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Could joining the state sector be an option for private schools?

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Could joining the state sector be an option for private schools?

Private schools in England are facing new financial realities. Following the UK general election in July 2024, the new government introduced VAT on school fees and removed charitable business rates relief for independent schools. At the same time, staffing costs have continued to rise. Employer national insurance contributions have increased, and the national minimum wage has risen.

For some schools – particularly smaller institutions with limited endowments or declining enrolments – this has raised questions about their sustainability.

Although the full impact of these funding changes remains to be seen, they have intensified concerns about sustainability within parts of the independent sector and raised broader questions about reform.

One viable yet underexplored option is the conversion of private schools to the state sector.

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Although still relatively rare, a small number of independent schools have taken this route over the past two decades. In a new report, commissioned by thinktank the Private Education Policy Forum, my colleague Tom Richmond and I have carried out the first comprehensive analysis of what happens when independent schools become state schools in England.

Between 2007 and 2017, 27 independent schools converted into state-funded academies or free schools. Twenty-four are still operating today. While the legal route from independent to state provision technically still exists, it has largely fallen out of use, with no conversions taking place since 2017. Independent to state conversion is therefore often overlooked in debates about the future of private education.

Conversion is often viewed as a last resort taken only by schools in serious financial trouble. However, while financial pressures were relevant to many of the schools that converted between 2007 and 2017, they were not the whole story. Schools have also framed conversion as a way to return to their founding missions, which were often explicitly about inclusion and serving local communities rather than educating a fee-paying intake.

The transition itself was not straightforward. Schools reported significant challenges in adapting to the expectations of the state sector. These included the loss of academic selection, the requirement to deliver the national curriculum, and regular inspections by Ofsted, England’s school inspectorate. Many also highlighted the absence of clear guidance from government on key aspects of the conversion process.

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In practical terms, this meant that schools which had previously operated with considerable autonomy had to adjust to a far more regulated environment. In some cases, early Ofsted inspections highlighted weaknesses in data use, governance and oversight as schools adjusted to the demands of state accountability.

However, these difficulties were not permanent. Over time, outcomes improved markedly. All but one of the schools that converted and remained open are now rated “good” or “outstanding” by Ofsted.

Former independent primary schools perform at broadly similar levels than other schools in their local authorities. Former independent secondary schools generally achieve stronger attainment and progress outcomes than nearby state schools, though performance varies. Initial adjustment challenges, in other words, did not prevent long-term success.

The consequences – and the future

One of the most significant changes following conversion is in pupil intake.

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Removing academic selection and fees transformed who these schools serve. Since conversion, the proportion of pupils with special educational needs has more than doubled. The share eligible for free school meals has risen sharply.

There are challenges in moving to the state sector.
Monkey Business Images/Shutterstock

Research has shown that while these schools do not perfectly mirror the national state school population, the gap between them and their local communities has narrowed dramatically.

In many cases, they are far more representative of their surrounding areas than they were as independent institutions. Conversion does not simply change how a school is funded. It can reshape who benefits from its facilities and educational offer.

A common concern is that families will withdraw their children once fees are removed. In practice, this rarely appears to have happened at scale.

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Consultation evidence and enrolment patterns show that large majorities of parents supported the move, particularly because it eliminated fees and provided financial certainty. Where schools were required to demonstrate parental demand, applications frequently exceeded available places. Widespread collapse in enrolment – a frequently voiced fear – did not materialise.

Conversion to the state sector is not a solution for every school. Local context matters. The availability of places, building condition and leadership capacity all shape whether conversion is viable. But, the experience of the past two decades suggests that, where carefully managed, conversion can preserve provision, widen access and deliver strong outcomes.

As debates about school funding and the future of private education continue, independent to state conversion is likely to resurface.

If the route is to become viable again, greater clarity is necessary. A clear and permanent pathway – assessed case by case and aligned with local need – would reduce uncertainty. Drawing on the more flexible elements of earlier academy reforms and providing practical support during transition could make the process more workable.

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Northern Rail delays after medical emergency near Bolton

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Trains between Piccadilly and Manchester Airport cancelled

A passenger on the service between Bolton and Leyland became ill while riding the train.

Northern Rail posted a message to their X account at 1:50pm alerting people that this was the case.

Some Northern lines were blocked or delayed as a result of the medical incident.

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A Northern Rail spokesperson was not able to provide much information on what occurred, but confirmed that the issue was over around 20 minutes after it began.

The blockages were quickly cleared and Northern Rail service returned to normal.

Northern Rail posted another X update at 2:09pm alerting passengers that the service was back to normal.

Riders may be entitled to compensation if their train was cancelled or delayed by longer than 15 minutes.

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Man assaulted in city street as police appeal for information

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Cambridgeshire Live

Police would like to speak to two men captured on CCTV

A man was left injured after an assault in a Cambridgeshire city. The victim was assaulted in Market Street, Ely at around 2.25am on March 29.

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The man suffered an injury to his arm. Cambridgeshire Police would like to speak to two men captured on CCTV in connection with the incident.

A police spokesperson said: “Anyone with information should call police on 101 quoting 35/23024/26 or visit www.cambs.police.uk/report. Alternatively, contact Crimestoppers, anonymously, on 0800 555111 or via www.crimestoppers-uk.org.”

Do you want more of the latest Cambridgeshire news as it comes in from across the county? Sign up to our dedicated newsletter to make sure you never miss a big story from Cambridge or anywhere else in the county. You can also sign up to our dedicated Traffic and Crime newsletters for the latest updates on the topics you are most interested in.

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New DUP MLA gives update on husband’s condition as he stands down during mental health battle

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Belfast Live

“Gary is very much sick at home, he’s under the care of the NHS and he’s not doing well, but he is focused on rest and recovery,” she said.

New DUP MLA for Foyle gives update on husband’s mental health

Newly co-opted DUP MLA Julie Middleton has said her husband is “not doing well” as she steps into his role at Stormont, describing an “incredibly difficult time” for their family.

The new MLA for Foyle was speaking at a press conference on Monday morning, hours after being formally co-opted to replace Gary Middleton following his decision to resign on mental health grounds.

Setting out her priorities, she sought to strike a balance between acknowledging the personal circumstances behind her appointment and asserting her independence as a political figure in her own right.

“I am hugely honoured and excited to be here today as the first female unionist MLA for Foyle. I have a history and experience of working within the council as an elected representative for the DUP, and I bring forward a strong mandate from there and a strong record of delivery. I was born and bred in the Foyle constituency.

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“I think it’s arguably one of the best constituencies, but I’m not naive to the issues that exist within the constituency in terms of deprivation, a need for further investment and indeed very close to home, but mental health issues as well,” she said.

“I have a history of working with young people, some of the most vulnerable young people in the Foyle constituency, for many years, and I also have a history of working within the special educational needs sector. I have a positive outlook on life.

“Things have been difficult at home. But I’m not just a wife, I am very much my own person, and I think that through this whole journey our family has been through, it’s clear that there needs to be further talks about mental health. There is certainly a stigma that still exists, but onto the work ahead, I’m very excited to be here today.

“I’m really looking forward to being in the chamber, and I’m looking forward to meeting with constituents on the doors and out and about, where they can tell me the things that are problems for them, how I can work for and with them and the things they want to celebrate and how I can be a cheerleader for them and the area as well. I am taking this very seriously, and I’m very, very pleased to be here today.”

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Addressing questions about her husband’s condition, Mrs Middleton was direct about the seriousness of his illness while defending her decision to take on the role.

“It’s been an incredibly difficult time for our family, and I certainly have learned so much about mental health, and I do think the general public needs to understand that mental health is more than just your situation.

Mental health is an illness within your body and certainly over the last 48 hours I have seen a small amount of comments regarding how could I possibly step into this role if Gary is sick at home.

“Well, Gary is very much sick at home, he’s under the care of the NHS and he’s not doing well, but he is focused on rest and recovery. I think what most people who don’t know me, maybe they’re not aware of the fact that I have been in the public eye throughout this whole journey and our private life and our public life are two different things. So Gary is unwell. He needs to step back to focus on rest and recovery.

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“I am very much my own person. I am very excited to represent the area, but importantly, I am going to bring my own energy, my own enthusiasm. I’m known to be a joyful person, I’m known to be an open person, and I’m known to be a woman of integrity in the area that I’ve represented.

“I would say that everybody that I’ve represented will tell you I haven’t ever approached any work at a 50 per cent rate. I’m 100 to 110%. I put my whole heart and soul in there, and simply because I want to make people’s lives better, and words are just words, but words are stronger and more important when you back them up with action, and that is what I’m about.”

She also suggested her husband’s illness should prompt a wider conversation about mental health support, while cautioning against attributing blame to political life itself.

“I believe there needs to be carefully planned mental health interventions in every industry. I have already said that the illness is not caused by the work, and Gary hasn’t said that either.

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“Gary hasn’t shared his story yet, but when he does share his story, it is a powerful one. He is stepping away from the public eye to rest and recover, not because Stormont or politics have caused his illness.

“He is ill with mental health, but we have a stigma in Northern Ireland, not amongst everyone, but amongst a minority of people, where they may not understand mental health as it is medically and I think that every workplace needs to focus on mental health.

“Every home needs to focus on mental health and it’s just a bigger piece of work than just talking things through right now, but I know that there are many that are engaged actively and I know that there are many who are really passionate about it. There are great organisations out there, and I am hugely thankful to the NHS for the help that they’ve given my family.”

For all the latest news, visit the Belfast Live homepage here and sign up to our daily newsletter here.

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Pope Leo fires back with cutting retort after Trump savages him and poses as Jesus Christ: ‘No fear’

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Pope Leo fires back with cutting retort after Trump savages him and poses as Jesus Christ: ‘No fear’

Pope Leo, the first U.S.-born pontiff, has fired back after President Donald Trump lashed out at him over the ongoing Iran war.

Trump derided Leo as “terrible” in an unusual, direct broadside against the leader of the Catholic church, who responded by vowing to continue denouncing war and suffering.

“I have no fear of the Trump administration, or speaking out loudly of the message of the gospel, which is what I believe I am here to do, what the Church is here to do,” he told reporters Monday. “I don’t want to get into a debate with [Trump].”

“I will continue to speak out loudly against war, looking to promote peace, promoting dialogue and multilateral relationships among the states to look for just solutions to problems,” Leo continued aboard a papal flight to Algiers, where he is embarking on a 10-day tour to four African countries.

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“Too many people are suffering in the world today,” he said. “Too many innocent people are being killed. And I think someone has to stand up and say there’s a better way.”

‘I will continue to speak out loudly against war, looking to promote peace, promoting dialogue and multilateral relationships among the states to look for just solutions to problems,’ Pope Leo said amid a 10-day tour to four African countries
‘I will continue to speak out loudly against war, looking to promote peace, promoting dialogue and multilateral relationships among the states to look for just solutions to problems,’ Pope Leo said amid a 10-day tour to four African countries (Reuters)

Archbishop Paul S. Coakley, president of the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops, said he was also disheartened by Trump’s comments.

“Pope Leo is not his rival; nor is the Pope a politician. He is the Vicar of Christ who speaks from the truth of the Gospel and for the care of souls,” he said in a statement.

Trump is facing widespread backlash for his comments, and for sharing an AI picture of himself as Jesus.

“Pope Leo is WEAK on Crime, and terrible for Foreign Policy,” Trump wrote in a stunning 334-word Truth Social post on Sunday night while flying back to Washington, D.C. from Florida.

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“I don’t want a Pope who thinks it’s OK for Iran to have a Nuclear Weapon,” he continued. “I don’t want a Pope who thinks it’s terrible that America attacked Venezuela, a Country that was sending massive amounts of Drugs into the United States.”

He claimed Leo — formerly Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost — was elected pope only because of the president, and slammed him for meeting last week with David Axelrod, who served as a senior advisor to former President Barack Obama.

“Leo should get his act together as Pope, use Common Sense, stop catering to the Radical Left, and focus on being a Great Pope, not a Politician,” the president concluded.

Less than an hour later, Trump posted an AI image portraying himself as Jesus appearing to heal a sick man, encircled by bald eagles and fighter jets.

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He continued his tirade against the pontiff when his plane touched down, telling reporters on the tarmac: “I’m not a fan of Pope Leo.”

Donald Trump shared an AI-generated image of himself as Jesus after bashing Pope Leo
Donald Trump shared an AI-generated image of himself as Jesus after bashing Pope Leo (@realDonaldTrump/Truth Social)

His comments came after Leo suggested over the weekend that a “delusion of omnipotence” triggered the Iran war. Late last month, he wrote on X that God “does not listen to the prayers of those who wage war, but rejects them.”

And, before the ceasefire, when Trump threatened to strike Iranian infrastructure and warned that “an entire civilization will die tonight,” Leo described these remarks as “truly unacceptable.”

The billionaire president’s scathing attack on the Catholic Church’s leader drew broad backlash in the U.S. — including from some members of his own party.

“The deranged and disgusting post from Trump attacking Pope Leo should certainly help him appeal to the more than 50 million Americans who identify as Catholics,” Rep. Pramila Jayapal, a Washington Democrat, wrote on X.

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“Trump shamefully attacked His Holiness Pope Leo XIV,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said in a statement. “People of faith will never worship a wannabe King. We worship an almighty GOD.”

“On Orthodox Easter, President Trump attacked the Pope because the Pope is rightly against Trump’s war in Iran and then he posted this picture of himself as if he is replacing Jesus,” former Georgia GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene wrote on X. “I completely denounce this and I’m praying against it!!!”

The Iran war, launched by the US and Israel in late February, has engulfed large swaths of the Middle East in violence. Pictured here, an emergency worker walks among rubble following strikes in southern Lebanon
The Iran war, launched by the US and Israel in late February, has engulfed large swaths of the Middle East in violence. Pictured here, an emergency worker walks among rubble following strikes in southern Lebanon (AFP/Getty)

The Iran war, which has engulfed large swaths of the Middle East in violence, leading to the deaths of thousands, is opposed by a majority of Americans, according to multiple recent polls.

Earlier this month, it was reported that the American Pope may not return to the U.S. while Trump remains in office.

The Free Press reported that in the wake of the Pope’s annual address to the Vatican’s diplomatic corps in January, in which he criticized states seeking conflict around the globe, the Department of Defense invited Cardinal Christophe Pierre for a meeting.

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At the time, Pierre was serving as Pope Leo’s personal envoy to the United States. The Pentagon requesting a meeting with a Vatican official is “unprecedented,” according to the report.

According to Vatican and U.S. officials who were briefed on the meeting and spoke to the outlet, the Pentagon criticized the Pope’s statements in January, interpreting them as hostile attacks on Trump’s policies. U.S. officials reportedly lectured the church representatives, with one even invoking the the Avignon Papacy —a period of time when the French government used military force to exert influence over the Vatican.

A Pentagon spokesperson told Newsweek that The Free Press’ reporting was “highly exaggerated and distorted.”

“I would actually like to talk to Cardinal Cristophe Pierre and, frankly, to our people, to figure out what actually happened,” Vice President JD Vance, a Catholic, told reporters last week. “I think it’s always a bad idea to offer an opinion on stories that are unconfirmed and uncorroborated, so I’m not going to do that.”

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Everything you need to know about 24 Hours in Police Custody episodes featuring murdered widow

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Cambridgeshire Live

The case will be covered across two episodes

A famous Cambridgeshire cold case is set to feature across two episodes of a TV show on Channel 4 starting tonight (Monday, April 13). 24 Hours in Police Custody is returning to Channel 4 with the case of Una Crown, 86, who died at her home in Wisbech and here is how you can watch it.

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The widow was found dead by her nephew-in-law on January 13, 2013, in a pool of blood with her body being burned. Two police officers attended to the scene and concluded her death was not suspicious, believing she had accidentally set herself on fire and tried to put it out with a tea towel.

The investigation concluded the two cuts to her throat were likely to have been caused by pressure from her scarf as she fell to the floor. A later post-mortem determined Crown had been stabbed to death and a murder investigation was launched.

However, Crown’s house had already been cleaned, as it was not originally treated as a murder investigation crime scene. The investigation eventually went cold for a decade before being reopened after a DNA breakthrough in the case.

Channel 4’s popular series, 24 Hours in Police Custody be will airing a two-part special called The Cold Case Murder which follows Detective Superintendent Iain Moor and colleagues in the Major Crime Unit, as they look into the new evidence to catch her killer.

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The episodes will look at how the team used new forensic techniques to match DNA found under Crown’s fingernails to a man who lived just down the road named David Newton. You will see how detectives had to travel all over the county to rule out his male relatives and create a strong prosecution case.

Newton, who is now in his 70s, was sentenced to life in prison with a minimum of 21 years in February last year thanks to the team’s investigation. Judge Justice Neil Garnham described Newton as having carried out a “ferocious and sustained knife attack on a defenceless old lady”.

If you are interested in watching 24 Hours in Police Custody: The Cold Case Murder to find out more about how Det Supt Moor and his team were able to finally solve Crown’s murder, the first episode will be airing tonight on Channel 4 at 9pm. The second episode will on the same channel at 9pm tomorrow (Tuesday, April 14).

If you miss the episodes, you can watch them after they have aired on Channel 4’s streaming service.

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Bottlers? Ranking the biggest Premier League title slip-ups

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A graphic depicting Steven Gerrard, Mikel Arteta and Kevin Keegan

“Bottlers!”

It’s the cruel taunt thrown about by rival fans. But you’ve gotta be in the Premier League title race to win it, right?

It’s just when you lead for so long and don’t win it, there’s a lonely void, an ‘it should have been us’ vacuum of sorrow.

Staring at the prospect of letting another seemingly insurmountable lead slip, Arsenal are desperate to banish those demons, having grappled with the tag over the past two decades.

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But they are far from alone – in fact, the Gunners’ slip-ups have been far less dramatic than those of some of their rivals.

To help investigate the top flight’s biggest wobblers, those who have let the league slide from seemingly watertight positions, we enlisted the help of BBC Sport statistician Chris Collinson, someone always on top of his tables.

While Chris’ research shows us Arsenal deserve to feature several times, there is room for Stevie G’s slip, a mention for that ‘Aguerooo!’ moment, and, of course, Kevin Keegan’s iconic monologue – which took place 30 years ago this month.

And I’ll tell you, honestly, I will love it if you read this, love it!

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World’s oldest gorilla celebrates her birthday with a lavish feast

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World’s oldest gorilla celebrates her birthday with a lavish feast

Fatou, the world’s oldest gorilla living in captivity, has marked her 69th birthday with a special, sugar-free feast at Berlin Zoo.

The primate enjoyed a spread of cherry tomatoes, beets, leeks, and lettuce, eschewing traditional cake for a healthier, age-appropriate meal.

A western lowland gorilla, Fatou arrived in what was then West Berlin in 1959, believed to be around two years old at the time.

While her exact birthdate remains unknown, April 13 is celebrated as her designated birthday. Gorillas typically live for 35-40 years in the wild, but can achieve significantly longer lifespans under human care.

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Fatou became the zoo’s most senior resident in 2024 following the passing of Ingo the flamingo, who was thought to be at least 75 and had resided at the zoo since 1955.

Fatou enjoys her own enclosure, preferring a quiet life away from the zoo’s younger gorillas
Fatou enjoys her own enclosure, preferring a quiet life away from the zoo’s younger gorillas (AP)
She had a spread of cherry tomatoes, beets, leeks and lettuce for her birthday
She had a spread of cherry tomatoes, beets, leeks and lettuce for her birthday (AP)

Fatou’s remarkable journey began in the wild of western Africa, with Guinness World Records noting a tale that a French sailor bartered her to settle a bar tab in Marseille, before she was reportedly sold to the zoo by a French animal trader.

Today, Fatou enjoys her own enclosure, preferring a quiet life away from the zoo’s younger gorillas.

She has lost her teeth and experiences some arthritis and hearing loss. Despite these age-related challenges, Christian Aust, the Berlin Zoo’s primate supervisor, describes her as friendly with her keepers, albeit still a little stubborn.

At 69, it seems she has certainly earned the right.

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The ultra speed camera that can see inside driver’s vehicles

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The ultra speed camera that can see inside driver's vehicles

There are now around 7000 cameras around the UK’s road network, and in 2022, they resulted in the prosecution of 245,043 people – the highest figure since records began. 

The Jenoptik VECTOR-SR is the latest in speed camera tech. It can catch drivers speeding on either side of the road and see inside cars.

This means it can catch drivers who aren’t wearing a seatbelt or using a mobile phone while driving.

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The cameras don’t flash either, so it might be difficult for motorists to tell if they’ve been caught. 

Louise Thomas, a motor insurance expert at Confused.com, said: “Ultra speed cameras are a big advance in comparison to the standard speed camera which many drivers are used to. Not only will these cameras be able to detect drivers speeding on either side of the road, but they’re also able to see inside driver’s vehicles too.

“That’s as it uses technology to see if drivers are wearing their seatbelt or if they’re breaking driving laws, such as using their mobile phone or other handheld devices.

“Some drivers might be concerned about these new cameras being an invasion of their privacy, but their purpose is to keep all road users safe.

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“These cameras can reduce the risk of distracted driving, which tie in with important changes made to the Highway Code earlier in the year. This included changes to how drivers use technology in their cars while driving, and harsher punishments for those who don’t follow the new rules.

“Driving while distracted could lead to fines, points or even prosecution. For example, using your phone when behind the wheel could result in a £200 fine and up to 6 points on your license.

“So although the introduction of ultra cameras might be an annoyance to some, their purpose is to ultimately make our roads safer and to reduce the risk of drivers facing punishments as a result.”

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Manhunt launched after mysterious meat which made dogs unwell left in London park | News UK

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Manhunt launched after mysterious meat which made dogs unwell left in London park | News UK
Dog owners and dog walkers have said they’re on alert after the mysterious meat was found in Holland Park, west London, over the weekend (Picture: John Dunne/Metro)

Police have deployed extra patrols in parks across west London in the hunt for a suspected dog poisoner

Dog walkers have said they are ‘terrified’ after contaminated meat, which was found in Holland Park, west London, last week, left one pet dog seriously ill and killed two foxes.

The mystery poisoner also targeted Brompton Cemetery, triggering a Met police inquiry. 

They have warned pet owners of the danger as they trawl for key CCTV  footage that could unmask the poisoner. 

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A Met Police statement said: ‘It has been brought to our attention from several sources that meat (Chicken) has been left in both Holland Park and Brompton Cemetery. A dog has consumed this meat and become very unwell and two foxes have been found dead (with no obvious signs of injury).

‘We believe that this meat may contain toxins and has been left on purpose to either harm foxes or dogs. The meat has been seen over several days so please remain vigilant and do not allow your dogs to scavenge. In Brompton Cemetery dogs should remain on leads at all times. 

‘Any further reports or information please get in contact. Do share this with all dog owners and walkers.’ 

Dog walkers in Holland Park said they feared for their pooches and have been exchanging messages via a WhatsApp group on any suspicious food left in the park. 

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Professional dog walker Daniel Palfi with pictured with Neo. He says dog walkers are on high alert (Picture: John Dunne/Metro)
A police car is seen parked near the famous west London green space, which is home to the Kyoto Garden (Picture: John Dunne/Metro)
Parks police officers have been liaising with dog walkers and urging them to be extra vigilant (Picture: John Dunne/Metro)

They are also on the lookout for the poisoner, who they described as a ‘disgusting’ person. 

Professional dog walker Daniel Palfi told Metro: ‘We are on high alert. Obviously it’s very worrying and they need to catch this person. It’s disgusting what they are doing.

Latest London news

To get the latest news from the capital, visit Metro’s London news hub.

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‘It’s hard to imagine what kind of person could do this.’

Kailu Stabile, who was walking a Lurcher, called Moriarty, said: ‘Moriarty is not a big scavenger but to think that there is poison in the park is terrible.

‘We dog walkers communicate a lot and we are always on the lookout. It’s really horrible that anyone would do this.’

There is a police office in the park and they are trawling though any CCTV from around the area, including from the Belvedere restaurant which is in the grounds.

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Meanwhile they are deploying extra patrols with a police vehicle circling the park as the hunt for the poisoner continues.

Carlotta Pironti, who was walking her Cavapoo called Nelson, told Metro: ‘People are terrified. It’s difficult to stop the dogs going for any food left on the ground. Why someone would do something so evil I don’t know.’ 

The owner of lurchers Tarka and Raffy told Metro she feared for their safety (Picture: John Dunne/Metro)
The chicken was left in Holland Park which is a popular spot for dog walkers who are now on high alert (Picture: John Dunne/Metro)

Parks police officers have been liaising with dog walkers and urging them to be extra vigilant. 

In Brompton cemetery dog walkers and those visiting graves said the poisoning was an act of ‘desecration’. 

Steven Murray 41, who was waking his French Bulldog Betty through Brompton Cemetery, told Metro: ‘I hadn’t heard about this I think it’s horrible and very said that someone would do this. They I must hate animals it’s just very scary. Some people do leave food out for the foxes which is fair enough but if there’s stuff with poison we need to know. I’m going to be extra careful.’

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A woman who was walking her Lurcher dogs, Tarka and Raffy, told Metro:  ‘It’s really awful maybe it’s someone has personal vendetta or something. It’s very odd and quite scary.’ 

A pensioner who lives nearby said: ‘I come to the cemetery for some peace and quiet. To think someone is laying poison in a graveyard is desecration in my opinion.’

Anyone with information is asked to call police on 101. 

Get in touch with our news team by emailing us at webnews@metro.co.uk.

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The conflict in the Middle East has provided a true test of the resilience of the global economy

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The conflict in the Middle East has provided a true test of the resilience of the global economy

The world economy survived the shocks of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, which has had limited impact on economic growth. But the escalation of hostilities in the Middle East has transformed what had been, until early 2026, a surprisingly benign outlook into a far more uncertain one. It has created the ultimate test for how resilient the world economy really is.

Amid stalled ceasefire negotiations, the US president, Donald Trump, has threatened a blockade of vessels transiting through Iranian ports in the strait of Hormuz. This sent oil prices back up over US$100 (£74) a barrel. Meanwhile the current ceasefire is looking very shaky.

The key economic factor in this conflict is straightforward: the near-halting of shipments through the strait and the closure of energy infrastructure.

These elements have disrupted roughly one-fifth of global oil production and nearly another 20% of the world’s trade in liquefied natural gas (LNG). With little spare capacity elsewhere, the result has been a sharp and rapid surge in energy prices.

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Forecasts of price surges for benchmark oils

Prices for Brent and West Texas Intermediate could remain high for years. Data: CME.
Author provided (no reuse)

This is a classic energy price shock. The consequences for the world economy are predictable in direction but uncertain in magnitude. The latest interim economic outlook from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) projects global GDP growth at 2.9% in 2026. This is almost unchanged from its forecast before the war started.

But the OECD report also highlights the conflict’s expected consequences: energy exporters gain from improved terms of trade, while importers – including most of Europe, Japan, Korea, and much of emerging Asia – face a squeeze on real incomes.

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For example, US growth has been revised up by 0.3 percentage points (to 2%) while growth in the euro area and the UK have been revised down by 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points respectively.

When it comes to inflation, exporters and importers face similar cost increases. Inflation is expected to increase everywhere, with headline inflation in the group of G20 countries predicted to rise by 1.2 percentage points to 4%. The European Central Bank (ECB) has made similar predictions for growth and inflation.

But these estimates are based on specific (and possibly optimistic) assumptions about energy prices. In their baseline scenarios, energy prices are expected to peak below US$100 per barrel this quarter and begin falling gradually from the middle of the year – as priced in by oil futures markets.

And what about less benign scenarios such as a resumption of the conflict or Trump’s threatened blockade limiting traffic in the strait of Hormuz? Energy prices could stay higher for longer and would be unlikely to be eased by a temporary ceasefire.

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The here and now

The most immediate impact of the war on the global economy has been a sharp shortage of distillate fuels, particularly gasoil and jet fuel. This disruption comes at a time of seasonally high demand, driven by agricultural planting and the approach of peak holiday travel, when air traffic typically rises.

Gulf oil producers are key suppliers of these fuels to Asian markets, leaving countries such as South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Australia especially vulnerable to supply constraints.

Compounding the problem, crude oil from the Gulf is particularly suited to producing jet fuel and diesel, and cannot easily be replaced by refining alternative grades of oil. As a result, distillate prices in affected markets have surged dramatically, in some cases rising by as much as 200%.

Further blockage of the strait will starve the global market of at least 10% of its demand. This would result in a “demand destruction” (the curtailment of demand for road and air travel in particular) that can only be achieved through raised prices.

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If the war in Iran were to go on just for another couple of months, prices for Brent could reach US$120 per barrel. Six months of conflict could see prices exceed US$200 a barrel. This is because supply losses are cumulative – as commercial and strategic reserves are depleted, the supply risk increases.

Oil price projections if the hostilities continue

graph showing scenarios for oil prices if the conflict resumes

There’s no immediate relief on the horizon for oil prices. Data: RystadEnergy.
Author provided (no reuse)

The ECB’s March 2026 projections for the euro area incorporate some of these scenarios. For example, in what it calls an adverse scenario where oil prices peak at US$120 and decline slowly, economic growth in the euro area becomes negative for 2026.

And in its most pessimistic scenario, oil prices shoot even higher (US$140), which results in a deeper recession and inflation reaching more than 6%.

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The last two scenarios are the perfect example of the stagflationary world that policymakers dread: contracting output and high inflation. In this environment, the levers that they have at their disposal are severely constrained.

Central banks face a classic dilemma: raising interest rates to contain inflation risks slowing growth even more. But cutting them to encourage spending and faster growth risks increasing prices at precisely the wrong moment. The ECB’s data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach is the right posture, but it offers no easy exits.

Fiscal policy faces its own challenges. Governments will be tempted to protect households and firms from higher energy costs, as they did after the 2022 energy crisis. Some targeted support for the most vulnerable would be legitimate and necessary, but broad subsidies that suppress energy prices send the wrong signal.

Countries that import energy have become poorer, and policies that negate this fact will only sustain energy demand at a time when the opposite approach is required. Put simply, everyone needs to be more efficient or use less energy. And let’s not forget that governments, because of high levels of debt, now have even less fiscal room to support the economy through this crisis. With no clear path out of the hostilities, the resilience of the global economy is facing a very tough test.

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