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AI is developing so fast it is becoming hard to measure, experts say | UK News

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File pic: Reuters

Some days it can seem as if the whole of the tech world is hanging on the latest update to one graph.

The graph in question is made by a non-profit research institute called METR and it assesses the software development capacities of different AI models.

For many months now, this chart has been provoking excitement and unease in anyone who watches artificial intelligence because it shows a striking exponential trend – that is, a doubling in growth.

According to METR, or Model Evaluation and Threat Research, AI is getting twice as good at the startling rate of roughly every seven months.

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The latest results turned the dial from feverish to panicked, because it showed the trend not just continuing, but actually speeding up.

METR tests AIs by assessing their ability to complete longer and longer human software tasks.

The latest model it analysed, Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6, broke all previous records.

‘Monstrous leaps’

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Many in tech compare the situation to the COVID pandemic because of the deceptive way doubling turns from apparently small increases to monstrous leaps.

“Nothing, nothing, nothing, everything,” was how a UK tech entrepreneur and AI researcher described the situation to me a few months ago, at a time when the METR chart was already looking fairly vertiginous (although, in retrospect, it feels as if we were barely approaching the foothills).

The progress since then makes many feel like we are rapidly approaching “everything”.

After the chart’s release, one METR researcher sent a note to his old college friends, which he posted on social media, saying: “I feel very confident now that it’s going to be totally insane and chaotic, like many orders of magnitude more chaotic than anything the world has experienced in our lifetimes.”

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This isn’t even an unusual sentiment in tech right now. The chief executives of leading AI companies make similar statements all the time.

‘Ten times the impact of Industrial Revolution’

Even Demis Hassabis, the most measured of the AI leaders, regularly says that AI will have 10 times the impact of the Industrial Revolution, in a tenth of the timespan.

A widely-shared newsletter responding to the METR chart put it more simply: “When must I start kicking and screaming at you that it is… happening.”

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But what exactly is “it”? On closer inspection, it becomes harder to tell.

For a start, look at what the METR chart actually measures.

Read more:
If you have an AI-generated password, you should change it
‘Humanity is cooked’: AIs now have their own social network


The graph that shows why AI is going to be so huge

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The details are technical, but roughly speaking it measures the length of a task that an AI can complete 50% of the time – meaning they fail as often as they succeed.

Some way off full automation

A business which turned its operations over to an AI which could complete a task half the time wouldn’t last very long.

Even 80% success – which METR also measures – wouldn’t be close enough for anything approaching full automation in a corporate environment.

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Then there is the precise location of the dots on the chart, which even METR researchers admit they are unsure about.

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Why you shouldn’t ask AI to generate your passwords

“We’re increasingly nervous about the measurements that we’re putting out there,” said Joel Becker, a member of METR’s technical staff, referring to the extremely large range of possible values – the confidence interval – on the group’s Claude Opus 4.6 evaluation.

“We don’t want to hide behind that. I think that’s real uncertainty.”

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A key reason behind the uncertainty is that it is increasingly difficult for organisations like METR to find tasks that are hard enough to test the AI properly.

That, in itself, tells a story.

Nevertheless, with markets moving based on small changes in AI assessments, it is important to remember that a few small tweaks in METR’s tests might have changed the result in a meaningful way.


AI researchers are resigning – what does that mean?

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The rate of AI progress might be speeding up, but it could just as easily be slowing down.

Becker, who said he had stopped paying into a pension since understanding the trend in AI development, told Sky News he believed that AI was not yet able to improve itself, triggering the science fiction fear of an explosion of AI capabilities.

Nevertheless, he said that “it probably is the case today that AI tools are meaningfully speeding up the degree to which AI professionals are able to make progress on building better and better AIs”, which is significant in its own right.

“I want to communicate that the situation is serious, that it’s fast-moving, that it appears not to be slowing down, that it is accelerating,” Becker told Sky News.

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“It could be associated with extraordinarily positive possibilities… and on the other side, there may be extraordinary, dangerous things that might follow.”

How is AI affecting employment?

At present, employment statistics in the UK and the US show little sign of any impact from AI.

Adverts for software engineering jobs on the job search platform Indeed are actually rising.

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Becker said he thought coders had a future, for a while at least.

“There’s all these AI professionals inside the labs, you know, they’re doing real work. I imagine they’ll keep doing not so similar work for the next year to maybe many more years than that.”

But he cautioned: “Economic statistics are referring to what happens some number of months ago and not what’s happening exactly today.

“And I think some of the extraordinary progress that we’ve seen, especially in software engineering, but also in other fields, from AIs becoming more capable, has happened only in the past few months.”

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The speed of development in AI is so fast now it’s becoming extremely hard to measure.

That fact alone is extremely significant.

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Whitby property’s unauthorised outdoor decking refused by council

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Whitby property’s unauthorised outdoor decking refused by council

​Ove and Grethe Andresen’s retrospective application to “regularise” the construction of raised timber decking at their property in Whitby has been refused by North Yorkshire Council over concerns about its impact on the town’s historic conservation area.

​The applicants said that “the development supports the continued residential and holiday use of Kirkby House at Long Steps, Church Street, which is consistent with prevailing patterns of occupation in this part of Whitby”.

​They added that it “provides private outdoor amenity space in a location constrained by steep topography and limited garden provision”.

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​However, planning officers described it as “a private benefit ” with “no advantages to the wider public that would outweigh the visual harm caused by the boundary treatment”.

​A planning report also highlighted that the property “already benefited from a much smaller timber side balcony”.

​Cllr Neil Swannick, who represents Whitby Streonshalh, said: “The unauthorised construction is inappropriate in Whitby’s conservation area and likely to cause disamenity to the adjacent residential properties whose residents are entitled to the quiet enjoyment of their homes.”

​The planning report stated: “It is emphasised that the area holds great significance with regard to the Whitby conservation area and, as such, the use of materials is an important factor in relation to the character of the area.

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​“It is noted in the assessment that poor-quality boundary treatment can have an adverse impact on the character of the conservation area.”

​The applicants defended the development in a design statement submitted to the authority, stating: “The proposal constitutes a proportionate and contextually responsive intervention that makes efficient use of limited external space within a sensitive historic environment.

​“On this basis, there are no material planning grounds that would justify refusal, and planning permission should be granted for the retention of the decking.

​However, officers concluded that the development “causes an unacceptable level of harm to neighbouring amenity”.

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​The retrospective application was refused by North Yorkshire Council.

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John Lewis tower block in west London with 465 homes gets green light

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John Lewis tower block in west London with 465 homes gets green light

The Section 106 financial contributions have increased by £275,811 to a new total of £3,466,277 to address the impact of the 37 additional homes and the revised Energy Strategy. However, all non-financial obligations from the previous scheme, such as those relating to affordable housing and viability reviews, remain unchanged.

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11 best secateurs for pruning your garden, tested on my allotment

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11 best secateurs for pruning your garden, tested on my allotment

Secateurs are one of the first tools most gardeners acquire. A good pair will last a lifetime, but any that are substandard or old can damage your plants and your hands. There are two main types. Bypass secateurs have scissor-like blades to produce a clean cut when pruning green stems. In contrast, anvil secateurs act more like a knife, and work best when cutting thicker, woodier stems.

The best secateurs should also be comfortable and a ratchet function will help if you need extra power when cutting bigger stems. Most also come in different sizes, and some have adjustable grip, so you can tweak it if you share your tools. Just note that smaller tools have reduced cutting diameters.

Price-wise, they range from around £15 to almost £300 for professional tools, although none here reach those heights. Notable brands include Felco, Niwaki, Okasune, Wilkinson Sword and Darlac. You’ll find all of these and more reviewed below, after extensive testing on my allotment.

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The best secateurs: At a glance

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Trains cancelled due to incident between Wigan and Salford

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Trains cancelled due to incident between Wigan and Salford

Northern have issued a warning to passengers, saying that all lines are blocked between Wigan Wallgate and Salford Crescent.

Services between these two stations via Atherton are blocked in both directions.

Disruptions are expected to last until 9pm, according to the latest updated from Northern.

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The Headbolt Lane to Blackburn and Wigan Wallgate to Leeds services are affected.

Services between Southport and Manchester Oxford Road and Southport and Stalybridge are able to call at all stations via Westhoughton, however may be subject to short notice cancellations and delays.

Northern train ticket restrictions have been lifted in the affected areas, including Advance and Peak restrictions, during this disruption. Restrictions will be reinstated once the disruption ends.

The following rail replacement services are in place:

From Wigan Wallgate calling at all stations to Manchester Victoria via Atherton at 20:00

From Salford Crescent calling at all stations to Wigan Wallgate via Atherton at 20:00

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The emergency services have been contacted for comment.

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Inside Piers Morgan’s marriage to Celia Walden after he storms off over taunts about her

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Daily Mirror
Inside Piers Morgan’s marriage to Celia Walden after he storms off over taunts about her – The Mirror