The Next Star Wars Movie Is Already A Flop

By Chris Snellgrove
| Published 57 seconds ago

Everyone remembers that iconic scene from the first Star Wars movie in which Leia, via hologram, implores an old family friend for assistance: “Help me, Obi-Wan Kenobi, you’re my only hope!” Ironically enough, the executives in charge of the world’s most popular sci-fi franchise are now saying that to its most popular television stars. “Help me, The Mandalorian & Grogu, you’re my only hope!” 

Ever since The Rise of Skywalker disappointed fans and critics alike in 2019, there hasn’t been a new Star Wars movie in theaters. Making matters worse, the various TV shows on Disney+ have been a decidedly mixed bag, resulting in lukewarm audience reception. One major exception is The Mandalorian, so Disney is trying to play it safe by thrusting the show’s popular protagonists onto the big screen. Simply put, The Mandalorian & Grogu is the House of Mouse’s attempt to make the franchise seem exciting and relevant again. There’s just one problem: it’s on track to have the lowest weekend opening for a live-action Star Wars film in box office history.

A Bad Feeling About This

Why do I “have a bad feeling” about The Mandalorian & Grogu’s bad performance? It’s not the keen mystical insight of the Force or even the intuition of a street-savvy smuggler. The highly reliable site Box Office Theory is currently projecting that this next Star Wars film will make $71 million in its opening weekend. At first glance, that may seem like a decent chunk of change. But that is far below the opening weekend for Solo: A Star Wars Story, which earned $84.4 million when it premiered, ultimately becoming the lowest-earning live-action movie in franchise history.

Does that mean The Mandalorian & Grogu is definitely going to bomb as Solo did? Not necessarily: as Yoda reminds us, the future is always in motion. Part of what made Solo: A Star Wars Story such a box office failure is that, after its notorious change of directors and subsequent reshoots, it had a massive budget of $365.7 million. The movie went on to earn $393 million, but after you factor in the cost of marketing, it became the first Star Wars movie to actually lose the studio money. 

Everything Falls Apart

The Mandalorian & Grogu reportedly has a slimmer budget of $166 million. That means it will be much easier for this film to make a profit than it was for Solo: A Star Wars Story, and Disney may very well consider any level of profit (no matter how modest) a success for this theatrical spinoff of their most popular Disney+ show. However, it’s worth noting that Solo suffered at the box office because it premiered five months after The Last Jedi, a movie that deeply disappointed fans. Following on the heels of more disappointments like The Rise of Skywalker and The Acolyte, this next movie may have a much harder time winning audiences over.

As a lifelong Star Wars fan, I hope The Mandalorian & Grogu is successful and, through good word of mouth, can restore this bruised and battered brand to its former glory. But these low box office projects hint that bringing Pedro Pascal’s popular bounty hunter to the big screen may not be “the way” when it comes to winning fans back over. Solo actually lost Disney money, and The Rise of Skywalker was the least profitable in the franchise. If The Mandalorian & Grogu is similarly disappointing, then Disney’s failure will be complete: they will have turned the most popular sci-fi IP in the world into one that regularly bombs at the box office.