times to X, claiming that there had been “political bias” in his case. Bankman-Fried praised Trump’s actions in “standing up” to such bias, while also criticizing Kaplan for overseeing the civil defamation case brought against the then-presidential candidate in 2023.

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Law, Trial, Court, Crimes, Donald Trump, Sam Bankman-Fried, FTX
Source: Sam Bankman-Fried

However, despite Bankman-Fried’s efforts and speculation by many in the crypto industry, the White House has repeatedly said that Trump is not considering a pardon for the former CEO, both in a January New York Times interview and according to a Tuesday report by Fortune. Trump has pardoned several figures in the crypto and blockchain industry since taking office, including former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao and Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht.

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