Election expert claims John Swinney’s rivals have “less than 1% chance” of becoming First Minister

EXCLUSIVE: The expert claimed the chances of a non-SNP politician entering Bute House after May 7th are negligible.

Polling guru Sir John Curtice says there is a “less than 1% chance” of one of John Swinney’s rivals becoming First Minister after the election.

The expert said the SNP leader’s chances of staying on were so high because of his party’s strong lead in the constituencies.

The SNP continues to have a strong poll lead over Labour and Reform with less than two weeks to go.

Swinney’s party are in line to do well in the 73 constituencies, while rivals battle it out on the regional lists.

Labour insiders also admit the surge for Reform is harming their chances of winning seats off the SNP.

Speaking to the Record, Curtice said: “I’m saying there is a less than 1% chance of anybody other than John Swinney becoming First Minister.

“Why am I saying that? Well, because the SNP are something like 17 points ahead of everybody else on the constituency. QED.”

“It’s the way the system works. If you are that far ahead and you’ve got a geographically evenly spread vote, you are bound to pick up the vast bulk of constituency seats.”

READ MORE: Scottish Lib Dem leader likened indyref2 to referendum on capital punishment

OPINION

Paul Hutcheon

One poll at the weekend showed a narrow majority of pro-UK MSPs could be returned, but even in these circumstances Curtice said:

“It’s still undoubtedly the case that you are talking about a minority SNP Government.”

He also claimed an attempt to install Sarwar could result in parliament failing to elect a First Minister and Scots going “back to the polls again”.

However, a new poll by Survation for the Ballot Box Scotland website has found support for the SNP is falling.

But the snapshot still throws up a pro-independence majority of MSPs, which would be enough to re-elect John Swinney as First Minister.

Swinney is fighting for an outright SNP majority – 65 MSPs – which he says would trigger indyref2.

The SNP is on 35% in the constituencies – no change from a previous Survation poll – while Reform and Labour are tied on 20% each.

The Tories were in fourth place on 13%, followed by the Lib Dems on 10% and the Greens on 1% – they are only contesting a small number of constituencies.

On the regional Lists, the SNP was on 29% – down 3 points compared to a previous poll by the same company – with Reform on 19% and Labour on 17%.

The Tories came in at 13%, the Green polled 11% and the Lib Dems 8%.

The all-important seat projection puts the SNP on 57, a net loss of seven compared to the 2021 election and significantly short of a majority.

Reform would be second with 21 MSPs, Labour third with 18, the Tories on 13, Greens on 11 and the Lib Dems on nine.

With the Greens and the SNP commanding 68 MSPs between them, such an outcome would almost certainly result in Swinney going back to Bute House.

The poll spells bad news for Labour as their campaign is based on framing the contest as a two horse race with the SNP.

A Scottish Labour spokesperson said: “This election will be decided by the people of Scotland on May 7.

“While commentators speculate, Scottish Labour is working to earn the trust of the Scottish people and demonstrate that we can deliver the change our country so badly needs.”