Spider-Man: Brand New Day Will Beat Supergirl In Only One Weekend

By Chris Snellgrove
| Published 15 seconds ago

Last summer, the DCU got off to a strong start with James Gunn’s Superman. Bright, colorful, and unapologetically silly, this cinematic universe seemed like the perfect alternative to the grim and gritty DCEU and the grounded, snarky MCU. As if to drive that point home, Gunn’s movie ended up beating out two highly anticipated Marvel movies: The Thunderbolts (a quirky, comedic blockbuster featuring several familiar faces) and The Fantastic Four: First Steps (an established brand name starring Pedro Pascal, Hollywood’s latest wonderboy). Now, we have a rematch between Marvel and DC, with Supergirl and Spider-Man: Brand New Day both competing to be the biggest film of the summer.

While Brand New Day won’t come out until July 31, it seems Marvel has already won this rematch. Supergirl’s opening weekend is far worse than anyone initially predicted, and the Woman of Steel is going to be slugging it out to get just $40 million domestic (less than a third of Superman’s $125 million). This poor initial box office, combined with poor word of mouth, means that the movie may not manage to get $200 million worldwide by the time all is said and done. By contrast, Spider-Man: Brand New Day is projected to earn $200 million domestically in its first weekend, more than Supergirl is likely to get in its entire run!

Spider-Man Versus Supergirl 

Box office projections are a tricky thing. Initially, they are based on many factors, including early ticket sales and online buzz. However, the rubber really meets the road when the film makes its debut. Once analysts know how much a movie makes in its opening weekend, it becomes easier to estimate how much it will make in its entire run. With very occasional exceptions like Obsession, movies almost always make less money in every subsequent week. Based on real-time audience data gathered through CinemaScore, PostTrak, and other tools, it’s easier to get an idea of a film’s “legs”, i.e. how slowly its box office will decline from week to week. 

As you might imagine, Supergirl is looking pretty bleak right now. Earning $40 million in its opening weekend is a bad sign because several superhero movies with a similar opening box office only ended up earning about 2x their opening box office. That means Supergirl could earn only about $80 million domestically. International box office is likely to be weaker than usual (because the movie features a female-centric movie based around a less popular character), so things get even bleaker. Even if the domestic legs are better than anticipated, this film will very likely end up earning less than $200 million worldwide. Meanwhile, Spider-Man: Brand New Day is estimated to earn $200 million domestically in its opening weekend.

He’s Ready For The Fight

So, why is Supergirl likely to only earn about 2x, domestically, of its opening weekend? Basically, it comes down to how much money superhero movies with similar opening weekends ended up making. The Marvels (the first MCU film to lose money) earned $47 million domestically in its opening weekend and only ended up earning $206.1 million worldwide. Morbius earned $39.1 million domestically in its opening weekend and only ended up earning $167.4 million worldwide. Finally, Joker: Folie à Deux earned $37.8 million domestically and ended up getting only $207.5 million worldwide.

Now, Joker 2 is an example of how Supergirl could still earn over $200 million globally after a $40 million domestic opening weekend. But it’s worth noting that Joker is a much more popular character, and this was a sequel to a movie that earned over a billion dollars at the box office. That movie also came out in October 2024, when its primary competition was Venom: The Last Dance. Supergirl is currently getting its butt kicked by Toy Story 5, and its hopes of earning more in July will be dashed by highly anticipated blockbusters like The Odyssey and Spider-Man: Brand New Day. 

No Matter What, Supergirl Will Lose Money

Even if Supergirl could achieve a worldwide box office greater than Brand New Day’s domestic opening weekend, that would be only a symbolic victory. Studio insiders have previously claimed that the film will need $300 million just to break even, and it’s not going to achieve that, much less turn a profit for the studio. That means the second DCU feature film is going to lose money, just like The Marvels did. Notably, it took the MCU a decade and a half before it made a movie that lost money. 

The DCU managed this in less than a year, and with Supergirl flopping the same year Spider-Man: Brand New Day and Avengers: Doomsday premier, the DCU may end up dying much, much quicker than the DCEU. Fans hoping to see these two cinematic universes slug it out are likely disappointed at how quickly the fight ended. After all, James Gunn set out to battle the MCU only to learn the most bitter lesson of all: Marvel’s got hands!