History Says ‘GTA 6’ May Be the Biggest Game of the Year, but Not the Best

Grand Theft Auto VI will be the biggest game of the year, probably even the biggest of all time. However, history shows that may not be enough to be considered the best. Rockstar’s last two blockbusters, Grand Theft Auto V and Red Dead Redemption 2, performed on a scale that most developers could only dream of. Yet there’s one achievement that seems to keep slipping through their fingers: a Game of the Year award.

Now in 2026, three games have a high chance of making history repeat. Marvel’s Wolverine arrives on September 15 with Insomniac’s impressive Spider-Man pedigree behind it. Gears of War: E-Day releases a bit later on October 6, a return to form that looks to deliver an emotional campaign alongside a bombastic multiplayer suite. Lastly, The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time remake is the wildcard, a modern take on a game that still stands on top as Metacritic’s highest rated game of all time. GTA VI will surely outsell all three titles combined, but one of them has the potential to block Rockstar from a total victory.

Unfortunately for Rockstar, It’s Not a Popularity Contest

Image via Rockstar Games

It may sound hard to believe with Rockstar’s track record of massively successful and highly rated releases, but there’s a precedent that is hard to ignore. At multiple big award ceremonies, Grand Theft Auto V and Red Dead Redemption 2 came up short to The Last of Us and God of War (2018), respectively. Neither winner comes close to competing with the scope and ambition of Rockstar’s open world games, but what they do excel in is offering focused, emotional experiences that deliver on quality every step of the journey.

That’s the pattern worth analyzing. Panels have twice looked at the largest game of the group, in both popularity and ambition, and valued the more intimate experience higher. Although gamers have picked their winner by purchasing a combined 317 million copies of GTA V and RDR2 so far, the critics aren’t fazed by the numbers. With the lineup as stacked as it is this fall and winter, it’s easy to assume the 2026 award ceremonies will end the same way for Rockstar.

‘Marvel’s Wolverine’ Comes In Swinging

Image via Insomniac Games

Marvel’s Wolverine is the first big threat to launch and Insomniac’s track record should speak for itself. Since Marvel’s Spider-Man launched in 2018, they’ve become one of PlayStation’s premier studios, delivering fast-paced, action-packed superhero adaptations that set the bar. However, they’ve never been able to take home the big trophy despite three out of four of their last games being nominated. With Wolverine trimming the open-world fat that was one of the few sources of tedium for the Spider-Man games, Insomniac could have its best shot yet at taking the top spot.

Even the combat in Marvel’s Wolverine looks to have upped the ante over their previous efforts. The gameplay shown off looks to be more visceral, more intense, and more engaging. What they lose in Spider-Man‘s fluid web-swinging, they make up for in pure adrenaline-pumping action. With a focused scope and PlayStation’s signature cinematic flair that has succeeded in defeating Rockstar twice, Marvel’s Wolverine looks to be the exact type of game that could snatch the gold from Grand Theft Auto VI.

‘Gears of War: E-Day’ Saws a Path to a GOTY Nod

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Gears of War: E-Day is a game that is likely to have an even bigger critical impact than Wolverine. The multiplayer open beta launched a couple of weekends ago and was universally praised by participants. The Coalition hit out of the park with Horde Siege, a huge highlight that revolutionized the iconic Horde mode that the franchise popularized in 2008.

The campaign is where E-Day needs to impress in order to not only become Xbox’s first exclusive first-party game to ever be nominated for Game of the Year at The Game Awards, but to be Xbox’s first win as well. Luckily, the cards are stacked in their favor with the prequel tackling the single most important day in Gears lore: Emergence Day. It’s ripe for a narrative that will bring back the feel of the beloved original trilogy with Marcus and Dom back in the spotlight and explore major events like the invention of the iconic Lancer.

More importantly, this is a prequel that will probably be heartbreaking in a memorable way. We’ve seen a few characters introduced in this game that don’t appear in previous titles. You can only assume the worst, knowing how brutal this universe can be. Meeting Maria before she was captured would be another obvious candidate for an emotional story beat. Pairing a campaign with such huge potential with a multiplayer suite that’s already receiving immense praise makes Gears of War: E-Day a formidable Game of the Year contender.

‘The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time’ is Reborn to Repeat Its Dominance

Image via Nintendo

Then there’s The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time remake, a game that carries a reputation unmatched by anything else in the medium. The original release remains the highest-rated game in Metacritic history with a score of 99, the only title to ever reach that number. Even with generational successors like Twilight Princess and Breath of the Wild, Ocarina of Time lives on as many fans’ favorite of all time and continues to top best of all-time lists across the internet.

The hype for this ground-up remake of the most influential 3D adventure game ever made may end up exceeding any remake before it, Final Fantasy VII Remake included (and Nintendo can do it without splitting the content into three full-priced releases). Although we haven’t seen any gameplay yet, don’t expect this to be a 1:1 remake like Star Fox (2026) that keeps the game intact. This is likely to feel like a brand new, modernized Zelda game twisted around all the elements that made Ocarina of Time special. That sounds like a recipe for another Game of the Year caliber Legend of Zelda title. It may even be the first remake to ever run off with the grand prize.

‘Grand Theft Auto VI’ and Rockstar Breed Controversy

All that’s not to say Grand Theft Auto VI won’t be an amazing experience. The extended look was impressive in a way that only Rockstar can pull off, but it’s the same impressive feats they pulled off with GTA V and RDR2 before it. Yet they still lost. And that was when Rockstar was still revered by gamers and the industry alike. In 2026, their reputation has taken a few hits due to some avaricious decision-making.

The first offense was the decision to make GTA VI a digital-only game. PlayStation’s follow-up announcement that they would no longer offer physical games starting January 2028 sparked a vocal movement against the all-digital future and Rockstar is caught in the middle of it. On top of that, pre-orders went live (before we had even seen a second of gameplay) for GTA VI with a base price tag of $79.99 and an Ultimate Edition at $99.99. It didn’t help that the Ultimate Edition mostly featured seemingly cut content such as access to exclusive shops, exclusive mission content and the ability to change Jason’s facial hair.

Then came the long-awaited GTA VI gameplay reveal. The hype was sky-high for what Rockstar had been cooking for 13 years. Surely there was nothing they could do to ruin the moment, right? Well, Rockstar (or more than likely parent company Take-Two) found a way, selling the first extended look to Netflix and effectively paywalling the trailer for millions of fans. This decision also sparked mass backlash online, which Rockstar could easily ignore, but they ended up irritating the wrong person.

‘GTA VI’ Leaks Shattered the Internet

Image via Rockstar Games

An anonymous individual set the internet on fire last week when they decided to leak an old build of GTA VI gameplay, dubbing it the “Cyberleeks.” Rockstar and Take-Two may have been able to ignore the cries of disgruntled fans, but this was something that finally sent them into a panic. DMCAs were being placed across the internet and a cyber hunt for “Cyberleek” was underway. With all the bad press that this game has been getting lately, it’s hard to believe there wouldn’t be some negative impact on the panels who will be deciding the Game of the Year winner this winter.

Grand Theft Auto VI arrives November 19 with a short turnaround of roughly three weeks before The Game Awards (which may be an additional blockade for voters). Rockstar will surely break every sales record in the book, and it will be deserved for the meticulous craft and detail they put into their worlds. But scale and quantity can also be a deterrent we’ve seen, and GTA VI seems to be going even bigger than its predecessors. Just don’t be surprised if the final envelope at the end of the big night doesn’t read “Grand Theft Auto VI“.