Regardless of the result in the Gorton and Denton by-election, the currents of UK politics spell trouble for Labour.
By-elections come and go, but the vote in Gorton and Denton is shaping up to be the most important in a generation.
Labour won the seat comfortably at the general election with a majority of 13,413 and should be a shoo-in.
Some Labour MPs predict they will defy the odds and hold on in a constituency that has swung against their party.
But the Greens and Reform are in the ascendancy and both feel victory is within their grasp.
A loss to either party would be a nightmare for Labour and an ominous portent of an uncertain future.
The campaign in Gorton and Denton shows Labour, regardless of the final result, are losing votes to the Greens on the Left and to Reform on the Right.
Keir Starmer swept to power after putting together a broad base of support, but that coalition is crumbling.
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At a glance, the parties of Nigel Farage and Zack Polanski seem polar opposites and have little in common.
The Greens are anti-capitalist, anti-war and would ramp up the drive to net zero if they had the chance.
Reform are pro-capitalist, pro-Trump and hostile to action to reduce the UK’s carbon footprint.
But the Greens and Reform have more in common than their supporters would ever dare admit, with both proposing simple solutions to complex problems.
Farage ultimately blames immigration for society’s problems, scapegoating minorities for everything from the housing crisis to pressures on public services.
Polanski turns his guns on “billionaires” – a tiny group of powerful people apparently causing havoc around the globe.
The real problems facing democracies – ageing populations, low productivity – barely get a look in.
Their divisive rhetoric – uploaded and shared on social media – fuels the dissatisfaction many feel with twenty first century politics.
It is a recipe for Labour getting hammered in 2029 and falling to below 20pc of the vote.
The shift to the Greens and Reform also has huge implications for the Holyrood election.
An opinion poll on Tuesday showed the SNP – after nineteen years in power – on the cusp of securing an outright majority.
This is in spite of the Nationalist vote share falling markedly compared to the 2021 election.
Reform would be in second place on twenty five seats, with Labour a distant third and returning only fifteen MSPs.
For Labour to stand any chance in May, they need to make inroads into the dozens of first-past-the-post constituencies held by the SNP.
With Reform running rampant, Farage’s party is fracturing the pro-UK vote and handing these seats to the SNP by default.
Reform and Green support on the regional lists – where Labour are strongest – is another blow for Anas Sarwar, a double whammy that guarantees electoral failure.
Labour has to take a large amount of responsibility for the rise of Reform and the Greens.
Despite winning by a landslide in 2024, their vote was soft and voters gave them a conditional mandate.
It was incumbent on Starmer to start well, reflect the public’s desire for change and produce a positive vision of the future.
He instead backed a series of politically disastrous cuts and warned the public of tougher times ahead – the last thing voters wanted to hear.
Gorton and Denton is a glimpse of a bleak future and parties on the centre-left need to wake up.




