Farage’s by-election victory won’t stop questions about finances

“This time last year Farage had the highest approval of the main party leaders,” says pollster Luke Tryl from the organisation More in Common. “Yet earlier this month he fell to his worst score since the general election.”

“What will worry Farage is not only that his negative approvals have risen, which may signal greater willingness to vote tactically against the Reform leader, but there are also fewer people expressing a positive view suggesting an erosion in his base,” Tryl says.

More in Common’s research suggests around 80% of voters are aware of questions around Nigel Farage’s finances, but opinions on them are mixed.

“Farage’s strongest supporters often take the view it’s an ‘establishment stitch up’,” says Tryl. “And for his opponents, it is a further reason to dislike him.”

Farage has managed to professionalise Reform UK, secure significant funding, and recruit high-profile figures like Robert Jenrick and Zia Yusuf to prove that the third political party he has led during his long career is not just a one-man-band.

He may be bullish after this risky (and self-imposed) by-election battle, but his rivals are framing it as a waste of money and a personal embarrassment.

Ultimately it is voters nationally, and not in this corner of Essex, who will decide if this by-election will mark a downward shift in Farage’s brand, or whether it be a springboard towards achieving his bigger aspiration of getting to Downing Street.