Experts react to the Reform surge and Labour losses

The 2026 elections are shaping up to be a seismic moment for politics in the UK. Across England’s local elections, Labour is facing up to a devastating result while Reform UK has picked up hundreds of seats. Our panel covered it all, with context, analysis and expert insights.

Big wins for Reform, but can it deliver?

Alia Middleton, Senior Lecturer in Politics, University of Surrey

Reform UK’s surge in areas such as Newcastle-under-Lyme indicates that the party has sustained the support it started to gather in the Midlands and the north of England at the 2024 general election.

The party has rather uniquely demonstrated an ability to steer voters away from both Conservatives and Labour. Gaining councillors and nibbling away at Labour support in the party’s heartlands in Hartlepool and Burnley shows that Labour’s reclaiming of its red wall at the 2024 general election may only be a temporary reinstatement.

Alongside the collapse and prolonged recovery of the Conservatives, Reform seems to be harvesting the party’s votes – take Essex County Council, which Reform now controls, for example. This has been either under Conservative control or no overall control since 1974. In 2021, Reform UK barely registered, but today it has 42 councillors. Several members of the shadow cabinet – including Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch – have seats in Essex. But now Reform seems to be consolidating its support in the county.

One upcoming issue for Reform, however, is that voters will soon expect delivery. Reform has shown it can win votes in local elections but the more councillors it has, the more it needs to show that it can function not just as a campaign machine, but as a professional party that can keep its promises and deliver real results.

Plaid seized an opportunity to demolish Labour in Wales

Marc Collinson, Lecturer in Political History, Bangor University

Wales’ long-dominant Labour Party has been drastically diminished, while Plaid Cymru – a party that has spent a century as a secondary force – has replaced Labour as that party did to the Lloyd George’s Liberals. However, political realignment in 2026 has also seen a transformation on the political right.

While Reform’s increase in support has not led to it becoming the largest party, the usurping of the Conservatives has ensured that Wales’ political landscape now looks radically different. But again, we should take the long view in light of major changes in the electoral system, where long-standing advantages and alliances disappeared overnight.

A parallel was the aftermath of major local government reforms in 1973. Liberals capitalised on the dual unpopularity of Harold Wilson’’s Labour and Ted Heath’s Conservatives to seize control of the city council in Liverpool. Voters had the opportunity to cast a meaningful protest vote and took their chance. As we approach the middle of this UK parliament, perhaps these are a similar protest. Time well tell.

A new system – and a new order – in Wales

Stephen Clear, Lecturer in Constitutional and Administrative Law, Bangor University

It is hard to overstate the significance of the new electoral system for the Senedd. This election was not just about choosing politicians, but rather operating under a fundamentally different political structure. That difference was exemplified by Labour conceding, very early in the day, that after decades of dominance in Wales, it will not secure a victory this time.

And for the first time in the history of Welsh devolution, a first minister has been unseated in another devastating blow for Eluned Morgan and Labour.

À lire aussi :
After more than a century, Labour has lost Wales

The old mixed system, of 40 constituency seats elected by first-past-the-post plus 20 regional “top-up” seats (60 MSs in total), could produce something close to one-party dominance. Labour often emerged as the governing party even without a majority because its geographic concentration in South Wales translated efficiently into seats in the Senedd.

The new 96-seat structure, with all seats elected proportionally using multi-member constituencies, makes one-party dominance harder. Now parties get seat totals much closer to their actual vote share. It’s rarer to secure a seat for narrowly finishing ahead.

Practically, this means Wales is likely to be entering a multi-party bargaining era, or prominent coalitions, like other devolved nations and local European parliaments. Consequently, rather than headlines about who won, a more appropriate take in Wales may be “who can govern?”

Green wins can’t compete with Reform breakthroughs

Louise Thompson, Senior Lecturer in Politics, University of Manchester

This would be considered an exceptional electoral moment for the Greens in almost any other circumstances, but their wins pale in comparison to the huge gains made by Reform UK. It was still a good day for the party and shows how much the electorate is looking for alternatives to the two main parties. The Greens have continued the momentum they gained following Hannah Spencer’s success in the Gorton and Denton byelection.

The party’s first mayoral seats with Zoë Garbett in Hackney and Liam Shrivastava in Lewisham, plus its first ever constituency seat at Holyrood are a big step forward. The wins present a real opportunity for the Greens to show that they have moved on from being a small challenger party. They no longer need to focus on building credibility as an electoral option – they’ve shown that they can break through that barrier. The question now is whether they can gain people’s longer-term trust and deliver on their electoral promises.

Experience from their other councils like Brighton suggest that they may need to tighten their rein on their councillors to do this. Perhaps more importantly, results like those we’ve seen in Reading and Plymouth, where they have pushed Labour into second place in the popular vote, demonstrate that they are being seen as a credible alternative nationally to Labour on the left. Labour MPs in these areas are now sitting on very shaky foundations for the second half of this parliament.

Few big surprises emerge from Scotland’s ‘scunnered’ vote

Murray Leith, Professor of Political Science, University of the West of Scotland

In Scotland the polls seemed to be right. The SNP will be be the largest party but will not have a majority. We saw low turnout in many areas, although with some limited, high-turnout, hard-fought constituency battles. Holyrood continues to be a multi-party system with a dominant SNP, but there have been some areas of change.

Nothing shows this better than the Greens winning their first constituency seats (and beating former cabinet minister Angus Robertson into third place), the SNP taking the long-held Liberal Democrat stronghold of the Shetland Islands, and Labour taking Na h-Eileanan an Iar from the SNP. And then you have Reform UK, which has gained regional seats across Scotland. The rise of the Greens and Reform are not at the expense of the SNP, but of Labour and the Conservatives. But the SNP vote share is down too.

What does the result mean? Pundits are calling it the “scunnered” election, a Scottish word that can mean frustrated, irritated or exhausted. It seems suitable. So, what next, Scotland – more of the same? It is certainly a very mixed picture, with some change. Just no change in government.

From patchwork to pointillist painting

Tim Bale, Professor of Politics, Queen Mary, University of London

English local elections involve county, borough and district councils, as well as mayoralties. They take place in some parts of the country but not in others, and in some places all of the seats on a council are up for grabs, while in others it’s only a third.

No wonder, then, that one of the go-to clichés that politicians and pundits routinely reach for on a day like today is “patchwork”. Yet even that may not do justice to the complex reality now that we have entered the era of five- rather than two-party politics.

A better analogy now might be a pointillist painting – lots of coloured dots that resolve themselves into a complete scene as the picture gradually takes shape. Much of what we’ll see in the initial analysis – especially when it comes to those spinning party lines – will be a tale, to quote Shakespeare’s Macbeth, “told by an idiot, full of sound and fury. Signifying nothing.”

Once we know what the myriad contests fought on Thursday mean for the parties’ national vote shares, we’ll be better able to tell whether what we’ve seen in opinion polls was borne out at the ballot box. What I’ll be looking for in particular is whether Reform UK, for all that it has won a huge number of seats, has actually stalled slightly compared to last year, and whether Tory leader Kemi Badenoch’s much-hyped recent progress has made much difference to her party’s performance.

What next for Starmer and Labour?

Karl Pike, Senior Lecturer in Public Policy, Queen Mary, University of London

Keir Starmer is in a kind of lame duck political position – very few people think the prime minister will lead Labour into the next general election. His authority is gradually reducing, and losing these elections around the UK will reduce it further. On that, most people within the Labour party can agree. But they cannot agree on how to respond, and the options Labour MPs have for changing their leader are complicated.

Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham could win enough support within the parliamentary Labour party (PLP) to challenge Starmer. Or he could succeed Starmer if he stepped aside, and win a majority of Labour members and affiliated supporters in the event of a contest. But the Burnham option requires some choreography that could be disrupted. Burnham is not an MP, and could still be blocked from standing by Labour’s national executive committee. Any Labour leadership contest would have to follow a successful byelection victory for Labour and for Burnham.

Angela Rayner continues to be popular in the party, but there are lingering doubts after her exit from government over her tax affairs. Wes Streeting could probably only become leader if the PLP opted to nominate just one politician, removing the need for a contest. If any candidate from the PLP’s “soft-left” stood against Streeting, I think Streeting would struggle to win.

So the who, when and how all remain up in the air. Meanwhile, the UK government has important jobs to do, all of which require people to focus on governing, rather than party management. It is not clear that the PLP has a majority view on what a different government direction should look like.

I cannot predict what will happen next. It seems unlikely that Starmer can continue to lead Labour into next year and beyond. But much of the discussion around a change of leadership seems to involve a political high-wire act. This is why, for some time now, Labour MPs have been unhappy – but unsure of what to do about it.

The death of two-party politics? Tactical voting means we can’t say that for certain

Thomas Lockwood, PhD Candidate in Politics, York St John University

Early results from England’s local elections might suggest increasing fragmentation in the party system, but “five-party politics” is better understood as an emerging pattern than a settled reality. What stands out most is not a clean realignment, but continued tactical voting and localised switching. Voters are choosing between multiple viable parties depending on context. This might be, for example, prioritising immigration and national discontent in red wall towns, or focusing on environmental concerns and housing in urban and university areas, rather than shifting permanently between fixed blocs.

For the first time in nearly 50 years, Labour has lost Tameside Council in Greater Manchester, which has fallen to no overall control. This is significant as it’s the council area for the constituency of Labour’s former deputy leader Angela Rayner.

On its own, it’s not a seat-threatening result for the next general election, but it is a serious long-term warning sign for Labour’s heartlands. Combined with the wider picture of Reform gaining hundreds of councillors, it shows that the “disrupter” dynamic is structural, not fleeting. But whether these localised surges harden into a durable five-party system, or remain heavily shaped by tactical voting and specific local contexts, will only become clearer in time.

So far, however, Reform will be feeling very encouraged by the state of play.

The turnout story – a win for democracy

Hannah Bunting, Senior Lecturer in Quantitative British Politics, University of Exeter

A really interesting trend in the English local elections is one that is positive for democracy. Turnout appears to have been noticeably higher, possibly by up to eight points on average overall and doubling in some areas. Although Reform is winning in the lowest-turnout areas, reflective of the geography and demographics they are targeting, wards where Reform are winning saw the biggest increases in turnout.

This indicates that Reform is motivating supporters who don’t usually cast a ballot in local elections – however the increase might also be due to an anti-Reform vote. Either way, it appears voters’ lack of participation in recent years was partly because they did not feel that had something to vote for (or against). For some, that has now changed.

It looks to be the opposite story for turnout in Scotland. Coming from a high in 2021, average turnout fell. This may be a further sign of the SNP’s unpopularity, or a sophisticated electorate who understand how their voting system works. It was clear that the incumbent party was going to win, but with reduced enthusiasm from voters. Both are reasons to stay home – with neither jeopardy nor positivity as motivation.

The challanges for Plaid governing in Wales

Bettina Petersohn, Senior Lecturer in Politics, Swansea University

The question now is: can Plaid Cymru govern alone or does it need support from other parties in the Senedd? Depending on where the support is coming from, Plaid might struggle to please everyone.

Data from the Welsh Election Study indicates that while Plaid and the Greens are viewed positively, sentiments towards Labour are mainly negative. So a support agreement between Plaid and Labour may be met with scepticism from both their voters.

Bad news for female representation?

Ceri Fowler, Career Development Fellow in Comparative Politics, University of Oxford

These results suggest that women’s representation in local government will decline. Research undertaken before the election showed that the proportion of women and non-binary candidates varied substantially by party. Overall, around 31% of candidates at this election were women or non-binary, but for the Greens and Labour this is more than 40%. For Reform UK, only 23% of its candidates are women or non-binary.

The success of Reform at this set of local elections, and the decline of Labour, therefore means that even fewer women are likely to be in local government than there were before. If Reform also sees similar success in Wales and Scotland, there may be fewer women in the devolved parliaments too. This is the opposite of the 2024 general election, where the success of Labour led to historic highs in women’s representation. These results show, yet again, how women’s representation is conditional on the success of left-leaning parties.