The New Star Wars Movie Just Made History In The Worst Possible Way

By Chris Snellgrove
| Published 1 hour ago

Disney originally intended for The Mandalorian and Grogu to be a crowd-pleasing movie that would bring the fandom together. After all, this was the first Star Wars film since 2019, and one that brings the most popular franchise characters from Disney+ to the big screen. Unfortunately, it didn’t take long before everything started falling apart. The movie got dragged by critics and had a worse opening weekend than Solo, making this the lowest-ever opening for a live-action Star Wars movie. After that poor opening, Disney had just one hope: that The Mandalorian and Grogu would get such positive word-of-mouth that the second weekend would bring in more money than the first weekend.

That’s exactly what happened with Obsession, making it the first horror movie of the millennium to earn more in its second weekend. As for Disney, it looks like the studio should have bought a One Wish Willow and made a wish. Right now, The Mandalorian and Grogu’s box office is set to drop at least 69 percent in its second weekend, which will be the biggest drop in Star Wars history (previously, Solo was the biggest loser with a 65 percent drop). Even worse, this latest movie set in a galaxy far, far away is likely to get blown away at the box office by Backrooms, another tiny horror movie with barely any marketing.

This Is Where The Fun Begins

Why is the second weekend box office for a film so important? Basically, it helps fans and filmmakers alike estimate how much money a movie will make before it leaves theaters. Outliers like Obsession notwithstanding, movies almost always lose money in their second weekend; therefore, it’s not a question of if the box office drops than how much the box office drops. A smaller drop indicates that a movie has legs and will likely make a major profit. A major drop, however, indicates that a movie won’t be nearly as profitable and will likely end up on digital and streaming that much sooner.

Right now, Deadline reports that The Mandalorian and Grogu will have a box office drop of at least 69 percent for its second weekend. That’s especially bleak for the franchise, as Star Wars films were once considered reliable, billion-dollar blockbusters (yes, even The Last Jedi and The Rise of Skywalker). The poor box office performance of Solo: A Star Wars Story forced Disney to pivot and turn multiple intended film projects (like solo movies for Boba Fett and Obi-Wan Kenobi) into Disney+ TV shows. The studio knew things would be bad when Solo’s box office dropped 65 percent in its second weekend. Therefore, Mandalorian and Grogu’s 69 percent drop is absolutely devastating.

They’ve Got A Bad Feeling About This

In a vacuum (including the cold vacuum of space), The Mandalorian and Grogu’s box office failure would be very embarrassing for Disney. However, it’s almost impossible to avoid comparing this sci-fi film’s failure to the inexplicable success of the two major horror films it’s currently sharing a multiplex with. You see, Disney reportedly spent almost $100 million domestically to market its latest Star Wars movie. Meanwhile, Backrooms reportedly had a marketing budget of a little over $10 million, and it’s likely to beat The Mandalorian and Grogu’s box office this weekend. The House of Mouse spent 10x more and may ultimately lose its top spot at the box office to a low-budget horror movie.

Speaking of low budgets, Obsession was made for under a million dollars, and it’s currently earned over $108 million. What’s the secret with these horror films? Obsession director Curry Barker and Backrooms director Kane Parsons both got their start on YouTube, where they achieved a mass following before setting out to make major motion pictures. YouTube taught both filmmakers how to make the most of a limited budget, and they are now utilizing those skills to make horror movie history. As for Star Wars, its producers are spending a small fortune to budget an aggressively disappointing movie to an increasingly shrinking number of fans.

Help Me, Indie Filmmakers: You’re My Only Hope

There’s a bitter lesson in all of this for Disney: ever since they took control of the Star Wars franchise, they have been pissing away the goodwill of the most loyal sci-fi audience in movie history. The Sequel Trilogy was a disappointing bust, and the TV shows on Disney+ have been very hit or miss. Plus, producers used their popular platform to absolutely ruin the magic of this franchise. Star Wars no longer feels special; it’s just more crappy streaming content you put on while you’re doing the dishes. After more than a decade of creative mismanagement, Disney has driven away countless fans through one sh*tty movie and even sh*ttier show after another.

The fandom will never completely die out, of course, and loyalists whose walls are lined with action figures will always support new Star Wars films. But there are only so many loyalists left, and the dwindling numbers for The Mandalorian and Grogu prove that there aren’t enough fans to turn these movies into blockbusters like A New Hope, The Empire Strikes Back, or even The Phantom Menace. The only way forward for the franchise is to hire young filmmakers with a distinct creative vision. But that won’t happen because talented directors focused on their own IPs have done what the Star Wars fandom cannot: left their favorite childhood toys firmly in the past.