Former DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson is likely to receive a prison sentence measured in decades rather than years when he returns to court later this year, with legal experts suggesting a term of between 12 and 20 years is the most probable outcome.
Donaldson, 63, was remanded into custody immediately after being convicted by a jury at Newry Crown Court of 18 historical sexual offences, including rape, committed against two girls over a period spanning more than two decades. At the conclusion of the trial, Judge Paul Ramsey warned that a “lengthy sentence of imprisonment” was inevitable.
While Northern Ireland has no formal sentencing guidelines equivalent to those used in England and Wales for these historical offences, previous Court of Appeal decisions provide a clear indication of the range available to the judge.
One senior Northern Ireland lawyer, who has examined comparable appellate cases, told Belfast Live the combination of a rape conviction, multiple victims, 18 offences and the prolonged period over which the abuse occurred places Donaldson’s case towards the upper end of sentences imposed for historical child sexual abuse.
“I think the most probable range is in the region of 12 to 20 years,” the lawyer said. “I think that’s likely to be structured as an extended custodial sentence, with a significant period in custody followed by an extended licence period.”
The lawyer said the inclusion of a rape conviction alongside numerous indecent assault convictions substantially increased the likely sentence.
“I don’t think there’ll be a life sentence,” they added. “Having looked at the Court of Appeal authorities, I don’t think it reaches that threshold.”
However, they stressed that a pre-sentence report, due to be prepared before Donaldson returns to court on 25th September, could influence the final outcome.
“If he were assessed as dangerous or presenting a high likelihood of reoffending, then that could aggravate the sentence further. But because of his age and the historic nature of the offences, an extended custodial sentence is more probable.”
After considering comparable Court of Appeal decisions involving historical rape and prolonged child sexual abuse, Judge Ramsey is likely to consider a global sentence somewhere between 16 and 20 years before deciding whether an extended custodial sentence is appropriate.
Unlike England and Wales, where judges can refer to Sentencing Council guidelines, Northern Ireland judges dealing with historical offences rely heavily on previous Court of Appeal judgments.
The most serious offence for which Donaldson was convicted, rape, carried a maximum sentence of life imprisonment at the time the offence was committed. His remaining convictions for indecent assault and gross indecency each carry lower statutory maximums, although judges sentence the offending as a whole rather than simply adding together the maximum penalty for every conviction.
Instead, the court will apply what lawyers describe as the “totality principle”, ensuring the overall sentence properly reflects the entirety of the offending without becoming disproportionate. In cases involving multiple victims, judges often treat offences against each victim separately before standing back to assess whether the overall sentence is just.
Several aggravating factors are likely to weigh heavily in Donaldson’s case. These include the number of victims, their young ages when the abuse began, the prolonged period over which the offending took place, the abuse of trust, the total of 18 convictions and the inclusion of rape.
The senior lawyer also pointed to Donaldson maintaining his innocence throughout the proceedings and requiring both complainants to give evidence at trial.
“There was no remorse or admission, and the victims were put through a trial, which is recognised as an aggravating factor,” they said.
Potential mitigating factors are far more limited. Donaldson has no prior criminal convictions, and his legal team is expected to emphasise his age, now 63, during the sentencing hearing.
However, because he denied the allegations and was convicted following a trial, he is not entitled to the substantial reduction in sentence available to defendants who plead guilty at an early stage.
The pre-sentence report ordered by Judge Ramsey will also be significant. As well as assessing Donaldson personally, it will help the court determine whether he should be regarded as a dangerous offender, something which could result in an extended custodial sentence.
Under that type of sentence, an offender serves a custodial term before remaining on licence in the community for an extended period after release.
Whatever sentence is ultimately imposed, Donaldson will also be subject to mandatory notification requirements as a convicted sex offender and is expected to face additional restrictions through a Sexual Harm Prevention Order.
The case returns for a pre-sentencing hearing at Newry Crown Court on 25th September. Until then, Donaldson remains in custody at Maghaberry Prison following his conviction.
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