Far-right AfD set for historic win in crucial German state election, exit polls show

The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party is set for a historic regional election win in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt – in a blow for German chancellor Friedrich Merz.

Exit polls have placed the AfD party at 44.5 per cent, up ⁠from 20.8 per cent in 2021. Mr Merz’s CDU fell to 18.5 per cent from 37.1 per cent in 2021, a setback in a state the conservatives have governed since 2002.

If the full results, expected on Monday, show that the AfD has secured a majority, the party could form its first regional government in what would be a seismic moment in post-war German history. However, given that most ‌parties have ⁠ruled out joining ⁠an AfD-led coalition, it will depend on which other parties pass the 5 per cent threshold needed to gain seats in the regional parliament and whether the CDU could form a majority coalition to block the AfD.

The party’s victory in the election for the state government represents a historic shift in German politics after years of cooperation between the other parties to keep the hard right out of power.

The AfD seeks to restrict immigration, quit the Euro and restore ties with Russia as most of Europe rallies around Ukraine. Germany’s own intelligence service has designated the party as ‘extremist right wing’.

Ulrich Siegmund, lead candidate for the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt, hailed the projections, saying: “We have made history in this country”.

He said that he was open to work with partners following the exit poll results, adding: “We extend a hand to all democratic forces that wish to pursue better policies”. But he also said that topics including migration and domestic security were non-negotiable.

This win is the biggest prize in the party’s 13-year history, at a time of widespread discontent with an unpopular national government that has yet to persuade voters it can get the country’s sluggish economy moving.

Victory for the AfD is also a symbolic blow to Mr Merz, whose centre-right party has led Saxony-Anhalt for 24 years.

A CDU politician has described his party’s performance as a “historic defeat” and called it a “black day”.

Sepp Muller, deputy leader of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group, told German broadcaster ZDF that there can now be “no business as usual”.

The AfD national co-leaders, Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla, said this week that AfD “wants to implement the law of the land – for example with a view to illegal migration – and ensure that Germany remains worth living in”.

They decried other parties’ records and argued in a statement that an absolute majority for AfD is “almost the only chance to change course”.

Following the poll results on Sunday, Ms Weidel said that the AfD had a clear government mandate and would talk to all parties.

“No matter the outcome of tomorrow’s election, we have already made history,” said its candidate for governor, Ulrich Siegmund, at a final rally on Saturday evening.

“Because what we have started here in Saxony-Anhalt — that is currently sweeping across all of Germany — can no longer be stopped,” he told the crowd in the state capital, Magdeburg.

The AfD plans to push schools and cultural institutions towards more traditional values, curb immigration and overhaul public broadcasting.

Mr Siegmund arrived to cast his vote in his hometown of Tangermünde on a blue Simson moped, greeted by throngs of excited fans, and ruled out coalition talks with other ​parties.

An AfD-led state would launch a crackdown on migration with a task force set up to coordinate quicker deportations.

The children of refugees would be placed in separate classes at school to prevent what the party claims are “stresses” on the other children from being around different cultures.

Meanwhile, children with disabilities would no longer be taught in the same classroom as those without, instead being sent to special schools.

Schools would also be banned from flying rainbow flags, and the government would exhaust “all legal avenues” to limit Islamic expression.